29 resultados para [JEL:E3] Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

em Aston University Research Archive


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This paper analyses the asymmetries in the response of petrol prices to oil price shocks. We show that previous work, based on the determination of asymmetric responses, can be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries in short term dynamics. The paper shows that a significant determinant of the response of petrol prices to oil price changes, is the extent to which petrol price can be seen to have departed from its long run equilibrium level.

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The petrol industry has been investigated twice by the Monopolies and Mergers Commission in the last 20 years. On both occasions the MMC found that the conduct of the companies was not against the public interest. These findings were based on the perceived stable relationship between oil and petrol prices. This paper develops a model of petrol price using a co-integration approach, concluding that one must question the findings of the MMC.

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We examine the extent to which outward FDI from Taiwan to mainland China has contributed to the rising unemployment rate in Taiwan. Further, it examines whether outward FDI has contributed to productivity growth in Taiwan, and the importance of linkages between sectors in determining these effects. We provide strong evidence that Taiwanese firms have increased their investments in China, and that this has lead to a reduction in employment in such sectors at home. Further, we show that these effects are also translated up the supply chain, such that outward FDI also leads to a reduction in employment upstream in the supply chain.

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This article investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI)location across Italian provinces. Specifically it examines the relationship between industry- specific local industrial systems and the location of inward FDI. This extends previous analysis beyond the mere density of activity, to illustrate the importance of the specific nature of agglomerations in attracting inward investment. The article develops a model of FDI location choice using a unique FDI database stratified by industry and province. The results also suggest that the importance of agglomeration differs between industries, and offers some explanation for this.

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Using data from the UK Census of Production, including foreign ownership data, and information from UK industry input-output tables, this paper examines whether the intensity of transactions linkages between foreign and domestic firms affects productivity growth in domestic manufacturing industries. The implications of the findings for policies promoting linkages between multinational and domestic firms in the UK economy are outlined.

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This paper tests, at the regional and industry level, the extent to which domestic investment is stimulated or crowded out by inward foreign direct investment. The paper develops a model of domestic investment, based on standard models drawn from macroeconomics and industrial economics. The paper then goes on to show that, at a general level, the 'development' or agglomeration hypothesis is confirmed that domestic investment is indeed stimulated by inward investment. However, there is also evidence that, in certain regions, inward investment has crowded out domestic investment. The implications of this from the perspective of regional policy are briefly discussed.

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This paper examines the relationship between the transfer of ownership between the public and private sectors of Chinese industry, and its impacts on performance. We link ownership changes to productivity growth, and demonstrate that privatisation contributes significantly. We offer an extension that is generally ignored in the literature, in looking at firms that are taken back into state ownership, and evaluating the productivity growth effects of this. Further, we highlight the well-understood simultaneity problems, and demonstrate the hazard of ignoring the issue by comparing various estimators, including the modified control function approach. In general, the results stress the importance of allowing for such endogeneity when evaluating the productivity effects of ownership change.

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This paper investigates the effects of domestic privatisation or foreign acquisition of Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) on employment growth, using firm level data for China and a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences in order to identify the causal effect. Our results suggest that, controlling for output growth there is some evidence that domestic privatisation leads to contemporaneous reductions in employment growth compared to firms that did not undergo an ownership change. By contrast, there is some evidence that foreign acquisitions show higher employment growth in the post acquisition period than non-acquired SOEs.

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Using a comprehensive firm-level data set from China spanning the period 1998–2005, this study investigates the relationship between firm size, financing sources, and total factor productivity growth. Controlling for the endogeneity of financing sources, we find that firm size plays an important role in the way financial structure affects the growth process. Domestic bank loans are more effective for bigger firms, while self-raised finance is more beneficial to smaller firms’ growth. We also uncover evidence that ownership mediates the relationship between firm size, finance, and growth.

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This article tests a set of hypotheses relating to agency and Schumpeterian views on how competition affects performance. A survey data set of Australian workplaces is used, with the change in labour productivity as the dependent variable. The results show strong support for the idea that intense competition raises productivity growth in managerial workplaces, but not in non-managerial workplaces (i.e. where the principal owner also works). Testing the agency theories in more detail, we find no evidence that the number of competitors, the price elasticity of demand or a proxy for bankruptcy (pre-tax losses) are the mechanisms behind the process. For non-managerial workplaces the results indicate support for the idea that greater demand uncertainty reduces productivity growth. In contrast, for managerial workplaces, greater demand uncertainty tends to raise productivity growth.

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Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of the earnings announcements of Greek listed firms from 2001 to 2008. Using the classical event study methodology and regression analysis, we find that firms tend to release good news on time and are inclined to delay the release of bad news. We also provide evidence that the level of corporate risk differentiates the information content of earnings according to the credit rating category. Specifically, firms displaying high creditworthiness enjoy positive excess returns on earnings announcement dates. In contrast, firms with low creditworthiness undergo significant share price erosions on earnings announcement days. We also observe a substitution effect between timeliness and credit ratings in relation to the information content of earnings announcements. Specifically, we find that as the credit category of earnings-announcing firms improves, the informational role of timeliness is mitigated.

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This article demonstrates that raising fixed costs can serve as a credible mechanism for a well placed firm to exclude its rivals. We identify a number of credible avenues, such as increased regulation, vexatious litigation and increased prices for essential inputs, through which such a firm can raise fixed costs. We show that for a wide range of oligopoly models this may be a profitable strategy, even if the firm’s own fixed costs are affected as much (or even more) than its rivals and even if it is less efficient. The resulting reduction in the number of firms in the market is detrimental to consumer welfare and hence worthy of scrutiny by competition and regulatory authorities.

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This paper extends previous analyses of the choice between internal and external R&D to consider the costs of internal R&D. The Heckman two-stage estimator is used to estimate the determinants of internal R&D unit cost (i.e. cost per product innovation) allowing for sample selection effects. Theory indicates that R&D unit cost will be influenced by scale issues and by the technological opportunities faced by the firm. Transaction costs encountered in research activities are allowed for and, in addition, consideration is given to issues of market structure which influence the choice of R&D mode without affecting the unit cost of internal or external R&D. The model is tested on data from a sample of over 500 UK manufacturing plants which have engaged in product innovation. The key determinants of R&D mode are the scale of plant and R&D input, and market structure conditions. In terms of the R&D cost equation, scale factors are again important and have a non-linear relationship with R&D unit cost. Specificities in physical and human capital also affect unit cost, but have no clear impact on the choice of R&D mode. There is no evidence of technological opportunity affecting either R&D cost or the internal/external decision.

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This paper examines an issue that has received considerable comment but little analysis. It has often been argued that the presence of the keiretsu in Japan has been instrumental in deterring multinational firms from entering Japan, though evidence for this is patchy. We present some new analysis of this issue, thereby evaluating the effects of keiretsu on inward investment penetration in Japan. In contrast to previous work in this area, our results suggest that there is little relationship between inward FDI and keiretsu networks, once one controls for endogeneity and unobservable heterogeneity. The results illustrate some important interaction effects between keiretsu and other explanatory variables that explain differences in inward investment penetration. © 2012 Copyright International Journal of the Economics of Business.