Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

PSD modifications of FHRV due to interpolation and CTG storage rate

Cardiotocographic data provide physicians information about foetal development and permit to assess conditions such as foetal distress. An incorrect evaluation of the foetal status can be of course very dangerous. To improve interpretation of cardiotocographic recordings, great interest has been dedicated to foetal heart rate variability spectral analysis. It is worth reminding, however, that foetal heart rate is intrinsically an uneven series, so in order to produce an evenly sampled series a zero-order, linear or cubic spline interpolation can be employed. This is not suitable for frequency analyses because interpolation introduces alterations in the foetal heart rate power spectrum. In particular, interpolation process can produce alterations of the power spectral density that, for example, affects the estimation of the sympatho-vagal balance (computed as low-frequency/high-frequency ratio), which represents an important clinical parameter. In order to estimate the frequency spectrum alterations of the foetal heart rate variability signal due to interpolation and cardiotocographic storage rates, in this work, we simulated uneven foetal heart rate series with set characteristics, their evenly spaced versions (with different orders of interpolation and storage rates) and computed the sympatho-vagal balance values by power spectral density. For power spectral density estimation, we chose the Lomb method, as suggested by other authors to study the uneven heart rate series in adults. Summarising, the obtained results show that the evaluation of SVB values on the evenly spaced FHR series provides its overestimation due to the interpolation process and to the storage rate. However, cubic spline interpolation produces more robust and accurate results. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PSD modifications of FHRV due to CTG storage rate

Cardiotocographic data provide physicians information about foetal development and, through assessment of specific parameters (like accelerations, uterine contractions, ...), permit to assess conditions such as foetal distress. An incorrect evaluation of foetal status can be of course very dangerous. In the last decades, to improve interpretation of cardiotocographic recordings, great interest has been dedicated to FHRV spectral analysis. It is worth reminding that FHR is intrinsically an uneven series and that to obtain evenly sampled series, many commercial cardiotocographs use a zero-order interpolation (storage rate of CTG data equal to 4 Hz). This is not suitable for frequency analyses because interpolation introduces alterations in the FHR power spectrum. In particular, this interpolation process can produce artifacts and an attenuation of the high-frequency components of the PSD that, for example, affects the estimation of the sympatho-vagal balance (SVB - computed as low-frequency/high-frequency ratio), which represents an important clinical parameter. In order to estimate the frequency spectrum alterations due to zero-order interpolation and other CTG storage rates, in this work, we simulated uneven FHR series with set characteristics, their evenly spaced versions (with different storage rates) and computed SVB values by PSD. For PSD estimation, we chose the Lomb method, as suggested by other authors in application to uneven HR series. ©2009 IEEE.

Optimization and characterization of femtosecond laser inscribed in-fiber microchannels for liquid sensing

In-fiber microchannels were fabricated directly in standard single mode fiber using the femtosecond laser inscribe and etch technique. This method of creating in-fiber microchannels offers great versatility, since it allows complex three-dimensional structures to be inscribed and then preferentially etched with hydrofluoric acid. In addition, inscription does not require a photosensitive fiber; the modification is induced through nonlinear processes triggered by an ultrashort laser pulse. Four in-fiber microchannel designs were experimentally investigated using this technique - microhole, microslot channel along the core, microslot channel perpendicular to the core and helical channel around the core. Each device design was evaluated through monitoring the optical spectral change while inserting a range of index matching oils into each microchannel; an R.I. sensitivity up to 1.55 dB/RIU was achieved in these initial tests. Furthermore, an all femtosecond laser inscribed Fabry-Pérot-based refractometer with an R.I. sensitivity of 2.75 nm/RIU was also demonstrated. The Fabry-Pérot refractometer was formed by positioning a microchannel between two femtosecond laser inscribed point-by-point fiber Bragg gratings.

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Highly sensitive type IA fiber Bragg gratings as sensors in radiation environments

Type IA fiber gratings have unusual physical properties compared with other grating types. We compare with performance characteristics of Type IA and Type I Bragg gratings exposed to the effects of Co60 gamma-irradiation. A Bragg peak shift of 190 pm was observed for Type IA gratings written in Fibercore PS-1250/1500 photosensitive fiber at a radiation dose of 116 kGy. This is the largest wavelength shift recorded to date under radiation exposure. The Type IA and Type I gratings show different kinetics under radiation and during post-radiation annealing; this can be exploited for the design of a grating based dosimetry system. © 2012 SPIE.

Facile synthesis and proposed mechanism of α,ω‐oxetanyl-telechelic poly(3-nitratomethyl-3-methyl oxetane) by an SN2(i) nitrato displacement method in basic media

The synthesis of a novel heterocyclic–telechelic polymer, α,ω-oxetanyl-telechelic poly(3-nitratomethyl-3-methyl oxetane), is described. Infrared spectroscopy (IR), gel permeation chromatography (GPC), and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy have been used to confirm the successful synthesis, demonstrating the presence of the telechelic-oxetanyl moieties. Synthesis of the terminal functionalities has been achieved via displacement of nitrato groups, in a manner similar to that employed with other leaving groups such as azido, bromo, and nitro, initiated by nucleophiles. In the present case, displacement occurs on the ends of a nitrato-functionalized polymer driven by the formation of sodium nitrate, which is supported by the polar aprotic solvent N,N-dimethyl formamide. The formation of an alkoxide at the polymer chain ends is favored and allows internal back-biting to the nearest carbon bearing the nitrato group, intrinsically in an SN2(i) reaction, leading to α,ω-oxetanyl functionalization. The telechelic-oxetanyl moieties have the potential to be cross-linked by chemical (e.g., acidic) or radiative (e.g., ultraviolet) curing methods without the use of high temperatures, usually below 100°C. This type of material was designed for future use as a contraband simulant, whereby it would form the predominant constituent of elastomeric composites comprising rubbery polymer with small quantities of solids, typically crystals of contraband substances, such as explosives or narcotics. This method also provides an alternative approach to ring closure and synthesis of heterocycles.

Characterization of polymer fiber Bragg grating with ultrafast laser micromachining

We report that the main photosensitive mechanism of poly(methyl methacrylate)-based optical fiber Bragg grating (POFBG) under ultraviolet laser micromachining is a complex process of both photodegradation and negative thermo-optic effect. We found experimentally the unique characteristics of Bragg resonance splitting and reunion during the laser micromachining process providing the evidence of photodegradation, while the mean refractive index change of POFBG was measured to be negative confirming further photodegradation of polymer fiber. The thermal-induced refractive index change of POFBG was also observed by recording the Bragg wavelength shift. Furthermore, the dynamic thermal response of the micromachined-POFBG was demonstrated under constant humidity, showing a linear and negative response of around -47.1 pm/°C.

Identification of the degradation mechanisms of organic solar cells:active layer and interfacial layers

Organic Solar Cells (OSCs) represent a photovoltaic technology with multiple interesting application properties. However, the establishment of this technology into the market is subject to the achievement of operational lifetimes appropriate to their application purposes. Thus, comprehensive understanding of the degradation mechanisms occurring in OSCs is mandatory in both selecting more intrinsically stable components and/or device architectures and implementing strategies that mitigate the encountered stability issues. Inverted devices can suffer from mechanical stress and delamination at the interface between the active layer, e.g. poly(3-hexylthiophene):[6,6]-phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (P3HT:PCBM), and the hole transport layer, e.g. poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):poly(p-styrene sulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS). This work proposes the incorporation of a thin adhesive interlayer, consisting of a diblock copolymer composed of a P3HT block and a thermally-triggerable, alkyl-protected PSS block. In this context, the synthesis of poly(neopentyl p-styrene sulfonate) (PNSS) with controlled molar mass and low dispersity (Ð ≤ 1.50) via Reversible Addition-Fragmentation chain Transfer (RAFT) polymerisation has been extensively studied. Subsequently, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was explored to characterise the thermal deprotection of P3HT-b-PNSS thin layers to yield amphiphilic P3HT-b-PSS, indicating that surface deprotection prior to thermal treatment could occur. Finally, structural variation of the alkyl protecting group in PSS allowed reducing the thermal treatment duration from 3 hours (P3HT-b-PNSS) to 45 minutes for the poly(isobutyl p-styrene sulfonate) (PiBSS) analogous copolymer. Another critical issue regarding the stability of OSCs is the sunlight-driven chemical degradation of the active layer. In the study herein, the combination of experimental techniques and theoretical calculations has allowed identification of the structural weaknesses of poly[(4,4’- bis(2-ethylhexyl) dithieno [3,2-b:2’,3’-d]silole)-2,6-diyl-alt-(4,7-bis(2-thienyl)-2,1,3-benzothiadiazole)-5,5’-diyl], Si-PCPDTBT, upon photochemical treatment in air. Additionally, the study of the relative photodegradation rates in air of a series of polymers with systematically modified backbones and/or alkyl side chains has shown no direct correlation between chemical structure and stability. It is proposed instead that photostability is highly dependent on the crystalline character of the deposited films. Furthermore, it was verified that photostability of blends based on these polymers is dictated by the (de)stabilising effect that [6,6]-phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) has over each polymer. Finally, a multiscale analysis on the degradation of solar cells based on poly[4,4' bis(2- ethylhexyl) dithieno[3,2-b:2',3'-d]silole)-2,6-diyl-alt-[2,5 bis(3 tetradecylthiophen 2-yl)thiazole[5,4-d]thiazole)-1,8-diyl] and PCBM, indicated that by judicious selection of device layers, architectures, and encapsulation materials, operational lifetimes up to 3.3 years with no efficiency losses can be successfully achieved.