Gaussian processes and SVM: Mean field results and leave-one-out

In this chapter, we elaborate on the well-known relationship between Gaussian processes (GP) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Secondly, we present approximate solutions for two computational problems arising in GP and SVM. The first one is the calculation of the posterior mean for GP classifiers using a `naive' mean field approach. The second one is a leave-one-out estimator for the generalization error of SVM based on a linear response method. Simulation results on a benchmark dataset show similar performances for the GP mean field algorithm and the SVM algorithm. The approximate leave-one-out estimator is found to be in very good agreement with the exact leave-one-out error.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Parabolic optical pulses under the action of the third-order dispersion

Recent developments in nonlinear optics reveal an interesting class of pulses with a parabolic intensity profile in the energy-containing core and a linear frequency chirp that can propagate in a fiber with normal group-velocity dispersion. Parabolic pulses propagate in a stable selfsimilar manner, holding certain relations (scaling) between pulse power, width, and chirp parameter. In the additional presence of linear amplification, they enjoy the remarkable property of representing a common asymptotic state (or attractor) for arbitrary initial conditions. Analytically, self-similar (SS) parabolic pulses can be found as asymptotic, approximate solutions of the nonlinear Schr¨odinger equation (NLSE) with gain in the semi-classical (largeamplitude/small-dispersion) limit. By analogy with the well-known stable dynamics of solitary waves - solitons, these SS parabolic pulses have come to be known as similaritons. In practical fiber systems, inherent third-order dispersion (TOD) in the fiber always introduces a certain degree of asymmetry in the structure of the propagating pulse, eventually leading to pulse break-up. To date, there is no analytic theory of parabolic pulses under the action of TOD. Here, we develop aWKB perturbation analysis that describes the effect of weak TOD on the parabolic pulse solution of the NLSE in a fiber gain medium. The induced perturbation in phase and amplitude can be found to any order. The theoretical model predicts with sufficient accuracy the pulse structural changes induced by TOD, which are observed through direct numerical NLSE simulations.

Parabolic optical pulses under the action of the third-order dispersion

Recent developments in nonlinear optics reveal an interesting class of pulses with a parabolic intensity profile in the energy-containing core and a linear frequency chirp that can propagate in a fiber with normal group-velocity dispersion. Parabolic pulses propagate in a stable selfsimilar manner, holding certain relations (scaling) between pulse power, width, and chirp parameter. In the additional presence of linear amplification, they enjoy the remarkable property of representing a common asymptotic state (or attractor) for arbitrary initial conditions. Analytically, self-similar (SS) parabolic pulses can be found as asymptotic, approximate solutions of the nonlinear Schr¨odinger equation (NLSE) with gain in the semi-classical (largeamplitude/small-dispersion) limit. By analogy with the well-known stable dynamics of solitary waves - solitons, these SS parabolic pulses have come to be known as similaritons. In practical fiber systems, inherent third-order dispersion (TOD) in the fiber always introduces a certain degree of asymmetry in the structure of the propagating pulse, eventually leading to pulse break-up. To date, there is no analytic theory of parabolic pulses under the action of TOD. Here, we develop aWKB perturbation analysis that describes the effect of weak TOD on the parabolic pulse solution of the NLSE in a fiber gain medium. The induced perturbation in phase and amplitude can be found to any order. The theoretical model predicts with sufficient accuracy the pulse structural changes induced by TOD, which are observed through direct numerical NLSE simulations.

Online trendy topics detection in microblogs with selective user monitoring under cost constraints

As microblog services such as Twitter become a fast and convenient communication approach, identification of trendy topics in microblog services has great academic and business value. However detecting trendy topics is very challenging due to huge number of users and short-text posts in microblog diffusion networks. In this paper we introduce a trendy topics detection system under computation and communication resource constraints. In stark contrast to retrieving and processing the whole microblog contents, we develop an idea of selecting a small set of microblog users and processing their posts to achieve an overall acceptable trendy topic coverage, without exceeding resource budget for detection. We formulate the selection operation of these subset users as mixed-integer optimization problems, and develop heuristic algorithms to compute their approximate solutions. The proposed system is evaluated with real-time test data retrieved from Sina Weibo, the dominant microblog service provider in China. It's shown that by monitoring 500 out of 1.6 million microblog users and tracking their microposts (about 15,000 daily) with our system, nearly 65% trendy topics can be detected, while on average 5 hours earlier before they appear in Sina Weibo official trends.

Message passing for distributed optimisation of power allocation with renewable resources

The increase in renewable energy generators introduced into the electricity grid is putting pressure on its stability and management as predictions of renewable energy sources cannot be accurate or fully controlled. This, with the additional pressure of fluctuations in demand, presents a problem more complex than the current methods of controlling electricity distribution were designed for. A global approximate and distributed optimisation method for power allocation that accommodates uncertainties and volatility is suggested and analysed. It is based on a probabilistic method known as message passing [1], which has deep links to statistical physics methodology. This principled method of optimisation is based on local calculations and inherently accommodates uncertainties; it is of modest computational complexity and provides good approximate solutions.We consider uncertainty and fluctuations drawn from a Gaussian distribution and incorporate them into the message-passing algorithm. We see the effect that increasing uncertainty has on the transmission cost and how the placement of volatile nodes within a grid, such as renewable generators or consumers, effects it.

A method of fundamental solutions for transient heat conduction in layered materials

In this paper we investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to transient heat conduction in layered materials, where the thermal diffusivity is piecewise constant. Recently, in Johansson and Lesnic [A method of fundamental solutions for transient heat conduction. Eng Anal Boundary Elem 2008;32:697–703], a MFS was proposed with the sources placed outside the space domain of interest, and we extend that technique to numerically approximate the heat flow in layered materials. Theoretical properties of the method, as well as numerical investigations are included.

An efficient, approximate path-following algorithm for elastic net based nonlinear spike enhancement

Unwanted spike noise in a digital signal is a common problem in digital filtering. However, sometimes the spikes are wanted and other, superimposed, signals are unwanted, and linear, time invariant (LTI) filtering is ineffective because the spikes are wideband - overlapping with independent noise in the frequency domain. So, no LTI filter can separate them, necessitating nonlinear filtering. However, there are applications in which the noise includes drift or smooth signals for which LTI filters are ideal. We describe a nonlinear filter formulated as the solution to an elastic net regularization problem, which attenuates band-limited signals and independent noise, while enhancing superimposed spikes. Making use of known analytic solutions a novel, approximate path-following algorithm is given that provides a good, filtered output with reduced computational effort by comparison to standard convex optimization methods. Accurate performance is shown on real, noisy electrophysiological recordings of neural spikes.