Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis

We report an empirical analysis of long-range dependence in the returns of eight stock market indices, using the Rescaled Range Analysis (RRA) to estimate the Hurst exponent. Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations are used to construct critical values for the null hypothesis of no long-range dependence. The issue of disentangling short-range and long-range dependence is examined. Pre-filtering by fitting a (short-range) autoregressive model eliminates part of the long-range dependence when the latter is present, while failure to pre-filter leaves open the possibility of conflating short-range and long-range dependence. There is a strong evidence of long-range dependence for the small central European Czech stock market index PX-glob, and a weaker evidence for two smaller western European stock market indices, MSE (Spain) and SWX (Switzerland). There is little or no evidence of long-range dependence for the other five indices, including those with the largest capitalizations among those considered, DJIA (US) and FTSE350 (UK). These results are generally consistent with prior expectations concerning the relative efficiency of the stock markets examined. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

Long memory in log-range series:do structural breaks matter?

This paper examines whether the observed long memory behavior of log-range series is to some extent spurious and whether it can be explained by the presence of structural breaks. Utilizing stock market data we show that the characterization of log-range series as long memory processes can be a strong assumption. Moreover, we find that all examined series experience a large number of significant breaks. Once the breaks are accounted for, the volatility persistence is eliminated. Overall, the findings suggest that volatility can be adequately represented, at least in-sample, through a multiple breaks process and a short run component.

Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis:a study of Eastern European stock markets

This paper assesses the extent to which the equity markets of Hungary, Poland the Czech Republic and Russia have become less segmented. Using a variety of tests it is shown there has been a consistent increase in the co-movement of some Eastern European markets and developed markets. Using the variance decompositions from a vector autoregressive representation of returns it is shown that for Poland and Hungary global factors are having an increasing influence on equity returns, suggestive of increased equity market integration. In this paper we model a system of bivariate equity market correlations as a smooth transition logistic trend model in order to establish how rapidly the countries of Eastern Europe are moving away from market segmentation. We find that Hungary is the country which is becoming integrated the most quickly. © 2005 ELsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Price discovery for Chinese shares cross-listed in multiple markets

In this article we study the relationship between security returns cross-listed on the A share market of China and the H share market at the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). Most of these securities are also cross-listed on other markets. An important feature of this article is that we focus on the multilateral relationships between all cross-listed markets rather than concentrating only on the bi-lateral relationship between A and Hong Kong H shares. Using the impulse response functions and the variance decompositions from a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) process we show that the returns to the A share market are almost exclusively determined by domestic factors. In contrast, we find that the H share market is influenced by both the A share market within China and foreign stock markets elsewhere in the world. Impulse response functions suggest that innovations to the A share market and the Hong Kong H share market are partly transmitted to each other and to stock markets outside China. We show that liquidity has an important role to play in determining the impact that the home market has on cross-listed variance decompositions. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

In search of a sustainable success strategy in the Chinese chemical industry

The Chinese chemical industry is facing fierce competition and changing market dynamics due to the change in the country's economic policy. Its government has applied administr.ttive actions rather than simply relying on the market to address the changing dynamics. It has attempted to privatise government-owned enterprises by corporatisation coupled with industrial restructuring. This paper uses a case study of Peony Printing Ink Co Ltd, a state-owned chemical enterprise, to illustrate the effectiveness of developing internal competences to improve long-term operational performance rather than the adoption of a privatisation approach.

Success strategies in the Chinese chemical industry: a survey and case study investigations

The chemical industry in China is facing fierce competition and exposure to market forces as a result of changes in the country's economic policy. The Chinese government has applied administrative actions rather than simply relying on market forces to address the changing dynamics. It has attempted to privatise state-owned chemical enterprises (SOCEs) by corporatisation, coupled with industrial restructuring by merging individual state-owned enterprises into groups. Based on a quantitative survey in combination with case studies of two Chinese chemical enterprises, this paper concludes that in this industry building competences is more effective than privatisation and restructuring to improve performance.

Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence

We examine the short-term price reaction of 424 UK stocks to large one-day price changes. Using the GJR-GARCH(1,1), we find no statistical difference amongst the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the Single Index, the Fama–French and the Carhart–Fama–French models. Shocks bigger or equal to 5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of 1% for all the models. Whilst shocks smaller or equal to -5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of -0.43% for the Single Index, the CARs are around -0.34% for the other two models. Positive shocks of all sizes and negative shocks maller or equal to -5% are followed by return continuations, whilst the market is efficient following larger negative shocks. The price reaction to shocks is unaffected when we estimate the CARs using the conditional covariances of the pricing variables.

The sensitivity of US banks' stock returns to interest and exchange rate changes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity. Findings – The findings are as follows: under the conditional t-distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness-of-fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity. Practical implications – Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH-type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns. Originality/value – The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

A study of the attitudes towards unethical selling amongst Chinese salespeople

The latter part of the twentieth century saw the Chinese economy moving towards a socialist market economy rather than a planned system. Despite growing interest in Chinese business ethics, little work has examined ethical issues concerning the Chinese sales force. This study draws from existing work on Chinese and Western business and sales ethics to develop hypotheses regarding the perceptions of unethical selling behaviour of modern Chinese salespeople. A survey of Chinese sales executives is conducted and statistically analysed. Results are compared with those reported in previous US-based research with regard to differences in perceptions of unethical selling behaviour. The results indicate that contemporary Chinese salespeople were more favourably disposed than expected towards unethical selling behaviour, and also more favourably disposed than previously studied US salespeople. Younger Chinese salespeople evaluated unethical behaviours more favourably than older ones. The results are discussed, along with implications for theory, practice and future work.

Does business environment matter to the development of a market orientation?

Developing a market orientation is one of the key issues in market-orientation research. In this study, based on a survey of top managers from 143 Chinese hotels and 72 travel services—two tourism sectors with distinctly different business environments—we explore the effects of environmental conditions on the development of market orientation. In particular we examine whether environmental conditions have a direct impact on the level of market orientation or whether they moderate the relationship between market orientation and its antecedents. We find that the effectiveness of top management emphasis varies under different environmental conditions but that the impact of other antecedents is not influenced by environmental conditions.

Corporate social responsibility in China:impact of regulations, market orientation and ownership structure

Purpose – This paper aims to report on a study that contributes to the understanding of the determinants of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the largest emerging market, namely China. Design/methodology/approach – The approach is a survey of 600 hotels that resulted in 143 returned responses from top managers. Findings – Market orientation is the most significant predicator of CSR followed by government regulations. In contrast, ownership structure is found to have little effect. Originality/value – Previous research on CSR focuses on its nature and impact on business performance, and is carried out mainly in developed countries. This research contributes to one's understanding of the determinants of CSR in emerging markets like China. © 2007, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets

A two-factor no-arbitrage model is used to provide a theoretical link between stock and bond market volatility. While this model suggests that short-term interest rate volatility may, at least in part, drive both stock and bond market volatility, the empirical evidence suggests that past bond market volatility affects both markets and feeds back into short-term yield volatility. The empirical modelling goes on to examine the (time-varying) correlation structure between volatility in the stock and bond markets and finds that the sign of this correlation has reversed over the last 20 years. This has important implications far portfolio selection in financial markets. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stock price distributions and news:evidence from index options

We estimate the shape of the distribution of stock prices using data from options on the underlying asset, and test whether this distribution is distorted in a systematic manner each time a particular news event occurs. In particular we look at the response of the FTSE100 index to market wide announcements of key macroeconomic indicators and policy variables. We show that the whole distribution of stock prices can be distorted on an event day. The shift in distributional shape happens whether the event is characterized as an announcement occurrence or as a measured surprise. We find that larger surprises have proportionately greater impact, and that higher moments are more sensitive to events however characterised.

The impact of the post-1993 economic reforms on Chinese state-owned enterprises:evidence from the electronics industry

Since 1979, China has embarked on a series of economic reform programmes, leading its socialist economy away from a Soviet planning model towards a much greater reliance on the market. In the course of the last twenty years, the Chinese economy has enjoyed a phenomenally high economic growth rate. However, earlier research suggests that Chinese state-owned enterprises remain a financial 'black hole' for the Chinese economy, in spite of various enterprise reform measures. This thesis tries to assess the impact of the reforms after 1993, especially the so-called Modern Enterprise System, on the behaviour and management practices of state firms. The central research question is whether the new rounds of economic reform have changed state firms into commercial entities operating according to market signals, as intended. In order to explore this question, an institutional approach is employed. More specifically, the thesis examines how the behaviour and management practices of state enterprises have changed with changes in the institutional environmental resulting from the introduction of new reform measures and especially the MES. The main evidence used in this research comes from the Chinese electronics industry (CEI). Non-state firms, namely collectives and joint ventures, are involved in the study to provide a benchmark against which changes in the behaviour of state firms in the mid and late 1990s are compared. A comparative statistical analysis shows that state-owned firms, both traditional and corporatised ones, still lag behind collectives and joint ventures in terms of both labour and total factor productivity. The further empirical work of this research consists of a questionnaire survey and case studies that are based on interviews with senior managers of 17 firms in the CEI. The findings of these analyses suggest that there has been little fundamental change in the behaviour pattern of state firms in the 1990s, despite the introduction of the Modern Enterprise System, and that the economic reforms after 1993 so far seem to have failed to transform the state firms into commercial entities operating according to market signals.

Entry modes and performance of foreign direct investment in China

How does a firm choose a proper model of foreign direct investment (FDI) for entering a foreign market? Which mode of entry performs better? What are the performance implications of joint venture (JV) ownership structure? These important questions face a multinational enterprise (MNE) that decides to enter a foreign market. However, few studies have been conducted on such issues, and no consistent or conclusive findings are generated, especially with respect to China. It’s composed of five chapters, providing corresponding answers to the questions given above. Specifically, Chapter One is an overall introductory chapter. Chapter Two is about the choice of entry mode of FDI in China. Chapter Three examines the relationship between four main entry modes and performance. Chapter Four explores the performance implications of JV ownership structure. Chapter Five is an overall concluding chapter. These empirical studies are based on the most recent and richest data that has never been explored in previous studies. It contains information on 11,765 foreign-invested enterprises in China in seven manufacturing industries in 2000, 10,757 in 1999, and 10,666 in 1998. The four FDI entry modes examined include wholly-owned enterprises (WOEs), equity joint ventures (EJVs), contractual joint ventures (CJVs), and joint stock companies (JSCs). In Chapter Two, a multinominal logit model is established, and techniques of multiple linear regression analysis are employed in Chapter Three and Four. It was found that MNEs, under the conditions of a good investment environment, large capital commitment and small cultural distance, prefer the WOE strategy. If these conditions are not met, the EJV mode would be of greater use. The relative propensity to pursue the CJV mode increases with a good investment environment, small capital commitment, and small cultural distance. JSCs are not favoured by MNEs when the investment environment improves and when affiliates are located in the coastal areas. MNEs have been found to have a greater preference for an EJV as a mode of entry into the Chinese market in all industries. It is also found that in terms of return on assets (ROA) and asset turnover, WOEs perform the best, followed by EJVs, CJVs, and JSCs. Finally, minority-owned EJVs or JSCs are found to outperform their majority-owned counterparts in terms of ROA and asset turnover.