An intelligent broker agent for energy trading:an MDP approach

This paper details the development and evaluation of AstonTAC, an energy broker that successfully participated in the 2012 Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). AstonTAC buys electrical energy from the wholesale market and sells it in the retail market. The main focus of the paper is on the broker’s bidding strategy in the wholesale market. In particular, it employs Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to purchase energy at low prices in a day-ahead power wholesale market, and keeps energy supply and demand balanced. Moreover, we explain how the agent uses Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHHMM) to forecast energy demand and price. An evaluation and analysis of the 2012 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC is the only agent that can buy energy at low price in the wholesale market and keep energy imbalance low.

The acceptability of alcohol fuels for automobile engines

The aim of this project was to carry out an investigastion into suitable alternatives to gasoline for use in modern automobiles. The fuel would provide the western world with a means of extending the natural gasoline resources and the third world a way of cutting down their dependence on the oil producing countries for their energy supply. Alcohols, namely methanol and ethanol, provide this solution. They can be used as gasoline extenders or as fuels on their own.In order to fulfil the aims of the project a literature study was carried out to investigate methods and costs of producing these fuels. An experimental programme was then set up in which the performance of the alcohols was studied on a conventional engine. The engine used for this purpose was the Fiat 127 930cc four cylinder engine. This engine was used because of its popularity in the European countries. The Weber fixed jet carburettor, since it was designed to be used with gasoline, was adapted so that the alcohol fuels and the blends could be used in the most efficient way. This was mainly to take account of the lower heat content of the alcohols. The adaptation of the carburettor was in the form of enlarging the main metering jet. Allowances for the alcohol's lower specfic gravity were made during fuel metering.Owing to the low front end volatility of methanol and ethanol, it was expected that `start up' problems would occur. An experimental programme was set up to determine the temperature range for a minimum required percentage `take off' that would ease start-up since it was determined that a `take off' of about 5% v/v liquid in the vapour phase would be sufficient for starting. Additions such as iso-pentane and n-pentane were used to improve the front end volatility. This proved to be successful.The lower heat content of the alcohol fuels also meant that a greater charge of fuel would be required. This was seen to pose further problems with fuel distribution from the carburettor to the individual cylinders on a multicylinder engine. Since it was not possible to modify the existing manifold on the Fiat 127 engine, experimental tests on manifold geometry were carried out using the Ricardo E6 single cylinder variable compression engine. Results from these tests showed that the length, shape and cross-sectional area of the manifold play an important part in the distribution of the fuel entering the cylinder, ie. vapour phase, vapour/small liquid droplet/liquid film phase, vapour/large liquid droplet/liquid film phase etc.The solvent properties of the alcohols and their greater electrical conductivity suggested that the materials used on the engine would be prone to chemical attack. In order to determine the type and rate of chemical attack, an experimental programme was set up whereby carburettor and other components were immersed in the alcohols and in blends of alcohol with gasoline. The test fuels were aerated and in some instances kept at temperatures ranging from 50oC to 90oC. Results from these tests suggest that not all materials used in the conventional engine are equally suitable for use with alcohols and alcohol/gasoline blends. Aluminium for instance was severely attacked by methanol causing pitting and pin-holing in the surface.In general this whole experimental programme gave valuable information on the acceptability of substitute fuels. While the long term effects of alcohol use merit further study, it is clear that methanol and ethanol will be increasingly used in place of gasoline.

Evaluating the evidence for targeting FOXO3a in breast cancer:a systematic review

Background: Tumour cells show greater dependency on glycolysis so providing a sufficient and rapid energy supply for fast growth. In many breast cancers, estrogen, progesterone and epidermal growth factor receptor-positive cells proliferate in response to growth factors and growth factor antagonists are a mainstay of treatment. However, triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) cells lack receptor expression, are frequently more aggressive and are resistant to growth factor inhibition. Downstream of growth factor receptors, signal transduction proceeds via phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3k), Akt and FOXO3a inhibition, the latter being partly responsible for coordinated increases in glycolysis and apoptosis resistance. FOXO3a may be an attractive therapeutic target for TNBC. Therefore we have undertaken a systematic review of FOXO3a as a target for breast cancer therapeutics. Methods: Articles from NCBI were retrieved systematically when reporting primary data about FOXO3a expression in breast cancer cells after cytotoxic drug treatment. Results: Increased FOXO3a expression is common following cytotoxic drug treatment and is associated with apoptosis and cell cycle arrest. There is some evidence that metabolic enzyme expression is also altered and that this effect is also elicited in TNBC cells. FOXO3a expression serves as a positive prognostic marker, especially in estrogen (ER) receptor positive cells. Discussion: FOXO3a is upregulated by a number of receptor-dependent and -independent anti-cancer drugs and associates with apoptosis. The identification of microRNA that regulate FOXO3a directly suggest that it offers a tangible therapeutic target that merits wider evaluation.

Solid biofuel production by mechanical pre-treatment of brewers' spent grain

The brewing industry produces large amounts of by-products and wastes like brewers' spent grain (BSG). In Germany, each year approximately 2.1 million tonnes of BSG are generated. During the last years conventional routes of BSG utilization face a remarkable change, such as the decline in the demand as animal feed. Due to its high content of organic matter energetic utilization may create an additional economic value for breweries. Furthermore, in the recent past breweries tend to shift their energy supply towards more sustainable concepts. Although, a decent number of research projects were carried out already, still no mature strategy is available. However, one possible solution can be the mechanical pretreatment of BSG. This step allows optimized energy utilization by the fractionation of BSG. Due to the transfer of digestible components, such as protein, to the liquid phase, the solid phase will largely consist of combustible components. That represents an opportunity to produce a solid biofuel with lower fuelnitrogen content compared to only thermal dried BSG. Therefore, two main purposes for the mechanical pre-treatment were determined, (1) to reduce the moisture content to at least 60 % (w/w) and (2) to diminish the protein content of the solid phase by 30 %. Moreover, the combustion trials should demonstrate whether stable processes and flue gas emissions within the legal limits in Germany are feasible. The results of the mechanical pre-treatment trials showed that a decrease of the moisture and protein content has been achieved. With regard to the combustion trials inconsistent outcomes were found. On the one hand a stable combustion was realized. On the other hand the legal emission levels of NOx (500 mgm -3) and dust (50 mgm-3) could not be kept during all trials. The further research steps will focus on the optimization of the air/fuel ratio by reducing the primary and secondary air conditions. Copyright © 2014,AIDIC Servizi S.r.l.

Low-temperature organic Rankine cycle engine with isothermal expansion for use in desalination

Groundwater salinity is a widespread problem that contributes to the freshwater deficit of humanity. Consequently, where conventional energy supply is also lacking, organic Rankine cycle (ORC) engines are being considered as a feasible option to harness readily available low-grade heat (<180°C) to drive the desalination of the saline water via reverse osmosis (RO). However, this application is still not very well developed, and has significantly high specific energy consumption (SEC). Hence, this study explores the isothermal expansion of the ORC working fluid to achieve improved efficiency for driving a batch-RO desalination process, "DesaLink". Here, the working fluid is directly vaporized in the expansion cylinder which is heated externally by heat transfer fluid, thus obviating the need for a separate external boiler and high-pressure piping. Experimental investigations with R245fa have shown cycle efficiency of 8.8%. And it is predicted that the engine could drive DesaLink to produce 256 L of freshwater per 8 h per day, from 4000 ppm saline water, with a thermal and mechanical SEC of 2.5 and 0.36 kWh/m3, respectively, representing a significant improvement on previously reported or predicted SEC values. © 2014 © 2014 Balaban Desalination Publications. All rights reserved.

Protection schemes for meshed VSC-HVDC transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms

This chapter discusses network protection of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms where the HVDC system utilizes voltage-source converters. The multi-terminal HVDC network topology and protection allocation and configuration are discussed with DC circuit breaker and protection relay configurations studied for different fault conditions. A detailed protection scheme is designed with a solution that does not require relay communication. Advanced understanding of protection system design and operation is necessary for reliable and safe operation of the meshed HVDC system under fault conditions. Meshed-HVDC systems are important as they will be used to interconnect large-scale offshore wind generation projects. Offshore wind generation is growing rapidly and offers a means of securing energy supply and addressing emissions targets whilst minimising community impacts. There are ambitious plans concerning such projects in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region which will all require a reliable yet economic system to generate, collect, and transmit electrical power from renewable resources. Collective offshore wind farms are efficient and have potential as a significant low-carbon energy source. However, this requires a reliable collection and transmission system. Offshore wind power generation is a relatively new area and lacks systematic analysis of faults and associated operational experience to enhance further development. Appropriate fault protection schemes are required and this chapter highlights the process of developing and assessing such schemes. The chapter illustrates the basic meshed topology, identifies the need for distance evaluation, and appropriate cable models, then details the design and operation of the protection scheme with simulation results used to illustrate operation. © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2014.

Public policy and electrical-grid sector innovation

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the manner in which technological innovation in the European electrical-grid sector has developed by focusing, in particular, on the effect of public policy on innovation. To achieve this aim, this paper highlights how technological innovation and development progressed from the 1960s to the 1980s, and contrasts this period with the deregulated/privatization environment. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a series of in-depth multiple company case studies of grid companies, some of their suppliers and other actors in their broader business network. Empirical data were collected through 55 interviews. Findings – The authors find that a phase of mutual collaboration was encouraged in the first period, which led to strong technological innovation with a focus on product quality and the development of functionality. Buyers played a pivotal role in the development of products and posed technical requirements. In contrast, the current role of the buyer has transformed principally into one of evaluating competing bids for specific projects. Today, buyers face increasing pressure to substantially lower CO2 emissions and transform the energy grid system. These goals are difficult to achieve without a new way of thinking about innovation. Research limitations/implications – Models to achieve innovation must not only focus on individual research projects; instead, the innovation should be factored into normal business dealings in the supply chain. Practical implications – We propose that policymakers and regulators need to: accommodate for innovation and address the collaborative elements of innovation when developing policies and regulations. Furthermore, regulators have the option of either developing a strategic vision for the electrical-grid network or incorporating sustainability into the evaluation of electrical grids and, thus, consumers’ willingness to pay. Originality/value – This paper makes a distinctive contribution in the area of innovation for electrical grids. Our paper shows how innovation and the development of new technology for electrical grids changed over time. Furthermore, this paper describes the energy sector in terms of a business network comprising the different actors involved in innovation and development and, thus, their role in the energy supply chain.

Traffic based energy consumption optimisation to improve the lifetime and performance of ad hoc wireless sensor networks

Ad hoc wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are formed from self-organising configurations of distributed, energy constrained, autonomous sensor nodes. The service lifetime of such sensor nodes depends on the power supply and the energy consumption, which is typically dominated by the communication subsystem. One of the key challenges in unlocking the potential of such data gathering sensor networks is conserving energy so as to maximize their post deployment active lifetime. This thesis described the research carried on the continual development of the novel energy efficient Optimised grids algorithm that increases the WSNs lifetime and improves on the QoS parameters yielding higher throughput, lower latency and jitter for next generation of WSNs. Based on the range and traffic relationship the novel Optimised grids algorithm provides a robust traffic dependent energy efficient grid size that minimises the cluster head energy consumption in each grid and balances the energy use throughout the network. Efficient spatial reusability allows the novel Optimised grids algorithm improves on network QoS parameters. The most important advantage of this model is that it can be applied to all one and two dimensional traffic scenarios where the traffic load may fluctuate due to sensor activities. During traffic fluctuations the novel Optimised grids algorithm can be used to re-optimise the wireless sensor network to bring further benefits in energy reduction and improvement in QoS parameters. As the idle energy becomes dominant at lower traffic loads, the new Sleep Optimised grids model incorporates the sleep energy and idle energy duty cycles that can be implemented to achieve further network lifetime gains in all wireless sensor network models. Another key advantage of the novel Optimised grids algorithm is that it can be implemented with existing energy saving protocols like GAF, LEACH, SMAC and TMAC to further enhance the network lifetimes and improve on QoS parameters. The novel Optimised grids algorithm does not interfere with these protocols, but creates an overlay to optimise the grids sizes and hence transmission range of wireless sensor nodes.

Addressing the project implementation challenges in the Saudi Arabian power supply industry: an investigative approach towards improving project delivery

For many decades, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been widely known for being a reliable oil exporter. This fact, however, has not exempted it from facing significant domestic energy challenges. One of the most pressing of these challenges involves bridging the widening electricity supply-demand gap where, currently, the demand is growing at a very fast rate. One crucial means to address this challenge is through delivering power supply projects with maximum efficiency. Project delivery delay, however, is not uncommon in this highly capital-intensive industry, indicating electricity supplies are not coping with the demand increases. To provide a deeper insight into the challenges of project implementation and efficient practice, this research adopts a pragmatic approach by triangulating literature, questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The research was conducted in the Saudi Arabian power supply industry – Western Operating Area. A total of 105 usable questionnaires were collected, and 28 recorded, semi-structured interviews were conducted, analysed and synthesised to produce a conceptual model of what constitutes the project implementation challenges in the investigated industry. This was achieved by conducting a comprehensive ranking analysis applied to all 58 identified and surveyed factors which, according to project practitioners in the investigated industry, contribute to project delay. 28 of these project delay factors were selected as the "most important" ones. Factor Analysis was employed to structure these 28 most important project delay factors into the following meaningful set of 7 project implementation challenges: Saudi Electricity Company's contractual commitments, Saudi Electricity Company's communication and coordination effectiveness, contractors' project planning and project control effectiveness, consultant-related aspects, manpower challenges and material uncertainties, Saudi Electricity Company's tendering system, and lack of project requirements clarity. The study has implications for industry policy in that it provides a coherent assessment of the key project stakeholders' central problems. From this analysis, pragmatic recommendations are proposed that, if enacted, will minimise the significance of the identified problems on future project outcomes, thus helping to ensure the electricity supply-demand gap is diminished.

The modelling of energy efficient drying for DSM (BL)

This thesis investigates the modelling of drying processes for the promotion of market-led Demand Side Management (DSM) as applied to the UK Public Electricity Suppliers. A review of DSM in the electricity supply industry is provided, together with a discussion of the relevant drivers supporting market-led DSM and energy services (ES). The potential opportunities for ES in a fully deregulated energy market are outlined. It is suggested that targeted industrial sector energy efficiency schemes offer significant opportunity for long term customer and supplier benefit. On a process level, industrial drying is highlighted as offering significant scope for the application of energy services. Drying is an energy-intensive process used widely throughout industry. The results of an energy survey suggest that 17.7 per cent of total UK industrial energy use derives from drying processes. Comparison with published work indicates that energy use for drying shows an increasing trend against a background of reducing overall industrial energy use. Airless drying is highlighted as offering potential energy saving and production benefits to industry. To this end, a comprehensive review of the novel airless drying technology and its background theory is made. Advantages and disadvantages of airless operation are defined and the limited market penetration of airless drying is identified, as are the key opportunities for energy saving. Limited literature has been found which details the modelling of energy use for airless drying. A review of drying theory and previous modelling work is made in an attempt to model energy consumption for drying processes. The history of drying models is presented as well as a discussion of the different approaches taken and their relative merits. The viability of deriving energy use from empirical drying data is examined. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are successfully applied to the modelling of drying rates for 3 drying technologies, namely convective air, heat pump and airless drying. The ANFIS systems are then integrated into a novel energy services model for the prediction of relative drying times, energy cost and atmospheric carbon dioxide emission levels. The author believes that this work constitutes the first to use fuzzy systems for the modelling of drying performance as an energy services approach to DSM. To gain an insight into the 'real world' use of energy for drying, this thesis presents a unique first-order energy audit of every ceramic sanitaryware manufacturing site in the UK. Previously unknown patterns of energy use are highlighted. Supplementary comments on the timing and use of drying systems are also made. The limitations of such large scope energy surveys are discussed.

Decentralized supply chain formation using max-sum loopy belief propagation

Supply chain formation is the process by which a set of producers within a network determine the subset of these producers able to form a chain to supply goods to one or more consumers at the lowest cost. This problem has been tackled in a number of ways, including auctions, negotiations, and argumentation-based approaches. In this paper we show how this problem can be cast as an optimization of a pairwise cost function. Optimizing this class of energy functions is NP-hard but efficient approximations to the global minimum can be obtained using loopy belief propagation (LBP). Here we detail a max-sum LBP-based approach to the supply chain formation problem, involving decentralized message-passing between supply chain participants. Our approach is evaluated against a well-known decentralized double-auction method and an optimal centralized technique, showing several improvements on the auction method: it obtains better solutions for most network instances which allow for competitive equilibrium (Competitive equilibrium in Walsh and Wellman is a set of producer costs which permits a Pareto optimal state in which agents in the allocation receive non-negative surplus and agents not in the allocation would acquire non-positive surplus by participating in the supply chain) while also optimally solving problems where no competitive equilibrium exists, for which the double-auction method frequently produces inefficient solutions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Control of second-life hybrid battery energy storage system based on modular boost-multilevel buck converter

To fully utilize second-life batteries on the grid system, a hybrid battery scheme needs to be considered for several reasons: the uncertainty over using a single source supply chain for second-life batteries, the differences in evolving battery chemistry and battery configuration by different suppliers to strive for greater power levels, and the uncertainty of degradation within a second-life battery. Therefore, these hybrid battery systems could have widely different module voltage, capacity, and initial state of charge and state of health. In order to suitably integrate and control these widely different batteries, a suitable multimodular converter topology and an associated control structure are required. This paper addresses these issues proposing a modular boost-multilevel buck converter based topology to integrate these hybrid second-life batteries to a grid-tie inverter. Thereafter, a suitable module-based distributed control architecture is introduced to independently utilize each converter module according to its characteristics. The proposed converter and control architecture are found to be flexible enough to integrate widely different batteries to an inverter dc link. Modeling, analysis, and experimental validation are performed on a single-phase modular hybrid battery energy storage system prototype to understand the operation of the control strategy with different hybrid battery configurations.

Supply chain optimisation of pyrolysis plant deployment using goal programming

This paper presents a goal programming model to optimise the deployment of pyrolysis plants in Punjab, India. Punjab has an abundance of waste straw and pyrolysis can convert this waste into alternative bio-fuels, which will facilitate the provision of valuable energy services and reduce open field burning. A goal programming model is outlined and demonstrated in two case study applications: small scale operations in villages and large scale deployment across Punjab's districts. To design the supply chain, optimal decisions for location, size and number of plants, downstream energy applications and feedstocks processed are simultaneously made based on stakeholder requirements for capital cost, payback period and production cost of bio-oil and electricity. The model comprises quantitative data obtained from primary research and qualitative data gathered from farmers and potential investors. The Punjab district of Fatehgarh Sahib is found to be the ideal location to initially utilise pyrolysis technology. We conclude that goal programming is an improved method over more conventional methods used in the literature for project planning in the field of bio-energy. The model and findings developed from this study will be particularly valuable to investors, plant developers and municipalities interested in waste to energy in India and elsewhere. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk and uncertainty in supply markets and sustainability-related innovation

tentially valuable innovations. In energy policy, much attention is given to analysing and incentivising customer demand, but new technologies also need new supply markets, to provide products and services to build, operate and maintain the innovative technology. This paper addresses the impact of supply constraints on the long-term viability of sustainability related innovations, using the case of energy from waste (EfW). Uncertainties in the pricing and availability of feedstock (i.e. waste) deter potential investors in EfW projects. We draw on prior supply management research to conceptualise the problem, and identify what steps might be taken to address it. Based on this analysis, we propose a research agenda aimed at purchasing and supply scholars and centred on the need to understand better how markets evolve and how stakeholders can (legitimately) influence the evolution of supply markets to support the adoption of sustainability related innovation. Within this broad case, specific themes are recommended for further investigation.