Modelling and improving maintenance decisions:Having foresight with simulation and artificial intelligence

Machine breakdowns are one of the main sources of disruption and throughput fluctuation in highly automated production facilities. One element in reducing this disruption is ensuring that the maintenance team responds correctly to machine failures. It is, however, difficult to determine the current practice employed by the maintenance team, let alone suggest improvements to it. 'Knowledge based improvement' is a methodology that aims to address this issue, by (a) eliciting knowledge on current practice, (b) evaluating that practice and (c) looking for improvements. The methodology, based on visual interactive simulation and artificial intelligence methods, and its application to a Ford engine assembly facility are described. Copyright © 2002 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Modelling, simulation and validation of a twelve-pulse autotransformer rectifier for aerospace applications

A microcap SPICE circuit-level model of a 12-pulse autotransformer based rectifier for an aircraft fuel-pump motor drive is described. The importance of including the nonlinear magnetising inductance of the interphase transformers is illustrated. Small supply voltage distortions are seen to result in current imbalance in the interphase transformers, degrading the rectifier input current, and may lead to infringement of the power quality specification. The model has been validated for various operating supply voltages, frequencies and output powers, against measurements from a 3.75 kW unit.

Simulation and control of a stepping motor

Open-loop operatlon of the stepping motor exploits the inherent advantages of the machine. For near optimum operation: in this mode, however, an accurate system model is required to facilitate controller design. Such a model must be comprehensive and take account of the non-linearities inherent in the system. The result is a complex formulation which can be made manageable with a computational aid. A digital simulation of a hybrid type stepping motor and its associated drive circuit is proposed. The simulation is based upon a block diagram model which includes reasonable approximations to the major non-linearities. The simulation is shown to yield accurate performance predictions. The determination of the transfer functions is based upon the consideration of the physical processes involved rather than upon direct input-outout measurements. The effects of eddy currents, saturation, hysteresis, drive circuit characteristics and non-linear torque displacement characteristics are considered and methods of determining transfer functions, which take account of these effects, are offered. The static torque displacement characteristic is considered in detail and a model is proposed which predicts static torque for any combination of phase currents and shaft position. Methods of predicting the characteristic directly from machine geometry are investigated. Drive circuit design for high efficiency operation is considered and a model of a bipolar, bilevel circuit is proposed. The transfers between stator voltage and stator current and between stator current and air gap flux are complicated by the effects of eddy currents, saturation and hysteresis. Frequency response methods, combined with average inductance measurements, are shown to yield reasonable transfer functions. The modelling procedure and subsequent digital simulation is concluded to be a powerful method of non-linear analysis.

Spray drier simulation and air flow pattern studies

The literature pertaining to the key stages of spray drying has been reviewed in the context of the mathematical modelling of drier performance. A critical review is also presented of previous spray drying models. A new mathematical model has been developed for prediction of spray drier performance. This is applicable to slurries of rigid, porous crust-forming materials to predict trajectories and drying profiles for droplets with a distribution of sizes sprayed from a centrifugal pressure nozzle. The model has been validated by comparing model predictions to experimental data from a pilot-scale counter-current drier and from a full-scale co-current drier. For the latter, the computed product moisture content was within 2%, and the computed air exit temperature within 10oC of experimental data. Air flow patterns have been investigated in a 1.2m diameter transparent countercurrent spray tower by flow visualisation. Smoke was introduced into various zones within the tower to trace the direction, and gauge the intensity, of the air flow. By means of a set of variable-angle air inlet nozzles, a variety of air entry configurations was investigated. The existence of a core of high rotational and axial velocity channelling up the axis of the tower was confirmed. The stability of flow within the core was found to be strongly dependent upon the air entry arrangement. A probe was developed for the measurement of air temperature and humidity profiles. This was employed for studying evaporation of pure water drops in a 1.2m diameter pilot-scale counter-current drier. A rapid approach to the exit air properties was detected within a 1m distance from the air entry ports. Measured radial profiles were found to be virtually flat but, from the axial profiles, the existence of plug-flow, well-mixed-flow and some degree of air short-circuiting can be inferred. The model and conclusions should assist in the improved design and optimum operation of industrial spray driers.

Simulation and Evaluation of High-Voltage Power Systems for Civil Aircraft

A status report of the modelling and simulation work that is being undertaken as part of the TIMES (Totally Integrated More Electric Systems) project is presented. Dynamic power quality simulations have been used to asses the performance of the electrical system of a EMA based actuation system for an Airbus A330 size aircraft, for both low voltage 115 V, and high voltage 230 V three-phase AC systems. The high voltage system is shown to have benefits in terms of power quality and reduced size and weight of equipment.

A simulation conceptual modelling procedure for SCM applications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to outline a seven-phase simulation conceptual modelling procedure that incorporates existing practice and embeds a process reference model (i.e. SCOR). Design/methodology/approach – An extensive review of the simulation and SCM literature identifies a set of requirements for a domain-specific conceptual modelling procedure. The associated design issues for each requirement are discussed and the utility of SCOR in the process of conceptual modelling is demonstrated using two development cases. Ten key concepts are synthesised and aligned to a general process for conceptual modelling. Further work is outlined to detail, refine and test the procedure with different process reference models in different industrial contexts. Findings - Simulation conceptual modelling is often regarded as the most important yet least understood aspect of a simulation project (Robinson, 2008a). Even today, there has been little research development into guidelines to aid in the creation of a conceptual model. Design issues are discussed for building an ‘effective’ conceptual model and the domain-specific requirements for modelling supply chains are addressed. The ten key concepts are incorporated to aid in describing the supply chain problem (i.e. components and relationships that need to be included in the model), model content (i.e. rules for determining the simplest model boundary and level of detail to implement the model) and model validation. Originality/value – Paper addresses Robinson (2008a) call for research in defining and developing new approaches for conceptual modelling and Manuj et al., (2009) discussion on improving the rigour of simulation studies in SCM. It is expected that more detailed guidelines will yield benefits to both expert (i.e. avert typical modelling failures) and novice modellers (i.e. guided practice; less reliance on hopeful intuition)

Knowledge based improvement:simulation and artificial intelligence for identifying and improving human decision-making in an operations systems

The performance of most operations systems is significantly affected by the interaction of human decision-makers. A methodology, based on the use of visual interactive simulation (VIS) and artificial intelligence (AI), is described that aims to identify and improve human decision-making in operations systems. The methodology, known as 'knowledge-based improvement' (KBI), elicits knowledge from a decision-maker via a VIS and then uses AI methods to represent decision-making. By linking the VIS and AI representation, it is possible to predict the performance of the operations system under different decision-making strategies and to search for improved strategies. The KBI methodology is applied to the decision-making surrounding unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant.

Measuring and modelling the influence of investor behaviour on investment decision making

Guest editorial

A study of business user based information systems development, and modelling success factors

This thesis describes research into business user involvement in the information systems application building process. The main interest of this research is in establishing and testing techniques to quantify the relationships between identified success factors and the outcome effectiveness of 'business user development' (BUD). The availability of a mechanism to measure the levels of the success factors, and quantifiably relate them to outcome effectiveness, is important in that it provides an organisation with the capability to predict and monitor effects on BUD outcome effectiveness. This is particularly important in an era where BUD levels have risen dramatically, user centred information systems development benefits are recognised as significant, and awareness of the risks of uncontrolled BUD activity is becoming more widespread. This research targets the measurement and prediction of BUD success factors and implementation effectiveness for particular business users. A questionnaire instrument and analysis technique has been tested and developed which constitutes a tool for predicting and monitoring BUD outcome effectiveness, and is based on the BUDES (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope) research model - which is introduced and described in this thesis. The questionnaire instrument is designed for completion by 'business users' - the target community being more explicitly defined as 'people who primarily have a business role within an organisation'. The instrument, named BUD ESP (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope Predictor), can readily be used with survey participants, and has been shown to give meaningful and representative results.

Assessment of physical and hydrological properties of biological soil crusts using x-ray microtomography and modelling

Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are formed by aggregates of soil particles and communities of microbial organisms and are common in all drylands. The role of BSCs on infiltration remains uncertain due to the lack of data on their role in affecting soil physical properties such as porosity and structure. Quantitative assessment of these properties is primarily hindered by the fragile nature of the crusts. Here we show how the use of a combination of non-destructive imaging X-ray microtomography (XMT) and Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) enables quantification of key soil physical parameters and the modeling of water flow through BSCs samples from Kalahari Sands, Botswana. We quantify porosity and flow changes as a result of mechanical disturbance of such a fragile cyanobacteria-dominated crust. Results show significant variations in porosity between different types of crusts and how they affect the flow and that disturbance of a cyanobacteria-dominated crust results in the breakdown of larger pore spaces and reduces flow rates through the surface layer. We conclude that the XMT–LBM approach is well suited for study of fragile surface crust samples where physical and hydraulic properties cannot be easily quantified using conventional methods.

Acousto-optic effect in microstructured polymer fiber bragg gratings : simulation and experimental overview

A fine control of the microstructured polymer fiber Bragg grating spectrum properties, such as maximum reflected power and 3-dB bandwidth, through acousto-optic modulation is presented. For simulation purposes, the device is modelled as a single structure, comprising a silica horn and a fiber Bragg grating. For similar sized structures a good correlation between the numerical results and the experimental data is obtained, allowing the strain field to be completely characterized along the whole structure. It is also shown that the microstructured polymer fiber Bragg grating requires less effort from the piezoelectric actuator to produce modification in the grating spectrum when compared with a silica fiber Bragg grating. This technique has potential to be applied on tunable optical filters and tunable cavities for photonic applications.

CFD and bubble column reactors:simulation and experiment

The simulation of two-phase flow in bubble columns using commercially available software fromFluent Incorporated is presented here. Data from a bubble column with a ratio of height to thecolumn diameter of 5 : 1 are compared with simulations and experimental results for time-averaged velocity and Reynolds stress proles are used to validate transient, two-dimensional simulations.The models are based on multiphase biological reactors with applications in the food industry. An example case of the mass transfer of oxygen through the liquid phase is also presented.