Sticky credit spreads, macroeconomic activity and equity market volatility

We uncover high persistence in credit spread series that can obscure the relationship between the theoretical determinants of credit risk and observed credit spreads. We use a Markovswitching model, which also captures the stability (low frequency changes) of credit ratings, to show why credit spreads may continue to respond to past levels of credit risk, even though the state of the economy has changed. A bivariate model of credit spreads and either macroeconomic activity or equity market volatility detects large and significant correlations that are consistent with theory but have not been observed in previous studies. © 2010 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inhibition of object identity in inhibition of return:implications for encoding and retrieving inhibitory processes

Inhibition of return (IOR) effects, in which participants detect a target in a cued box more slowly than one in an uncued box, suggest that behavior is aided by inhibition of recently attended irrelevant locations. To investigate the controversial question of whether inhibition can be applied to object identity in these tasks, in the present research we presented faces upright or inverted during cue and/or target sequences. IOR was greater when both cue and target faces were upright than when cue and/or target faces were inverted. Because the only difference between the conditions was the ease of facial recognition, this result indicates that inhibition was applied to object identity. Interestingly, inhibition of object identity affected IOR both whenencoding a cue face andretrieving information about a target face. Accordingly, we propose that episodic retrieval of inhibition associated with object identity may mediate behavior in cuing tasks.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation. We show that in portfolios where security specific effects have not been completely diversified, portfolio autocorrelation will not increase monotonically with increasing non-trading, as indicated in Lo and MacKinlay (1990). We show that at high levels of non-trading, portfolio autocorrelation will become a decreasing function of non-trading probability and may take negative values. We find that heterogeneity among the means, variances and betas of the component securities in a portfolio can act to increase the induced autocorrelation, particularly in portfolios containing fewer stocks. Security specific effects remain even when the number of securities in the portfolio is far in excess of that considered necessary to diversify security risk. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Pricing-to-market and the volatility of UK export prices

This empirical study examines the Pricing-To-Market (PTM) behaviour of 20 UK export sectors. Using both Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) estimation methods, we find evidence of PTM that is accompanied by strong conditional volatility and weak asymmetry effects. The PTM estimates suggest that when the currency of exporters appreciates in the current period, exporters pass-on between 31% and 94% of the Foreign Exchange (FX) rate increase to importers. However, both export price changes and producers' prices are sluggish, perhaps being driven by coordination failure and menu driven costs, amongst others. Furthermore, export prices contain strong time varying effects which impact on PTM strategy. Exporters do not typically appear to put much more weight on negative news of (say) an FX rate appreciation compared to positive news of an FX rate depreciation. Much depends on the export sector. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

The forecast performance of competing implied volatility measures:the case of individual stocks

This study examines the information content of alternative implied volatility measures for the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1996 until 2007. Along with the popular Black-Scholes and \model-free" implied volatility expectations, the recently proposed corridor implied volatil- ity (CIV) measures are explored. For all pair-wise comparisons, it is found that a CIV measure that is closely related to the model-free implied volatility, nearly always delivers the most accurate forecasts for the majority of the firms. This finding remains consistent for different forecast horizons, volatility definitions, loss functions and forecast evaluation settings.

The rise and fall of diasporic bonds in Japanese-Peruvian “Return” migration

Two decades after Japanese-Peruvians and other South Americans of Japanese descent began to migrate back to Japan, the return-migration phenomenon has ended. Induced by the Japanese government in the name of shared ethnicity, Japanese policymakers now largely regard return migration as a failed policy. It failed because return-migrants did not, in the view of policy- makers, assimilate, integrate, or “make it” in Japan as expected. Thus, once-imagined ethnic bonds ceased to exist in Japan. However, ethnic bonds sustained themselves well outside Japan. The Japanese-Peruvian community in Peru has thrived and maintained continuous ties with Japan. What explains the rise and fall of diasporic ethnic bonds? Drawing on my ethnographic research in Japanese-Peruvian communities in Peru and Japan, I found that diasporic ethnic bonds are cultivated or weakened depending upon where diasporic populations are located in relation to their ancestral homeland, and how such ties are utilized, for what, and by whom.

Long-term inhibition of return of attention

During search of the environment, the inhibition of the return (IOR) of attention to already-examined information ensures that the target will ultimately be detected. Until now, inhibition was assumed to support search of information during one processing episode. However, in some situations search may have to be completed long after it was begun. We therefore propose that inhibition can be associated with an episode encoded into memory such that later retrieval reinstates inhibitory processing and encourages examination of new information. In two experiments in which attention was drawn to face stimuli with an exogenous cue, we demonstrated for the first time the existence of long-term IOR. Interestingly, this was the case only for faces in the left visual field, perhaps because more efficient processing of faces in the right hemisphere than the left hemisphere results in richer, more retrievable memory representations.

The effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of the gilt-edged market

We model the effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of returns to individual gilts, examining both the effects of QE overall and of the specific days of asset purchases. The action of QE successfully neutralized the six fold increase in volatility that had been experienced by gilts since the start of the financial crisis. The volatility of longer term bonds reduced more quickly than the volatility of short to medium term bonds. The reversion of the volatility of shorter term bonds to pre-crisis levels was found to be more sensitive to the specific operational actions of QE, particularly where they experienced relatively greater purchase activity.

Performance enhancement of asymmetric filtered 40 Gb/s carrier suppressed return to zero-differential phase shift keying receiver in a 50 GHz grid

The authors present the impact of asymmetric filtering of strong (e.g. 35 GHz) optical filters on the performance of 42.7 Gb/s 67% (carrier suppressed return to zero)-differential phase shift keying systems. The performance is examined (in an amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise-limited regime and in the presence of chromatic dispersion) when offsetting the filter at the receiver by substantial amounts via balanced, constructive and destructive single-ended detections. It is found that with a slight offset (vestigial side band) or an offset of almost half of the modulation frequency (single-side band), there is a significant improvement in the calculated 'Q'. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market

Tests for random walk behaviour in the Italian stock market are presented, based on an investigation of the fractal properties of the log return series for the Mibtel index. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Critical values for the test statistics are generated using Monte Carlo simulations of random Gaussian innovations. Evidence is reported of multifractality, and the departure from random walk behaviour is statistically significant on standard criteria. The observed pattern is attributed primarily to fat tails in the return probability distribution, associated with volatility clustering in returns measured over various time scales. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects

stocks. We examine the effects of foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes on the excess returns of U.S. stocks, for short-horizons of 1-40 days. Our new evidence shows a tendency for the volatility of both excess returns and FX rate changes to be negatively related with FX rate and interest rate effects. Both the number of firms with significant FX rate and interest rate effects and the magnitude of their exposures increase with the length of the return horizon. Our finding seems inconsistent with the view that firms hedge effectively at short-return horizons.

Investigating the role of capacitive coupling between the operating table and the return electrode of an electrosurgery unit in the modification of the current density distribution within the patients’ body

Background: Electrosurgery units are widely employed in modern surgery. Advances in technology have enhanced the safety of these devices, nevertheless, accidental burns are still regularly reported. This study focuses on possible causes of sacral burns as complication of the use of electrosurgery. Burns are caused by local densifications of the current, but the actual pathway of current within patient's body is unknown. Numerical electromagnetic analysis can help in understanding the issue. Methods: To this aim, an accurate heterogeneous model of human body (including seventy-seven different tissues), electrosurgery electrodes, operating table and mattress was build to resemble a typical surgery condition. The patient lays supine on the mattress with the active electrode placed onto the thorax and the return electrode on his back. Common operating frequencies of electrosurgery units were considered. Finite Difference Time Domain electromagnetic analysis was carried out to compute the spatial distribution of current density within the patient's body. A differential analysis by changing the electrical properties of the operating table from a conductor to an insulator was also performed. Results: Results revealed that distributed capacitive coupling between patient body and the conductive operating table offers an alternative path to the electrosurgery current. The patient's anatomy, the positioning and the different electromagnetic properties of tissues promote a densification of the current at the head and sacral region. In particular, high values of current density were located behind the sacral bone and beneath the skin. This did not occur in the case of non-conductive operating table. Conclusion: Results of the simulation highlight the role played from capacitive couplings between the return electrode and the conductive operating table. The concentration of current density may result in an undesired rise in temperature, originating burns in body region far from the electrodes. This outcome is concordant with the type of surgery-related sacral burns reported in literature. Such burns cannot be immediately detected after surgery, but appear later and can be confused with bedsores. In addition, the dosimetric analysis suggests that reducing the capacity coupling between the return electrode and the operating table can decrease or avoid this problem. © 2013 Bifulco et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.