Reporting and managing risk:a look at current practice at Tesco, RBS, local and central government

These case studies from CIMA highlight the need to embed risk management within more easily understood behaviours, consistent with the overall organisational culture. In each case, some form of internal audit team provides either an oversight function or acts as an expert link in that feedback loop. Frontline staff, managers and specialists should be completely aligned on risk, in part just to ensure that there is a consistency of approach. They should understand instinctively that good performance includes good risk management. Tesco has continued to thrive during the recession and remains a robust and efficient group of businesses despite the emergence of potential threats around consumer spending and the supply chain. RBS, by contrast, has suffered catastrophic and very public failures of risk management despite a large in-house function and stiff regulation of risk controls. Birmingham City Council, like all local authorities, is adapting to more commercial modes of operation and is facing diverse threats and opportunities emerging as a result of social change. And DCMS, like many other public sector organisations, has to handle an incredibly complex network of delivery partners within the context of a relatively recent overhaul of central government risk management processes. Key Findings: •Risk management is no longer solely a financial discipline, nor is it simply a concern for the internal control function. •Where organisations retain a discrete risk management cadre – often specialists at monitoring and evaluating a range of risks – their success is dependent on embedding risk awareness in the wider culture of the enterprise. •Risk management is most successful when it is explicitly linked to operational performance. •Clear leadership, specific goals, excellent influencing skills and open-mindedness to potential threats and opportunities are essential for effective risk management. •Bureaucratic processes and systems can hamper good risk management – either as a result of a ‘box-ticking mentality’ or because managers and staff believe they do not need to consider risk themselves.

MEG and complex systems

MEG beamformer algorithms work by making the assumption that correlated and spatially distinct local field potentials do not develop in the human brain. Despite this assumption, images produced by such algorithms concur with those from other non-invasive and invasive estimates of brain function. In this paper we set out to develop a method that could be applied to raw MEG data to explicitly test his assumption. We show that a promax rotation of MEG channel data can be used as an approximate estimator of the number of spatially distinct correlated sources in any frequency band.

Innovation, networking and globalisation:the role of regional innovation systems in the global innovation process

In the global economy, innovation is one of the most important competitive assets for companies willing to compete in international markets. As competition moves from standardised products to customised ones, depending on each specific market needs, economies of scale are not anymore the only winning strategy. Innovation requires firms to establish processes to acquire and absorb new knowledge, leading to the recent theory of Open Innovation. Knowledge sharing and acquisition happens when firms are embedded in networks with other firms, university, institutions and many other economic actors. Several typologies of innovation and firm networks have been identified, with various geographical spans. One of the first being modelled was the Industrial Cluster (or in Italian Distretto Industriale) which was for long considered the benchmark for innovation and economic development. Other kind of networks have been modelled since the late 1970s; Regional Innovation Systems represent one of the latest and more diffuse model of innovation networks, specifically introduced to combine local networks and the global economy. This model was qualitatively exploited since its introduction, but, together with National Innovation Systems, is among the most inspiring for policy makers and is often cited by them, not always properly. The aim of this research is to setup an econometric model describing Regional Innovation Systems, becoming one the first attempts to test and enhance this theory with a quantitative approach. A dataset of 104 secondary and primary data from European regions was built in order to run a multiple linear regression, testing if Regional Innovation Systems are really correlated to regional innovation and regional innovation in cooperation with foreign partners. Furthermore, an exploratory multiple linear regression was performed to verify which variables, among those describing a Regional Innovation Systems, are the most significant for innovating, alone or with foreign partners. Furthermore, the effectiveness of present innovation policies has been tested based on the findings of the econometric model. The developed model confirmed the role of Regional Innovation Systems for creating innovation even in cooperation with international partners: this represents one of the firsts quantitative confirmation of a theory previously based on qualitative models only. Furthermore the results of this model confirmed a minor influence of National Innovation Systems: comparing the analysis of existing innovation policies, both at regional and national level, to our findings, emerged the need for potential a pivotal change in the direction currently followed by policy makers. Last, while confirming the role of the presence a learning environment in a region and the catalyst role of regional administration, this research offers a potential new perspective for the whole private sector in creating a Regional Innovation System.

Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

A survey of self-awareness and its application in computing systems

Novel computing systems are increasingly being composed of large numbers of heterogeneous components, each with potentially different goals or local perspectives, and connected in networks which change over time. Management of such systems quickly becomes infeasible for humans. As such, future computing systems should be able to achieve advanced levels of autonomous behaviour. In this context, the system's ability to be self-aware and be able to self-express becomes important. This paper surveys definitions and current understanding of self-awareness and self-expression in biology and cognitive science. Subsequently, previous efforts to apply these concepts to computing systems are described. This has enabled the development of novel working definitions for self-awareness and self-expression within the context of computing systems.

Phase noise influence in coherent optical DnPSK systems with DSP based dispersion compensation

We present a comparative study of the influence of dispersion induced phase noise for n-level PSK systems. From the analysis, we conclude that the phase noise influence for classical homodyne/heterodyne PSK systems is entirely determined by the modulation complexity (expressed in terms of constellation diagram) and the analogue demodulation format. On the other hand, the use of digital signal processing (DSP) in homodyne/intradyne systems renders a fiber length dependence originating from the generation of equalization enhanced phase noise. For future high capacity systems, high constellations must be used in order to lower the symbol rate to practically manageable speeds, and this fact puts severe requirements to the signal and local oscillator (LO) linewidths. Our results for the bit-error-rate (BER) floor caused by the phase noise influence in the case of QPSK, 16PSK and 64PSK systems outline tolerance limitations for the LO performance: 5 MHz linewidth (at 3-dB level) for 100 Gbit/s QPSK; 1 MHz for 400 Gbit/s QPSK; 0.1 MHz for 400 Gbit/s 16PSK and 1 Tbit/s 64PSK systems. This defines design constrains for the phase noise impact in distributed-feed-back (DFB) or distributed-Bragg-reflector (DBR) semiconductor lasers, that would allow moving the system capacity from 100 Gbit/s system capacity to 400 Gbit/s in 3 years (1 Tbit/s in 5 years). It is imperative at the same time to increase the analogue to digital conversion (ADC) speed such that the single quadrature symbol rate goes from today's 25 GS/s to 100 GS/s (using two samples per symbol). © 2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston.

Coverage versus supply cost in facility location:physics of frustrated spin systems

A comprehensive coverage is crucial for communication, supply, and transportation networks, yet it is limited by the requirement of extensive infrastructure and heavy energy consumption. Here, we draw an analogy between spins in antiferromagnet and outlets in supply networks, and apply techniques from the studies of disordered systems to elucidate the effects of balancing the coverage and supply costs on the network behavior. A readily applicable, coverage optimization algorithm is derived. Simulation results show that magnetized and antiferromagnetic domains emerge and coexist to balance the need for coverage and energy saving. The scaling of parameters with system size agrees with the continuum approximation in two dimensions and the tree approximation in random graphs. Due to frustration caused by the competition between coverage and supply cost, a transition between easy and hard computation regimes is observed. We further suggest a local expansion approach to greatly simplify the message updates which shed light on simplifications in other problems. © 2014 American Physical Society.

Duality in multi-channel Luttinger Liquid with local scatterer

We have devised a general scheme that reveals multiple duality relations valid for all multi-channel Luttinger Liquids. The relations are universal and should be used for establishing phase diagrams and searching for new non-trivial phases in low-dimensional strongly correlated systems. The technique developed provides universal correspondence between scaling dimensions of local perturbations in different phases. These multiple relations between scaling dimensions lead to a connection between different inter-phase boundaries on the phase diagram. The dualities, in particular, constrain phase diagram and allow predictions of emergence and observation of new phases without explicit model-dependent calculations. As an example, we demonstrate the impossibility of non-trivial phase existence for fermions coupled to phonons in one dimension. © 2013 EPLA.

Comments on multiple oscillatory solutions in systems with time-delay feedback

A complex Ginzburg-Landau equation subjected to local and global time-delay feedback terms is considered. In particular, multiple oscillatory solutions and their properties are studied. We present novel results regarding the disappearance of limit cycle solutions, derive analytical criteria for frequency degeneration, amplitude degeneration, frequency extrema. Furthermore, we discuss the influence of the phase shift parameter and show analytically that the stabilization of the steady state and the decay of all oscillations (amplitude death) cannot happen for global feedback only. Finally, we explain the onset of traveling wave patterns close to the regime of amplitude death.

Scalable harmonization of complex networks with local controllers

Computational and communication complexities call for distributed, robust, and adaptive control. This paper proposes a promising way of bottom-up design of distributed control in which simple controllers are responsible for individual nodes. The overall behavior of the network can be achieved by interconnecting such controlled loops in cascade control for example and by enabling the individual nodes to share information about data with their neighbors without aiming at unattainable global solution. The problem is addressed by employing a fully probabilistic design, which can cope with inherent uncertainties, that can be implemented adaptively and which provide a systematic rich way to information sharing. This paper elaborates the overall solution, applies it to linear-Gaussian case, and provides simulation results.

Upgrading legacy long-haul WDM systems through unbalancing the proportion of 1s and 0s in the transmitted data

We present experimental results for wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) transmission performance using unbalanced proportions of 1s and 0s in pseudo-random bit sequence (PRBS) data. This investigation simulates the effect of local, in time, data unbalancing which occurs in some coding systems such as forward error correction when extra bits are added to the WDM data stream. We show that such local unbalancing, which would practically give a time-dependent error-rate, can be employed to improve the legacy long-haul WDM system performance if the system is allowed to operate in the nonlinear power region. We use a recirculating loop to simulate a long-haul fibre system.

Towards probabilistic synchronization of local controllers

The traditional use of global and centralised control methods, fails for large, complex, noisy and highly connected systems, which typify many real world industrial and commercial systems. This paper provides an efficient bottom up design of distributed control in which many simple components communicate and cooperate to achieve a joint system goal. Each component acts individually so as to maximise personal utility whilst obtaining probabilistic information on the global system merely through local message-passing. This leads to an implied scalable and collective control strategy for complex dynamical systems, without the problems of global centralised control. Robustness is addressed by employing a fully probabilistic design, which can cope with inherent uncertainties, can be implemented adaptively and opens a systematic rich way to information sharing. This paper opens the foreseen direction and inspects the proposed design on a linearised version of coupled map lattice with spatiotemporal chaos. A version close to linear quadratic design gives an initial insight into possible behaviours of such networks.