A semi-oriented radial measure for measuring the efficiency of decision making units with negative data, using DEA

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric method for measuring the efficiency of a set of decision making units such as firms or public sector agencies, first introduced into the operational research and management science literature by Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR) [Charnes, A., Cooper, W.W., Rhodes, E., 1978. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research 2, 429–444]. The original DEA models were applicable only to technologies characterized by positive inputs/outputs. In subsequent literature there have been various approaches to enable DEA to deal with negative data. In this paper, we propose a semi-oriented radial measure, which permits the presence of variables which can take both negative and positive values. The model is applied to data on a notional effluent processing system to compare the results with those yielded by two alternative methods for dealing with negative data in DEA: The modified slacks-based model suggested by Sharp et al. [Sharp, J.A., Liu, W.B., Meng, W., 2006. A modified slacks-based measure model for data envelopment analysis with ‘natural’ negative outputs and inputs. Journal of Operational Research Society 57 (11) 1–6] and the range directional model developed by Portela et al. [Portela, M.C.A.S., Thanassoulis, E., Simpson, G., 2004. A directional distance approach to deal with negative data in DEA: An application to bank branches. Journal of Operational Research Society 55 (10) 1111–1121]. A further example explores the advantages of using the new model.

CORD an object model supporting statistical summary information for management decision making

Information systems have developed to the stage that there is plenty of data available in most organisations but there are still major problems in turning that data into information for management decision making. This thesis argues that the link between decision support information and transaction processing data should be through a common object model which reflects the real world of the organisation and encompasses the artefacts of the information system. The CORD (Collections, Objects, Roles and Domains) model is developed which is richer in appropriate modelling abstractions than current Object Models. A flexible Object Prototyping tool based on a Semantic Data Storage Manager has been developed which enables a variety of models to be stored and experimented with. A statistical summary table model COST (Collections of Objects Statistical Table) has been developed within CORD and is shown to be adequate to meet the modelling needs of Decision Support and Executive Information Systems. The COST model is supported by a statistical table creator and editor COSTed which is also built on top of the Object Prototyper and uses the CORD model to manage its metadata.

A longitudinal study of Chinese managerial behaviour:an inside view of decision-making under the economic reform

This research compared decision making processes in six Chinese state-owned enterprises during the period 1985 to 1988. The research objectives were: a) To examine changes in the managerial behaviour over a period of 1985 to 1988 with a focus on decision-making; b) Through this examination, to throw light on the means by which government policies on economic reform were implemented at the enterprise level; c) To illustrate problems encountered in the decentralization programme which was a major part of China's economic reform. The research was conducted by means of intensive interviews with more than eighty managers and a survey of documents relating to specific decisions. A total of sixty cases of decision-making were selected from five decision topics: purchasing of inputs, pricing of outputs, recruitment of labour, organizational change and innovation, which occurred in 1985 (or before) and in 1988/89. Data from the interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, relations between the enterprise and its higher authority, interactions between management and the party system, the role of information, and effectiveness of regulations and government policies on enterprise management. The analysis of the data indicates that the decision processes in the different enterprises have some similarities in regard to actor involvement, the flow of decision activities, interactions with the authorities, information usage and the effect of regulations. Comparison of the same or similar decision contents over time indicates that the achievement of decentralization varied according to the topic of decision. Managerial authority was delegated to enterprises when the authorities relaxed their control over resource allocation. When acquisition of necessary resources is dependent upon the planning system or the decision matter is sensitive, because it involves change to the institutional framework (e.g. the Party), then a high degree of centralization was retained, resulting in a marginal change in managerial behaviour. The economic reform failed to increase decision efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making. The prevailing institutional frameworks were regarded as negative to the change. The research argues that the decision process is likely to be more contingent on the decision content than the organization. Three types of decision process have been conceptualized, each of them related to a certain type of decision content. This argument gives attention to the perspectives of institution and power in a way which facilitates an elaboration of organizational analysis. The problems encountered in the reform of China's industrial enterprises are identified and discussed. General recommendations for policies of further reform are offered, based on the analysis of decision process and managerial behaviour.

Decision making in nuclear waste management:the use of the synoptic approach

This thesis is concerned with the use of the synoptic approach within decision making concerning nuclear waste management. The synoptic approach to decision making refers to an approach to rational decision making that assumes as an ideal, comprehensiveness of information and analysis. Two case studies are examined in which a high degree of synoptic analysis has been used within the decision making process. The case studies examined are the Windscale Inquiry into the decision to build the THORP reprocessing plant and the Nirex safety assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The case studies are used to test Lindblom's hypothesis that a synoptic approach to decision making is not achievable. In the first case study Lindblom's hypothesis is tested through the evaluation of the decision to build the THORP plant, taken following the Windscale Inquiry. It is concluded that the incongruity of this decision supports Lindblom's hypothesis. However, it has been argued that the Inquiry should be seen as a legitimisation exercise for a decision that was effectively predetermined, rather than a rigorous synoptic analysis. Therefore, the Windscale Inquiry does not provide a robust test of the synoptic method. It was concluded that a methodology was required, that allowed robust conclusions to be drawn, despite the ambiguity of the role of the synoptic method in decision making. Thus, the methodology adopted for the second case study was modified. In this case study the synoptic method was evaluated directly. This was achieved through the analysis of the cogency of the Nirex safety assessment. It was concluded that the failure of Nirex to provide a cogent synoptic analysis supported Lindblom's criticism of the synoptic method. Moreover, it was found that the synoptic method failed in the way that Lindblom predicted that it would.

The use of expert systems for decision making in organizations

The research described in this thesis investigates three issues related to the use of expert systems for decision making in organizations. These are the effectiveness of ESs when used in different roles, to replace a human decision maker or to advise a human decision maker, the users' behaviourand opinions towards using an expertadvisory system and, the possibility of organization-wide deployment of expert systems and the role of an ES in different organizational levels. The research was based on the development of expert systems within a business game environment, a simulation of a manufacturing company. This was chosen to give more control over the `experiments' than would be possible in a real organization. An expert system (EXGAME) was developed based on a structure derived from Anthony's three levels of decision making to manage the simulated company in the business game itself with little user intervention. On the basis of EXGAME, an expert advisory system (ADGAME) was built to help game players to make better decisions in managing the game company. EXGAME and ADGAME are thus two expert systems in the same domain performing different roles; it was found that ADGAME had, in places, to be different from EXGAME, not simply an extension of it. EXGAME was tested several times against human rivals and was evaluated by measuring its performance. ADGAME was also tested by different users and was assessed by measuring the users' performance and analysing their opinions towards it as a helpful decision making aid. The results showed that an expert system was able to replace a human at the operational level, but had difficulty at the strategic level. It also showed the success of the organization-wide deployment of expert systems in this simulated company.

Decision-making algorithms in geometric modelling

Many of the applications of geometric modelling are concerned with the computation of well-defined properties of the model. The applications which have received less attention are those which address questions to which there is no unique answer. This thesis describes such an application: the automatic production of a dimensioned engineering drawing. One distinctive feature of this operation is the requirement for sophisticated decision-making algorithms at each stage in the processing of the geometric model. Hence, the thesis is focussed upon the design, development and implementation of such algorithms. Various techniques for geometric modelling are briefly examined and then details are given of the modelling package that was developed for this project, The principles of orthographic projection and dimensioning are treated and some published work on the theory of dimensioning is examined. A new theoretical approach to dimensioning is presented and discussed. The existing body of knowledge on decision-making is sampled and the author then shows how methods which were originally developed for management decisions may be adapted to serve the purposes of this project. The remainder of the thesis is devoted to reports on the development of decision-making algorithms for orthographic view selection, sectioning and crosshatching, the preparation of orthographic views with essential hidden detail, and two approaches to the actual insertion of dimension lines and text. The thesis concludes that the theories of decision-making can be applied to work of this kind. It may be possible to generate computer solutions that are closer to the optimum than some man-made dimensioning schemes. Further work on important details is required before a commercially acceptable package could be produced.

Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

Ranking efficient decision-making units in data envelopment analysis using fuzzy concept

This paper introduces a new mathematical method for improving the discrimination power of data envelopment analysis and to completely rank the efficient decision-making units (DMUs). Fuzzy concept is utilised. For this purpose, first all DMUs are evaluated with the CCR model. Thereafter, the resulted weights for each output are considered as fuzzy sets and are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The introduced model is a multi-objective linear model, endpoints of which are the highest and lowest of the weighted values. An added advantage of the model is its ability to handle the infeasibility situation sometimes faced by previously introduced models.

Public sector investment appraisal:the place of flexibility in the decision making process

This thesis reviews the main methodological developments in public sector investment appraisal and finds growing evidence that appraisal techniques are not fulfilling their earlier promise. It is suggested that an important reason for this failure lies in the inability of these techniques to handle uncertainty except in a highly circumscribed fashion. It is argued that a more fruitful approach is to strive for flexibility. Investment projects should be formulated with a view to making them responsive to a wide range of possible future events, rather than embodying a solution which is optimal for one configuration of circumstances only. The distinction drawn in economics between the short and the long run is used to examine the nature of flexibility. The concept of long run flexibility is applied to the pre-investment range of choice open to the decisionmaker. It is demonstrated that flexibility is reduced at a very early stage of decisionmaking by the conventional system of appraisal which evaluates only a small number of options. The pre-appraisal filtering process is considered further in relation to decisionmaking models. It is argued that for public sector projects the narrowing down of options is best understood in relation to an amended mixed scanning model which places importance on the process by which the 'national interest ' is determined. Short run flexibility deals with operational characteristics, the degree to which particular projects may respond to changing demands when the basic investment is already in place. The tension between flexibility and cost is noted. A short case study on the choice of electricity generating plant is presented. The thesis concludes with a brief examination of the approaches used by successive British governments to public sector investment, particularly in relation to the nationalised industries

Knowledge engineering for mental-health risk assessment and decision support

Mental-health risk assessment practice in the UK is mainly paper-based, with little standardisation in the tools that are used across the Services. The tools that are available tend to rely on minimal sets of items and unsophisticated scoring methods to identify at-risk individuals. This means the reasoning by which an outcome has been determined remains uncertain. Consequently, there is little provision for: including the patient as an active party in the assessment process, identifying underlying causes of risk, and eecting shared decision-making. This thesis develops a tool-chain for the formulation and deployment of a computerised clinical decision support system for mental-health risk assessment. The resultant tool, GRiST, will be based on consensual domain expert knowledge that will be validated as part of the research, and will incorporate a proven psychological model of classication for risk computation. GRiST will have an ambitious remit of being a platform that can be used over the Internet, by both the clinician and the layperson, in multiple settings, and in the assessment of patients with varying demographics. Flexibility will therefore be a guiding principle in the development of the platform, to the extent that GRiST will present an assessment environment that is tailored to the circumstances in which it nds itself. XML and XSLT will be the key technologies that help deliver this exibility.

Design of a novel solar thermal collector using a multi-criteria decision-making methodology

Three novel solar thermal collector concepts derived from the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) are developed and evaluated through a multi-criteria decision-making methodology, comprising the following techniques: Quality Function Deployment (QFD), the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Pugh selection matrix. Criteria are specified by technical and customer requirements gathered from Gujarat, India. The concepts are compared to a standard LFR for reference, and as a result, a novel 'Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector' (ELFR) concept using elevating mirrors is selected. A detailed version of this concept is proposed and compared against two standard LFR configurations, one using constant and the other using variable horizontal mirror spacing. Annual performance is analysed for a typical meteorological year. Financial assessment is made through the construction of a prototype. The novel LFR has an annual optical efficiency of 49% and increases exergy by 13-23%. Operational hours above a target temperature of 300 C are increased by 9-24%. A 17% reduction in land usage is also achievable. However, the ELFR suffers from additional complexity and a 16-28% increase in capital cost. It is concluded that this novel design is particularly promising for industrial applications and locations with restricted land availability or high land costs. The decision analysis methodology adopted is considered to have a wider potential for applications in the fields of renewable energy and sustainable design. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arms, bending discounting functions:how motor actions affect intertemporal decision-making

We demonstrate that task-irrelevant somatic activity influences intertemporal decision making: Arm movements associated with approach (arm flexion), rather than avoidance (arm extension), instigate present-biased preferences. The effect is moderated by the sensitivity of the general reward system and, owing to learning principles, restricted to arm positions of the dominant hand.

Minimizing nasty surprises with better informed decision-making in self-adaptive systems

Designers of self-adaptive systems often formulate adaptive design decisions, making unrealistic or myopic assumptions about the system's requirements and environment. The decisions taken during this formulation are crucial for satisfying requirements. In environments which are characterized by uncertainty and dynamism, deviation from these assumptions is the norm and may trigger 'surprises'. Our method allows designers to make explicit links between the possible emergence of surprises, risks and design trade-offs. The method can be used to explore the design decisions for self-adaptive systems and choose among decisions that better fulfil (or rather partially fulfil) non-functional requirements and address their trade-offs. The analysis can also provide designers with valuable input for refining the adaptation decisions to balance, for example, resilience (i.e. Satisfiability of non-functional requirements and their trade-offs) and stability (i.e. Minimizing the frequency of adaptation). The objective is to provide designers of self adaptive systems with a basis for multi-dimensional what-if analysis to revise and improve the understanding of the environment and its effect on non-functional requirements and thereafter decision-making. We have applied the method to a wireless sensor network for flood prediction. The application shows that the method gives rise to questions that were not explicitly asked before at design-time and assists designers in the process of risk-aware, what-if and trade-off analysis.

Developing a forest data portal to support multi-scale decision making

Forests play a pivotal role in timber production, maintenance and development of biodiversity and in carbon sequestration and storage in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Policy makers and forest experts therefore require reliable information on forest extent, type and change for management, planning and modeling purposes. It is becoming increasingly clear that such forest information is frequently inconsistent and unharmonised between countries and continents. This research paper presents a forest information portal that has been developed in line with the GEOSS and INSPIRE frameworks. The web portal provides access to forest resources data at a variety of spatial scales, from global through to regional and local, as well as providing analytical capabilities for monitoring and validating forest change. The system also allows for the utilisation of forest data and processing services within other thematic areas. The web portal has been developed using open standards to facilitate accessibility, interoperability and data transfer.