Living with uncertainty in the age of runtime models

Uncertainty can be defined as the difference between information that is represented in an executing system and the information that is both measurable and available about the system at a certain point in its life-time. A software system can be exposed to multiple sources of uncertainty produced by, for example, ambiguous requirements and unpredictable execution environments. A runtime model is a dynamic knowledge base that abstracts useful information about the system, its operational context and the extent to which the system meets its stakeholders' needs. A software system can successfully operate in multiple dynamic contexts by using runtime models that augment information available at design-time with information monitored at runtime. This chapter explores the role of runtime models as a means to cope with uncertainty. To this end, we introduce a well-suited terminology about models, runtime models and uncertainty and present a state-of-the-art summary on model-based techniques for addressing uncertainty both at development- and runtime. Using a case study about robot systems we discuss how current techniques and the MAPE-K loop can be used together to tackle uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose possible extensions of the MAPE-K loop architecture with runtime models to further handle uncertainty at runtime. The chapter concludes by identifying key challenges, and enabling technologies for using runtime models to address uncertainty, and also identifies closely related research communities that can foster ideas for resolving the challenges raised. © 2014 Springer International Publishing.

Performance measurement with fuzzy data envelopment analysis

The intensity of global competition and ever-increasing economic uncertainties has led organizations to search for more efficient and effective ways to manage their business operations. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been widely used as a conceptually simple yet powerful tool for evaluating organizational productivity and performance. Fuzzy DEA (FDEA) is a promising extension of the conventional DEA proposed for dealing with imprecise and ambiguous data in performance measurement problems. This book is the first volume in the literature to present the state-of-the-art developments and applications of FDEA. It is designed for students, educators, researchers, consultants and practicing managers in business, industry, and government with a basic understanding of the DEA and fuzzy logic concepts.

Religious compliance in Islamic financial institutions

The central goal of this research is to explore the approach of the Islamic banking industry in defining and implementing religious compliance at regulatory, institutional, and individual level within the Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF) industry. It also examines the discrepancies, ambiguities and paradoxes that are exhibited in the individual and institutional behaviour in relation to the infusion and enactment of religious exigencies into compliance processes in IBF. Through the combined lenses of institutional work and a sensemaking perspective, this research portrays the practice of infusion of Islamic law in Islamic banks as being ambiguous and drifting down to the institutional and actor levels. In instances of both well-codified and non-codified regulatory frameworks for Shariah compliance, institutional rules ambiguity, rules interpretation and enactment ambiguities were found to be prevalent. The individual IBF professionals performed retrospective and prospective actions to adjust the role and rules boundaries both in the case of a Muslim and a non-Muslim country. The sensitizing concept of religious compliance is the primary theoretical contribution of this research and provides a tool to understand the nature of what constitutes Shariah compliance and the dynamics of its implementation. It helps to explain the empirical consequences of the lack of a clear definition of Shariah compliance in the regulatory frameworks and standards available for the industry. It also addresses the calls to have a clear reference on what constitute Shariah compliance in IBF as proposed in previous studies (Hayat, Butter, & Kock, 2013; Maurer, 2003, 2012; Pitluck, 2012). The methodological and theoretical perspective of this research are unique in the use of multi-level analysis and approaches that blend micro and macro perspectives of the research field, to illuminate and provide a more complete picture of religious compliance infusion and enactment in IBF.

The state of the art in fuzzy data envelopment analysis

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a methodology for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) that use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. Crisp input and output data are fundamentally indispensable in conventional DEA. However, the observed values of the input and output data in real-world problems are sometimes imprecise or vague. Many researchers have proposed various fuzzy methods for dealing with the imprecise and ambiguous data in DEA. This chapter provides a taxonomy and review of the fuzzy DEA (FDEA) methods. We present a classification scheme with six categories, namely, the tolerance approach, the α-level based approach, the fuzzy ranking approach, the possibility approach, the fuzzy arithmetic, and the fuzzy random/type-2 fuzzy set. We discuss each classification scheme and group the FDEA papers published in the literature over the past 30 years. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Determinants of civil society influence:the case of international development and humanitarian NGOs in the Czech Republic and Hungary

Accession to the EU has had ambiguous effects on civil society organizations (CSOs) in the East Central European countries. A general observation is that accession has not led to the systematic empowerment of CSOs in terms of growing influence on national policy making. This article investigates the determinants of successful CSO advocacy by looking at international development and humanitarian NGOs (NGDOs) in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Reforms in the past decade in the Czech Republic have created an international development policy largely in line with NGDO interests, while Hungary’s ministry of foreign affairs seems to have been unresponsive to reform demands from civil society. The article argues that there is clear evidence of NGDO influence in the Czech Republic on international development policy, which is because of the fact that Czech NGDOs have been able solve problems of collective actions, while the Hungarian NGDO sector remains fragmented. They also have relatively stronger capacities, can rely on greater public support and can thus present more legitimate demands towards their government.

Carbon efficiency evaluation:an analytical framework using fuzzy DEA

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a powerful analytical technique for measuring the relative efficiency of alternatives based on their inputs and outputs. The alternatives can be in the form of countries who attempt to enhance their productivity and environmental efficiencies concurrently. However, when desirable outputs such as productivity increases, undesirable outputs increase as well (e.g. carbon emissions), thus making the performance evaluation questionable. In addition, traditional environmental efficiency has been typically measured by crisp input and output (desirable and undesirable). However, the input and output data, such as CO2 emissions, in real-world evaluation problems are often imprecise or ambiguous. This paper proposes a DEA-based framework where the input and output data are characterized by symmetrical and asymmetrical fuzzy numbers. The proposed method allows the environmental evaluation to be assessed at different levels of certainty. The validity of the proposed model has been tested and its usefulness is illustrated using two numerical examples. An application of energy efficiency among 23 European Union (EU) member countries is further presented to show the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach under asymmetric fuzzy numbers.

On the periphery of Europe:an investigation of the construction of Turkish-Cypriot adolescent identities

This research study investigates the identities of a group of adolescent Turkish Cypriot (TC) students in their final year of secondary education in northern Cyprus, which it is argued, lies on the periphery of Europe. The main aim is to explore the linguistic construction of TC youth identities within school contexts but primarily the classroom in a political context in which the uniquely ambiguous status of Turkish Cypriots within the European Union (EU) continues, and where Turkish Cypriots are considered to be Europeans as individuals but not as a separate political entity. A secondary focus is upon the students’ investment in learning the English language. Identity is defined as a lifelong process of 'the social positioning of self and the other' (Bucholtz and Hall, 2005:586) which is endlessly re-created (Tabouret-Keller, 1997) and the distinction between the terms 'identity' and 'identities' is discussed. The study explores the social construction of TC students' identities using an ethnomethodological case study. By using Conversation Analysis of selected extracts from the data collected through observations of classroom interactions, focus group discussions and interviews, the thesis shows that TC students perceive and enact 'in-betweener identities' in terms of their ethnicity, societal values, age, religion, languages and Europeanness. Being on the periphery of the EU, it is argued that the Turkish Cypriots of northern Cyprus are the ‘peripheral members of the EU, remaining present yet absent. They are personally EU citizens but not as a society and cannot be represented within EU institutions. But will they ever acquire full membership, as any peripheral member would aspire to have or will they remain in between occident and orient? The possible answers to this question and the resulting ideological associations will shape how and to what extent these TC students perceive and enact their identities.

The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of using social software in higher and further education teaching and learning

Social software is increasingly being used in higher and further education to support teaching and learning processes. These applications provide students with social and cognitive stimulation and also add to the interaction between students and educators. However, in addition to the benefits the introduction of social software into a course environment can also have adverse implications on students, educators and the education institution as a whole, a phenomenon which has received much less attention in the literature. In this study we explore the various implications of introducing social software into a course environment in order to identify the associated benefits, but also the potential drawbacks. We draw on data from 20 social software initiatives in UK based higher and further education institutions to identify the diverse experiences and concerns of students and educators. The findings are presented in form of a SWOT analysis, which allows us to better understand the otherwise ambiguous implications of social software in terms of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. From the analysis we have derived concrete recommendations for the use of social software as a teaching and learning tool.

Discovering knowledge structures in mind maps of mental health risks

This thesis addressed the problem of risk analysis in mental healthcare, with respect to the GRiST project at Aston University. That project provides a risk-screening tool based on the knowledge of 46 experts, captured as mind maps that describe relationships between risks and patterns of behavioural cues. Mind mapping, though, fails to impose control over content, and is not considered to formally represent knowledge. In contrast, this thesis treated GRiSTs mind maps as a rich knowledge base in need of refinement; that process drew on existing techniques for designing databases and knowledge bases. Identifying well-defined mind map concepts, though, was hindered by spelling mistakes, and by ambiguity and lack of coverage in the tools used for researching words. A novel use of the Edit Distance overcame those problems, by assessing similarities between mind map texts, and between spelling mistakes and suggested corrections. That algorithm further identified stems, the shortest text string found in related word-forms. As opposed to existing approaches’ reliance on built-in linguistic knowledge, this thesis devised a novel, more flexible text-based technique. An additional tool, Correspondence Analysis, found patterns in word usage that allowed machines to determine likely intended meanings for ambiguous words. Correspondence Analysis further produced clusters of related concepts, which in turn drove the automatic generation of novel mind maps. Such maps underpinned adjuncts to the mind mapping software used by GRiST; one such new facility generated novel mind maps, to reflect the collected expert knowledge on any specified concept. Mind maps from GRiST are stored as XML, which suggested storing them in an XML database. In fact, the entire approach here is ”XML-centric”, in that all stages rely on XML as far as possible. A XML-based query language allows user to retrieve information from the mind map knowledge base. The approach, it was concluded, will prove valuable to mind mapping in general, and to detecting patterns in any type of digital information.

Prospect theory and the effects of bankruptcy laws on entrepreneurial aspirations

We apply prospect theory to explain how personal and corporate bankruptcy laws affect risk perceptions of entrepreneurs at time of entry and therefore their growth ambitions. Previous theories have reached ambiguous conclusions as to whether countries with more debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws (i.e. laws that are more forgiving towards debtors in bankruptcy proceedings) are likely to have more entrepreneurs, or whether, creditorfriendly regimes have positive effects on new ventures via enhanced incentives for the supply of credit to entrepreneurs. Responding to this ambiguity, we apply prospect theory to propose that entrepreneurs do not attach the same significance to different elements of bankruptcy codes—and to explain which aspects of debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws matter more to entrepreneurs. Based on this, we derive and confirm hypotheses about the impact of aspects of bankruptcy codes on entrepreneurial activity using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor combined with data on both personal and corporate bankruptcyregulations for 15 developed OECD countries. We use multilevel random coefficient logistic regressions to take account of the hierarchical nature of the data (country and individual levels). Because entrepreneurs and creditors are sensitive to different elements of the codes, there is scope for optimisation of the legal design of bankruptcy law to achieve both an adequate supply of credit and to encourage high-ambition entrepreneurship.