Governance regimes, corruption and growth: theory and evidence

We study the role of political accountability as a determinant of corruption and economic growth. Our model identifies two governance regimes defined by the quality of political institutions and shows that the relationship between corruption and growth is regime specific. We use a threshold model to estimate the impact of corruption on growth where corruption is treated as an endogenous variable. We find two governance regimes, conditional on the quality of political institutions. In the regime with high quality political institutions, corruption has a substantial negative impact on growth. In the regime with low quality institutions, corruption has no impact on growth.

Foreign direct investment and corruption

In the last few decades, the world has witnessed an enormous growth in the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI). The global stock of FDI reached US$ 7.5 trillion in 2003 and accounted for 11% of world Gross Domestic Product, up from 7% in 1990. The sales of multinational enterprises at around US$ 19 trillion were more than double the level of world exports. Substantial FDI inflows went into transition countries. Inflows into one of the region's largest recipient, the Russian Federation, almost doubled, enabling Russia to become one of the five top FDI destinations in 2005-2006. FDI inflows in Russia have increased almost threefold from 13.6% in 2003 to 35% in 2007. In 2003, these flows were twice greater than those into China; whilst in 2007 they were six times larger. Russia's FDI inflows were also about 2.5 times greater than those of Brazil. Efficient government institutions are argued by many economists to foster FDI and growth as a result. However, the magnitude of this effect has yet to be measured. This thesis takes a Political Economy approach to explore, empirically, the potential impact of malfunctioning governmental institutions, proxied by three indices of perceived corruption, on FDI stocks accumulation/distribution within Russia over the period of 2002-2004. Using a regional data-set it concentrates on three areas relating to FDI. Firstly, it considers the significance, the size and the sign of the impact of perceived corruption on accumulation of FDI stocks within Russia. Secondly, it quantifies the impact of perceived corruption on the volume of FDI stocks simultaneously estimating the impact of the investment in public capital such as telecommunications and transportation networks on FDI in the presence of corruption. In particular, it addresses the question whether more corrupt regions in Russia are also those that could have accumulated more of FDI stocks, and investigates whether those 'more corrupt' regions would have had lower level of public capital investment. Finally, it examines whether decentralisation increases or decreases corruption and whether a larger extent of decentralisation has a positive or negative impact on FDI (stocks). The results of three studies are as follows. Firstly, along with market potential, corruption is found to be one of the key factors in explaining FDI distribution within Russia between 2002 and 2004. Secondly, corruption on average is found to be related to FDI positively suggesting that it may act as speed money: to save their time foreign direct investors might be willing to bribe the regional authorities so to move in front of the bureaucratic lines. Thirdly, although when corruption is controlled for, the impact of the latter on unobservable FDI is found to be on average positive, no association between FDI and public investment is observed with the only exception of transportation infrastructure (i.e., railway). The results might suggest therefore that it is possible that not only regions with high levels of perceived corruption attract more FDI but also that expansions in public capital investments are not accompanied by an increase of the volume of FDI (stocks) in regions with high levels of corruption. This casts some doubt on the productivity of the investment in public capital in these regions as it might be that bureaucrats may prefer to use these infrastructural projects for rent extraction. Finally, we find decentralisation to have a significant and positive impact on both FDI stock accumulation and corruption, suggesting that local governments may spend more on public goods to make the area more attractive to foreign investors but at the same time they may be interested into extracting rents from foreign investors. These results support the idea that the regulation of FDI is associated with and facilitated by a larger public sector, which distorts competition and introduces opportunities for rent-seeking by particular economic and political factors.

The effect of corruption on FDI:a parametric and non-parametric analysis

This paper analyses the effect of corruption on Multinational Enterprises' (MNEs) incentives to undertake FDI in a particular country. We contribute to the existing literature by modelling the relationship between corruption and FDI using both parametric and non-parametric methods. We report that the impact of corruption on FDI stock is different for the different quantiles of the FDI stock distribution. This is a characteristic that could not be captured in previous studies which used only parametric methods. After controlling for the location selection process of MNEs and other host country characteristics, the result from both parametric and non-parametric analyses offer some support for the ‘helping-hand’ role of corruption.

Selectivity and timing performance of UK investment trusts

This study examines the selectivity and timing performance of 218 UK investment trusts over the period July 1981 to June 2009. We estimate the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models augmented with the size, value, and momentum factors, either under the OLS method adjusted with the Newey-West procedure or under the GARCH(1,1)-in-mean method following the specification of Glosten et al. (1993; hereafter GJR-GARCH-M). We find that the OLS method provides little evidence in favour of the selectivity and timing ability, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the GJR-GARCH-M method reverses this result, showing some relatively strong evidence on favourable selectivity ability, particularly for international funds, as well as favourable timing ability, particularly for domestic funds. We conclude that the GJR-GARCH-M method performs better in evaluating fund performance compared with the OLS method and the non-parametric approach, as it essentially accounts for the time-varying characteristics of factor loadings and hence obtains more reliable results, in particular, when the high frequency data, such as the daily returns, are used in the analysis. Our results are robust to various in-sample and out-of-sample tests and have valuable implications for practitioners in making their asset allocation decisions across different fund styles. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

The trading mechanism, cross listed stocks:A comparison of the Paris Bourse and SEAQ-International

This paper studies the behaviour of returns for a sample of cross-listed stocks, listed on both the Paris Bourse and SEAQ-International in London. The aim of the paper is to discover which market adjusts to fundamental news more quickly, the home market of Paris or SEAQ-International. We find that prices in London adjust to changes in their fundamental value more slowly than Paris prices, despite the ability to quickly arbitrage between the two markets. We suggest that this finding may reflect the type of trading, which takes place in the two markets and differences associated with the reporting of large trades. We also estimate the amount of noise present in the two markets and show that the Paris market is more noisy than London. © 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets

A two-factor no-arbitrage model is used to provide a theoretical link between stock and bond market volatility. While this model suggests that short-term interest rate volatility may, at least in part, drive both stock and bond market volatility, the empirical evidence suggests that past bond market volatility affects both markets and feeds back into short-term yield volatility. The empirical modelling goes on to examine the (time-varying) correlation structure between volatility in the stock and bond markets and finds that the sign of this correlation has reversed over the last 20 years. This has important implications far portfolio selection in financial markets. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring and assessing the effects and extent of international bond market integration

We review briefly the literature on international financial integration, especially as it pertains to bond market integration. This contextualizes the review we than provide of a number of papers contained in a special issue of this Journal. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Workplace crime and the informal economy in Ukraine: Employee and employer perspectives

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the criminal workplace activities of both employers and employees in Ukrainian enterprises. It challenges traditional definitions of corruption and suggests that the practices that can be observed fit into the category of organised crime because of the country's economic framework. The paper also explores how the practices are partially a legacy of Soviet economic processes. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 700 household surveys were completed in three cities, Kyiv (where 450 surveys were completed), Uzhgorod (150) and Kharkiv (100). To complement these, approximately 25 in-depth interviews were undertaken with workers in each region. Furthermore, ethnographic observations and “kitchen table” interviews also played an important role in the research. Although the research was oriented towards those working in informal economies, business owners (both formal and informal) were also interviewed. Findings – As well as revealing the endemic nature of corruption in Ukrainian workplaces and the high levels of informal activity undertaken by workers, the research found that many people wish for their workplace to become more regulated. Research limitations/implications – Further interviews could have been carried out with state officials and in more locations. The implications are multiple but mainly they demonstrate the difficulty that those charged with economic reform in Ukraine must face. Originality/value – It is one of the first studies to explore these issues in Ukraine using a variety of research methods.

Purchasing power parity and structural instability in the US/UK exchange rate

The aim of this study is to determine if nonlinearities have affected purchasing power parity (PPP) since 1885. Also using recent advances in the econometrics of structural change we segment the sample space according to the identified breaks and look at whether the PPP condition holds in each sub-sample and whether this involves linear or non-linear adjustment. Our results suggest that during some sub-periods, PPP holds, although whether it holds or not and whether the adjustment is linear or non-linear, depends primarily on the type of exchange rate regime in operation at any point in time.

Growth expectations of business owners:impact of human capital, firm characteristics and environmental transition

This paper presents an empirical study based on a survey of 399 owners of small and medium size companies in Lithuania. Applying bivariate and ordered probit estimators, we investigate why some business owners expect their firms to expand, while others do not. Our main findings provide evidence that SME owner's generic and specific human capital matter. Those with higher education and 'learning by doing' attributes, either through previous job experience or additional entrepreneurial experience, expect their businesses to expand. The expectations of growth are positively related to exporting and non-monotonically to enterprise size. In addition, we analyse the link between the perceptions of constraints to business activities and growth expectations and find that the factors, which are perceived as main business barriers, are not necessary those which are associated with reduced growth expectations. In particular, perceptions of both corruption and of inadequate tax systems seem to affect growth expectations the most.

Price synchronicity:the closing call auction and the London Stock Market

In this paper, we consider the impact of the introduction of a closing call auction on market quality of the London Stock Exchange. We employ the market model, RDD and MEC metrics of market quality. These signify substantial improvements to market quality at both the close and open for migrating stocks.We note that these improvements are larger at the open than the close. An important contribution of our paper is that we show that changes to market quality are stronger in those securities that have the lowest liquidity in the pre-call period. In contrast, market quality changes following the introduction of a closing call auction are approximately neutral for high-liquidity securities. We conclude that the implementation of a closing call auction, for high-liquidity securities may not enhance market quality.

Efficiency and the trading system:The case of SETSmm

This paper studies the impact that a change from a dealer system to a market-maker supported auction system has on market quality. We study the impact that the introduction of SETSmm at the London Stock Exchange had on firm value, price efficiency and liquidity. We discover a small SETSmm return premium associated with the announcement that securities are to migrate to the new trading system. Moreover, securities that migrate to SETSmm are characterized by improvements to liquidity and pricing efficiency. We find that these changes are related to the return premium.

Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation. We show that in portfolios where security specific effects have not been completely diversified, portfolio autocorrelation will not increase monotonically with increasing non-trading, as indicated in Lo and MacKinlay (1990). We show that at high levels of non-trading, portfolio autocorrelation will become a decreasing function of non-trading probability and may take negative values. We find that heterogeneity among the means, variances and betas of the component securities in a portfolio can act to increase the induced autocorrelation, particularly in portfolios containing fewer stocks. Security specific effects remain even when the number of securities in the portfolio is far in excess of that considered necessary to diversify security risk. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects

stocks. We examine the effects of foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes on the excess returns of U.S. stocks, for short-horizons of 1-40 days. Our new evidence shows a tendency for the volatility of both excess returns and FX rate changes to be negatively related with FX rate and interest rate effects. Both the number of firms with significant FX rate and interest rate effects and the magnitude of their exposures increase with the length of the return horizon. Our finding seems inconsistent with the view that firms hedge effectively at short-return horizons.

What matters in business incubation? A literature review and a suggestion for situated theorising

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to provide a critical assessment of the literature on business incubation effectiveness and second, to submit a situated theoretical perspective on how business incubation management can provide an environment that supports the development of incubatee entrepreneurs and their businesses. Design/methodology/approach – The paper provides a narrative critical assessment of the literature on business incubation effectiveness. Definitional issues, performance aspects and approaches to establishing critical success factors in business incubation are discussed. Business incubation management is identified as an overarching factor for theorising on business incubation effectiveness. Findings – The literature on business incubation effectiveness suffers from several deficiencies, including definitional incongruence, descriptive accounts, fragmentation and lack of strong conceptual grounding. Notwithstanding the growth of research on this domain, understanding of how entrepreneurs and their businesses develop within the business incubator environment remains limited. Given the importance of relational, intangible factors in business incubation and the critical role of business incubation management in orchestrating and optimising such factors, it is suggested that theorising efforts would benefit from a situated perspective. Originality/value – The identification of specific shortcomings in the literature on business incubation highlights the need for more systematic efforts towards theory building. It is suggested that focusing on the role of business incubation management from a situated learning theory perspective can lend itself to a more profound understanding of the development process of incubatee entrepreneurs and their firms. Theoretical propositions are offered to this effect, as well as avenues for future research.