Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Passive nonlinear pulse shaping in normally dispersive fiber systems

We propose a novel approach to characterize the parabolically-shaped pulses that can be generated from more conventional pulses via nonlinear propagation in cascaded sections of commercially available normally dispersive (ND) fibers. The impact of the initial pulse chirp on the passive pulse reshaping is examined. We furthermore demonstrate that the combination of pulse pre-chirping and propagation in a single ND fiber yields a simple, passive method for generating various temporal waveforms of practical interest.

Modelling nonlinear stochastic dynamics in financial time series

For analysing financial time series two main opposing viewpoints exist, either capital markets are completely stochastic and therefore prices follow a random walk, or they are deterministic and consequently predictable. For each of these views a great variety of tools exist with which it can be tried to confirm the hypotheses. Unfortunately, these methods are not well suited for dealing with data characterised in part by both paradigms. This thesis investigates these two approaches in order to model the behaviour of financial time series. In the deterministic framework methods are used to characterise the dimensionality of embedded financial data. The stochastic approach includes here an estimation of the unconditioned and conditional return distributions using parametric, non- and semi-parametric density estimation techniques. Finally, it will be shown how elements from these two approaches could be combined to achieve a more realistic model for financial time series.

Nonlinear spectral shaping and optical rogue events in fiber-based systems

We provide an overview of our recent work on the shaping and stability of optical continua in the long pulse regime. Fibers with normal group-velocity dispersion at all-wavelengths are shown to allow for highly coherent continua that can be nonlinearly shaped using appropriate initial conditions. In contrast, supercontinua generated in the anomalous dispersion regime are shown to exhibit large fluctuations in the temporal and spectral domains that can be controlled using a carefully chosen seed. A particular example of this is the first experimental observation of the Peregrine soliton which constitutes a prototype of optical rogue-waves.

Intermediate asymptotics in nonlinear optical systems

Using a fiber laser system as a specific illustrative example, we introduce the concept of intermediate asymptotic states in finite nonlinear optical systems. We show that intermediate asymptotics of nonlinear equations (e.g., coherent structures with a finite lifetime or distance) can be used in applications similar to those of truly stable asymptotic solutions, such as, e.g., solitons and dissipative nonlinear waves. Applying this general idea to a particular, albeit practically important, physical system, we demonstrate a novel type of nonlinear pulse-shaping regime in a mode-locked fiber laser leading to the generation of linearly chirped pulses with a triangular distribution of the intensity.

Dissipative nonlinear structures in optical fiber systems I : dissipative dispersion managed solitons in mode-locked lasers

In this first talk on dissipative structures in fiber applications, we extend theory of dispersion-managed solitons to dissipative systems with a focus on mode-locked fibre lasers. Dissipative structures exist at high map strengths leading to the generation of stable, short pulses with high energy. Two types of intra-map pulse evolutions are observed depending on the net cavity dispersion. These are characterized by a reduced model and semi-analytical solutions are obtained.

Dissipative nonlinear structures in optical fiber systems II : self-similar parabolic pulses in active fibers

In this second talk on dissipative structures in fiber applications, we overview theoretical aspects of the generation, evolution and characterization of self-similar parabolic-shaped pulses in fiber amplifier media. In particular, we present a perturbation analysis that describes the structural changes induced by third-order fiber dispersion on the parabolic pulse solution of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with gain. Promising applications of parabolic pulses in optical signal post-processing and regeneration in communication systems are also discussed.

Dissipative nonlinear structures in optical fiber systems III : dissipative solitons via nonlinear mapping

In the third and final talk on dissipative structures in fiber applications, we discuss mathematical techniques that can be used to characterize modern laser systems that consist of several discrete elements. In particular, we use a nonlinear mapping technique to evaluate high power laser systems where significant changes in the pulse evolution per cavity round trip is observed. We demonstrate that dissipative soliton solutions might be effectively described using this Poincaré mapping approach.

Compensation of nonlinear fibre impairments in coherent systems employing spectrally efficient modulation formats

We investigate electronic mitigation of linear and non-linear fibre impairments and compare various digital signal processing techniques, including electronic dispersion compensation (EDC), single-channel back-propagation (SC-BP) and back-propagation with multiple channel processing (MC-BP) in a nine-channel 112 Gb/s PM-mQAM (m=4,16) WDM system, for reaches up to 6,320 km. We show that, for a sufficiently high local dispersion, SC-BP is sufficient to provide a significant performance enhancement when compared to EDC, and is adequate to achieve BER below FEC threshold. For these conditions we report that a sampling rate of two samples per symbol is sufficient for practical SC-BP, without significant penalties.

Auto-solitons guided by in-line nonlinear optical loop mirrors in dispersion-managed communication systems

Summary form only given. Both dispersion management and the use of a nonlinear optical loop mirror (NOLM) as a saturable absorber can improve the performance of a soliton-based communication system. Dispersion management gives the benefits of low average dispersion while allowing pulses with higher powers to propagate, which helps to suppress Gordon-Haus timing jitter without sacrificing the signal-to-noise ratio. The NOLM suppresses the buildup of amplifier spontaneous emission noise and background dispersive radiation which, if allowed to interact with the soliton, can lead to its breakup. We examine optical pulse propagation in dispersion-managed (DM) transmission system with periodically inserted in-line NOLMs. To describe basic features of the signal transmission in such lines, we develop a simple theory based on a variational approach involving Gaussian trial functions. It, has already been proved that the variational method is an extremely effective tool for description of DM solitons. In the work we manage to include in the variational description the point action of the NOLM on pulse parameters, assuming that the Gaussian pulse shape is inherently preserved by propagation through the NOLM. The obtained results are verified by direct numerical simulations

Nonlinear spectral shaping and optical rogue events in fiber-based systems

We provide an overview of our recent work on the shaping and stability of optical continua in the long pulse regime. Fibers with normal group-velocity dispersion at all-wavelengths are shown to allow for highly coherent continua that can be nonlinearly shaped using appropriate initial conditions. In contrast, supercontinua generated in the anomalous dispersion regime are shown to exhibit large fluctuations in the temporal and spectral domains that can be controlled using a carefully chosen seed. A particular example of this is the first experimental observation of the Peregrine soliton which constitutes a prototype of optical rogue-waves. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.