The measurement and decomposition of economy-wide productivity growth:Assessing the accuracy and selecting between different approaches

Productivity at the macro level is a complex concept but also arguably the most appropriate measure of economic welfare. Currently, there is limited research available on the various approaches that can be used to measure it and especially on the relative accuracy of said approaches. This thesis has two main objectives: firstly, to detail some of the most common productivity measurement approaches and assess their accuracy under a number of conditions and secondly, to present an up-to-date application of productivity measurement and provide some guidance on selecting between sometimes conflicting productivity estimates. With regards to the first objective, the thesis provides a discussion on the issues specific to macro-level productivity measurement and on the strengths and weaknesses of the three main types of approaches available, namely index-number approaches (represented by Growth Accounting), non-parametric distance functions (DEA-based Malmquist indices) and parametric production functions (COLS- and SFA-based Malmquist indices). The accuracy of these approaches is assessed through simulation analysis, which provided some interesting findings. Probably the most important were that deterministic approaches are quite accurate even when the data is moderately noisy, that no approaches were accurate when noise was more extensive, that functional form misspecification has a severe negative effect in the accuracy of the parametric approaches and finally that increased volatility in inputs and prices from one period to the next adversely affects all approaches examined. The application was based on the EU KLEMS (2008) dataset and revealed that the different approaches do in fact result in different productivity change estimates, at least for some of the countries assessed. To assist researchers in selecting between conflicting estimates, a new, three step selection framework is proposed, based on findings of simulation analyses and established diagnostics/indicators. An application of this framework is also provided, based on the EU KLEMS dataset.

The accuracy of parameter estimation from noisy data, with application to resonance peak estimation in distributed Brillouin sensing

Distributed Brillouin sensing of strain and temperature works by making spatially resolved measurements of the position of the measurand-dependent extremum of the resonance curve associated with the scattering process in the weakly nonlinear regime. Typically, measurements of backscattered Stokes intensity (the dependent variable) are made at a number of predetermined fixed frequencies covering the design measurand range of the apparatus and combined to yield an estimate of the position of the extremum. The measurand can then be found because its relationship to the position of the extremum is assumed known. We present analytical expressions relating the relative error in the extremum position to experimental errors in the dependent variable. This is done for two cases: (i) a simple non-parametric estimate of the mean based on moments and (ii) the case in which a least squares technique is used to fit a Lorentzian to the data. The question of statistical bias in the estimates is discussed and in the second case we go further and present for the first time a general method by which the probability density function (PDF) of errors in the fitted parameters can be obtained in closed form in terms of the PDFs of the errors in the noisy data.

Breaks in the UK household sector money demand function

We use non-parametric procedures to identify breaks in the underlying series of UK household sector money demand functions. Money demand functions are estimated using cointegration techniques and by employing both the Simple Sum and Divisia measures of money. P-star models are also estimated for out-of-sample inflation forecasting. Our findings suggest that the presence of breaks affects both the estimation of cointegrated money demand functions and the inflation forecasts. P-star forecast models based on Divisia measures appear more accurate at longer horizons and the majority of models with fundamentals perform better than a random walk model.

StatNote 38 : The sign test

The sign test is a simple non-parametric test which can be used on paired data, i.e., two related samples, matched samples, or repeated measurements on the same sample. It was developed by Wilcoxon before the more powerful and familiar ‘Wilcoxon signed-rank test’ described in a previous statnote . This statnote describes the use of the sign test with reference to two scenarios: (1) to compare the cleanliness of two hospital wards as assessed by a sample of observers and (2) to compare bacterial contamination on cloths and sponges from a domestic kitchen.

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Network effects, network structure and consumer interaction in mobile telecommunications in Europe and Asia

This paper estimates the importance of (tariff-mediated) network effects and the impact of a consumer's social network on her choice of mobile phone provider. The study uses network data obtained from surveys of students in several European and Asian countries. We use the Quadratic Assignment Procedure, a non-parametric permutation test, to adjust for the particular error structure of network data. We find that respondents strongly coordinate their choice of mobile phone providers, but only if their provider induces network effects. This suggests that this coordination depends on network effects rather than on information contagion or pressure to conform to the social environment.

Statnote 40: Cochran's Q test

Cochran's Q-test is a non-parametric analysis which can be applied to a two-way design in which the data are binomial and can take only two possible outcomes, e.g., 0 or 1, alive or dead, present or absent, clean or dirty, infected or non-infected, and is an extension to the binomial tests introduced in Statnote 39 . This statnote describes the application of this test in the analysis of the changes which occur in the fungal flora of forestry nursery beds after two different sterilization procedures .

Social and financial efficiency of Islamic microfinance institutions:a Data Envelopment Analysis application

Microfinance has been developed as alternative solution for global poverty alleviation effort in the last 30 years. Microfinance institution (MFI) has unique characteristic wherein they face double bottom line objectives of outreach to the poor and financial sustainability. This study proposes a two-stage analysis to measure Islamic Microfinance institutions (IMFIs) performance by comparing them to conventional MFIs. First, we develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework to measure MFIs' efficiency in its double bottom line objectives, i.e. in terms of social and financial efficiency. In the second stage non-parametric tests are used to compare the performance and identify factors that contribute to the efficiency of IMFIs and MFIs.

Applications of data envelopment analysis in education

Non-parametric methods for efficiency evaluation were designed to analyse industries comprising multi-input multi-output producers and lacking data on market prices. Education is a typical example. In this chapter, we review applications of DEA in secondary and tertiary education, focusing on the opportunities that this offers for benchmarking at institutional level. At secondary level, we investigate also the disaggregation of efficiency measures into pupil-level and school-level effects. For higher education, while many analyses concern overall institutional efficiency, we examine also studies that take a more disaggregated approach, centred either around the performance of specific functional areas or that of individual employees.

An allocation Malmquist index with an application in the China securities industry

This paper proposes an allocation Malmquist index which is inspired by the work on the non-parametric cost Malmquist index. We first show that how to decompose the cost Malmquist index into the input-oriented Malmquist index and the allocation Malmquist index. An application in corporate management of the China securities industry with the panel data set of 40 securities companies during the period 2005–2011 shows the practicality of the propose model.

An Exploration of parametric software cost estimating models for Jackson Systems Development

Most parametric software cost estimation models used today evolved in the late 70's and early 80's. At that time, the dominant software development techniques being used were the early 'structured methods'. Since then, several new systems development paradigms and methods have emerged, one being Jackson Systems Development (JSD). As current cost estimating methods do not take account of these developments, their non-universality means they cannot provide adequate estimates of effort and hence cost. In order to address these shortcomings two new estimation methods have been developed for JSD projects. One of these methods JSD-FPA, is a top-down estimating method, based on the existing MKII function point method. The other method, JSD-COCOMO, is a sizing technique which sizes a project, in terms of lines of code, from the process structure diagrams and thus provides an input to the traditional COCOMO method.The JSD-FPA method allows JSD projects in both the real-time and scientific application areas to be costed, as well as the commercial information systems applications to which FPA is usually applied. The method is based upon a three-dimensional view of a system specification as opposed to the largely data-oriented view traditionally used by FPA. The method uses counts of various attributes of a JSD specification to develop a metric which provides an indication of the size of the system to be developed. This size metric is then transformed into an estimate of effort by calculating past project productivity and utilising this figure to predict the effort and hence cost of a future project. The effort estimates produced were validated by comparing them against the effort figures for six actual projects.The JSD-COCOMO method uses counts of the levels in a process structure chart as the input to an empirically derived model which transforms them into an estimate of delivered source code instructions.

Multispectral retinal image analysis:a novel non-invasive tool for retinal imaging

Purpose-To develop a non-invasive method for quantification of blood and pigment distributions across the posterior pole of the fundus from multispectral images using a computer-generated reflectance model of the fundus. Methods - A computer model was developed to simulate light interaction with the fundus at different wavelengths. The distribution of macular pigment (MP) and retinal haemoglobins in the fundus was obtained by comparing the model predictions with multispectral image data at each pixel. Fundus images were acquired from 16 healthy subjects from various ethnic backgrounds and parametric maps showing the distribution of MP and of retinal haemoglobins throughout the posterior pole were computed. Results - The relative distributions of MP and retinal haemoglobins in the subjects were successfully derived from multispectral images acquired at wavelengths 507, 525, 552, 585, 596, and 611?nm, providing certain conditions were met and eye movement between exposures was minimal. Recovery of other fundus pigments was not feasible and further development of the imaging technique and refinement of the software are necessary to understand the full potential of multispectral retinal image analysis. Conclusion - The distributions of MP and retinal haemoglobins obtained in this preliminary investigation are in good agreement with published data on normal subjects. The ongoing development of the imaging system should allow for absolute parameter values to be computed. A further study will investigate subjects with known pathologies to determine the effectiveness of the method as a screening and diagnostic tool.

The spatial distribution of self-employment in India:evidence from semi-parametric geoadditive models

The spatial distribution of self-employment in India: evidence from semiparametric geoadditive models, Regional Studies. The entrepreneurship literature has rarely considered spatial location as a micro-determinant of occupational choice. It has also ignored self-employment in developing countries. Using Bayesian semiparametric geoadditive techniques, this paper models spatial location as a micro-determinant of self-employment choice in India. The empirical results suggest the presence of spatial occupational neighbourhoods and a clear north–south divide in self-employment when the entire sample is considered; however, spatial variation in the non-agriculture sector disappears to a large extent when individual factors that influence self-employment choice are explicitly controlled. The results further suggest non-linear effects of age, education and wealth on self-employment.

The role of pinning and instability in a class of non-equilibrium growth models

We study the dynamics of a growing crystalline facet where the growth mechanism is controlled by the geometry of the local curvature. A continuum model, in (2+1) dimensions, is developed in analogy with the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) model is considered for the purpose. Following standard coarse graining procedures, it is shown that in the large time, long distance limit, the continuum model predicts a curvature independent KPZ phase, thereby suppressing all explicit effects of curvature and local pinning in the system, in the "perturbative" limit. A direct numerical integration of this growth equation, in 1+1 dimensions, supports this observation below a critical parametric range, above which generic instabilities, in the form of isolated pillared structures lead to deviations from standard scaling behaviour. Possibilities of controlling this instability by introducing statistically "irrelevant" (in the sense of renormalisation groups) higher ordered nonlinearities have also been discussed.