Random field models and priors on wind

This report seeks to make concrete some of the ideas we have been discussing about sensible priors for winds over the ocean. In particular, random field models are reviewed, as are permissible covariance functions. The criteria which these covariance functions must satisfy in order that vorticity and divergence exist and are continuous are defined. The use of Helmholtz theorem is discussed, and possible choices for the covariances are suggested.

Childhood ethnic differences in ametropia and ocular biometry:the Aston Eye Study

Purpose: To describe the methodology, sampling strategy and preliminary results for the Aston Eye Study (AES), a cross-sectional study to determine the prevalence of refractive error and its associated ocular biometry in a large multi-racial sample of school children from the metropolitan area of Birmingham, England. Methods: A target sample of 1700 children aged 6–7 years and 1200 aged 12–13 years is being selected from Birmingham schools selected randomly with stratification by area deprivation index (a measure of socio-economic status). Schools with pupils predominantly (>70%) from a single race are excluded. Sample size calculations account for the likely participation rate and the clustering of individuals within schools. Procedures involve standardised protocols to allow for comparison with international population-based data. Visual acuity, non-contact ocular biometry (axial length, corneal radius of curvature and anterior chamber depth) and cycloplegic autorefraction are measured in both eyes. Distance and near oculomotor balance, height and weight are also assessed. Questionnaires for parents and older children will allow the influence of environmental factors on refractive error to be examined. Results: Recruitment and data collection are ongoing (currently N = 655). Preliminary cross-sectional data on 213 South Asian, 44 black African Caribbean and 70 white European children aged 6–7 years and 114 South Asian, 40 black African Caribbean and 115 white European children aged 12–13 years found myopia prevalence of 9.4% and 29.4% for the two age groups respectively. A more negative mean spherical equivalent refraction (SER) was observed in older children (-0.21 D vs +0.87 D). Ethnic differences in myopia prevalence are emerging with South Asian children having higher levels than white European children 36.8% vs 18.6% (for the older children). Axial length, corneal radius of curvature and anterior chamber depth were normally distributed, while SER was leptokurtic (p < 0.001) with a slight negative skew. Conclusions: The AES will allow ethnic differences in the ocular characteristics of children from a large metropolitan area of the UK to be examined. The findings to date indicate the emergence of higher levels of myopia by early adolescence in second and third generation British South Asians, compared to white European children. The continuation of the AES will allow the early determinants of these ethnic differences to be studied.

Sampling and measurement methods for a study of childhood refractive error in a UK population

Background There is a paucity of data describing the prevalence of childhood refractive error in the United Kingdom. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, along with its sister study the Aston Eye Study, are the first population-based surveys of children using both random cluster sampling and cycloplegic autorefraction to quantify levels of refractive error in the United Kingdom. Methods Children aged 6–7 years and 12–13 years were recruited from a stratified random sample of primary and post-primary schools, representative of the population of Northern Ireland as a whole. Measurements included assessment of visual acuity, oculomotor balance, ocular biometry and cycloplegic binocular open-field autorefraction. Questionnaires were used to identify putative risk factors for refractive error. Results 399 (57%) of 6–7 years and 669 (60%) of 12–13 years participated. School participation rates did not vary statistically significantly with the size of the school, whether the school is urban or rural, or whether it is in a deprived/non-deprived area. The gender balance, ethnicity and type of schooling of participants are reflective of the Northern Ireland population. Conclusions The study design, sample size and methodology will ensure accurate measures of the prevalence of refractive errors in the target population and will facilitate comparisons with other population-based refractive data.

Indigenous and foreign innovation efforts and drivers of technological upgrading:evidence from China

This paper explores the role of indigenous and foreign innovation efforts in technological upgrading in developing countries, taking into account sectoral specificities in technical change. Using a Chinese firm-level panel dataset covering 2001–05, the paper decomposes productivity growth into technical change and efficiency improvement and examines the impact of indigenous and foreign innovation efforts on these changes. Indigenous firms are found to be the leading force on the technological frontier in the low- and medium-technology industries, while foreign-invested firms enjoy a clear lead in the high-technology sector. Collective indigenous R&D activities at the industry level are found to be the major driver of technology upgrading of indigenous firms that push out the technology frontier. While foreign investment appears to contribute to static industry capabilities, R&D activities of foreign-invested firms have exerted a significant negative effect on the technical change of local firms over the sample period.

The relative strength of affective commitment in securing loyalty in service relationships

While commitment is an important antecedent to customer retention, a broad consensus has yet to emerge on the impacts of constituent dimensions of commitment on loyalty in service relationships. This study explores the impacts of affective and continuance commitment on attitudinal and behavioral loyalty in a service context. Since affective commitment is more positive and governed by free choice, whereas continuance commitment is more the result of perceived economic and psychological benefits of being in a relationship, the results of this study suggest that emotional bonds with customers provide a more enduring source of loyalty as compared to economic incentives and switching costs.

Nonlinear penalties in dynamic optical networks employing autonomous transponders

We report for the first time on the limitations in the operational power range of network traffic in the presence of heterogeneous 28-Gbaud polarization-multiplexed quadrature amplitude modulation (PM-mQAM) channels in a nine-channel dynamic optical mesh network. In particular, we demonstrate that transponders which autonomously select a modulation order and launch power to optimize their own performance will have a severe impact on copropagating network traffic. Our results also suggest that altruistic transponder operation may offer even lower penalties than fixed launch power operation.

Issues in EU and US Foreign Policy, edited by M. Cebeci (Plymouth: Lexington Books, 2011, ISBN 9780739147177); vii+394pp., £51.95 hb.

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