The design of a real-time nowcasting system for localised weather

National meteorological offices are largely concerned with synoptic-scale forecasting where weather predictions are produced for a whole country for 24 hours ahead. In practice, many local organisations (such as emergency services, construction industries, forestry, farming, and sports) require only local short-term, bespoke, weather predictions and warnings. This thesis shows that the less-demanding requirements do not require exceptional computing power and can be met by a modern, desk-top system which monitors site-specific ground conditions (such as temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, etc) augmented with above ground information from satellite images to produce `nowcasts'. The emphasis in this thesis has been towards the design of such a real-time system for nowcasting. Local site-specific conditions are monitored using a custom-built, stand alone, Motorola 6809 based sub-system. Above ground information is received from the METEOSAT 4 geo-stationary satellite using a sub-system based on a commercially available equipment. The information is ephemeral and must be captured in real-time. The real-time nowcasting system for localised weather handles the data as a transparent task using the limited capabilities of the PC system. Ground data produces a time series of measurements at a specific location which represents the past-to-present atmospheric conditions of the particular site from which much information can be extracted. The novel approach adopted in this thesis is one of constructing stochastic models based on the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The satellite images contain features (such as cloud formations) which evolve dynamically and may be subject to movement, growth, distortion, bifurcation, superposition, or elimination between images. The process of extracting a weather feature, following its motion and predicting its future evolution involves algorithms for normalisation, partitioning, filtering, image enhancement, and correlation of multi-dimensional signals in different domains. To limit the processing requirements, the analysis in this thesis concentrates on an `area of interest'. By this rationale, only a small fraction of the total image needs to be processed, leading to a major saving in time. The thesis also proposes an extention to an existing manual cloud classification technique for its implementation in automatically classifying a cloud feature over the `area of interest' for nowcasting using the multi-dimensional signals.

The pro-reform movement led by Avenir de la Francaise:a point of leverage in the French political process?

The study examines factors influencing language planning decisions in contemporary France. It focuses upon the period 1992-1994, which witnessed the introduction of two major language policy measures, the first an amendment to the French Constitution, in 1992, proclaiming the language of the Republic as French, the second, in 1994, legislation to extend the ambit of the loi Bas-Lauriol, governing the use of the French language in France. The thesis posits a significant role for the pro-reform movement led by the French language association Avenir de la Langue Francaise (ALF) in the introduction and formulation of the policy measures concerned. The movement is depicted as continuing the traditional pattern of intellectual involvement in language planning, whilst also marking the beginning of a highly proactive, and increasingly political approach. Detailed examination of the movement's activities reveals that contextual factors and strategic strength combined to facilitate access to the levers of power, and enabled those involved to exert an impact on policy initiation, formulation, and ultimately implementation. However, ALF's decision to pursue the legislative route led to the expansion of the network of actors involved in language policymaking, and the development of counter-pressure from sectoral groups. It is suggested that this more interventionist approach destabilised the traditionally consensual language policy community, and called into question the quasi-monopoly of the intelligentsia in respect of language policymaking. It raised broader questions relating to freedom of expression and the permissible limits of language regulation in a democracy such as France. It also exposed ongoing ambiguities and inconsistencies in the interpretation of the tenets of language planning.

The feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

We assess the feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants for use in India in various applications including tri-generation, electricity generation and process heat. To cover this breadth of scenarios we analyse, with the help of simulation models, case studies with peak thermal capacities ranging from 2 to 10 MW. Evaluations are made against technical, financial and environmental criteria. Suitable solar multiples, based on the trade-offs among the various criteria, range from 1 to 2.5. Compared to conventional energy sources, levelised energy costs are high - but competitive in comparison to other renewables such as photovoltaic and wind. Long payback periods for hybrid plants mean that they cannot compete directly with biomass-only systems. However, a 1.2-3.2 times increase in feedstock price will result in hybrid systems becoming cost competitive. Furthermore, in comparison to biomass-only, hybrid operation saves up to 29% biomass and land with an 8.3-24.8 $/GJ/a and 1.8-5.2 ¢/kWh increase in cost per exergy loss and levelised energy cost. Hybrid plants will become an increasingly attractive option as the cost of solar thermal falls and feedstock, fossil fuel and land prices continue to rise. In the foreseeable future, solar will continue to rely on subsidies and it is recommended to subsidise preferentially tri-generation plants. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The importance of power dynamics in the development of asynchronous online learning communities

This research explored how a more student-directed learning design can support the creation of togetherness and belonging in a community of distance learners in formal higher education. Postgraduate students in a New Zealand School of Education experienced two different learning tasks as part of their online distance learning studies. The tasks centered around two online asynchronous discussions each for the same period of time and with the same group of students, but following two different learning design principles. All messages were analyzed using a twostep analysis process, content analysis and social network analysis. Although the findings showed a balance of power between the tutor and the students in the first high e-moderated activity, a better pattern of group interaction and community feeling was found in the low e-moderated activity. The paper will discuss the findings in terms of the implications for learning design and the role of the tutor.