31 resultados para [JEL:C5] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Econometric Modeling

em Aston University Research Archive


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Healthcare providers and policy makers are faced with an ever-increasing number of medical publications. Searching for relevant information and keeping up to date with new research findings remains a constant challenge. It has been widely acknowledged that narrative reviews of the literature are susceptible to several types of bias and a systematic approach may protect against these biases. The aim of this thesis was to apply quantitative methods in the assessment of outcomes of topical therapies for psoriasis. In particular, to systematically examine the comparative efficacy, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of topical calcipotriol in the treatment of mild-to-moderate psoriasis. Over the years, a wide range of techniques have been used to evaluate the severity of psoriasis and the outcomes from treatment. This lack of standardisation complicates the direct comparison of results and ultimately the pooling of outcomes from different clinical trials. There is a clear requirement for more comprehensive tools for measuring drug efficacy and disease severity in psoriasis. Ideally, the outcome measures need to be simple, relevant, practical, and widely applicable, and the instruments should be reliable, valid and responsive. The results of the meta-analysis reported herein show that calcipotriol is an effective antipsoriatic agent. In the short-tenn, the pooled data found calcipotriol to be more effective than calcitriol, tacalcitol, coal tar and short-contact dithranol. Only potent corticosteroids appeared to have comparable efficacy, with less short-term side-effects. Potent corticosteroids also added to the antipsoriatic effect of calcipotriol, and appeared to suppress the occurrence of calcipotriol-induced irritation. There was insufficient evidence to support any large effects in favour of improvements in efficacy when calcipotriol is used in combination with systemic therapies in patients with severe psoriasis. However, there was a total absence of long-term morbidity data on the effectiveness of any of the interventions studied. Decision analysis showed that, from the perspective of the NHS as payer, the relatively small differences in efficacy between calcipotriol and short-contact dithranol lead to large differences in the direct cost of treating patients with mildto-moderate plaque psoriasis. Further research is needed to examine the clinical and economic issues affecting patients under treatment for psoriasis in the UK. In particular, the maintenance value and cost/benefit ratio for the various treatment strategies, and the assessment of patient's preferences has not yet been adequately addressed for this chronic recurring disease.

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The last decade has seen a considerable increase in the application of quantitative methods in the study of histological sections of brain tissue and especially in the study of neurodegenerative disease. These disorders are characterised by the deposition and aggregation of abnormal or misfolded proteins in the form of extracellular protein deposits such as senile plaques (SP) and intracellular inclusions such as neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). Quantification of brain lesions and studying the relationships between lesions and normal anatomical features of the brain, including neurons, glial cells, and blood vessels, has become an important method of elucidating disease pathogenesis. This review describes methods for quantifying the abundance of a histological feature such as density, frequency, and 'load' and the sampling methods by which quantitative measures can be obtained including plot/quadrat sampling, transect sampling, and the point-quarter method. In addition, methods for determining the spatial pattern of a histological feature, i.e., whether the feature is distributed at random, regularly, or is aggregated into clusters, are described. These methods include the use of the Poisson and binomial distributions, pattern analysis by regression, Fourier analysis, and methods based on mapped point patterns. Finally, the statistical methods available for studying the degree of spatial correlation between pathological lesions and neurons, glial cells, and blood vessels are described.

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Findings on growth regulating activities of the end-product of lipid peroxidation 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (HNE), which acts as a “second messenger of free radicals”, overlapped with the development of antibodies specific for the aldehyde-protein adducts. These led to qualitative immunochemical determinations of the HNE presence in various pathophysiological processes and to the change of consideration of the aldehyde’s bioactivities from toxicity into cell signalling. Moreover, findings of the HNE-protein adduct in various organs under physiological circumstances support the concept of “oxidative homeostasis”, which implies that oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation are not only pathological but also physiological processes. Reactive aldehydes, at least HNE, could play important role in oxidative homeostasis, while complementary research approaches might reveal the relevance of the aldehydic-protein adducts as major biomarkers of oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation and oxidative homeostasis. Aiming to join efforts in such research activities researchers interacting through the International 4-Hydroxynonenal Club acting within the SFRR-International and through networking projects of the system of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) carried validation of the methods for lipid peroxidation and further developed the genuine 4-HNE-His ELISA founding quantitative and qualitative methods for detection of 4-HNE-His adducts as valuable tool to study oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation in cell cultures, various organs and tissues and eventually for human plasma and serum analyses [1]. Reference: 1. Weber, Daniela. Lidija, Milkovic. Measurement of HNE-protein adducts in human plasma and serum by ELISA—Comparison of two primary antibodies. Redox Biol. 2013. 226-233.

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Background There is a paucity of data describing the prevalence of childhood refractive error in the United Kingdom. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, along with its sister study the Aston Eye Study, are the first population-based surveys of children using both random cluster sampling and cycloplegic autorefraction to quantify levels of refractive error in the United Kingdom. Methods Children aged 6–7 years and 12–13 years were recruited from a stratified random sample of primary and post-primary schools, representative of the population of Northern Ireland as a whole. Measurements included assessment of visual acuity, oculomotor balance, ocular biometry and cycloplegic binocular open-field autorefraction. Questionnaires were used to identify putative risk factors for refractive error. Results 399 (57%) of 6–7 years and 669 (60%) of 12–13 years participated. School participation rates did not vary statistically significantly with the size of the school, whether the school is urban or rural, or whether it is in a deprived/non-deprived area. The gender balance, ethnicity and type of schooling of participants are reflective of the Northern Ireland population. Conclusions The study design, sample size and methodology will ensure accurate measures of the prevalence of refractive errors in the target population and will facilitate comparisons with other population-based refractive data.

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The correction of presbyopia and restoration of true accommodative function to the ageing eye is the focus of much ongoing research and clinical work. A range of accommodating intraocular lenses (AIOLs) implanted during cataract surgery has been developed and they are designed to change either their position or shape in response to ciliary muscle contraction to generate an increase in dioptric power. Two main design concepts exist. First, axial shift concepts rely on anterior axial movement of one or two optics creating accommodative ability. Second, curvature change designs are designed to provide significant amplitudes of accommodation with little physical displacement. Single-optic devices have been used most widely, although the true accommodative ability provided by forward shift of the optic appears limited and recent findings indicate that alternative factors such as flexing of the optic to alter ocular aberrations may be responsible for the enhanced near vision reported in published studies. Techniques for analysing the performance of AIOLs have not been standardised and clinical studies have reported findings using a wide range of both subjective and objective methods, making it difficult to gauge the success of these implants. There is a need for longitudinal studies using objective methods to assess long-term performance of AIOLs and to determine if true accommodation is restored by the designs available. While dual-optic and curvature change IOLs are designed to provide greater amplitudes of accommodation than is possible with single-optic devices, several of these implants are in the early stages of development and require significant further work before human use is possible. A number of challenges remain and must be addressed before the ultimate goal of restoring youthful levels of accommodation to the presbyopic eye can be achieved.

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Correlation and regression are two of the statistical procedures most widely used by optometrists. However, these tests are often misused or interpreted incorrectly, leading to erroneous conclusions from clinical experiments. This review examines the major statistical tests concerned with correlation and regression that are most likely to arise in clinical investigations in optometry. First, the use, interpretation and limitations of Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient are described. Second, the least squares method of fitting a linear regression to data and for testing how well a regression line fits the data are described. Third, the problems of using linear regression methods in observational studies, if there are errors associated in measuring the independent variable and for predicting a new value of Y for a given X, are discussed. Finally, methods for testing whether a non-linear relationship provides a better fit to the data and for comparing two or more regression lines are considered.

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This thesis presents theoretical investigation of three topics concerned with nonlinear optical pulse propagation in optical fibres. The techniques used are mathematical analysis and numerical modelling. Firstly, dispersion-managed (DM) solitons in fibre lines employing a weak dispersion map are analysed by means of a perturbation approach. In the case of small dispersion map strengths the average pulse dynamics is described by a perturbation approach (NLS) equation. Applying a perturbation theory, based on the Inverse Scattering Transform method, an analytic expression for the envelope of the DM soliton is derived. This expression correctly predicts the power enhancement arising from the dispersion management.Secondly, autosoliton transmission in DM fibre systems with periodical in-line deployment of nonlinear optical loop mirrors (NOLMs) is investigated. The use of in-line NOLMs is addressed as a general technique for all-optical passive 2R regeneration of return-to-zero data in high speed transmission system with strong dispersion management. By system optimisation, the feasibility of ultra-long single-channel and wavelength-division multiplexed data transmission at bit-rates ³ 40 Gbit s-1 in standard fibre-based systems is demonstrated. The tolerance limits of the results are defined.Thirdly, solutions of the NLS equation with gain and normal dispersion, that describes optical pulse propagation in an amplifying medium, are examined. A self-similar parabolic solution in the energy-containing core of the pulse is matched through Painlevé functions to the linear low-amplitude tails. The analysis provides a full description of the features of high-power pulses generated in an amplifying medium.

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The underlying work to this thesis focused on the exploitation and investigation of photosensitivity mechanisms in optical fibres and planar waveguides for the fabrication of advanced integrated optical devices for telecoms and sensing applications. One major scope is the improvement of grating fabrication specifications by introducing new writing techniques and the use of advanced characterisation methods for grating testing. For the first time the polarisation control method for advanced grating fabrication has successfully been converted to apodised planar waveguide fabrication and the development of a holographic method for the inscription of chirped gratings at arbitrary wavelength is presented. The latter resulted in the fabrication of gratings for pulse-width suppression and wavelength selection in diode lasers. In co-operation with research partners a number of samples were tested using optical frequency domain and optical low coherence reflectometry for a better insight into the limitations of grating writing techniques. Using a variety of different fabrication methods, custom apodised and chirped fibre Bragg gratings were written for the use as filter elements for multiplexer-demultiplexer devices, as well as for short pulse generation and wavelength selection in telecommunication transmission systems. Long period grating based devices in standard, speciality and tapered fibres are presented, showing great potential for multi-parameter sensing. One particular scope is the development of vectorial curvature and refractive index sensors with potential for medical, chemical and biological sensing. In addition the design of an optically tunable Mach-Zehnder based multiwavelength filter is introduced. The discovery of a Type IA grating type through overexposure of hydrogen loaded standard and Boron-Germanium co-doped fibres strengthened the assumption of UV-photosensitivity being a highly non-linear process. Gratings of this type show a significantly lower thermal sensitivity compared to standard gratings, which makes them useful for sensing applications. An Oxford Lasers copper-vapour laser operating at 255 nm in pulsed mode was used for their inscription, in contrast to previous work using CW-Argon-Ion lasers and contributing to differences in the processes of the photorefractive index change

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Counts of Pick bodies (PB), Pick cells (PC), senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) were made in the frontal and temporal cortex from patients with Pick's disease (PD). Lesions were stained histologically with hematoxylin and eosin (HE) and the Bielschowsky silver impregnation method and labeled immunohistochemically with antibodies raised to ubiquitin and tau. The greatest numbers of PB were revealed by immunohistochemistry. Counts of PB revealed by ubiquitin and tau were highly positively correlated which suggested that the two antibodies recognized virtually identical populations of PB. The greatest numbers of PC were revealed by HE followed by the anti-ubiquitin antibody. However, the correlation between counts was poor, suggesting that HE and ubiquitin revealed different populations of PC. The greatest numbers of SP and NFT were revealed by the Bielschowsky method indicating the presence of Alzheimer-type lesions not revealed by the immunohistochemistry. In addition, more NFT were revealed by the anti-ubiquitin compared with the anti-tau antibody. The data suggested that in PD: (i) the anti-ubiquitin and anti-tau antibodies were equally effective at labeling PB; (ii) both HE and anti-ubiquitin should be used to quantitate PC; and (iii) the Bielschowsky method should be used to quantitate SP and NFT.

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A dry matrix application for matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry imaging (MALDI MSI) was used to profile the distribution of 4-bromophenyl-1,4-diazabicyclo(3.2.2)nonane-4-carboxylate, monohydrochloride (BDNC, SSR180711) in rat brain tissue sections. Matrix application involved applying layers of finely ground dry alpha-cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic acid (CHCA) to the surface of tissue sections thaw mounted onto MALDI targets. It was not possible to detect the drug when applying matrix in a standard aqueous-organic solvent solution. The drug was detected at higher concentrations in specific regions of the brain, particularly the white matter of the cerebellum. Pseudomultiple reaction monitoring imaging was used to validate that the observed distribution was the target compound. The semiquantitative data obtained from signal intensities in the imaging was confirmed by laser microdissection of specific regions of the brain directed by the imaging, followed by hydrophilic interaction chromatography in combination with a quantitative high-resolution mass spectrometry method. This study illustrates that a dry matrix coating is a valuable and complementary matrix application method for analysis of small polar drugs and metabolites that can be used for semiquantitative analysis.

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This thesis explores the processes of team innovation. It utilises two studies, an organisationally based pilot and an experimental study, to examine and identify aspects of teams' behaviours that are important for successful innovative outcome. The pilot study, based in two automotive manufacturers, involved the collection of team members' experiences through semi-structured interviews, and identified a number of factors that affected teams' innovative performance. These included: the application of ideative & dissemination processes; the importance of good team relationships, especially those of a more informal nature, in facilitating information and ideative processes; the role of external linkages in enhancing quality and radicality of innovations; and the potential attenuation of innovative ideas by time deadlines. This study revealed a number key team behaviours that may be important in successful innovation outcomes. These included; goal setting, idea generation and development, external contact, task and personal information exchange, leadership, positive feedback and resource deployment. These behaviours formed the basis of a coding system used in the second part of the research. Building on the results from the field based research, an experimental study was undertaken to examine the behavioural differences between three groups of sixteen teams undertaking innovative an task to produce an anti-drugs poster. They were randomly assigned to one of three innovation category conditions suggested by King and Anderson (1990), emergent, imported and imposed. These conditions determined the teams level of access to additional information on previously successful campaigns and the degree of freedom they had with regarding to the design of the poster. In addition, a further experimental condition was imposed on half of the teams per category which involved a formal time deadline for task completion. The teams were video taped for the duration of their innovation and their behaviours analysed and coded in five main aspects including; ideation, external focus, goal setting, interpersonal, directive and resource related activities. A panel of experts, utilising five scales developed from West and Anderson's (1996) innovation outcome measures, assessed the teams' outputs. ANOVAs and repeated measure ANOVAs were deployed to identify whether there were significant differences between the different conditions. The results indicated that there were some behavioural differences between the categories and that over the duration of the task behavioural changes were identified. The results, however, revealed a complex picture and suggested limited support for three distinctive innovation categories. There were many differences in behaviours, but rarely between more than two of the categories. A main finding was the impact that different levels of constraint had in changing teams' focus of attention. For example, emergent teams were found to use both their own team and external resources, whilst those who could import information about other successful campaigns were likely to concentrate outside the team and pay limited attention to the internal resources available within the team. In contrast, those operating under task constraints with aspects of the task imposed onto them were more likely to attend to internal team resources and pay limited attention to the external world. As indicated by the earlier field study, time deadlines did significantly change teams' behaviour, reducing ideative and information exchange behaviours. The model shows an important behavioural progression related to innovate teams. This progression involved the teams' openness initially to external sources, and then to the intra-team environment. Premature closure on the final idea before their mid-point was found to have a detrimental impact on team's innovation. Ideative behaviour per se was not significant for innovation outcome, instead the development of intra-team support and trust emerged as crucial. Analysis of variance revealed some limited differentiation between the behaviours of teams operating under the aforementioned three innovation categories. There were also distinct detrimental differences in the behaviour of those operating under a time deadline. Overall, the study identified the complex interrelationships of team behaviours and outcomes, and between teams and their context.

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Contrary to previously held beliefs, it is now known that bacteria exist not only on the surface of the skin but they are also distributed at varying depths beneath the skin surface. Hence, in order to sterilise the skin, antimicrobial agents are required to penetrate across the skin and eliminate the bacteria residing at all depths. Chlorhexidine is an antimicrobial agent with the widest use for skin sterilisation. However, due to its poor permeation rate across the skin, sterilisation of the skin cannot be achieved and, therefore, the remaining bacteria can act as a source of infection during an operation or insertion of catheters. The underlying theme of this study is to enhance the permeation of this antimicrobial agent in the skin by employing chemical (enhancers and supersaturated systems) or physical (iontophoresis) techniques. The hydrochloride salt of chlorhexidine (CHX), a poorly soluble salt, was used throughout this study. The effect of ionisation on in vitro permeation rate across the excised human epidennis was investigated using Franz-type diffusion cells. Saturated solutions of CHX were used as donor and the variable studied was vehicle pH. Permeation rate was increased with increasing vehicle pH. The pH effect was not related to the level of ionisation of the drug. The effect of donor vehicle was also studied using saturated solutions of CHX in 10% and 20% ethanol as the donor solutions. Permeation of CHX was enhanced by increasing the concentration of ethanol which could be due to the higher concentration of CHX in the donor phase and the effect of ethanol itself on the membrane. The interplay between drug diffusion and enhancer pretreatment of the epidennis was studied. Pretreatment of the membrane with 10% Azone/PG demonstrated the highest diffusion rate followed by 10% olcic acid/PG pretreatment compared to other pretreatment regimens (ethanol, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), propylene glycol (PG), sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) and dodecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (DT AB). Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) was also employed to study the mode of action of these enhancers. The potential of supersaturated solutions in enhancing percutaneous absorption of CHX was investigated. Various anti-nucleating polymers were screened in order to establish the most effective agent. Polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP, K30) was found to be a better candidate than its lower molecular weight counterpart (K25) and hydroxypropyl methyleellulose (HPMC). The permeation studies showed an increase in diffusion rate by increasing the degree of saturation. Iontophoresis is a physical means of transdemal drug delivery enhancement that causes an increased penetration of molecules into or through the skin by the application of an electric field. This technique was employed in conjunction with chemical enhancers to assess the effect on CHX permeation across the human epidermis. An improved transport of CHX, which was pH dependant was observed upon application of the current. Combined use of iontophoresis and chemical enhancers further increased the CHX transport indicating a synergistic effect. Pretreatment of the membrane with 10% Azone/PG demonstrated the greatest effect.

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An apparatus was developed to project spinning golf balls directly onto golf greens. This employed a modified baseball/practice machine with two counter-rotating pneumatic wheels. The speed of the wheels could be varied independently allowing backspin to be given to the ball. The ball was projected into a darkened enclosure where the motion of the ball before and after impacting with the turf was recorded using a still camera and a stroboscope. The resulting photographs contained successive images of the ball on a single frame of film. The apparatus was tested on eighteen golf courses resulting in 721 photographs of impacts. Statistical analysis was carried out on the results of the photographs and from this, two types of green emerged. On the first, the ball tended to rebound with topspin, while on the second, the ball retained backspin after impact if the initial backspin was greater than about 350 rads-1. Eleven tests were devised to determine the characteristics of greens and statistical techniques were used to analyse the relationships between these tests. These showed the effects of the green characteristics on ball/turf impacts. It was found that the ball retained backspin on greens that were freely drained and had less than 60% of Poa annua (annual meadow grass) in their swards. Visco-elastic models were used to simulate the impact of the ball with the turf. Impacts were simulated by considering the ball to be rigid and the turf to be a two layered system consisting of springs and dampers. The model showed good agreement with experiment and was used to simulate impacts from two different shots onto two contrasting types of green.

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Silicon carbide ceramics are candidate materials for use in aggressive environments, including those where aqueous acids are present. Standard corrosion testing methods such as immersion testing are not always sufficiently sensitive for these ceramics owing to the very low, almost unobservable, corrosion rates encountered. Using electrochemical methods the corrosion processes can be assisted, leading to higher rates and thus the elucidation of reaction mechanisms. The behaviour of a sintered and a reaction bonded silicon carbide has been investigated in aqueous HCl, HF, HNO3, and H2SO4, using standard immersion and new electrochemical methods. Both materials were passive in HCl, HNO3, and H2SO4 because of the formation of a surface silica film, and were active in HF. In HF, corrosion of sintered silicon carbide was slight and the residual silicon was removed from reaction bonded specimens.