Back from the future:the second chance in the past of aller + infinitive

Typological studies (Bybee et al. 1994, Dahl 2000, Bourdin 2008 among many others) have shown a tendency for spatial elements (such as movement verbs) to grammaticalise into temporal expressions. The periphrasis made of aller + infinitive has been very productive in Romance languages. If in French, Spanish or Portuguese, it refers to future, it refers to a simple past in Catalan. fr.: je vais aller au cinéma esp.: voy a ir al cine pt. Vou ira o cine cat.: vaig anar al cine Barceló & Bres (2005:168) indicate that, In French, «vers le XVIème siècle, […] la périphrase a brièvement fonctionné comme un temps du passé (alors même que l’emploi comme temps du futur émergeait)»: (1) Sur ces propos, firent leur accord et, en regardant le lieu le plus propre pour faire cette belle œuvre, elle va dire qu’elle n’en savait point de meilleure ni plus loin de tout soupçon, qu’une petite maison qui était dedans le parc, où il y avait chambre et lit tout à propos. (Marguerite de Navarre, L’Heptaméron) The future value took over so much so that Damourette & Pichon (1911-1936 :117) claimed the past value had disappeared»: Un second tour, encore plus aberrant, n’a plus, que nous sachions, aucune position en pays d’Oui. Nous voulons parler de l’expression d’un passé au moyen de l’auxiliaire aller, suivi de l’infinitif. Ce tour a eu une grande fortune dans le provençal ancien et le catalan […] En français, on n’en trouve que des traces, notamment du XIVe au XVIe siècles . Ex.:[…] Adoncques s’arrêtèrent le conte et Raimondin soubz un grand arbre ; lors va dire le conte à Raimondin: […]. Et Raimondin va lui dire : Sire, ce qu’il vous plaira. That allegedly extinct use is nonetheless alive and kicking in Contemporary French. Larreya (2005:349)notes that it is « très courant dans les récits – en particulier dans les récits oraux» and it is also found in newspaper language as shown by this except from an obituary for Loulou Gasté (Le Monde 1995): (2) Celle-ci se déroule aux Editions Micro, où il a un bureau. Séduit par la jeune interprète, il commence à lui écrire des chansons sur mesure et leur complicité va mettre cinq ans à se transformer en amour. Au début de leur rencontre, Loulou est neurasthénique parce qu’il vient de divorcer et la future Line, exclusivement préoccupée par son métier, ne songe à rien d’autre. Line et Loulou vont rattraper le temps perdu et créer ensemble un millier de petites chansons dont la plupart sont devenues immortelles. Jusqu’à ces derniers mois, il ne va pas se passer une journée sans que Loulou s’empare de sa guitare pour créer un refrain. Would we be witnessing a linguistic resurrection? The same structure seems therefore to have grammaticalised in diverging and even diametrically opposite ways in different Romance languages. In this talk, we shall try to explain how the phrase aller + infinitive is able to function both as a future and a past. We will especially concentrate on the case of contemporary French where, while the future interpretation has obtained the status of tense as futur proche or périphrastique, a past interpretation is now commonplace. Our reflection will be supported by a personal corpus of authentic examples.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.