74 resultados para dynamic Bayesian networks


Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The use of digital communication systems is increasing very rapidly. This is due to lower system implementation cost compared to analogue transmission and at the same time, the ease with which several types of data sources (data, digitised speech and video, etc.) can be mixed. The emergence of packet broadcast techniques as an efficient type of multiplexing, especially with the use of contention random multiple access protocols, has led to a wide-spread application of these distributed access protocols in local area networks (LANs) and a further extension of them to radio and mobile radio communication applications. In this research, a proposal for a modified version of the distributed access contention protocol which uses the packet broadcast switching technique has been achieved. The carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) is found to be the most appropriate protocol which has the ability to satisfy equally the operational requirements for local area networks as well as for radio and mobile radio applications. The suggested version of the protocol is designed in a way in which all desirable features of its precedents is maintained. However, all the shortcomings are eliminated and additional features have been added to strengthen its ability to work with radio and mobile radio channels. Operational performance evaluation of the protocol has been carried out for the two types of non-persistent and slotted non-persistent, through mathematical and simulation modelling of the protocol. The results obtained from the two modelling procedures validate the accuracy of both methods, which compares favourably with its precedent protocol CSMA/CD (with collision detection). A further extension of the protocol operation has been suggested to operate with multichannel systems. Two multichannel systems based on the CSMA/CA protocol for medium access are therefore proposed. These are; the dynamic multichannel system, which is based on two types of channel selection, the random choice (RC) and the idle choice (IC), and the sequential multichannel system. The latter has been proposed in order to supress the effect of the hidden terminal, which always represents a major problem with the usage of the contention random multiple access protocols with radio and mobile radio channels. Verification of their operation performance evaluation has been carried out using mathematical modelling for the dynamic system. However, simulation modelling has been chosen for the sequential system. Both systems are found to improve system operation and fault tolerance when compared to single channel operation.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Large monitoring networks are becoming increasingly common and can generate large datasets from thousands to millions of observations in size, often with high temporal resolution. Processing large datasets using traditional geostatistical methods is prohibitively slow and in real world applications different types of sensor can be found across a monitoring network. Heterogeneities in the error characteristics of different sensors, both in terms of distribution and magnitude, presents problems for generating coherent maps. An assumption in traditional geostatistics is that observations are made directly of the underlying process being studied and that the observations are contaminated with Gaussian errors. Under this assumption, sub–optimal predictions will be obtained if the error characteristics of the sensor are effectively non–Gaussian. One method, model based geostatistics, assumes that a Gaussian process prior is imposed over the (latent) process being studied and that the sensor model forms part of the likelihood term. One problem with this type of approach is that the corresponding posterior distribution will be non–Gaussian and computationally demanding as Monte Carlo methods have to be used. An extension of a sequential, approximate Bayesian inference method enables observations with arbitrary likelihoods to be treated, in a projected process kriging framework which is less computationally intensive. The approach is illustrated using a simulated dataset with a range of sensor models and error characteristics.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about 800 km, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of backscatter microwave radiation reflected by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by sea-surface winds, and so provides instantaneous snap-shots of wind flow over large areas of the ocean surface, known as wind fields. Inherent in the physics of the observation process is an ambiguity in wind direction; the scatterometer cannot distinguish if the wind is blowing toward or away from the sensor device. This ambiguity implies that there is a one-to-many mapping between scatterometer data and wind direction. Current operational methods for wind field retrieval are based on the retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data, followed by a disambiguation and filtering process that is reliant on numerical weather prediction models. The wind vectors are retrieved by the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, and minimising a cost function in scatterometer measurement space. This thesis applies a pragmatic Bayesian solution to the problem. The likelihood is a combination of conditional probability distributions for the local wind vectors given the scatterometer data. The prior distribution is a vector Gaussian process that provides the geophysical consistency for the wind field. The wind vectors are retrieved directly from the scatterometer data by using mixture density networks, a principled method to model multi-modal conditional probability density functions. The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated. A hybrid mixture density network, that incorporates the knowledge that the conditional probability distribution of the observation process is predominantly bi-modal, is developed. The optimal model, which generalises across a swathe of scatterometer readings, is better on key performance measures than the current operational model. Wind field retrieval is approached from three perspectives. The first is a non-autonomous method that confirms the validity of the model by retrieving the correct wind field 99% of the time from a test set of 575 wind fields. The second technique takes the maximum a posteriori probability wind field retrieved from the posterior distribution as the prediction. For the third technique, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were employed to estimate the mass associated with significant modes of the posterior distribution, and make predictions based on the mode with the greatest mass associated with it. General methods for sampling from multi-modal distributions were benchmarked against a specific MCMC transition kernel designed for this problem. It was shown that the general methods were unsuitable for this application due to computational expense. On a test set of 100 wind fields the MAP estimate correctly retrieved 72 wind fields, whilst the sampling method correctly retrieved 73 wind fields.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This thesis draws on two key areas of the innovation literature, the strategic management of technology (SMOT) and innovation networks. The aim is to integrate these two areas of the management of innovation literature to develop a framework which I describe as the Strategic Innovation Network (SIN). The key proposition that the revised framework (SIN) aims to address is based on the work of Chandler (1962). Chandler's (1962) conclusion that 'structure follows strategy' is examined in relation to the interaction between corporate/technology strategy and network structure. The SIN is intended to address weaknesses in both the SMOT and network literature. The research data is based on five detailed longitudinal case studies. The organisations are defined as mid-corporate firms operating in traditional manufacturing sectors. Each organisation was chosen on the basis that it was aiming to develop its innovative capacity through product or process innovation projects. The research was carried out over an 18 month period with interviews being held regularly to develop the longitudinal aspect of the study analysis. The data for each individual case study is examined using the SIN framework. The longitudinal approach addresses the objective to provide a dynamic model of the innovation processes by mapping the changes in network structure during the course of individual projects. The network structural changes are examined in relation to each organisation's strategy and five key dynamic network stages are identified in relation to the innovation process. These network stages show the influence strategy has on the structures adopted by the five case studies.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The main theme of research of this project concerns the study of neutral networks to control uncertain and non-linear control systems. This involves the control of continuous time, discrete time, hybrid and stochastic systems with input, state or output constraints by ensuring good performances. A great part of this project is devoted to the opening of frontiers between several mathematical and engineering approaches in order to tackle complex but very common non-linear control problems. The objectives are: 1. Design and develop procedures for neutral network enhanced self-tuning adaptive non-linear control systems; 2. To design, as a general procedure, neural network generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for non-linear dynamic plants (Integration of neural network mapping with generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller strategies); 3. To develop a software package to evaluate control system performances using Matlab, Simulink and Neural Network toolbox. An adaptive control algorithm utilising a recurrent network as a model of a partial unknown non-linear plant with unmeasurable state is proposed. Appropriately, it appears that structured recurrent neural networks can provide conveniently parameterised dynamic models for many non-linear systems for use in adaptive control. Properties of static neural networks, which enabled successful design of stable adaptive control in the state feedback case, are also identified. A survey of the existing results is presented which puts them in a systematic framework showing their relation to classical self-tuning adaptive control application of neural control to a SISO/MIMO control. Simulation results demonstrate that the self-tuning design methods may be practically applicable to a reasonably large class of unknown linear and non-linear dynamic control systems.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Control design for stochastic uncertain nonlinear systems is traditionally based on minimizing the expected value of a suitably chosen loss function. Moreover, most control methods usually assume the certainty equivalence principle to simplify the problem and make it computationally tractable. We offer an improved probabilistic framework which is not constrained by these previous assumptions, and provides a more natural framework for incorporating and dealing with uncertainty. The focus of this paper is on developing this framework to obtain an optimal control law strategy using a fully probabilistic approach for information extraction from process data, which does not require detailed knowledge of system dynamics. Moreover, the proposed control method framework allows handling the problem of input-dependent noise. A basic paradigm is proposed and the resulting algorithm is discussed. The proposed probabilistic control method is for the general nonlinear class of discrete-time systems. It is demonstrated theoretically on the affine class. A nonlinear simulation example is also provided to validate theoretical development.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Dedicated short range communications (DSRC) was proposed for collaborative safety applications (CSA) in vehicle communications. In this article we propose two adaptive congestion control schemes for DSRC-based CSA. A cross-layer design approach is used with congestion detection at the MAC layer and traffic rate control at the application layer. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed rate control scheme for adapting to dynamic traffic loads.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) is a promising technique for vehicle ad-hoc network (VANET) and collaborative road safety applications. As road safety applications require strict quality of services (QoS) from the VANET, it is crucial for DSRC to provide timely and reliable communications to make safety applications successful. In this paper we propose two adaptive message rate control algorithms for low priority safety messages, in order to provide highly available channel for high priority emergency messages while improve channel utilization. In the algorithms each vehicle monitors channel loads and independently controls message rate by a modified additive increase and multiplicative decrease (AIMD) method. Simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed rate control algorithms in adapting to dynamic traffic load.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Link adaptation is a critical component of IEEE 802.11 systems, which adapts transmission rates to dynamic wireless channel conditions. In this paper we investigate a general cross-layer link adaptation algorithm which jointly considers the physical layer link quality and random channel access at the MAC layer. An analytic model is proposed for the link adaptation algorithm. The underlying wireless channel is modeled with a multiple state discrete time Markov chain. Compared with the pure link quality based link adaptation algorithm, the proposed cross-layer algorithm can achieve considerable performance gains of up to 20%.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Wireless Mesh Networks (WMNs) have emerged as a key technology for the next generation of wireless networking. Instead of being another type of ad-hoc networking, WMNs diversify the capabilities of ad-hoc networks. Several protocols that work over WMNs include IEEE 802.11a/b/g, 802.15, 802.16 and LTE-Advanced. To bring about a high throughput under varying conditions, these protocols have to adapt their transmission rate. In this paper, we have proposed a scheme to improve channel conditions by performing rate adaptation along with multiple packet transmission using packet loss and physical layer condition. Dynamic monitoring, multiple packet transmission and adaptation to changes in channel quality by adjusting the packet transmission rates according to certain optimization criteria provided greater throughput. The key feature of the proposed method is the combination of the following two factors: 1) detection of intrinsic channel conditions by measuring the fluctuation of noise to signal ratio via the standard deviation, and 2) the detection of packet loss induced through congestion. We have shown that the use of such techniques in a WMN can significantly improve performance in terms of the packet sending rate. The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated in a simulated wireless network testbed via packet-level simulation.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Erbium-doped fibre amplifiers (EDFA’s) are a key technology for the design of all optical communication systems and networks. The superiority of EDFAs lies in their negligible intermodulation distortion across high speed multichannel signals, low intrinsic losses, slow gain dynamics, and gain in a wide range of optical wavelengths. Due to long lifetime in excited states, EDFAs do not oppose the effect of cross-gain saturation. The time characteristics of the gain saturation and recovery effects are between a few hundred microseconds and 10 milliseconds. However, in wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks with EDFAs, the number of channels traversing an EDFA can change due to the faulty link of the network or the system reconfiguration. It has been found that, due to the variation in channel number in the EDFAs chain, the output system powers of surviving channels can change in a very short time. Thus, the power transient is one of the problems deteriorating system performance. In this thesis, the transient phenomenon in wavelength routed WDM optical networks with EDFA chains was investigated. The task was performed using different input signal powers for circuit switched networks. A simulator for the EDFA gain dynamicmodel was developed to compute the magnitude and speed of the power transients in the non-self-saturated EDFA both single and chained. The dynamic model of the self-saturated EDFAs chain and its simulator were also developed to compute the magnitude and speed of the power transients and the Optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR). We found that the OSNR transient magnitude and speed are a function of both the output power transient and the number of EDFAs in the chain. The OSNR value predicts the level of the quality of service in the related network. It was found that the power transients for both self-saturated and non-self-saturated EDFAs are close in magnitude in the case of gain saturated EDFAs networks. Moreover, the cross-gain saturation also degrades the performance of the packet switching networks due to varying traffic characteristics. The magnitude and the speed of output power transients increase along the EDFAs chain. An investigation was done on the asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) or the WDM Internet protocol (WDM-IP) traffic networks using different traffic patterns based on the Pareto and Poisson distribution. The simulator is used to examine the amount and speed of the power transients in Pareto and Poisson distributed traffic at different bit rates, with specific focus on 2.5 Gb/s. It was found from numerical and statistical analysis that the power swing increases if the time interval of theburst-ON/burst-OFF is long in the packet bursts. This is because the gain dynamics is fast during strong signal pulse or with long duration pulses, which is due to the stimulatedemission avalanche depletion of the excited ions. Thus, an increase in output power levelcould lead to error burst which affects the system performance.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper builds on Granovetter's distinction between strong and weak ties [Granovetter, M. S. 1973. The strength of weak ties. Amer. J. Sociol. 78(6) 1360–1380] in order to respond to recent calls for a more dynamic and processual understanding of networks. The concepts of potential and latent tie are deductively identified, and their implications for understanding how and why networks emerge, evolve, and change are explored. A longitudinal empirical study conducted with companies operating in the European motorsport industry reveals that firms take strategic actions to search for potential ties and reactivate latent ties in order to solve problems of network redundancy and overload. Examples are given, and their characteristics are examined to provide theoretical elaboration of the relationship between the types of tie and network evolution. These conceptual and empirical insights move understanding of the managerial challenge of building effective networks beyond static structural contingency models of optimal network forms to highlight the processes and capabilities of dynamic relationship building and network development. In so doing, this paper highlights the interrelationship between search and redundancy and the scope for strategic action alongside path dependence and structural influences on network processes.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The motorsport industry is a high value-added and highly innovative business sector. The UK’s leading racing car manufacturers are world class centres of research, development and engineering. However, individual firms in the sector do not have the range and depth of capabilities to compete independently in motorsport’s dynamic and competitive environment. Industry attention has therefore progressively focused on how networks of collaborating firms can work together to develop new products, improve business processes and reduce costs. This report presents findings from a three year Cardiff Business School study which examined the ways in which firms collaborate as part of wider networks. The research involved gathering data from over 120 firms in the UK and Italian motorsport sectors.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Fibre overlay is a cost-effective technique to alleviate wavelength blocking in some links of a wavelength-routed optical network by increasing the number of wavelengths in those links. In this letter, we investigate the effects of overlaying fibre in an all-optical network (AON) based on GÉANT2 topology. The constraint-based routing and wavelength assignment (CB-RWA) algorithm locates where cost-efficient upgrades should be implemented. Through numerical examples, we demonstrate that the network capacity improves by 25 per cent by overlaying fibre on 10 per cent of the links, and by 12 per cent by providing hop reduction links comprising 2 per cent of the links. For the upgraded network, we also show the impact of dynamic traffic allocation on the blocking probability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.