An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

Strategic supplier performance evaluation:a case-based action research of a UK manufacturing organisation

The main aim of this research is to demonstrate strategic supplier performance evaluation of a UK-based manufacturing organisation using an integrated analytical framework. Developing long term relationship with strategic suppliers is common in today's industry. However, monitoring suppliers' performance all through the contractual period is important in order to ensure overall supply chain performance. Therefore, client organisations need to measure suppliers' performance dynamically and inform them on improvement measures. Although there are many studies introducing innovative supplier performance evaluation frameworks and empirical researches on identifying criteria for supplier evaluation, little has been reported on detailed application of strategic supplier performance evaluation and its implication on overall performance of organisation. Additionally, majority of the prior studies emphasise on lagging factors (quality, delivery schedule and value/cost) for supplier selection and evaluation. This research proposes both leading (organisational practices, risk management, environmental and social practices) and lagging factors for supplier evaluation and demonstrates a systematic method for identifying those factors with the involvement of relevant stakeholders and process mapping. The contribution of this article is a real-life case-based action research utilising an integrated analytical model that combines quality function deployment and the analytic hierarchy process method for suppliers' performance evaluation. The effectiveness of the method has been demonstrated through number of validations (e.g. focus group, business results, and statistical analysis). Additionally, the study reveals that enhanced supplier performance results positive impact on operational and business performance of client organisation.