Bayesian neural network approach for determining the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair

This article proposes a Bayesian neural network approach to determine the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair surgery. The target of proposed technique is to determine which patients have high chance to re-intervention (high-risk patients) and which are not (low-risk patients) after 5 years of the surgery. Two censored datasets relating to the clinical conditions of aortic aneurysms have been collected from two different vascular centers in the United Kingdom. A Bayesian network was first employed to solve the censoring issue in the datasets. Then, a back propagation neural network model was built using the uncensored data of the first center to predict re-intervention on the second center and classify the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for each group of patients separately to show whether there is a significant difference between the two risk groups. Finally, the logrank test was applied to determine whether the neural network model was capable of predicting and distinguishing between the two risk groups. The results show that the Bayesian network used for uncensoring the data has improved the performance of the neural networks that were built for the two centers separately. More importantly, the neural network that was trained with uncensored data of the first center was able to predict and discriminate between groups of low risk and high risk of re-intervention after 5 years of endovascular aortic aneurysm surgery at center 2 (p = 0.0037 in the logrank test).

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

We compare two methods in order to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture is evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

This paper compares two methods to predict in°ation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Description and training of neural network dynamics

Attractor properties of a popular discrete-time neural network model are illustrated through numerical simulations. The most complex dynamics is found to occur within particular ranges of parameters controlling the symmetry and magnitude of the weight matrix. A small network model is observed to produce fixed points, limit cycles, mode-locking, the Ruelle-Takens route to chaos, and the period-doubling route to chaos. Training algorithms for tuning this dynamical behaviour are discussed. Training can be an easy or difficult task, depending whether the problem requires the use of temporal information distributed over long time intervals. Such problems require training algorithms which can handle hidden nodes. The most prominent of these algorithms, back propagation through time, solves the temporal credit assignment problem in a way which can work only if the relevant information is distributed locally in time. The Moving Targets algorithm works for the more general case, but is computationally intensive, and prone to local minima.

A combined neural network and DEA for measuring efficiency of large scale datasets

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used methods in the measurement of the efficiency and productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs). DEA for a large dataset with many inputs/outputs would require huge computer resources in terms of memory and CPU time. This paper proposes a neural network back-propagation Data Envelopment Analysis to address this problem for the very large scale datasets now emerging in practice. Neural network requirements for computer memory and CPU time are far less than that needed by conventional DEA methods and can therefore be a useful tool in measuring the efficiency of large datasets. Finally, the back-propagation DEA algorithm is applied to five large datasets and compared with the results obtained by conventional DEA.

A constructive learning algorithm based on back-propagation

There are been a resurgence of interest in the neural networks field in recent years, provoked in part by the discovery of the properties of multi-layer networks. This interest has in turn raised questions about the possibility of making neural network behaviour more adaptive by automating some of the processes involved. Prior to these particular questions, the process of determining the parameters and network architecture required to solve a given problem had been a time consuming activity. A number of researchers have attempted to address these issues by automating these processes, concentrating in particular on the dynamic selection of an appropriate network architecture.The work presented here specifically explores the area of automatic architecture selection; it focuses upon the design and implementation of a dynamic algorithm based on the Back-Propagation learning algorithm. The algorithm constructs a single hidden layer as the learning process proceeds using individual pattern error as the basis of unit insertion. This algorithm is applied to several problems of differing type and complexity and is found to produce near minimal architectures that are shown to have a high level of generalisation ability.

Numerical analysis of artificial neural network and volterra-based nonlinear equalizers for coherent optical OFDM

One major drawback of coherent optical orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) that hitherto remains unsolved is its vulnerability to nonlinear fiber effects due to its high peak-to-average power ratio. Several digital signal processing techniques have been investigated for the compensation of fiber nonlinearities, e.g., digital back-propagation, nonlinear pre- and post-compensation and nonlinear equalizers (NLEs) based on the inverse Volterra-series transfer function (IVSTF). Alternatively, nonlinearities can be mitigated using nonlinear decision classifiers such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) based on a multilayer perceptron. In this paper, ANN-NLE is presented for a 16QAM CO-OFDM system. The capability of the proposed approach to compensate the fiber nonlinearities is numerically demonstrated for up to 100-Gb/s and over 1000km and compared to the benchmark IVSTF-NLE. Results show that in terms of Q-factor, for 100-Gb/s at 1000km of transmission, ANN-NLE outperforms linear equalization and IVSTF-NLE by 3.2dB and 1dB, respectively.

Adaptive back-propagation in on-line learning of multilayer networks

An adaptive back-propagation algorithm is studied and compared with gradient descent (standard back-propagation) for on-line learning in two-layer neural networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units. Within a statistical mechanics framework, both numerical studies and a rigorous analysis show that the adaptive back-propagation method results in faster training by breaking the symmetry between hidden units more efficiently and by providing faster convergence to optimal generalization than gradient descent.

On-line learning with adaptive back-propagation in two-layer networks

An adaptive back-propagation algorithm parameterized by an inverse temperature 1/T is studied and compared with gradient descent (standard back-propagation) for on-line learning in two-layer neural networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units. Within a statistical mechanics framework, we analyse these learning algorithms in both the symmetric and the convergence phase for finite learning rates in the case of uncorrelated teachers of similar but arbitrary length T. These analyses show that adaptive back-propagation results generally in faster training by breaking the symmetry between hidden units more efficiently and by providing faster convergence to optimal generalization than gradient descent.

A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

Neural network DEA for measuring the efficiency of mutual funds

Efficiency in the mutual fund (MF), is one of the issues that has attracted many investors in countries with advanced financial market for many years. Due to the need for frequent study of MF's efficiency in short-term periods, investors need a method that not only has high accuracy, but also high speed. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is proven to be one of the most widely used methods in the measurement of the efficiency and productivity of decision making units (DMUs). DEA for a large dataset with many inputs/outputs would require huge computer resources in terms of memory and CPU time. This paper uses neural network back-ropagation DEA in measurement of mutual funds efficiency and shows the requirements, in the proposed method, for computer memory and CPU time are far less than that needed by conventional DEA methods and can therefore be a useful tool in measuring the efficiency of a large set of MFs. Copyright © 2014 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

The time dimension of neural network models

This review attempts to provide an insightful perspective on the role of time within neural network models and the use of neural networks for problems involving time. The most commonly used neural network models are defined and explained giving mention to important technical issues but avoiding great detail. The relationship between recurrent and feedforward networks is emphasised, along with the distinctions in their practical and theoretical abilities. Some practical examples are discussed to illustrate the major issues concerning the application of neural networks to data with various types of temporal structure, and finally some highlights of current research on the more difficult types of problems are presented.

A novel neural network technique for exploratory data analysis

This paper surveys the context of feature extraction by neural network approaches, and compares and contrasts their behaviour as prospective data visualisation tools in a real world problem. We also introduce and discuss a hybrid approach which allows us to control the degree of discriminatory and topographic information in the extracted feature space.

Practical assessment of neural network applications

This paper reports the initial results of a joint research project carried out by Aston University and Lloyd's Register to develop a practical method of assessing neural network applications. A set of assessment guidelines for neural network applications were developed and tested on two applications. These case studies showed that it is practical to assess neural networks in a statistical pattern recognition framework. However there is need for more standardisation in neural network technology and a wider takeup of good development practice amongst the neural network community.