12 resultados para 010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling

em Aston University Research Archive


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The aim of the study is to characterize the local muscles motion in individuals undergoing whole body mechanical stimulation. In this study we aim also to evaluate how subject positioning modifies vibration dumping, altering local mechanical stimulus. Vibrations were delivered to subjects by the use of a vibrating platform, while stimulation frequency was increased linearly from 15 to 60Hz. Two different subject postures were here analysed. Platform and muscles motion were monitored using tiny MEMS accelerometers; a contra lateral analysis was also presented. Muscle motion analysis revealed typical displacement trajectories: motion components were found not to be purely sinusoidal neither in phase to each other. Results also revealed a mechanical resonant-like behaviour at some muscles, similar to a second-order system response. Resonance frequencies and dumping factors depended on subject and his positioning. Proper mechanical stimulation can maximize muscle spindle solicitation, which may produce a more effective muscle activation. © 2010 M. Cesarelli et al.

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The effect of friction and interparticle cohesion forces on the gas-solid flow hydrodynamics was discussed. A proposed interparticle cohesion and frictional force terms have been tested in a continuum fully developed flow model to investigate their effect on the general hydrodynamic features of vertical duct flow. It was observed that both terms have direct effect on lowering the material carryover, which implies a reduced bed expansion in freely bubbling column. The parametric analysis shows that cohesion and frictional forces are high when compared to kinetic stress and hence it can play a major role in describing the hydrodynamics features of the flow.

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A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by spatially heterogenous and nonlinear subprocesses that combine with constraining initial and boundary conditions arising from the associated surroundings. While multiple approaches have been made to model landfill statistics by incorporating spatially dependent parameters on the one hand (data based approach) and continuum dynamical mass-balance equations on the other (equation based modelling), practically no attempt has been made to amalgamate these two approaches while also incorporating inherent stochastically induced fluctuations affecting the process overall. In this article, we will implement a minimalist scheme of modelling the time evolution of a realistic three dimensional landfill through a reaction-diffusion based approach, focusing on the coupled interactions of four key variables - solid mass density, hydrolysed mass density, acetogenic mass density and methanogenic mass density, that themselves are stochastically affected by fluctuations, coupled with diffusive relaxation of the individual densities, in ambient surroundings. Our results indicate that close to the linearly stable limit, the large time steady state properties, arising out of a series of complex coupled interactions between the stochastically driven variables, are scarcely affected by the biochemical growth-decay statistics. Our results clearly show that an equilibrium landfill structure is primarily determined by the solid and hydrolysed mass densities only rendering the other variables as statistically "irrelevant" in this (large time) asymptotic limit. The other major implication of incorporation of stochasticity in the landfill evolution dynamics is in the hugely reduced production times of the plants that are now approximately 20-30 years instead of the previous deterministic model predictions of 50 years and above. The predictions from this stochastic model are in conformity with available experimental observations.

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We introduce a novel inversion-based neuro-controller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems that could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. In this work a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained based on importance sampling from these distributions. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The performance of the new algorithm is illustrated through simulations with example systems.

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This thesis describes research into business user involvement in the information systems application building process. The main interest of this research is in establishing and testing techniques to quantify the relationships between identified success factors and the outcome effectiveness of 'business user development' (BUD). The availability of a mechanism to measure the levels of the success factors, and quantifiably relate them to outcome effectiveness, is important in that it provides an organisation with the capability to predict and monitor effects on BUD outcome effectiveness. This is particularly important in an era where BUD levels have risen dramatically, user centred information systems development benefits are recognised as significant, and awareness of the risks of uncontrolled BUD activity is becoming more widespread. This research targets the measurement and prediction of BUD success factors and implementation effectiveness for particular business users. A questionnaire instrument and analysis technique has been tested and developed which constitutes a tool for predicting and monitoring BUD outcome effectiveness, and is based on the BUDES (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope) research model - which is introduced and described in this thesis. The questionnaire instrument is designed for completion by 'business users' - the target community being more explicitly defined as 'people who primarily have a business role within an organisation'. The instrument, named BUD ESP (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope Predictor), can readily be used with survey participants, and has been shown to give meaningful and representative results.

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The rapid developments in computer technology have resulted in a widespread use of discrete event dynamic systems (DEDSs). This type of system is complex because it exhibits properties such as concurrency, conflict and non-determinism. It is therefore important to model and analyse such systems before implementation to ensure safe, deadlock free and optimal operation. This thesis investigates current modelling techniques and describes Petri net theory in more detail. It reviews top down, bottom up and hybrid Petri net synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems and introduces on object oriented methodology to enable modelling of larger and more complex systems. Designs obtained by this methodology are modular, easy to understand and allow re-use of designs. Control is the next logical step in the design process. This thesis reviews recent developments in control DEDSs and investigates the use of Petri nets in the design of supervisory controllers. The scheduling of exclusive use of resources is investigated and an efficient Petri net based scheduling algorithm is designed and a re-configurable controller is proposed. To enable the analysis and control of large and complex DEDSs, an object oriented C++ software tool kit was developed and used to implement a Petri net analysis tool, Petri net scheduling and control algorithms. Finally, the methodology was applied to two industrial DEDSs: a prototype can sorting machine developed by Eurotherm Controls Ltd., and a semiconductor testing plant belonging to SGS Thomson Microelectronics Ltd.

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We investigate the feasibility of simultaneous suppressing of the amplification noise and nonlinearity, representing the most fundamental limiting factors in modern optical communication. To accomplish this task we developed a general design optimisation technique, based on concepts of noise and nonlinearity management. We demonstrate the immense efficiency of the novel approach by applying it to a design optimisation of transmission lines with periodic dispersion compensation using Raman and hybrid Raman-EDFA amplification. Moreover, we showed, using nonlinearity management considerations, that the optimal performance in high bit-rate dispersion managed fibre systems with hybrid amplification is achieved for a certain amplifier spacing – which is different from commonly known optimal noise performance corresponding to fully distributed amplification. Required for an accurate estimation of the bit error rate, the complete knowledge of signal statistics is crucial for modern transmission links with strong inherent nonlinearity. Therefore, we implemented the advanced multicanonical Monte Carlo (MMC) method, acknowledged for its efficiency in estimating distribution tails. We have accurately computed acknowledged for its efficiency in estimating distribution tails. We have accurately computed marginal probability density functions for soliton parameters, by numerical modelling of Fokker-Plank equation applying the MMC simulation technique. Moreover, applying a powerful MMC method we have studied the BER penalty caused by deviations from the optimal decision level in systems employing in-line 2R optical regeneration. We have demonstrated that in such systems the analytical linear approximation that makes a better fit in the central part of the regenerator nonlinear transfer function produces more accurate approximation of the BER and BER penalty. We present a statistical analysis of RZ-DPSK optical signal at direct detection receiver with Mach-Zehnder interferometer demodulation

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Analyzing geographical patterns by collocating events, objects or their attributes has a long history in surveillance and monitoring, and is particularly applied in environmental contexts, such as ecology or epidemiology. The identification of patterns or structures at some scales can be addressed using spatial statistics, particularly marked point processes methodologies. Classification and regression trees are also related to this goal of finding "patterns" by deducing the hierarchy of influence of variables on a dependent outcome. Such variable selection methods have been applied to spatial data, but, often without explicitly acknowledging the spatial dependence. Many methods routinely used in exploratory point pattern analysis are2nd-order statistics, used in a univariate context, though there is also a wide literature on modelling methods for multivariate point pattern processes. This paper proposes an exploratory approach for multivariate spatial data using higher-order statistics built from co-occurrences of events or marks given by the point processes. A spatial entropy measure, derived from these multinomial distributions of co-occurrences at a given order, constitutes the basis of the proposed exploratory methods. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

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Analyzing geographical patterns by collocating events, objects or their attributes has a long history in surveillance and monitoring, and is particularly applied in environmental contexts, such as ecology or epidemiology. The identification of patterns or structures at some scales can be addressed using spatial statistics, particularly marked point processes methodologies. Classification and regression trees are also related to this goal of finding "patterns" by deducing the hierarchy of influence of variables on a dependent outcome. Such variable selection methods have been applied to spatial data, but, often without explicitly acknowledging the spatial dependence. Many methods routinely used in exploratory point pattern analysis are2nd-order statistics, used in a univariate context, though there is also a wide literature on modelling methods for multivariate point pattern processes. This paper proposes an exploratory approach for multivariate spatial data using higher-order statistics built from co-occurrences of events or marks given by the point processes. A spatial entropy measure, derived from these multinomial distributions of co-occurrences at a given order, constitutes the basis of the proposed exploratory methods. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

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The aim of this research was to investigate the integration of computer-aided drafting and finite-element analysis in a linked computer-aided design procedure and to develop the necessary software. The Be'zier surface patch for surface representation was used to bridge the gap between the rather separate fields of drafting and finite-element analysis because the surfaces are defined by analytical functions which allow systematic and controlled variation of the shape and provide continuous derivatives up to any required degree. The objectives of this research were achieved by establishing : (i) A package which interpretes the engineering drawings of plate and shell structures and prepares the Be'zier net necessary for surface representation. (ii) A general purpose stand-alone meshed-surface modelling package for surface representation of plates and shells using the Be'zier surface patch technique. (iii) A translator which adapts the geometric description of plate and shell structures as given by the meshed-surface modeller to the form needed by the finite-element analysis package. The translator was extended to suit fan impellers by taking advantage of their sectorial symmetry. The linking processes were carried out for simple test structures, simplified and actual fan impellers to verify the flexibility and usefulness of the linking technique adopted. Finite-element results for thin plate and shell structures showed excellent agreement with those obtained by other investigators while results for the simplified and actual fan impellers also showed good agreement with those obtained in an earlier investigation where finite-element analysis input data were manually prepared. Some extensions of this work have also been discussed.

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The state of the art in productivity measurement and analysis shows a gap between simple methods having little relevance in practice and sophisticated mathematical theory which is unwieldy for strategic and tactical planning purposes, -particularly at company level. An extension is made in this thesis to the method of productivity measurement and analysis based on the concept of added value, appropriate to those companies in which the materials, bought-in parts and services change substantially and a number of plants and inter-related units are involved in providing components for final assembly. Reviews and comparisons of productivity measurement dealing with alternative indices and their problems have been made and appropriate solutions put forward to productivity analysis in general and the added value method in particular. Based on this concept and method, three kinds of computerised models two of them deterministic, called sensitivity analysis and deterministic appraisal, and the third one, stochastic, called risk simulation, have been developed to cope with the planning of productivity and productivity growth with reference to the changes in their component variables, ranging from a single value 'to• a class interval of values of a productivity distribution. The models are designed to be flexible and can be adjusted according to the available computer capacity expected accuracy and 'presentation of the output. The stochastic model is based on the assumption of statistical independence between individual variables and the existence of normality in their probability distributions. The component variables have been forecasted using polynomials of degree four. This model is tested by comparisons of its behaviour with that of mathematical model using real historical data from British Leyland, and the results were satisfactory within acceptable levels of accuracy. Modifications to the model and its statistical treatment have been made as required. The results of applying these measurements and planning models to the British motor vehicle manufacturing companies are presented and discussed.