Inference by replication in densely connected systems

An efficient Bayesian inference method for problems that can be mapped onto dense graphs is presented. The approach is based on message passing where messages are averaged over a large number of replicated variable systems exposed to the same evidential nodes. An assumption about the symmetry of the solutions is required for carrying out the averages; here we extend the previous derivation based on a replica-symmetric- (RS)-like structure to include a more complex one-step replica-symmetry-breaking-like (1RSB-like) ansatz. To demonstrate the potential of the approach it is employed for studying critical properties of the Ising linear perceptron and for multiuser detection in code division multiple access (CDMA) under different noise models. Results obtained under the RS assumption in the noncritical regime give rise to a highly efficient signal detection algorithm in the context of CDMA; while in the critical regime one observes a first-order transition line that ends in a continuous phase transition point. Finite size effects are also observed. While the 1RSB ansatz is not required for the original problems, it was applied to the CDMA signal detection problem with a more complex noise model that exhibits RSB behavior, resulting in an improvement in performance. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Hydrogels containing linear and cyclic polyethers

Hydrogels are a unique class of polymer which swell, but do not dissolve in, water. A range of 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate based copolymer hydrogels containing both cyclic and linear polyethers have been synthesised and are described in this thesis. Initially, cyclic polyethers were occluded within the polymer matrix and the transport properties investigated. The results indicated that the presence of an ionophore can be used to modulate ion transport and that ion transport is described by a dual-sorption mechanism. However, these studies were limited due to ionophore loss during hydration. Hence, the synthesis of a range of acrylate based crown ether monomers was considered. A pure sample of 4-acryolylaminobenzo-15-crown-5 was obtained and a terpolymer containing this monomer was prepared. Transport studies illustrated that the presence of a `bound' ionophore modulates ion transport in a similar way to the occluded systems. The transport properties of a series of terpolymers containing linear polyethers were then investigated. The results indicated that the dual-sorption mechanism is observed for these systems with group II metal cations while the transport of group I metal cations, with the exception of sodium, is enhanced. Finally, the equilibrium water contents (EWC) surface and mechanical properties of these terpolymers containing linear polyethers were examined. Although subtle variations in EWC are observed as the structure of the polyether side chain varies, generally EWC is enhanced due to the hydrophilicity of the polyether side chain. The macroscopic surface properties were investigated using a sessile drop technique and FTIR spectroscopy. At a molecular level surface properties were probed using an in vitro ocular spoilation model and preliminary cell adhesion studies. The results indicate that the polyethylene oxide side chains are expressed at the polymer surface thus reducing the adhesion of biological species.

Approximating differentiable relationships between delay embedded dynamical systems with radical basis functions

This thesis is about the study of relationships between experimental dynamical systems. The basic approach is to fit radial basis function maps between time delay embeddings of manifolds. We have shown that under certain conditions these maps are generically diffeomorphisms, and can be analysed to determine whether or not the manifolds in question are diffeomorphically related to each other. If not, a study of the distribution of errors may provide information about the lack of equivalence between the two. The method has applications wherever two or more sensors are used to measure a single system, or where a single sensor can respond on more than one time scale: their respective time series can be tested to determine whether or not they are coupled, and to what degree. One application which we have explored is the determination of a minimum embedding dimension for dynamical system reconstruction. In this special case the diffeomorphism in question is closely related to the predictor for the time series itself. Linear transformations of delay embedded manifolds can also be shown to have nonlinear inverses under the right conditions, and we have used radial basis functions to approximate these inverse maps in a variety of contexts. This method is particularly useful when the linear transformation corresponds to the delay embedding of a finite impulse response filtered time series. One application of fitting an inverse to this linear map is the detection of periodic orbits in chaotic attractors, using suitably tuned filters. This method has also been used to separate signals with known bandwidths from deterministic noise, by tuning a filter to stop the signal and then recovering the chaos with the nonlinear inverse. The method may have applications to the cancellation of noise generated by mechanical or electrical systems. In the course of this research a sophisticated piece of software has been developed. The program allows the construction of a hierarchy of delay embeddings from scalar and multi-valued time series. The embedded objects can be analysed graphically, and radial basis function maps can be fitted between them asynchronously, in parallel, on a multi-processor machine. In addition to a graphical user interface, the program can be driven by a batch mode command language, incorporating the concept of parallel and sequential instruction groups and enabling complex sequences of experiments to be performed in parallel in a resource-efficient manner.

An Investigation into the adoption and implementation of computer aided production management systems:using the Rogers model of adoption and implementation and a social constuctionist account of technology

The research investigates the processes of adoption and implementation, by organisations, of computer aided production management systems (CAPM). It is organised around two different theoretical perspectives. The first part is informed by the Rogers model of the diffusion, adoption and implementation of innovations, and the second part by a social constructionist approach to technology. Rogers' work is critically evaluated and a model of adoption and implementation is distilled from it and applied to a set of empirical case studies. In the light of the case study data, strengths and weaknesses of the model are identified. It is argued that the model is too rational and linear to provide an adequate explanation of adoption processes. It is useful for understanding processes of implementation but requires further development. The model is not able to adequately encompass complex computer based technologies. However, the idea of 'reinvention' is identified as Roger's key concept but it needs to be conceptually extended. Both Roger's model and definition of CAPM found in the literature from production engineering tend to treat CAPM in objectivist terms. The problems with this view are addressed through a review of the literature on the sociology of technology, and it is argued that a social constructionist approach offers a more useful framework for understanding CAPM, its nature, adoption, implementation, and use. CAPM it is argued, must be understood on terms of the ways in which it is constituted in discourse, as part of a 'struggle for meaning' on the part of academics, professional engineers, suppliers, and users.

An advanced real-time predictive maintenance framework for large scale machine systems

This thesis introduces and develops a novel real-time predictive maintenance system to estimate the machine system parameters using the motion current signature. Recently, motion current signature analysis has been addressed as an alternative to the use of sensors for monitoring internal faults of a motor. A maintenance system based upon the analysis of motion current signature avoids the need for the implementation and maintenance of expensive motion sensing technology. By developing nonlinear dynamical analysis for motion current signature, the research described in this thesis implements a novel real-time predictive maintenance system for current and future manufacturing machine systems. A crucial concept underpinning this project is that the motion current signature contains infor­mation relating to the machine system parameters and that this information can be extracted using nonlinear mapping techniques, such as neural networks. Towards this end, a proof of con­cept procedure is performed, which substantiates this concept. A simulation model, TuneLearn, is developed to simulate the large amount of training data required by the neural network ap­proach. Statistical validation and verification of the model is performed to ascertain confidence in the simulated motion current signature. Validation experiment concludes that, although, the simulation model generates a good macro-dynamical mapping of the motion current signature, it fails to accurately map the micro-dynamical structure due to the lack of knowledge regarding performance of higher order and nonlinear factors, such as backlash and compliance. Failure of the simulation model to determine the micro-dynamical structure suggests the pres­ence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature. This motivated us to perform surrogate data testing for nonlinearity in the motion current signature. Results confirm the presence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature, thereby, motivating the use of nonlinear tech­niques for further analysis. Outcomes of the experiment show that nonlinear noise reduction combined with the linear reverse algorithm offers precise machine system parameter estimation using the motion current signature for the implementation of the real-time predictive maintenance system. Finally, a linear reverse algorithm, BJEST, is developed and applied to the motion current signature to estimate the machine system parameters.

Synchronization processes in nonlinear systems and their relation to cortical oscillatory dynamics

This thesis was focused on theoretical models of synchronization to cortical dynamics as measured by magnetoencephalography (MEG). Dynamical systems theory was used in both identifying relevant variables for brain coordination and also in devising methods for their quantification. We presented a method for studying interactions of linear and chaotic neuronal sources using MEG beamforming techniques. We showed that such sources can be accurately reconstructed in terms of their location, temporal dynamics and possible interactions. Synchronization in low-dimensional nonlinear systems was studied to explore specific correlates of functional integration and segregation. In the case of interacting dissimilar systems, relevant coordination phenomena involved generalized and phase synchronization, which were often intermittent. Spatially-extended systems were then studied. For locally-coupled dissimilar systems, as in the case of cortical columns, clustering behaviour occurred. Synchronized clusters emerged at different frequencies and their boundaries were marked through oscillation death. The macroscopic mean field revealed sharp spectral peaks at the frequencies of the clusters and broader spectral drops at their boundaries. These results question existing models of Event Related Synchronization and Desynchronization. We re-examined the concept of the steady-state evoked response following an AM stimulus. We showed that very little variability in the AM following response could be accounted by system noise. We presented a methodology for detecting local and global nonlinear interactions from MEG data in order to account for residual variability. We found crosshemispheric nonlinear interactions of ongoing cortical rhythms concurrent with the stimulus and interactions of these rhythms with the following AM responses. Finally, we hypothesized that holistic spatial stimuli would be accompanied by the emergence of clusters in primary visual cortex resulting in frequency-specific MEG oscillations. Indeed, we found different frequency distributions in induced gamma oscillations for different spatial stimuli, which was suggestive of temporal coding of these spatial stimuli. Further, we addressed the bursting character of these oscillations, which was suggestive of intermittent nonlinear dynamics. However, we did not observe the characteristic-3/2 power-law scaling in the distribution of interburst intervals. Further, this distribution was only seldom significantly different to the one obtained in surrogate data, where nonlinear structure was destroyed. In conclusion, the work presented in this thesis suggests that advances in dynamical systems theory in conjunction with developments in magnetoencephalography may facilitate a mapping between levels of description int he brain. this may potentially represent a major advancement in neuroscience.

Cortical activity during rotational and linear transformations

Neuroimaging studies of cortical activation during image transformation tasks have shown that mental rotation may rely on similar brain regions as those underlying visual perceptual mechanisms. The V5 complex, which is specialised for visual motion, is one region that has been implicated. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate rotational and linear transformation of stimuli. Areas of significant brain activation were identified for each of the primary mental transformation tasks in contrast to its own perceptual reference task which was cognitively matched in all respects except for the variable of interest. Analysis of group data for perception of rotational and linear motion showed activation in areas corresponding to V5 as defined in earlier studies. Both rotational and linear mental transformations activated Brodman Area (BA) 19 but did not activate V5. An area within the inferior temporal gyrus, representing an inferior satellite area of V5, was activated by both the rotational perception and rotational transformation tasks, but showed no activation in response to linear motion perception or transformation. The findings demonstrate the extent to which neural substrates for image transformation and perception overlap and are distinct as well as revealing functional specialisation within perception and transformation processing systems.

Numerical and statistical analysis of long-haul undersea optical communication systems

Firstly, we numerically model a practical 20 Gb/s undersea configuration employing the Return-to-Zero Differential Phase Shift Keying data format. The modelling is completed using the Split-Step Fourier Method to solve the Generalised Nonlinear Schrdinger Equation. We optimise the dispersion map and per-channel launch power of these channels and investigate how the choice of pre/post compensation can influence the performance. After obtaining these optimal configurations, we investigate the Bit Error Rate estimation of these systems and we see that estimation based on Gaussian electrical current systems is appropriate for systems of this type, indicating quasi-linear behaviour. The introduction of narrower pulses due to the deployment of quasi-linear transmission decreases the tolerance to chromatic dispersion and intra-channel nonlinearity. We used tools from Mathematical Statistics to study the behaviour of these channels in order to develop new methods to estimate Bit Error Rate. In the final section, we consider the estimation of Eye Closure Penalty, a popular measure of signal distortion. Using a numerical example and assuming the symmetry of eye closure, we see that we can simply estimate Eye Closure Penalty using Gaussian statistics. We also see that the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of signal distortion in the case of Return-to-Zero On-Off Keying configurations.

Typical case behaviour of spin systems in random graph and composite ensembles

This thesis includes analysis of disordered spin ensembles corresponding to Exact Cover, a multi-access channel problem, and composite models combining sparse and dense interactions. The satisfiability problem in Exact Cover is addressed using a statistical analysis of a simple branch and bound algorithm. The algorithm can be formulated in the large system limit as a branching process, for which critical properties can be analysed. Far from the critical point a set of differential equations may be used to model the process, and these are solved by numerical integration and exact bounding methods. The multi-access channel problem is formulated as an equilibrium statistical physics problem for the case of bit transmission on a channel with power control and synchronisation. A sparse code division multiple access method is considered and the optimal detection properties are examined in typical case by use of the replica method, and compared to detection performance achieved by interactive decoding methods. These codes are found to have phenomena closely resembling the well-understood dense codes. The composite model is introduced as an abstraction of canonical sparse and dense disordered spin models. The model includes couplings due to both dense and sparse topologies simultaneously. The new type of codes are shown to outperform sparse and dense codes in some regimes both in optimal performance, and in performance achieved by iterative detection methods in finite systems.

Predictive gene lists for breast cancer prognosis: a topographic visualisation study

Background: The controversy surrounding the non-uniqueness of predictive gene lists (PGL) of small selected subsets of genes from very large potential candidates as available in DNA microarray experiments is now widely acknowledged 1. Many of these studies have focused on constructing discriminative semi-parametric models and as such are also subject to the issue of random correlations of sparse model selection in high dimensional spaces. In this work we outline a different approach based around an unsupervised patient-specific nonlinear topographic projection in predictive gene lists. Methods: We construct nonlinear topographic projection maps based on inter-patient gene-list relative dissimilarities. The Neuroscale, the Stochastic Neighbor Embedding(SNE) and the Locally Linear Embedding(LLE) techniques have been used to construct two-dimensional projective visualisation plots of 70 dimensional PGLs per patient, classifiers are also constructed to identify the prognosis indicator of each patient using the resulting projections from those visualisation techniques and investigate whether a-posteriori two prognosis groups are separable on the evidence of the gene lists. A literature-proposed predictive gene list for breast cancer is benchmarked against a separate gene list using the above methods. Generalisation ability is investigated by using the mapping capability of Neuroscale to visualise the follow-up study, but based on the projections derived from the original dataset. Results: The results indicate that small subsets of patient-specific PGLs have insufficient prognostic dissimilarity to permit a distinction between two prognosis patients. Uncertainty and diversity across multiple gene expressions prevents unambiguous or even confident patient grouping. Comparative projections across different PGLs provide similar results. Conclusion: The random correlation effect to an arbitrary outcome induced by small subset selection from very high dimensional interrelated gene expression profiles leads to an outcome with associated uncertainty. This continuum and uncertainty precludes any attempts at constructing discriminative classifiers. However a patient's gene expression profile could possibly be used in treatment planning, based on knowledge of other patients' responses. We conclude that many of the patients involved in such medical studies are intrinsically unclassifiable on the basis of provided PGL evidence. This additional category of 'unclassifiable' should be accommodated within medical decision support systems if serious errors and unnecessary adjuvant therapy are to be avoided.

Binary sparse nonnegative matrix factorization

This paper presents a fast part-based subspace selection algorithm, termed the binary sparse nonnegative matrix factorization (B-SNMF). Both the training process and the testing process of B-SNMF are much faster than those of binary principal component analysis (B-PCA). Besides, B-SNMF is more robust to occlusions in images. Experimental results on face images demonstrate the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed B-SNMF.

Classrooms as complex adaptive systems:a relational model

In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over time. A relational model of classrooms is proposed which focuses on the relations between different elements (physical, environmental, cognitive, social) in the classroom and on how their interaction is crucial in understanding and describing classroom action.

Impact of signal-ASE four-wave mixing on the effectiveness of digital back-propagation in 112 Gb/s PM-QPSK systems

Limitations in the performance of coherent transmission systems employing digital back-propagation due to four-wave mixing impairments are reported for the first time. A significant performance constraint is identified, originating from four-wave mixing between signals and amplified spontaneous emission noise which induces a linear increase in the standard deviation of the received field with signal power, and linear dependence on transmission distance.

Compensation of nonlinear fibre impairments in coherent systems employing spectrally efficient modulation formats

We investigate electronic mitigation of linear and non-linear fibre impairments and compare various digital signal processing techniques, including electronic dispersion compensation (EDC), single-channel back-propagation (SC-BP) and back-propagation with multiple channel processing (MC-BP) in a nine-channel 112 Gb/s PM-mQAM (m=4,16) WDM system, for reaches up to 6,320 km. We show that, for a sufficiently high local dispersion, SC-BP is sufficient to provide a significant performance enhancement when compared to EDC, and is adequate to achieve BER below FEC threshold. For these conditions we report that a sampling rate of two samples per symbol is sufficient for practical SC-BP, without significant penalties.