Mortality and financial crises

Drawing on a dataset covering more than 100 countries from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the impact of different types of financial crises on male and female mortality. We find that only currency crises have a direct short-term impact on mortality rates. We stylize our reading of the key empirical evidence of this paper in the following way: of three distinct types of financial crises, it is currency crises that have a direct short-term impact on mortality rates, and this is particularly the case for males.

Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises:a time varying coefficient approach

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility persistence and volatility spillover structure. Using daily data from several key stock market indices, the results of our bivariate GARCH models show the existence of time varying correlations as well as time varying shock and volatility spillovers between the returns of FTSE and DAX, and those of NIKKEI and Hang Seng, which became more prominent during the recent financial crisis. Our theoretical considerations on the time varying model which provides the platform upon which we integrate our multifaceted empirical approaches are also of independent interest. In particular, we provide the general solution for time varying asymmetric GARCH specifications, which is a long standing research topic. This enables us to characterize these models by deriving, first, their multistep ahead predictors, second, the first two time varying unconditional moments, and third, their covariance structure.

Firm-level productivity growth in Northern Ireland:the impact of exporting, innovation and public financial assistance

Motivated by the historically poor productivity performance of Northern Ireland firms and the longstanding productivity gap with the UK, the aim of this thesis is to examine, through the use of firm-level data, how exporting, innovation and public financial assistance impact on firm productivity growth. These particular activities are investigated due to the continued policy focus on their link to productivity growth and the theoretical claims of a direct positive relationship. In order to undertake these analyses a newly constructed dataset is used which links together cross-sectional and longitudinal data over the 1998-2008 period from the Annual Business Survey, the Manufacturing Sales and Export Survey; the Community Innovation Survey and Invest NI Selective Financial Assistance (SFA) payment data. Econometric methodologies are employed to estimate each of the relationships with regards to productivity growth, making use in particular of Heckman selection techniques and propensity score matching to take account of critical issues of endogeneity and selection bias. The results show that more productive firms self-select into exporting but there is no resulting productivity effect from starting to export; contesting the argument for learning-by-exporting. Product innovation is also found to have no impact on productivity growth over a four year period but there is evidence of a negative process innovation impact, likely to reflect temporary learning effects. Finally SFA assistance, including the amount of the payment, is found to have no short term impact on productivity growth suggesting substantial deadweight effects and/or targeting of inefficient firms. The results provide partial evidence as to why Northern Ireland has failed to narrow the productivity gap with the rest of the UK. The analyses further highlight the need for access to comprehensive firm-level data for research purposes, not least to underpin robust evidence-based policymaking.

Natural history of retinopathy in children and young people with type 1 diabetes

Purpose: To describe the prevalence and natural history of retinopathy in a cohort of children and young people with type 1 diabetes attending a tertiary hospital diabetes clinic. Methods: We analysed retinopathy screening data from 2008 to 2010 on all eligible children using the 'Twinkle' diabetes database and the regional retinal screening database. Results: A total of 88% (149/169) of eligible children were screened in 2008, median age 14 years, 52% male. The prevalence of retinopathy was 19.5% (30/149). All children had background retinopathy grade R1. There was significant difference in median (range) duration of diabetes, 7.7 years (0.6–13.7) vs 5 years (0.2–12.5) (P<0.001) and median (range) HbA1C, 9.1% (7.2–14) vs 8.6% (5.6–13.1) (P=0.02), between the groups with and without retinopathy. At 2- years follow-up, 12/30 (40%) had unchanged retinopathy grade R1, 10/30 (33.3%) showed resolution of changes (R0), 1/30 progressed to maculopathy, and 7/30 had no follow-up data. Median (range) HbA1C in 2008 and 2010 for the groups with stable vs resolved changes was similar, 9.1% (7.2–14.0) and 9.2% (7–14.0) vs 9.5% (7.8–14.0) and 9.2% (8.7–14.0). Of the 119 without retinopathy in 2008, 27 (22.5%) had developed retinopathy within 2 years, including 1 with pre-proliferative retinopathy and 1 with maculopathy. There was no significant difference in HbA1c between those who progressed to retinopathy (8.7% (7.1–13.1)) (8.7% (7.1–13.1)), and those who did not (8.6% (6.3–12.2)). Conclusions: Prevalence of background retinopathy in our cohort was comparable to the previously published reports, with higher HbA1c and longer duration of diabetes being significant risk factors. On short-term follow-up, Grade 1 retinopathy is likely to resolve in a third of patients and remain unchanged in just over a third.

Financial liberalization and stock market volatility:the case of Indonesia

This article examines the relationship between financial liberalization and stock market volatility in Indonesia. By looking at the time series properties of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) we identify breaks in stock market volatility which coincide with the timing of major policy events. Our main findings are (i) a significant decrease in volatility after the 'official' opening of the stock market to foreign participation; (ii) a significant increase in volatility in the year before market opening following reforms that eased entry requirements and the issuance of brokerage licenses and (iii) a significant increase in volatility at the time of the Asian crisis followed by a significant decrease in the second and sixth years after the crisis.

Financial constraints and technical efficiency:some empirical evidence for Italian producers' cooperatives

In this paper, we test the extent to which producers' cooperatives can experience an increase in technical efficiency following a tightening of financial constraints. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of Italian conventional and cooperative firms for the wine production and processing sector, using frontier analysis. The results support the hypothesis that increasing financial pressure can affect positively the cooperatives efficiency. Journal compilation © CIRIEC 2010.

Strategic planning and performance:extending the debate

This article extends the debate regarding the relationship between strategic planning and performance. It addresses criticism of previous empirical studies that have largely investigated direct and bi-variate relationships, producing equivocal results. The current study investigates the mediating effects of four types of flexibility on the strategic planning and performance relationship. Flexibility is defined as the extent to which new and alternative decisions are generated and considered in strategic planning, allowing for positive organizational change and adaptation to environmental turbulence. Through investigating simultaneous equations in a structural equation model, we find that two types of flexibility mediate the relationship between strategic planning and financial performance, while the other two types mediate the relationship between strategic planning and non-financial performance. The results are new empirical insights that have not been previously reported.

Credit and collateral

Collateral - generally defined as an asset used to provide security for a lender's loan - is an important feature of credit contracts and all the available evidence suggests that its use is getting more pervasive. This informative book builds upon recent research into this topic. Sena analyses three case-studies that revolve around the impact that financial constraints have on economic outcomes. In the first case-study, the relationship between firms' technical efficiency and increasing financial pressure is explored. The author then goes on to show, in the second case study, that under specific circumstances, increasing financial pressure and increasing product market competition can jointly have a positive impact on firms' technical efficiency, while not being true for all types of firms. In the third case, she analyses the impact that finance constraints have on women's start-ups. Unique and revealing, this is the first book to deal so extensively with the topic of collateral, and as such, is a valuable reference to postgraduates and professionals in the fields of macroeconomics, monetary and business economics. © 2008 Vania Sena. All rights reserved.

Financial accounting:a practical introduction

Discussing the theory and the application of accounting methods in isolation does not enable the learner to fully understand the material and the key techniques, and get the practice required. This text is an effort to “put a face” on this problem. Learning financial accounting is like learning a different language and as such, lots of practice is required. Financial accounting is not particularly a popular subject among first year students. Students usually find the first year introductory financial accounting module quite challenging and demanding. Many lecturers are consistently asked to provide more questions and exercises. Attempting a large number of accounting questions provides students with the necessary self-assurance and familiarity required to deal with more difficult aspects of financial accounting.

Primary production, financial constraints and economic instability:Zambia since independence.

A systematic analysis is presented of the economic consequences of the abnormally high concentration of Zambia's exports on a commodity whose price is exceptionally unstable. Zambian macro-economic variables in the post-independence years are extensively documented, showing acute instability and decline, particularly after the energy price revolution and the collapse of copper prices. The relevance of stabilization policies designed to correct short-term disequilibrium is questioned. It is, therefore, a pathological case study of externally induced economic instability, complementing other studies in this area which use cross-country analysis of a few selected variables. After a survey of theory and issues pertaining to development, finance and stabilization, the emergence of domestic and foreign financial constraints on the Zambian economy is described. The world copper industry is surveyed and an examination of commodity and world trade prices concludes that copper showed the highest degree of price instability. Specific aspects of Zambia's economy identified for detailed analysis include: its unprofitable mining industry, external payments disequilibrium, a constrained government budget, potentially inflationary monetary growth, and external indebtedness. International comparisons are used extensively, but major copper exporters are subjected to closer scrutiny. An appraisal of policy options concludes the study.

Poland's power and influence in the European Union:the case of its eastern policy

This paper seeks to assess the degree to which Poland exercises power and influence in the European Union. It employs Poland's policy towards its eastern neighbours as a case study, and, in doing so, contributes to two wider scholarly debates on how EU policy towards Russia, Ukraine and Belarus is made, and also the broader question of the evolving nature of the relationship between the European Union and its Member States. In doing so, it employs a synthetic framework that brings together the approaches for studying the power and influence of a given Member State that were developed by Wallace et al (2005), Tallberg (2008) and Moravcsik (1991, 1993, 1998). It concludes that Polish influence has been low. © 2010 Macmillan Publishers Ltd.

Off-farm labour supply and labour markets in rapidly changing circumstances:Bulgaria during transition

This study examines off-farm labor supply in the rapidly changing conditions of Bulgaria during the 1990s. In doing so, we make use of three different waves of the Bulgarian Integrated Household Survey, each reflecting remarkably different environmental conditions. The results suggest that standard theories of off-farm labor supply provide little guidance in situations characterized by chronic excess supply in the off-farm labor market and/or rapidly changing circumstances. In particular, the results show (1) that off-farm employment throughout the transition was predominantly determined by demand rather than by supply, and (2) that the magnitude and statistical significance of the various determinants are very sensitive to changing environmental conditions. As such, the results can be extremely relevant for both theory and policy for the many countries which may still need to go through privatization and painful restructuring as a result of financial crises and globalization.