Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis

We report an empirical analysis of long-range dependence in the returns of eight stock market indices, using the Rescaled Range Analysis (RRA) to estimate the Hurst exponent. Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations are used to construct critical values for the null hypothesis of no long-range dependence. The issue of disentangling short-range and long-range dependence is examined. Pre-filtering by fitting a (short-range) autoregressive model eliminates part of the long-range dependence when the latter is present, while failure to pre-filter leaves open the possibility of conflating short-range and long-range dependence. There is a strong evidence of long-range dependence for the small central European Czech stock market index PX-glob, and a weaker evidence for two smaller western European stock market indices, MSE (Spain) and SWX (Switzerland). There is little or no evidence of long-range dependence for the other five indices, including those with the largest capitalizations among those considered, DJIA (US) and FTSE350 (UK). These results are generally consistent with prior expectations concerning the relative efficiency of the stock markets examined. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

Long memory in log-range series:do structural breaks matter?

This paper examines whether the observed long memory behavior of log-range series is to some extent spurious and whether it can be explained by the presence of structural breaks. Utilizing stock market data we show that the characterization of log-range series as long memory processes can be a strong assumption. Moreover, we find that all examined series experience a large number of significant breaks. Once the breaks are accounted for, the volatility persistence is eliminated. Overall, the findings suggest that volatility can be adequately represented, at least in-sample, through a multiple breaks process and a short run component.

Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis:a study of Eastern European stock markets

This paper assesses the extent to which the equity markets of Hungary, Poland the Czech Republic and Russia have become less segmented. Using a variety of tests it is shown there has been a consistent increase in the co-movement of some Eastern European markets and developed markets. Using the variance decompositions from a vector autoregressive representation of returns it is shown that for Poland and Hungary global factors are having an increasing influence on equity returns, suggestive of increased equity market integration. In this paper we model a system of bivariate equity market correlations as a smooth transition logistic trend model in order to establish how rapidly the countries of Eastern Europe are moving away from market segmentation. We find that Hungary is the country which is becoming integrated the most quickly. © 2005 ELsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of diversification and market structure on the R&D intensity of large Australian firms

This article empirically investigates the determinants of R&D intensity for large Australian firms (1994–1997). The results indicate that more focused firms have higher R&D intensities and that lower levels of industry competition are associated with lower R&D intensities.

Market value, R&D and intellectual property:an empirical analysis of large Australian firms

This paper considers the value of innovation to large Australian firms. Specifically, we investigate how R&D and intellectual property activity influences the market value of firms, using a Tobin’s q approach. R&D data are available for the period 1994–96 and data on patent, trade mark and design applications for 1996. The findings suggest that R&D and patent activity are positively and significantly associated with market value. The results also suggest that private returns to R&D in Australia are low by international standards.