63 resultados para uncertainty aversion


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This paper deals with a very important issue in any knowledge engineering discipline: the accurate representation and modelling of real life data and its processing by human experts. The work is applied to the GRiST Mental Health Risk Screening Tool for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems. The complexity of risk data and the wide variations in clinicians' expert opinions make it difficult to elicit representations of uncertainty that are an accurate and meaningful consensus. It requires integrating each expert's estimation of a continuous distribution of uncertainty across a range of values. This paper describes an algorithm that generates a consensual distribution at the same time as measuring the consistency of inputs. Hence it provides a measure of the confidence in the particular data item's risk contribution at the input stage and can help give an indication of the quality of subsequent risk predictions. © 2010 IEEE.

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Laser trackers have been widely used in many industries to meet increasingly high accuracy requirements. In laser tracker measurement, it is complex and difficult to perform an accurate error analysis and uncertainty evaluation. This paper firstly reviews the working principle of single beam laser trackers and state-of- The- Art of key technologies from both industrial and academic efforts, followed by a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty sources. A generic laser tracker modelling method is formulated and the framework of the virtual tracker is proposed. The VLS can be used for measurement planning, measurement accuracy optimization and uncertainty evaluation. The completed virtual laser tracking system should take all the uncertainty sources affecting coordinate measurement into consideration and establish an uncertainty model which will behave in an identical way to the real system. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

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Within corporate contexts, senior leaders must construct credible leadership identities if they are to demonstrate effectiveness in achieving business goals. This is a particular challenge for women, who have struggled historically to gain senior leadership positions. This chapter explores the identity struggles experienced by Karen, a woman Human Resources director within a management meeting as she delivers bad news about ‘company restructuring’ to her colleagues. Using Feminist Poststructuralist Discourse Analysis (FPDA), I show how this leader struggles to maintain a professionally competent identity as she negotiates the bad news. The analysis reveals that despite the demands of her role, Karen demonstrates extraordinary linguistic competence in managing her team within a turbulent business world that continues to remain inhospitable to female leaders.