Dynamical local models for segmentation and prediction of financial time series

In the analysis and prediction of many real-world time series, the assumption of stationarity is not valid. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We introduce a new model which combines a dynamic switching (controlled by a hidden Markov model) and a non-linear dynamical system. We show how to train this hybrid model in a maximum likelihood approach and evaluate its performance on both synthetic and financial data.

Majority versus minority influence and prediction of behavioral intentions and behavior

Two experiments examined the effects of majority and minority influence on attitude-consistent behavioral intentions. In the first experiment, when attitudes were changed via minority influence there was a greater likelihood to engage in an attitude-consistent behavioral intention than when attitudes were changed via majority influence. This suggests that minority influence leads to stronger attitudes (based on systematic processing) that are more predictive of behavioral intentions, while attitude change via majority influence is due to compliance through non-systematic processing. Further support for this interpretation comes from the finding that the amount of message-congruent elaboration mediated behavioral intention. When there was no attitude change, there was no impact on behavioral intention to engage in an attitude-consistent behavior. Experiment 2 explored the role of personal relevance of the topic and also included a real behavioral measure. When the topic was of low personal relevance, the same pattern was found as Experiment 1. When the topic was of high personal relevance, thus increasing the motivation to engage in systematic processing, attitudes changed by both a majority and minority source increased behavioral intention and actual behavior. The results are consistent with the view that both majorities and minorities can lead to different processes and consequences under different situations. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acute and long-term effects of metformin on the function and insulin secretory responsiveness of clonal β-cells

Functional effects of acute and prolonged (48 h) exposure to the biguanide drug metformin were examined in the clonal pancreatic ß-cell line, BRIN-BD11. Effects of metformin on prolonged exposure to excessive increased concentrations of glucose and palmitic acid were also assessed. In acute 20-min incubations, 12.5-50 µm metformin did not alter basal (1.1 mm glucose) or glucose-stimulated (16.7 mm glucose) insulin secretion. However, higher concentrations of metformin (100-1000 µm) increased (1.3-1.5-fold; p

Correlation between visual function and visual ability in patients with uveitis

Aim: To investigate the correlation between tests of visual function and perceived visual ability recorded with a quality of life questionnaire for patients with uveitis. Methods: 132 patients with various types of uveitis were studied. High (monocular and binocular) and low (binocular) contrast logMAR letter acuities were recorded using a Bailey-Lovie chart. Contrast sensitivity (binocular) was determined using a Pelli-Robson chart. Vision related quality of life was assessed using the Vision Specific Quality of Life (VQOL) questionnaire. Results: VQOL declined with reduced performance on the following tests: binocular high contrast visual acuity (p = 0.0011), high contrast visual acuity of the better eye (p = 0.0012), contrast sensitivity (p = 0.005), binocular low contrast visual acuity (p = 0.0065), and high contrast visual acuity of the worse eye (p = 0.015). Stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed binocular high contrast visual acuity (p <0.01) to be the only visual function adequate to predict VQOL. The age of the patient was also significantly associated with perceived visual ability (p <0.001). Conclusions: Binocular high contrast visual acuity is a good measure of how uveitis patients perform in real life situations. Vision quality of life is worst in younger patients with poor binocular visual acuity.

Visual function and subjective quality of life compared in subjects with acquired macular disease

PURPOSE: To determine the objective measures of visual function that are most relevant to subjective quality of vision and perceived reading ability in patients with acquired macular disease. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients with macular disease underwent a comprehensive assessment of visual function. The patients also completed a vision-related quality-of-life questionnaire that included a section of general questions about perceived visual performance and a section with specific questions on reading. RESULTS: Results of all tests of vision correlated highly with reported vision-related quality-of-life impairment. Low-contrast tests explained most of the variance in self-reported problems with reading. Text-reading speed correlated highly with overall concern about vision. CONCLUSIONS: Reading performance is strongly associated with vision-related quality of life. High-contrast distance acuity is not the only relevant measure of visual function in relation to the perceived visual performance of a patient with macular disease. The results suggest the importance of print contrast, even over print size, in reading performance in patients with acquired macular disease.

Lichtspielkunstwerk und Sprachkunstwerk. Zur Funktion und Rolle des Films im oeuvre von Gerhard Roth:the function and role of film in the oeuvre of Gerhard Roth

This article examines the multi-layered interrelation between Gerhard Roth’s writing and film. It charts the corresponding relationship of his early books to their accompanying television documentaries. The main focus of this essay however is on the film adaptation of Stille Ozean (1980) and Landäufiger Tod (1984), the two major novels in his cycle Archive des Shweigens. Supplemented by a look at the two radically different adaptations of his volume of topographical essays on Vienna called Eine Reise in das Innere von Wien (1991), the article also provides a summary overview of the seven dramas written by Roth for Austrian television in the 1990s, some of which were directed by his son Thomas. Finally Roth's approach to the medium of film is being discussed by drawing on the 59 reviews he published between 1995 and 1997 as a film critic for the Austrian magazine NEWS.

The correlation between tests of visual function and perceived visual ability in central field loss patients

Purpose: To investigate the correlation between tests of visual function and perceived visual ability recorded with a 'quality-of-life' questionnaire for patients with central field loss. Method: 12 females and 7 males (mean age = 53.1 years; Range = 23 - 80 years) with subfoveal neovascular membranes underwent a comprehensive assessment of visual function. Tests included unaided distance vision, high and low contrast distance logMAR visual acuity (VA), Pelli-Robson contrast senstivity (at 1m), near logMAR word VA and text reading speed. All tests were done both monocularly and binocularly. The patients also completed a 28 point questionnaire separated into a 'core' section consisting of general questions about perceived visual function and a 'module' section with specific questions on reading function. Results: Step-wise multiple regression analysis was used to determine which visual function tests were correlated with the patients's perceived visual function and to rank them in order of importance. The visual function test that explains most of the variance in both 'core' score (66%0 and the 'module' score (68%) of the questionnaire is low contrast VA in the better eye (P<0.001 in both cases). Further, the module score also accounts for a significant proportion of the variance (P<0.01) of the distance logMAR VA in both the better and worse eye, and the near logMAR in both the better eye and binocularly. Conclusions: The best predictor of both perceived reading ability and of general perceived visual ability in this study is low contrast logMAR VA. The results highlight that distance VA is not the only relevant measure of visual fucntion in relation to a patients's perceived visual performance and should not be considered a determinant of surgical or management success.

The corporatization of community pharmacy:implications for service provision, the public health function, and pharmacy's claims to professional status in the United Kingdom

Background Pharmacy has experienced both incomplete professionalization and deprofessionalization. Since the late 1970s, a concerted attempt has been made to re-professionalize pharmacy in the United Kingdom (UK) through role extension—a key feature of which has been a drive for greater pharmacy involvement in public health. However, the continual corporatization of the UK community pharmacy sector may reduce the professional autonomy of pharmacists and may threaten to constrain attempts at reprofessionalization. Objectives The objectives of the research: to examine the public health activities of community pharmacists in the UK; to explore the attitudes of community pharmacists toward recent relevant UK policy and barriers to the development of their public health function; and, to investigate associations between activity, attitudes, and the type of community pharmacy worked in (eg, supermarket, chain, independent). Methods A self-completion postal questionnaire was sent to a random sample of practicing community pharmacists, stratified for country and sex, within Great Britain (n = 1998), with a follow-up to nonresponders 4 weeks later. Data were analyzed using SPSS (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) (v12.0). A final response rate of 51% (n = 1023/1998) was achieved. Results The level of provision of emergency hormonal contraception on a patient group direction, supervised administration of medicines, and needle-exchange schemes was lower in supermarket pharmacies than in the other types of pharmacy. Respondents believed that supermarkets and the major multiple pharmacy chains held an advantageous position in terms of attracting financing for service development despite suggesting that the premises of such pharmacies may not be the most suitable for the provision of such services. Conclusions A mixed market in community pharmacy may be required to maintain a comprehensive range of pharmacy-based public health services and provide maximum benefit to all patients. Longitudinal monitoring is recommended to ensure that service provision is adequate across the pharmacy network.

The analysis and prediction of the quantity and composition of household refuse

This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

Abnormal retinal vascular function and lipid levels in a sample of healthy UK South Asians

Background/aims To investigate ethnic differences in retinal vascular function and their relationship to traditional risk indicators for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods A total of 90 normoglycaemic subjects (45 South Asian (SA) and 45 age- and gender-matched white Europeans (WEs)) were recruited for the present study. Retinal vessel reactivity to flickering light was assessed by means of the dynamic retinal vessel analyser according to a modified protocol. Fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides (TG), total, LDL and HDL cholesterol were also measured in all individuals. Results SA individuals showed higher fasting triglyceride (p=0.001) and lower HDL levels (p=0.007), leading to a higher TG:HDL-C ratio (p=0.001) than age-matched WE subjects. Additionally, in SAs, the retinal arterial reaction time in response to flicker stimulation was significantly longer in the last flicker cycle than in the WEs (p=0.039), and this change correlated positively with measured plasma TG levels (r=0.60; p=0.01). No such relationship was observed in the WEs (p>0.05). Conclusion Even in the absence of overt vascular disease, in otherwise healthy SAs there are potential signs of retinal vascular function impairment that correlates with established plasma markers for CVD risk.

Anticholinergic medication use and cognitive impairment in the older population:the Medical Research Council cognitive function and ageing study

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the use of medications with possible and definite anticholinergic activity increases the risk of cognitive impairment and mortality in older people and whether risk is cumulative. DESIGN: A 2-year longitudinal study of participants enrolled in the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study between 1991 and 1993. SETTING: Community-dwelling and institutionalized participants. PARTICIPANTS: Thirteen thousand four participants aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline use of possible or definite anticholinergics determined according to the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden Scale and cognition determined using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The main outcome measure was decline in the MMSE score at 2 years. RESULTS: At baseline, 47% of the population used a medication with possible anticholinergic properties, and 4% used a drug with definite anticholinergic properties. After adjusting for age, sex, educational level, social class, number of nonanticholinergic medications, number of comorbid health conditions, and cognitive performance at baseline, use of medication with definite anticholinergic effects was associated with a 0.33-point greater decline in MMSE score (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.03–0.64, P=.03) than not taking anticholinergics, whereas the use of possible anticholinergics at baseline was not associated with further decline (0.02, 95% CI=-0.14–0.11, P=.79). Two-year mortality was greater for those taking definite (OR=1.68; 95% CI=1.30–2.16; P<.001) and possible (OR=1.56; 95% CI=1.36–1.79; P<.001) anticholinergics. CONCLUSION: The use of medications with anticholinergic activity increases the cumulative risk of cognitive impairment and mortality.