Practical methods of tracking of nonstationary time series applied to real-world data

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Two real world data sets, containing electricity load demands and foreign exchange market prices, are used to test several different methods, ranging from linear models with fixed parameters, to non-linear models which adapt both parameters and model order on-line. Training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. The results of our experiments show that there are advantages to be gained in tracking real world non-stationary data through the use of more complex adaptive models.

Ownership characteristics and access to finance:evidence from a survey of large privatised companies in Hungary and Poland

We examine financial constraints and forms of finance used for investment, by analysing survey data on 157 large privatised companies in Hungary and Poland for the period 1998 - 2000. The Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling is carried out to obtain inferences about the sample companies' access to finance from a model for categorical outcome. By applying alternative measures of financial constraints we find that foreign companies, companies that are part of domestic industrial groups and enterprises with concentrated ownership are all less constrained in their access to finance. Moreover, we identify alternative modes of finance since different corporate control and past performance characteristics influence the sample firms' choice of finance source. In particular, while being industry-specific, the access to domestic credit is positively associated with company size and past profitability. Industrial group members tend to favour bond issues as well as sells-offs of assets as appropriate types of finance for their investment programmes. Preferences for raising finance in the form of equity are associated with share concentration in a non-monotonic way, being most prevalent in those companies where the dominant owner holds 25%-49% of shares. Close links with a leading bank not only increase the possibility of bond issues but also appear to facilitate access to non-banking sources of funds, in particular, to finance supplied by industrial partners. Finally, reliance on state finance is less likely for the companies whose profiles resemble the case of unconstrained finance, namely, for companies with foreign partners, companies that are part of domestic industrial groups and companies with a strategic investor. Model implications also include that the use of state funds is less likely for Polish than for Hungarian companies.

Higher education for a sustainable world

Purpose: The paper aims to explore the nature and purpose of higher education (HE) in the twenty-first century, focussing on how it can help fashion a green knowledge-based economy by developing approaches to learning and teaching that are social, networked and ecologically sensitive. Design/methodology/approach: The paper presents a discursive analysis of the skills and knowledge requirements of an emerging green knowledge-based economy using a range of policy focussed and academic research literature. Findings: The business opportunities that are emerging as a more sustainable world is developed requires the knowledge and skills that can capture and move then forward but in a complex and uncertain worlds learning needs to non-linear, creative and emergent. Practical implications: Sustainable learning and the attributes graduates will need to exhibit are prefigured in the activities and learning characterising the work and play facilitated by new media technologies. Social implications: Greater emphasis is required in higher learning understood as the capability to learn, adapt and direct sustainable change requires interprofessional co-operation that must utlise the potential of new media technologies to enhance social learning and collective intelligence. Originality/value: The practical relationship between low-carbon economic development, social sustainability and HE learning is based on both normative criteria and actual and emerging projections in economic, technological and skills needs.

Crazy animals and other activities for teaching young learners

This is a book for primary school teachers of English written by primary school teachers of English. It brings together the experience and expertise of teachers from around the world to provide a range of stimulating and exciting classroom activities for the primary classroom. There are 50 tried and trusted activities which have been refined and improved over the years by teachers working in diverse contexts and environments. Children will enjoy practising their English through these stimulating and motivating activities. Over 1 000 teachers were contacted and asked to send their favourite activities for teaching English to young learners. The most original and creative activities received were selected for this book. This book grew out of an Aston University - British Council research project called ‘Investigating Global Practices in Teaching English to Young Learners’.

Perceptions of learning and teaching quality in Higher Education:developing a culture of co-creation of value

Perceptions about the quality of learning and teaching in Higher Education has for many years focused upon the application of market based principles. This includes the notion of students as “customers” of the Higher Education Institutions (HEI) service. We argue that the application of the customer analogy is unhelpful however, as students this approach is likely to affect student expectations about the service and their judgements about its quality. The purpose of this paper is to propose a study consisting of a series of interventions to develop a culture of value co-creation at a UK based HEI. By introducing CCV principles, it is hoped to steer students away from seeing themselves as “customers”, and passive recipients of in the learning and teaching process, to one where they take responsibility for their own learning experience, to be explored and acted upon in partnership with their lecturers and other stakeholders.

Improving “last mile” delivery performance to retailers in hub and spoke distribution systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the “last mile” delivery link between a hub and spoke distribution system and its customers. The proportion of retail, as opposed to non-retail (trade) customers using this type of distribution system has been growing in the UK. The paper shows the applicability of simulation to demonstrate changes in overall delivery policy to these customers. Design/methodology/approach – A case-based research method was chosen with the aim to provide an exemplar of practice and test the proposition that simulation can be used as a tool to investigate changes in delivery policy. Findings – The results indicate the potential improvement in delivery performance, specifically in meeting timed delivery performance, that could be made by having separate retail and non-retail delivery runs from the spoke terminal to the customer. Research limitations/implications – The simulation study does not attempt to generate a vehicle routing schedule but demonstrates the effects of a change on delivery performance when comparing delivery policies. Practical implications – Scheduling and spreadsheet software are widely used and provide useful assistance in the design of delivery runs and the allocation of staff to those delivery runs. This paper demonstrates to managers the usefulness of investigating the efficacy of current design rules and presents simulation as a suitable tool for this analysis. Originality/value – A simulation model is used in a novel application to test a change in delivery policy in response to a changing delivery profile of increased retail deliveries.

Health care professionals' views of paediatric outpatient non-attendance:implications for general practice

Background. Non-attendance at paediatric hospital outpatient appointments poses potential risks to children's health and welfare. Prevention and management of missed appointments depends on the perceptions of clinicians and decision makers from both primary and secondary care, including general practitioners (GPs) who are integral to non-attendance follow-up. Objectives. To examine the views of clinical, managerial and executive health care staff regarding occurrence and management of non-attendance at general paediatric outpatient clinics. Methods. A qualitative study using individual semi-structured interviews was carried out at three English Primary Care Trusts and a nearby children's hospital. Interviews were conducted with 37 staff, including GPs, hospital doctors, other health care professionals, managers, executives and commissioners. Participants were recruited through purposive and 'snowball' sampling methods. Data were analysed following a thematic framework approach. Results. GPs focused on situational difficulties for families, while hospital-based staff emphasized the influence of parents' beliefs on attendance. Managers, executives and commissioners presented a broad overview of both factors, but with less detailed views. All groups discussed sociodemographic factors, with non-attendance thought to be more likely in 'chaotic families'. Hospital interviewees emphasized child protection issues and the need for thorough follow-up of missed appointments. However, GPs were reluctant to interfere with parental responsibilities. Conclusion. Parental motivation and practical and social barriers should be considered. Responsibilities regarding missed appointments are not clear across health care sectors, but GPs are uniquely placed to address non-attendance issues and are central to child safeguarding. Primary care policies and strategies could be introduced to reduce non-attendance and ensure children receive the care they require. © The Author 2013.

Speech and non-speech stimuli in the prediction of early reading skills:the influence of processing demands and response-type

Purpose: Both phonological (speech) and auditory (non-speech) stimuli have been shown to predict early reading skills. However, previous studies have failed to control for the level of processing required by tasks administered across the two levels of stimuli. For example, phonological tasks typically tap explicit awareness e.g., phoneme deletion, while auditory tasks usually measure implicit awareness e.g., frequency discrimination. Therefore, the stronger predictive power of speech tasks may be due to their higher processing demands, rather than the nature of the stimuli. Method: The present study uses novel tasks that control for level of processing (isolation, repetition and deletion) across speech (phonemes and nonwords) and non-speech (tones) stimuli. 800 beginning readers at the onset of literacy tuition (mean age 4 years and 7 months) were assessed on the above tasks as well as word reading and letter-knowledge in the first part of a three time-point longitudinal study. Results: Time 1 results reveal a significantly higher association between letter-sound knowledge and all of the speech compared to non-speech tasks. Performance was better for phoneme than tone stimuli, and worse for deletion than isolation and repetition across all stimuli. Conclusions: Results are consistent with phonological accounts of reading and suggest that level of processing required by the task is less important than stimuli type in predicting the earliest stage of reading.

Non-enterobacterial endotoxins stimulate human coronary artery but not venous endothelial cell activation via toll-like receptor 2

To determine whether non-enterobacterial endotoxins, which are likely to constitute the majority of the circulating endotoxin pool, may stimulate coronary artery endothelial cell activation. Interleukin-8 secretion, monocyte adhesion, and E-selectin expression were measured in human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) and coronary artery endothelial cells (HCAECs) challenged in vitro with highly purified endotoxins of common host colonisers Escherichia coli, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Bacteroides fragilis. HCAECs but not HUVECs expressed Toll-like receptor (TLR)-2 and were responsive to non-enterobacterial endotoxins. Transfection of TLR-deficient HEK-293 cells with TLR2 or TLR4/MD2 revealed that while E. coli endotoxin utilised solely TLR4 to signal, the endotoxins, deglycosylated endotoxins (lipid-A), and whole heat-killed bacteria of the other species stimulated TLR2-but not TLR4-dependent cell-signalling. Blockade of TLR2 with neutralizing antibody prevented HCAEC activation by non-enterobacterial endotoxins. Comparison of each endotoxin with E. coli endotoxin in limulus amoebocyte lysate assay revealed that the non-enterobacterial endotoxins are greatly underestimated by this assay, which has been used in all previous studies to estimate plasma endotoxin concentrations. Circulating non-enterobacterial endotoxins may be an underestimated contributor to endothelial activation and atherosclerosis in individuals at risk of increased plasma endotoxin burden.

A KM perspective on implementing an electronic patient record within an NHS hospital

The Electronic Patient Record (EPR) is being developed by many hospitals in the UK and across the globe. We class an EPR system as a type of Knowledge Management System (KMS), in that it is a technological tool developed to support the process of knowledge management (KM). Healthcare organisations aim to use these systems to provide a vehicle for more informed and improved clinical decision making thereby delivering reduced errors and risks, enhanced quality and consequently offering enhanced patient safety. Finding an effective way for a healthcare organisation to practically implement these systems is essential. In this study we use the concept of the business process approach to KM as a theoretical lens to analyse and explore how a large NHS teaching hospital developed, executed and practically implemented an EPR system. This theory advocates the importance of taking into account all organizational activities - the business processes - in considering any KM initiatives. Approaching KM through business processes allows for a more holistic view of the requirements across a process: emphasis is placed on how particular activities are performed, how they are structured and what knowledge demanded and not just supplied across each process. This falls in line with the increased emphasis in healthcare on patient-centred approaches to care delivery. We have found in previous research that hospitals are happy with the delivery of patient care being referred to as their 'business'. A qualitative study was conducted over a two and half year period with data collected from semi-structured interviews with eight members of the strategic management team, 12 clinical users and 20 patients in addition to non- participant observation of meetings and documentary data. We believe that the inclusion of patients within the study may well be the first time this has been done in examining the implementation of a KMS. The theoretical propositions strategy was used as the overarching approach for data analysis. Here Initial theoretical research themes and propositions were used to help shape and organise the case study analysis. This paper will present preliminary findings about the hospital's business strategy and its links to the KMS strategy and process.

Severe visual impairment due to diabetes mellitus:can this be influenced by community & hospital retinal screening and formal hospital diabetic annual review?

Purpose: Diabetes is a leading cause of visual impairment in working age population in the UK. This study looked at the causes of Severe Visual Impairment(SVI) in the patients attending diabetic eye clinic and influence on the rate of SVI, over a 12 year period, after introducing retinal screening programmes in the hospital and the community in 1993 (review in 1992, 1998 & 2004). Methods: Medical records of all the patients attending the diabetic eye clinic over a period of 5months(April to August) in 1992, 1998 and 2004 were reviewed. The data collected for each patient included age, sex, ethnic origin, diabetes (type,duration &treatment), the best corrected visual acuity (present and at time of presentation), type and duration of retinopathy and attendance record to both diabetic clinic and diabetic eye clinic. In this study, SVI is defined as a visual acuity of 6/36 or worse in at least one eye. Results: In 1992, of a total 245 patients, 58patients(23.6%) had SVI {38 (15.5% of total) due to diabetic retinopathy [31(12.6%) maculopathy, 2(0.8%) vitreous haemorrhage and 5(2%) retinal detachment] and 20(8.1%) due to non–diabetic retinopathy causes}. In 1998, of a total 297, 77patients(25.9%) had SVI {33(11.1% of total) due to diabetic retinopathy [19(6.4%) maculopathy, 9(3%) proliferative retinopathy, 8(2.7%) vitreous haemorrhage and 3(1%) retinal detachment]and 44(14.8%)due to non–diabetic retinopathy}. In 2004, of a total 471, 72patients(15.2%) had SVI{46(9.7%of total) due to diabetic retinopathy [37(7.8%) maculopathy, 1(0.2%) proliferative retinopathy, 6(1.8%) vitreous haemorrhage and 2(0.4%) retinal detachment]and 26(5.5%) due to non– diabetic retinopathy causes}. Conclusions: Introduction of formalised annual diabetic review including retinal screening and a community retinal screening programme has reduced the rate of severe visual impairment due to diabetic retinopathy, in patients attending diabetic eye clinic, from 15.5% in1992 to 9.7% in2004. Keywords: diabetic retinopathy

Emotion recognition and alexithymia in females with non-clinical disordered eating

Objectives: The aims were to determine if emotion recognition deficits observed in eating disorders generalise to non-clinical disordered eating and to establish if other psychopathological and personality factors contributed to, or accounted for, these deficits. Design: Females with high (n=23) and low (n=22) scores on the Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI) were assessed on their ability to recognise emotion from videotaped social interactions. Participants also completed a face memory task, a Stroop task, and self-report measures of alexithymia, depression and anxiety. Results: Relative to the low EDI group, high EDI participants exhibited a general deficit in recognition of emotion, which was related to their scores on the alexithymia measure and the bulimia subscale of the EDI. They also exhibited a specific deficit in the recognition of anger, which was related to their scores on the body dissatisfaction subscale of the EDI. Conclusions: In line with clinical eating disorders, non-clinical disordered eating is associated with emotion recognition deficits. However, the nature of these deficits appears to be dependent upon the type of eating psychopathology and the degree of co-morbid alexithymia.

The methaemoglobin forming and GSH depleting effects of dapsone and monoacetyl dapsone hydroxylamines in human diabetic and non-diabetic erythrocytes in vitro

The respective methaemoglobin forming and GSH depleting capabilities of monoacetyl dapsone hydroxylamine (MADDS-NHOH) and dapsone hydroxylamine (DDS-NHOH) were compared in human diabetic and non-diabetic erythrocytes in vitro with a view to select the most potent agent for future oxidative stress and antioxidant evaluation studies. Administration of both metabolites to non-diabetic erythrocytes over the 20 min period of the study resulted in significantly more methaemoglobin formation at all four time points compared with the diabetic erythrocytes (P<0.0001). At all four time points, significantly more methaemoglobin was formed in response to MADDS-NHOH in non-diabetic cells compared with the effects of DDS-NHOH on diabetic erythrocytes (P<0.0001). At the 5 and 10 min time points, significantly more methaemglobin was formed in non-diabetic cells in the presence of MADDS-NHOH compared with DDS-NHOH (P<0.05). At the 5 min time point only, significantly more methaemoglobin was formed in the presence of MADDS-NHOH in diabetic cells compared with that of DDS-NHOH (P<0.01). However, compared with diabetic control GSH levels, the presence of DDS-NHOH caused a significant depletion in GSH at 5, 10 and 20 min time points in diabetic cells (P<0.001). In addition, the presence of DDS-NHOH caused a significant reduction in GSH levels in diabetic cells in comparison with those of non-diabetics at the 5, 10 and 20 min, (P<0.005). DDS-NHOH was also associated with a significant depletion of GSH levels in diabetic cells compared with those of non-diabetic control erythrocytes (P<0.0001). The presence of MADDS-NHOH in diabetic erythrocytes led to a significant reduction in GSH levels at the 20 min time point compared with those of non-diabetics (P<0.001), but there were no significant differences at the 5, 10 and 15 min points. Due to its greater GSH-depleting action, DDS-NHOH will be selected for future use in the oxidative stress assessment in diabetic erythrocytes. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The 'law of requisite variety' may assist climate change negotiations:a review of the Kyoto and Durban meetings

Ashby wrote about cybernetics, during which discourse he described a Law that attempts to resolve difficulties arising in complex situations – he suggested using variety to combat complexity. In this paper, we note that the delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Kyoto, 1997, were offered a ‘simplifying solution’ to cope with the complexity of discussing multiple pollutants allegedly contributing to ‘climate change’. We assert that the adoption of CO2eq has resulted in imprecise thinking regarding the ‘carbon footprint’ – that is, ‘CO2’ – to the exclusion of other pollutants. We propose, as Ashby might have done, that the CO2eq and other factors within the ‘climate change’ negotiations be disaggregated to allow careful and specific individual solutions to be agreed on each factor. We propose a new permanent and transparent ‘action group’ be in charge of agenda setting and to manage the messy annual meetings. This body would be responsible for achieving accords at these annual meetings, rather than forcing this task on national hosts. We acknowledge the task is daunting and we recommend moving on from Ashby's Law to Beer's Viable Systems approach.

Pain management programmes for non-English-speaking black and minority ethnic groups with long-term or chronic pain

Increasing ethnic diversity in the UK means that there is a growing need for National Health Service care to be delivered to non-English-speaking patients. The aims of the present systematic review were to: (1) better understand the outcomes of chronic pain management programmes (PMPs) for ethnic minority and non-English-speaking patients and (2) explore the perspectives on and experiences of chronic pain for these groups. A systematic review identified 26 papers meeting the inclusion criteria; no papers reported on the outcomes of PMPs delivered in the UK. Of the papers obtained, four reported on PMPs conducted outside the UK; eight reported on ethnic differences in patients seeking support from pain management services in America; and the remaining papers included literature reviews, an experimental pain study, a collaborative enquiry, and a survey of patient and clinician ratings of pain. The findings indicate a lack of research into UK-based pain management for ethnic minorities and non-English-speaking patients. The literature suggests that effective PMPs must be tailored to meet cultural experiences of pain and beliefs about pain management. There is a need for further research to explore these cultural beliefs in non-English-speaking groups in the UK. Culturally sensitive evaluations of interpreted PMPs with long-term follow-up are needed to assess the effectiveness of current provision. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.