Stability of multi-agent systems

This work attempts to shed light to the fundamental concepts behind the stability of Multi-Agent Systems. We view the system as a discrete time Markov chain with a potentially unknown transitional probability distribution. The system will be considered to be stable when its state has converged to an equilibrium distribution. Faced with the non-trivial task of establishing the convergence to such a distribution, we propose a hypothesis testing approach according to which we test whether the convergence of a particular system metric has occurred. We describe some artificial multi-agent ecosystems that were developed and we present results based on these systems which confirm that this approach qualitatively agrees with our intuition.

Photo-sketch synthesis and recognition based on subspace learning

This paper aims to reducing difference between sketches and photos by synthesizing sketches from photos, and vice versa, and then performing sketch-sketch/photo-photo recognition with subspace learning based methods. Pseudo-sketch/pseudo-photo patches are synthesized with embedded hidden Markov model. Because these patches are assembled by averaging their overlapping area in most of the local strategy based methods, which leads to blurring effect to the resulted pseudo-sketch/pseudo-photo, we integrate the patches with image quilting. Experiments are carried out to demonstrate that the proposed method is effective to produce pseudo-sketch/pseudo-photo with high quality and achieve promising recognition results. © 2009.

Variational mean-field algorithm for efficient inference in large systems of stochastic differential equations

This work introduces a Gaussian variational mean-field approximation for inference in dynamical systems which can be modeled by ordinary stochastic differential equations. This new approach allows one to express the variational free energy as a functional of the marginal moments of the approximating Gaussian process. A restriction of the moment equations to piecewise polynomial functions, over time, dramatically reduces the complexity of approximate inference for stochastic differential equation models and makes it comparable to that of discrete time hidden Markov models. The algorithm is demonstrated on state and parameter estimation for nonlinear problems with up to 1000 dimensional state vectors and compares the results empirically with various well-known inference methodologies.

An intelligent broker agent for energy trading:an MDP approach

This paper details the development and evaluation of AstonTAC, an energy broker that successfully participated in the 2012 Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). AstonTAC buys electrical energy from the wholesale market and sells it in the retail market. The main focus of the paper is on the broker’s bidding strategy in the wholesale market. In particular, it employs Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to purchase energy at low prices in a day-ahead power wholesale market, and keeps energy supply and demand balanced. Moreover, we explain how the agent uses Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHHMM) to forecast energy demand and price. An evaluation and analysis of the 2012 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC is the only agent that can buy energy at low price in the wholesale market and keep energy imbalance low.

Directional mobility of debt ratings

In this paper we describe a method to decompose a well-known measure of debt ratings mobility into it's directional components. We show, using sovereign debt ratings as an example, that this directional decomposition allows us to better understand the underlying characteristics of debt ratings migration and, for the case of the data set used, that the standard Markov chain model is not homogeneous in either the time or cross-sectional dimensions. We find that the directional decomposition also allows us to sign the change in quality of debt over time and across sub-groups of the population.

Performance analysis of IEEE 802.11 cognitive radio ad hoc networks

IEEE 802.11 standard is the dominant technology for wireless local area networks (WLANs). In the last two decades, the Distributed coordination function (DCF) of IEEE 802.11 standard has become the one of the most important media access control (MAC) protocols for mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). The DCF protocol can also be combined with cognitive radio, thus the IEEE 802.11 cognitive radio ad hoc networks (CRAHNs) come into being. There were several literatures which focus on the modeling of IEEE 802.11 CRAHNs, however, there is still no thorough and scalable analytical models for IEEE 802.11 CRAHNs whose cognitive node (i.e., secondary user, SU) has spectrum sensing and possible channel silence process before the MAC contention process. This paper develops a unified analytical model for IEEE 802.11 CRAHNs for comprehensive MAC layer queuing analysis. In the proposed model, the SUs are modeled by a hyper generalized 2D Markov chain model with an M/G/1/K model while the primary users (PUs) are modeled by a generalized 2D Markov chain and an M/G/1/K model. The performance evaluation results show that the quality-of-service (QoS) of both the PUs and SUs can be statistically guaranteed with the suitable settings of duration of channel sensing and silence phase in the case of under loading.

Simple approximate MAP inference for Dirichlet processes mixtures

The Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) is a ubiquitous, flexible Bayesian nonparametric statistical model. However, full probabilistic inference in this model is analytically intractable, so that computationally intensive techniques such as Gibbs sampling are required. As a result, DPMM-based methods, which have considerable potential, are restricted to applications in which computational resources and time for inference is plentiful. For example, they would not be practical for digital signal processing on embedded hardware, where computational resources are at a serious premium. Here, we develop a simplified yet statistically rigorous approximate maximum a-posteriori (MAP) inference algorithm for DPMMs. This algorithm is as simple as DP-means clustering, solves the MAP problem as well as Gibbs sampling, while requiring only a fraction of the computational effort. (For freely available code that implements the MAP-DP algorithm for Gaussian mixtures see http://www.maxlittle.net/.) Unlike related small variance asymptotics (SVA), our method is non-degenerate and so inherits the “rich get richer” property of the Dirichlet process. It also retains a non-degenerate closed-form likelihood which enables out-of-sample calculations and the use of standard tools such as cross-validation. We illustrate the benefits of our algorithm on a range of examples and contrast it to variational, SVA and sampling approaches from both a computational complexity perspective as well as in terms of clustering performance. We demonstrate the wide applicabiity of our approach by presenting an approximate MAP inference method for the infinite hidden Markov model whose performance contrasts favorably with a recently proposed hybrid SVA approach. Similarly, we show how our algorithm can applied to a semiparametric mixed-effects regression model where the random effects distribution is modelled using an infinite mixture model, as used in longitudinal progression modelling in population health science. Finally, we propose directions for future research on approximate MAP inference in Bayesian nonparametrics.