Variational inference for diffusion processes

Diffusion processes are a family of continuous-time continuous-state stochastic processes that are in general only partially observed. The joint estimation of the forcing parameters and the system noise (volatility) in these dynamical systems is a crucial, but non-trivial task, especially when the system is nonlinear and multimodal. We propose a variational treatment of diffusion processes, which allows us to compute type II maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters by simple gradient techniques and which is computationally less demanding than most MCMC approaches. We also show how a cheap estimate of the posterior over the parameters can be constructed based on the variational free energy.

International handbook on privatization

Privatization has dominated industrial restructuring programs since the 1980s and continues to do so. This authoritative and accessible Handbook considers all aspects of this key issue, including the theory of privatization; privatization in transition, developed and developing economics; as well the economic regulation of privatized industries. The studies in this volume, introduced by international experts in the field 'presents evidence of the scope and effects of privatization, and consequently provide the basis for improving both policy formulation and implementation. However, they also emphasize that privatization is not an end in itself. It is argued that for privatization to be worthwhile and for lasting economic efficiency gains to be achieved, supporting reforms must accompany most privatization programs, particularly in the arenas of corporate governance and capital markets, product market competition, and state regulatory processes. Furthermore, several contributions demonstrate that the degree to which ownership and market liberalization can be usefully separated, and whether privatization without either competition or effective regulation is worthwhile, remain controversial issues. Furnishing the reader with a comprehensive and lively discussion of privatization in theory and practice, this Handbook will be the essential source of information for researchers in the field, and for a wide-ranging audience including public policy makers and specialists, development experts and agencies, international banks, public policy and regulation economists, and management consultants.

Gaussian process approximations of stochastic differential equations

Stochastic differential equations arise naturally in a range of contexts, from financial to environmental modeling. Current solution methods are limited in their representation of the posterior process in the presence of data. In this work, we present a novel Gaussian process approximation to the posterior measure over paths for a general class of stochastic differential equations in the presence of observations. The method is applied to two simple problems: the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, of which the exact solution is known and can be compared to, and the double-well system, for which standard approaches such as the ensemble Kalman smoother fail to provide a satisfactory result. Experiments show that our variational approximation is viable and that the results are very promising as the variational approximate solution outperforms standard Gaussian process regression for non-Gaussian Markov processes.

The relationship between senile plaques, neurofibrillary tangles and amyloid (A4) deposits in Alzheimer’s disease: A Principal Components Analysis

A Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was carried out on the density of lesions revealed by different stains in a total of 47 brain regions from six elderly patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The aim was to determine the relationships between the density of senile plaques (SP) revealed by the Glees and Gallyas stains and A4 deposits and between the plaques and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) in the same brain region. The analysis indicated that the populations of plaques revealed by the Glees and Gallyas stains were closely related to the A4 protein deposits but none of the lesions were related to NFT. The data suggest: 1) that neocortical regions differ from the hippocampus in the relative development of A4 and NFT; the former having more A4 deposits and the latter more NFT and 2) that the processes that lead to the formation of SP and NFT occur independently of each other in the same brain region.

Quantitative analysis of solid-state processes studied with isothermal microcalorimetry

Quantitative analysis of solid-state processes from isothermal microcalorimetric data is straightforward if data for the total process have been recorded and problematic (in the more likely case) when they have not. Data are usually plotted as a function of fraction reacted (α); for calorimetric data, this requires knowledge of the total heat change (Q) upon completion of the process. Determination of Q is difficult in cases where the process is fast (initial data missing) or slow (final data missing). Here we introduce several mathematical methods that allow the direct calculation of Q by selection of data points when only partial data are present, based on analysis with the Pérez-Maqueda model. All methods in addition allow direct determination of the reaction mechanism descriptors m and n and from this the rate constant, k. The validity of the methods is tested with the use of simulated calorimetric data, and we introduce a graphical method for generating solid-state power-time data. The methods are then applied to the crystallization of indomethacin from a glass. All methods correctly recovered the total reaction enthalpy (16.6 J) and suggested that the crystallization followed an Avrami model. The rate constants for crystallization were determined to be 3.98 × 10-6, 4.13 × 10-6, and 3.98 × 10 -6 s-1 with methods 1, 2, and 3, respectively. © 2010 American Chemical Society.

Gaussian processes for classification: mean field algorithms:mean-field algorithms

We derive a mean field algorithm for binary classification with Gaussian processes which is based on the TAP approach originally proposed in Statistical Physics of disordered systems. The theory also yields an approximate leave-one-out estimator for the generalization error which is computed with no extra computational cost. We show that from the TAP approach, it is possible to derive both a simpler 'naive' mean field theory and support vector machines (SVM) as limiting cases. For both mean field algorithms and support vectors machines, simulation results for three small benchmark data sets are presented. They show 1. that one may get state of the art performance by using the leave-one-out estimator for model selection and 2. the built-in leave-one-out estimators are extremely precise when compared to the exact leave-one-out estimate. The latter result is a taken as a strong support for the internal consistency of the mean field approach.

When do firms conform? The effect of regulatory control processes on compliance and opportunism

The authors use social control theory to develop a conceptual model that addresses the effectiveness of regulatory agencies’ (e.g., Food and Drug Administration, Occupational Safety and Health Administration) field-level efforts to obtain conformance with product safety laws. Central to the model are the control processes agencies use when monitoring organizations and enforcing the safety rules. These approaches can be labeled formal control (e.g., rigid enforcement) and informal control (e.g., social instruction). The theoretical framework identifies an important antecedent of control and the relative effectiveness of control’s alternative forms in gaining compliance and reducing opportunism. Furthermore, the model predicts that the regulated firms’ level of agreement with the safety rules moderates the relationships between control and firm responses. A local health department’s administration of state food safety regulations provides the empirical context for testing the hypotheses. The results from a survey of 173 restaurants largely support the proposed model. The study findings inform a discussion of effective methods of administering product safety laws. The authors use social control theory to develop a conceptual model that addresses the effectiveness of regulatory agencies’ (e.g., Food and Drug Administration, Occupational Safety and Health Administration) field-level efforts to obtain conformance with product safety laws. Central to the model are the control processes agencies use when monitoring organizations and enforcing the safety rules. These approaches can be labeled formal control (e.g., rigid enforcement) and informal control (e.g., social instruction). The theoretical framework identifies an important antecedent of control and the relative effectiveness of control’s alternative forms in gaining compliance and reducing opportunism. Furthermore, the model predicts that the regulated firms’ level of agreement with the safety rules moderates the relationships between control and firm responses. A local health department’s administration of state food safety regulations provides the empirical context for testing the hypotheses. The results from a survey of 173 restaurants largely support the proposed model. The study findings inform a discussion of effective methods of administering product safety laws.

Variational Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear niffusions

In this paper we develop set of novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian smoothing of partially observed non-linear diffusion processes. The sampling algorithms developed herein use a deterministic approximation to the posterior distribution over paths as the proposal distribution for a mixture of an independence and a random walk sampler. The approximating distribution is sampled by simulating an optimized time-dependent linear diffusion process derived from the recently developed variational Gaussian process approximation method. Flexible blocking strategies are introduced to further improve mixing, and thus the efficiency, of the sampling algorithms. The algorithms are tested on two diffusion processes: one with double-well potential drift and another with SINE drift. The new algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is compared with state-of-the-art hybrid Monte Carlo based path sampling. It is shown that in practical, finite sample, applications the algorithm is accurate except in the presence of large observation errors and low observation densities, which lead to a multi-modal structure in the posterior distribution over paths. More importantly, the variational approximation assisted sampling algorithm outperforms hybrid Monte Carlo in terms of computational efficiency, except when the diffusion process is densely observed with small errors in which case both algorithms are equally efficient.

Analysing organisational culture : a critical ethnography of public relations and personnel specialists in a state bureaucracy

Following an introductory chapter, I examine (i) typologies which have differentiated the literature on organisational culture and symbolism (Chapter 2), (ii) the contribution of organisation theory to organisation culture (Chapter 3), and (iii) recent literature on organisational culture and symbolism (Chapter 4). Within these chapters, I adopt Habermas' (1972) notion of knowledge-constitutive interests, assessing the contrubutions to understanding organisational culture made by literature guided by technical, practical and emancipatory cognitive interests. In doing so, I suggest that more critical studies on organisational culture and symbolism have been comparatively neglected. Lamenting this neglect, I suggest that Giddens' theory of structuration can be employed to advance the development of a critical, emancipatory conceptualisation of organisational culture. In particular, I argue that this Giddensian analysis, by penetrating the existential, poltical and material processes of cultural reproduction (Chapter 5), is able to disclose some of the more contradictory features of organisation culture. The remainder of the thesis comprises of a critical ethnography of the work cultures of public relations and personnel specialists located in a state bureaucracy. I begin the ethnography with a dicussion of my research methods (Chapter 6) and an overview of the departments studied (Chapter 7): I then examine (i) the work cultures of the specialists (Chapter 8), (ii) the specialists' management of the relationships with the hosts bureaucracy (Chapter 9); and, (iii) opportunities the specialists had for developing an emancipatory praxis (Chapter 10). Finally, in a concluding section, I offer some critical reflections on the contributions of the thesis and suggest areas for future research.

Synchronization processes in nonlinear systems and their relation to cortical oscillatory dynamics

This thesis was focused on theoretical models of synchronization to cortical dynamics as measured by magnetoencephalography (MEG). Dynamical systems theory was used in both identifying relevant variables for brain coordination and also in devising methods for their quantification. We presented a method for studying interactions of linear and chaotic neuronal sources using MEG beamforming techniques. We showed that such sources can be accurately reconstructed in terms of their location, temporal dynamics and possible interactions. Synchronization in low-dimensional nonlinear systems was studied to explore specific correlates of functional integration and segregation. In the case of interacting dissimilar systems, relevant coordination phenomena involved generalized and phase synchronization, which were often intermittent. Spatially-extended systems were then studied. For locally-coupled dissimilar systems, as in the case of cortical columns, clustering behaviour occurred. Synchronized clusters emerged at different frequencies and their boundaries were marked through oscillation death. The macroscopic mean field revealed sharp spectral peaks at the frequencies of the clusters and broader spectral drops at their boundaries. These results question existing models of Event Related Synchronization and Desynchronization. We re-examined the concept of the steady-state evoked response following an AM stimulus. We showed that very little variability in the AM following response could be accounted by system noise. We presented a methodology for detecting local and global nonlinear interactions from MEG data in order to account for residual variability. We found crosshemispheric nonlinear interactions of ongoing cortical rhythms concurrent with the stimulus and interactions of these rhythms with the following AM responses. Finally, we hypothesized that holistic spatial stimuli would be accompanied by the emergence of clusters in primary visual cortex resulting in frequency-specific MEG oscillations. Indeed, we found different frequency distributions in induced gamma oscillations for different spatial stimuli, which was suggestive of temporal coding of these spatial stimuli. Further, we addressed the bursting character of these oscillations, which was suggestive of intermittent nonlinear dynamics. However, we did not observe the characteristic-3/2 power-law scaling in the distribution of interburst intervals. Further, this distribution was only seldom significantly different to the one obtained in surrogate data, where nonlinear structure was destroyed. In conclusion, the work presented in this thesis suggests that advances in dynamical systems theory in conjunction with developments in magnetoencephalography may facilitate a mapping between levels of description int he brain. this may potentially represent a major advancement in neuroscience.

Dysregulated adipokines in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes and vascular disease

Obesity is commonly associated with type 2 diabetes and vascular disease. Changes in body composition in the obese state lead to a dysregulation of secretion of adipocyte-secreted hormones known as adipokines. Adipokines such as leptin and adiponectin are known to be involved in many physiological and pathological processes. Current knowledge suggests that adipokines provide potential therapeutic targets against type 2 diabetes and vascular disease.

Fe III in a low-spin state in caesium bis[3-ethoxysalicylaldehyde 4-methylthiosemicarbazonato(2–)-κ3O2,N1,S]ferrate(III) methanol monosolvate

The synthesis and crystal structure (at 100K) of the title compound, Cs[Fe(C11H13N3O2S2) 2] CH3OH, is reported. The asymmetric unit consists of an octahedral [FeIII(L)2]- fragment, where L 2- is 3-ethoxysalicylaldehyde 4-methylthiosemicarbazonate(2-) {systematic name: [2-(3-ethoxy-2-oxidobenzylidene)hydrazin-1-ylidene] (methylamino)methanethiolate}, a caesium cation and a methanol solvent molecule. Each L2- ligand binds through the thiolate S, the imine N and the phenolate O atoms as donors, resulting in an FeIIIS2N 2O2 chromophore. The O,N,S-coordinating ligands are orientated in two perpendicular planes, with the O and S atoms in cis positions and the N atoms in trans positions. The FeIII cation is in the low-spin state at 100K. © 2014 International Union of Crystallography.

Non-Markov state model of peptide dynamics

A hidden Markov state model has been applied to classical molecular dynamics simulated small peptide in explicit water. The methodology allows increasing the time resolution of the model and describe the dynamics with the precision of 0.3 ps (comparing to 6 ps for the standard methodology). It also permits the investigation of the mechanisms of transitions between the conformational states of the peptide. The detailed description of one of such transitions for the studied molecule is presented. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variational Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear diffusions

In this paper we develop set of novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian smoothing of partially observed non-linear diffusion processes. The sampling algorithms developed herein use a deterministic approximation to the posterior distribution over paths as the proposal distribution for a mixture of an independence and a random walk sampler. The approximating distribution is sampled by simulating an optimized time-dependent linear diffusion process derived from the recently developed variational Gaussian process approximation method. The novel diffusion bridge proposal derived from the variational approximation allows the use of a flexible blocking strategy that further improves mixing, and thus the efficiency, of the sampling algorithms. The algorithms are tested on two diffusion processes: one with double-well potential drift and another with SINE drift. The new algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is compared with state-of-the-art hybrid Monte Carlo based path sampling. It is shown that in practical, finite sample applications the algorithm is accurate except in the presence of large observation errors and low to a multi-modal structure in the posterior distribution over paths. More importantly, the variational approximation assisted sampling algorithm outperforms hybrid Monte Carlo in terms of computational efficiency, except when the diffusion process is densely observed with small errors in which case both algorithms are equally efficient. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.