Knowledge based improvement:simulation and artificial intelligence for identifying and improving human decision-making in an operations systems

The performance of most operations systems is significantly affected by the interaction of human decision-makers. A methodology, based on the use of visual interactive simulation (VIS) and artificial intelligence (AI), is described that aims to identify and improve human decision-making in operations systems. The methodology, known as 'knowledge-based improvement' (KBI), elicits knowledge from a decision-maker via a VIS and then uses AI methods to represent decision-making. By linking the VIS and AI representation, it is possible to predict the performance of the operations system under different decision-making strategies and to search for improved strategies. The KBI methodology is applied to the decision-making surrounding unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant.

Modelling and improving maintenance decisions:Having foresight with simulation and artificial intelligence

Machine breakdowns are one of the main sources of disruption and throughput fluctuation in highly automated production facilities. One element in reducing this disruption is ensuring that the maintenance team responds correctly to machine failures. It is, however, difficult to determine the current practice employed by the maintenance team, let alone suggest improvements to it. 'Knowledge based improvement' is a methodology that aims to address this issue, by (a) eliciting knowledge on current practice, (b) evaluating that practice and (c) looking for improvements. The methodology, based on visual interactive simulation and artificial intelligence methods, and its application to a Ford engine assembly facility are described. Copyright © 2002 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

We compare two methods in order to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture is evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

This paper compares two methods to predict in°ation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Words and intelligence I:selected papers by Yorick Wilks

Yorick Wilks is a central figure in the fields of Natural Language Processing and Artificial Intelligence. His influence extends to many areas and includes contributions to Machines Translation, word sense disambiguation, dialogue modeling and Information Extraction. This book celebrates the work of Yorick Wilks in the form of a selection of his papers which are intended to reflect the range and depth of his work. The volume accompanies a Festschrift which celebrates his contribution to the fields of Computational Linguistics and Artificial Intelligence. The papers include early work carried out at Cambridge University, descriptions of groundbreaking work on Machine Translation and Preference Semantics as well as more recent works on belief modeling and computational semantics. The selected papers reflect Yorick’s contribution to both practical and theoretical aspects of automatic language processing.

Development of performance models for co-operative information systems in an organisational context

The thesis reports of a study into the effect upon organisations of co-operative information systems (CIS) incorporating flexible communications, group support and group working technologies. A review of the literature leads to the development of a model of effect based upon co-operative business tasks. CIS have the potential to change how co-operative business tasks are carried out and their principal effect (or performance) may therefore be evaluated by determining to what extent they are being employed to perform these tasks. A significant feature of CIS use identified is the extent to which they may be designed to fulfil particular tasks, or by contrast, may be applied creatively by users in an emergent fashion to perform tasks. A research instrument is developed using a survey questionnaire to elicit users judgements of the extent to which a CIS is employed to fulfil a range of co-operative tasks. This research instrument is applied to a longitudinal study of Novell GroupWise introduction at Northamptonshire County Council during which qualitative as well as quantitative data were gathered. A method of analysis of questionnaire results using principles from fuzzy mathematics and artificial intelligence is developed and demonstrated. Conclusions from the longitudinal study include the importance of early experiences in setting patterns for use for CIS, the persistence of patterns of use over time and the dominance of designed usage of the technology over emergent use.

Ecological studies on river pollution control

This collection of papers records a series of studies, carried out over a period of some 50 years, on two aspects of river pollution control - the prevention of pollution by sewage biological filtration and the monitoring of river pollution by biological surveillance. The earlier studies were carried out to develop methods of controlling flies which bred in the filters and caused serious nuisance and possible public health hazard, when they dispersed to surrounding villages. Although the application of insecticides proved effective as an alleviate measure, because it resulted in only a temporary disturbance of the ecological balance, it was considered ecologically unsound as a long-term solution. Subsequent investigations showed that the fly populations in filters were largely determined by the amount of food available to the grazing larval stage in the form of filter film. It was also established that the winter deterioration in filter performance was due to the excessive accumulation of film. Subsequent investigations were therefore carried out to determine the factors responsible for the accumulation of film in different types of filter. Methods of filtration which were considered to control film accumulation by increasing the flushing action of the sewage, were found to control fungal film by creating nutrient limiting conditions. In some filters increasing the hydraulic flushing reduced the grazing fauna population in the surface layers and resulted in an increase in film. The results of these investigations were successfully applied in modifying filters and in the design of a Double Filtration process. These studies on biological filters lead to the conclusion that they should be designed and operated as ecological systems and not merely as hydraulic ones. Studies on the effects of sewage effluents on Birmingham streams confirmed the findings of earlier workers justifying their claim for using biological methods for detecting and assessing river pollution. Further ecological studies showed the sensitivity of benthic riffle communities to organic pollution. Using experimental channels and laboratory studies the different environmental conditions associated with organic pollution were investigated. The degree and duration of the oxygen depletion during the dark hours were found to be a critical factor. The relative tolerance of different taxa to other pollutants, such as ammonia, differed. Although colonisation samplers proved of value in sampling difficult sites, the invertebrate data generated were not suitable for processing as any of the commonly used biotic indexes. Several of the papers, which were written by request for presentation at conferences etc., presented the biological viewpoint on river pollution and water quality issues at the time and advocated the use of biological methods. The information and experiences gained in these investigations was used as the "domain expert" in the development of artificial intelligence systems for use in the biological surveillance of river water quality.

Semantic linking through spaces for cyber-physical-socio intelligence:a methodology

Humans consciously and subconsciously establish various links, emerge semantic images and reason in mind, learn linking effect and rules, select linked individuals to interact, and form closed loops through links while co-experiencing in multiple spaces in lifetime. Machines are limited in these abilities although various graph-based models have been used to link resources in the cyber space. The following are fundamental limitations of machine intelligence: (1) machines know few links and rules in the physical space, physiological space, psychological space, socio space and mental space, so it is not realistic to expect machines to discover laws and solve problems in these spaces; and, (2) machines can only process pre-designed algorithms and data structures in the cyber space. They are limited in ability to go beyond the cyber space, to learn linking rules, to know the effect of linking, and to explain computing results according to physical, physiological, psychological and socio laws. Linking various spaces will create a complex space — the Cyber-Physical-Physiological-Psychological-Socio-Mental Environment CP3SME. Diverse spaces will emerge, evolve, compete and cooperate with each other to extend machine intelligence and human intelligence. From multi-disciplinary perspective, this paper reviews previous ideas on various links, introduces the concept of cyber-physical society, proposes the ideal of the CP3SME including its definition, characteristics, and multi-disciplinary revolution, and explores the methodology of linking through spaces for cyber-physical-socio intelligence. The methodology includes new models, principles, mechanisms, scientific issues, and philosophical explanation. The CP3SME aims at an ideal environment for humans to live and work. Exploration will go beyond previous ideals on intelligence and computing.

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Words and intelligence II:essays in honor of Yorick Wilks

Yorick Wilks is a central figure in the fields of Natural Language Processing and Artificial Intelligence. His influence has extends to many areas of these fields and includes contributions to Machine Translation, word sense disambiguation, dialogue modeling and Information Extraction.This book celebrates the work of Yorick Wilks from the perspective of his peers. It consists of original chapters each of which analyses an aspect of his work and links it to current thinking in that area. His work has spanned over four decades but is shown to be pertinent to recent developments in language processing such as the Semantic Web.This volume forms a two-part set together with Words and Intelligence I, Selected Works by Yorick Wilks, by the same editors.

A mixture density network approach to modelling and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear control problems

In nonlinear and stochastic control problems, learning an efficient feed-forward controller is not amenable to conventional neurocontrol methods. For these approaches, estimating and then incorporating uncertainty in the controller and feed-forward models can produce more robust control results. Here, we introduce a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multi-variable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.