Bayesian inference for wind field retrieval

In many problems in spatial statistics it is necessary to infer a global problem solution by combining local models. A principled approach to this problem is to develop a global probabilistic model for the relationships between local variables and to use this as the prior in a Bayesian inference procedure. We show how a Gaussian process with hyper-parameters estimated from Numerical Weather Prediction Models yields meteorologically convincing wind fields. We use neural networks to make local estimates of wind vector probabilities. The resulting inference problem cannot be solved analytically, but Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods allow us to retrieve accurate wind fields.

Description and critical appraisal of principal components analysis (PCA) methodology applied to pulsed-field gel electrophoresis profiles of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus isolates

Principal components analysis (PCA) has been described for over 50 years; however, it is rarely applied to the analysis of epidemiological data. In this study PCA was critically appraised in its ability to reveal relationships between pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles of methicillin- resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in comparison to the more commonly employed cluster analysis and representation by dendrograms. The PFGE type following SmaI chromosomal digest was determined for 44 multidrug-resistant hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MR-HA-MRSA) isolates, two multidrug-resistant community-acquired MRSA (MR-CA-MRSA), 50 hospital-acquired MRSA (HA-MRSA) isolates (from the University Hospital Birmingham, NHS Trust, UK) and 34 community-acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) isolates (from general practitioners in Birmingham, UK). Strain relatedness was determined using Dice band-matching with UPGMA clustering and PCA. The results indicated that PCA revealed relationships between MRSA strains, which were more strongly correlated with known epidemiology, most likely because, unlike cluster analysis, PCA does not have the constraint of generating a hierarchic classification. In addition, PCA provides the opportunity for further analysis to identify key polymorphic bands within complex genotypic profiles, which is not always possible with dendrograms. Here we provide a detailed description of a PCA method for the analysis of PFGE profiles to complement further the epidemiological study of infectious disease. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stock repurchases and treasury share sales: Do they stabilize price and enhance liquidity?

The article studies the impact of a firm’s trading in its own shares on the volatility and market liquidity of the firm’s stock in the Italian stock market. In the study, both stock repurchases and treasury share sales executed on the open market are defined as trading in own shares. The study finds that Italian firms can reduce the volatility of their stock and boost market liquidity by trading their own shares.

Development of a questionnaire to assess the relative subjective benefits of presbyopia correction

Purpose To develop a standardized questionnaire of near visual function and satisfaction to complement visual function evaluations of presbyopic corrections. Setting Eye Clinic, School of Life and Health Sciences, Aston University, Midland Eye Institute and Solihull Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom. Design Questionnaire development. Methods A preliminary 26-item questionnaire of previously used near visual function items was completed by patients with monofocal intraocular lenses (IOLs), multifocal IOLs, accommodating IOLs, multifocal contact lenses, or varifocal spectacles. Rasch analysis was used for item reduction, after which internal and test–retest reliabilities were determined. Construct validity was determined by correlating the resulting Near Activity Visual Questionnaire (NAVQ) scores with near visual acuity and critical print size (CPS), which was measured using the Minnesota Low Vision Reading Test chart. Discrimination ability was assessed through receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results One hundred fifty patients completed the questionnaire. Item reduction resulted in a 10-item NAVQ with excellent separation (2.92), internal consistency (Cronbach a = 0.95), and test–retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.72). Correlations of questionnaire scores with near visual acuity (r = 0.32) and CPS (r = 0.27) provided evidence of validity, and discrimination ability was excellent (area under ROC curve = 0.91). Conclusion Results show the NAVQ is a reliable, valid instrument that can be incorporated into the evaluation of presbyopic corrections.

Admissible monetary aggregates for the Euro area

We use the Fleissig and Whitney (2003) weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the Euro area. We find that the Euro area monetary assets in M2 and M3 are weakly separable and construct admissible Divisia monetary aggregates for these assets. We evaluate the Divisia aggregates as indicator variables, building on Nelson (2002), Reimers (2002), and Stracca (2004). Specifically, we show that real growth of the admissible Divisia aggregates enter the Euro area IS curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005. Out of sample, we show that Divisia M2 and M3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting Euro area inflation.

The virtual pedagogy initiative

Contemporary Higher Education Institutions must adapt to address government funded calls for expansion and widened participation. The adoption of e-learning strategies, such as the use of the podcasts, can facilitate flexible learning around the needs and expectations of students. In this article we outline a number of e-learning developments at Aston University collectively referred to as the Virtual Pedagogy Initiative. Each of the strands, podcasts, vodcasts, mobile telephony and the campus wide remote broadcasts, are described pedagogically as well as technically. Where possible data highlighting the student response and experience are included. The article begins with the contention that contemporary undergraduates may be qualitatively different and can considered „digital natives?.

The growing importance of inter-company collaboration

Guest editorial: This special issue has been drawn from papers that were published as part of the Second European Conference on Management of Technology (EuroMOT) which was held at Aston Business School (Birmingham, UK) 10-12 September 2006. This was the official European conference for the International Association for Management of Technology (IAMOT); the overall theme of the conference was “Technology and global integration.” There were many high-calibre papers submitted to the conference and published in the associated proceedings (Bennett et al., 2006). The streams of interest that emerged from these submissions were the importance of: technology strategy, innovation, process technologies, managing change, national policies and systems, research and development, supply chain technology, service and operational technology, education and training, small company incubation, technology transfer, virtual operations, technology in developing countries, partnership and alliance, and financing and investment. This special issue focuses upon the streams of interest that accentuate the importance of collaboration between different organisations. Such organisations vary greatly in character; for instance, they may be large or small, publicly or privately owned, and operate in manufacturing or service sectors. Despite these varying characteristics they all have something in common; they all stress the importance of inter-organisational collaboration as a critical success factor for their organisation. In today's global economy it is essential that organisations decide what their core competencies are what those of complementing organisations are. Core competences should be developed to become a bases of differentiation, leverage and competitive advantage, whilst those that are less mature should be outsourced to other organisations that can claim to have had more recognition and success in that particular core competence (Porter, 2001). This strategic trend can be observed throughout advanced economies and is growing strongly. If a posteriori reasoning is applied here it follows that organisations could continue to become more specialised in fewer areas whilst simultaneously becoming more dependent upon other organisations for critical parts of their operations. Such actions seem to fly in the face of rational business strategy and so the question must be asked: why are organisations developing this way? The answer could lie in the recent changes in endogenous and exogenous factors of the organisation; the former emphasising resource-based issues in the short-term, and strategic positioning in the long-term whilst the later emphasises transaction costs in the short-term and acquisition of new skills and knowledge in the long-term. For a harmonious balance of these forces to prevail requires organisations to firstly declare a shared meta-strategy, then to put some cross-organisational processes into place which have their routine operations automated as far as possible. A rolling business plan would review, assess and reposition each organisation within this meta-strategy according to how well they have contributed (Binder and Clegg, 2006). The important common issue here is that an increasing number of businesses today are gaining direct benefit from increasing their levels of inter-organisational collaboration. Such collaboration has largely been possible due to recent technological advances which can make organisational structures more agile (e.g. the extended or the virtual enterprise), organisational infra-structure more connected, and the sharing of real-time information an operational reality. This special issue consists of research papers that have explored the above phenomenon in some way. For instance, the role of government intervention, the use of internet-based technologies, the role of research and development organisations, the changing relationships between start-ups and established firms, the importance of cross-company communities of practice, the practice of networking, the front-loading of large-scale projects, innovation and the probabilistic uncertainties that organisations experience are explored in these papers. The cases cited in these papers are limited as they have a Eurocentric focus. However, it is hoped that readers of this special issue will gain a valuable insight into the increasing importance of collaborative practices via these studies.

Comparison of near visual acuity and reading metrics in presbyopia correction

PURPOSE: To provide a consistent standard for the evaluation of different types of presbyopic correction. SETTING: Eye Clinic, School of Life and Health Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, United Kingdom. METHODS: Presbyopic corrections examined were accommodating intraocular lenses (IOLs), simultaneous multifocal and monovision contact lenses, and varifocal spectacles. Binocular near visual acuity measured with different optotypes (uppercase letters, lowercase letters, and words) and reading metrics assessed with the Minnesota Near Reading chart (reading acuity, critical print size [CPS], CPS reading speed) were intercorrelated (Pearson product moment correlations) and assessed for concordance (intraclass correlation coefficients [ICC]) and agreement (Bland-Altman analysis) for indication of clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Nineteen accommodating IOL cases, 40 simultaneous contact lens cases, and 38 varifocal spectacle cases were evaluated. Other than CPS reading speed, all near visual acuity and reading metrics correlated well with each other (r>0.70, P<.001). Near visual acuity measured with uppercase letters was highly concordant (ICC, 0.78) and in close agreement with lowercase letters (+/- 0.17 logMAR). Near word acuity agreed well with reading acuity (+/- 0.16 logMAR), which in turn agreed well with near visual acuity measured with uppercase letters 0.16 logMAR). Concordance (ICC, 0.18 to 0.46) and agreement (+/- 0.24 to 0.30 logMAR) of CPS with the other near metrics was moderate. CONCLUSION: Measurement of near visual ability in presbyopia should be standardized to include assessment of near visual acuity with logMAR uppercase-letter optotypes, smallest logMAR print size that maintains maximum reading speed (CPS), and reading speed. J Cataract Refract Surg 2009; 35:1401-1409 (C) 2009 ASCRS and ESCRS

Organisational learning - a critical systems thinking discipline

Original Paper European Journal of Information Systems (2001) 10, 135–146; doi:10.1057/palgrave.ejis.3000394 Organisational learning—a critical systems thinking discipline P Panagiotidis1,3 and J S Edwards2,4 1Deloitte and Touche, Athens, Greece 2Aston Business School, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK Correspondence: Dr J S Edwards, Aston Business School, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK. E-mail: j.s.edwards@aston.ac.uk 3Petros Panagiotidis is Manager responsible for the Process and Systems Integrity Services of Deloitte and Touche in Athens, Greece. He has a BSc in Business Administration and an MSc in Management Information Systems from Western International University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA; an MSc in Business Systems Analysis and Design from City University, London, UK; and a PhD degree from Aston University, Birmingham, UK. His doctorate was in Business Systems Analysis and Design. His principal interests now are in the ERP/DSS field, where he serves as project leader and project risk managment leader in the implementation of SAP and JD Edwards/Cognos in various major clients in the telecommunications and manufacturing sectors. In addition, he is responsible for the development and application of knowledge management systems and activity-based costing systems. 4John S Edwards is Senior Lecturer in Operational Research and Systems at Aston Business School, Birmingham, UK. He holds MA and PhD degrees (in mathematics and operational research respectively) from Cambridge University. His principal research interests are in knowledge management and decision support, especially methods and processes for system development. He has written more than 30 research papers on these topics, and two books, Building Knowledge-based Systems and Decision Making with Computers, both published by Pitman. Current research work includes the effect of scale of operations on knowledge management, interfacing expert systems with simulation models, process modelling in law and legal services, and a study of the use of artifical intelligence techniques in management accounting. Top of pageAbstract This paper deals with the application of critical systems thinking in the domain of organisational learning and knowledge management. Its viewpoint is that deep organisational learning only takes place when the business systems' stakeholders reflect on their actions and thus inquire about their purpose(s) in relation to the business system and the other stakeholders they perceive to exist. This is done by reflecting both on the sources of motivation and/or deception that are contained in their purpose, and also on the sources of collective motivation and/or deception that are contained in the business system's purpose. The development of an organisational information system that captures, manages and institutionalises meaningful information—a knowledge management system—cannot be separated from organisational learning practices, since it should be the result of these very practices. Although Senge's five disciplines provide a useful starting-point in looking at organisational learning, we argue for a critical systems approach, instead of an uncritical Systems Dynamics one that concentrates only on the organisational learning practices. We proceed to outline a methodology called Business Systems Purpose Analysis (BSPA) that offers a participatory structure for team and organisational learning, upon which the stakeholders can take legitimate action that is based on the force of the better argument. In addition, the organisational learning process in BSPA leads to the development of an intrinsically motivated information organisational system that allows for the institutionalisation of the learning process itself in the form of an organisational knowledge management system. This could be a specific application, or something as wide-ranging as an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) implementation. Examples of the use of BSPA in two ERP implementations are presented.