An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

A modified semi-oriented radial measure for target setting with negative data

Over the last few years Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been gaining increasing popularity as a tool for measuring efficiency and productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs). Conventional DEA models assume non-negative inputs and outputs. However, in many real applications, some inputs and/or outputs can take negative values. Recently, Emrouznejad et al. [6] introduced a Semi-Oriented Radial Measure (SORM) for modelling DEA with negative data. This paper points out some issues in target setting with SORM models and introduces a modified SORM approach. An empirical study in bank sector demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stability of multi-agent systems

This work attempts to shed light to the fundamental concepts behind the stability of Multi-Agent Systems. We view the system as a discrete time Markov chain with a potentially unknown transitional probability distribution. The system will be considered to be stable when its state has converged to an equilibrium distribution. Faced with the non-trivial task of establishing the convergence to such a distribution, we propose a hypothesis testing approach according to which we test whether the convergence of a particular system metric has occurred. We describe some artificial multi-agent ecosystems that were developed and we present results based on these systems which confirm that this approach qualitatively agrees with our intuition.

A novel adaptive weight selection algorithm for multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning

To solve multi-objective problems, multiple reward signals are often scalarized into a single value and further processed using established single-objective problem solving techniques. While the field of multi-objective optimization has made many advances in applying scalarization techniques to obtain good solution trade-offs, the utility of applying these techniques in the multi-objective multi-agent learning domain has not yet been thoroughly investigated. Agents learn the value of their decisions by linearly scalarizing their reward signals at the local level, while acceptable system wide behaviour results. However, the non-linear relationship between weighting parameters of the scalarization function and the learned policy makes the discovery of system wide trade-offs time consuming. Our first contribution is a thorough analysis of well known scalarization schemes within the multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning setup. The analysed approaches intelligently explore the weight-space in order to find a wider range of system trade-offs. In our second contribution, we propose a novel adaptive weight algorithm which interacts with the underlying local multi-objective solvers and allows for a better coverage of the Pareto front. Our third contribution is the experimental validation of our approach by learning bi-objective policies in self-organising smart camera networks. We note that our algorithm (i) explores the objective space faster on many problem instances, (ii) obtained solutions that exhibit a larger hypervolume, while (iii) acquiring a greater spread in the objective space.

A stage-oriented model (SOM) for e-commerce adoption:a study of Saudi Arabian organisations

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to construct a new e-commerce innovation and adoption model that takes into account various stages of e-commerce adoption (interactive, non-interactive and stabilised) and covers technological, organisational and environmental factors. This was tested using data collected from manufacturing and service companies in Saudi Arabia (SA) to reveal inhibitors and catalysts for e-commerce adoption. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses new data from surveys from 202 companies and then uses exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modelling for analyses. Findings - This study shows that the new stage-oriented model (SOM) is valid and can reveal specific detailed nuances of e-commerce adoption within a particular setting. Surprising results show that SA is not so very different to developed western countries in respect to e-commerce adoption. However there are some important differences which are discussed in detail. Research limitations/implications - A new SOM for e-commerce adoption is provided which may be used by other IS adoption researchers. Practical implications - Managers responsible for the adoption of e-commerce in SA, the Middle East and beyond can learn from these findings to speed up adoption rates and make e-commerce more effective. Social implications - This work may help spread e-commerce use throughout SA, the Middle East and to other developing nations. Originality/value - The results add to the extremely limited number of empirical studies that has been conducted to investigate e-commerce adoption in the context of Arabic countries.

An investigation of Albanian EFL teachers' decision-making in their use of CLT-oriented textbooks

Against a backdrop of ongoing educational reforms that seek to introduce Communicative Language Teaching (CLT) in Albanian primary and secondary state schools, Albanian teachers, among others, are officially required to use communication-based textbooks in their classes. Authorities in a growing number of countries that are seeking to improve and westernise their educational systems are also using communication-based textbooks as agents of change. Behind these actions, there is the commonly held belief that textbooks can be used to support teacher learning as they provide a visible framework teachers can follow. Communication-based textbooks are used in thousands of EFL classrooms around the world to help teachers to “fully understand and routinize change” (Hutchinson and Torres, 1994:323). However, empirical research on the role materials play in the classroom, and in particular the role of textbook as an agent of change, is still very little, and what does exist is rather inconclusive. This study aims to fulfill this gap. It is predominately a qualitative investigation into how and why four Albanian EFL teachers use Western teaching resources in their classes. Aiming at investigating the decision-making processes that teachers go through in their teaching, and specifically at investigating the relationship between Western-published textbooks, teachers’ decision making, and teachers’ classroom delivery, the current study contributes to an extensive discussion on the development of communicative L2 teaching concepts and methods, teacher decision making, as well as a growing discussion on how best to make institutional reforms effective, particularly in East-European ex-communist countries and in other developing countries. Findings from this research indicate that, prompted by the content of Western-published textbooks, the four research participants, who had received little formal training in CLT teaching, accommodated some communicative teaching behaviours into their teaching. The use of communicative textbooks, however, does not seem to account for radical, methodological changes in teachers’ practices. Teacher cognitions based on teachers’ previous learning experience are likely to act as a lens through which teachers judge classroom realities. As such, they shape, to a great degree, the decisions teachers make regarding the use of Western-published textbooks in their classes.

How do practitioners understand? Practitioner perceptions of an object-oriented programming.

In the computer science community, there is considerable debate about the appropriate sequence for introducing object-oriented concepts to novice programmers. Research into novice programming has struggled to identify the critical aspects that would provide a consistently successful approach to teaching introductory object-oriented programming. Starting from the premise that the conceptions of a task determine the type of output from the task, assisting novice programmers to become aware of what the required output should be, may lay a foundation for improving learning. This study adopted a phenomenographic approach. Thirty one practitioners were interviewed about the ways in which they experience object-oriented programming and categories of description and critical aspects were identified. These critical aspects were then used to examine the spaces of learning provided in twenty introductory textbooks. The study uncovered critical aspects that related to the way that practitioners expressed their understanding of an object-oriented program and the influences on their approach to designing programs. The study of the textbooks revealed a large variability in the cover of these critical aspects.

Internal market orientation and market/oriented behaviours

Purpose – The purpose of this empirical paper is to investigate internal marketing from a behavioural perspective. The impact of internal marketing behaviours, operationalised as an internal market orientation (IMO), on employees' marketing and other in/role behaviours (IRB) were examined. Design/methodology/approach – Survey data measuring IMO, market orientation and a range of constructs relevant to the nomological network in which they are embedded were collected from the UK retail managers. These were tested to establish their psychometric properties and the conceptual model was analysed using structural equations modelling, employing a partial least squares methodology. Findings – IMO has positive consequences for employees' market/oriented and other IRB. These, in turn, influence marketing success. Research limitations/implications – The paper provides empirical support for the long/held assumption that internal and external marketing are related and that organisations should balance their external focus with some attention to employees. Future research could measure the attitudes and behaviours of managers, employees and customers directly and explore the relationships between them. Practical implications – Firm must ensure that they do not put the needs of their employees second to those of managers and shareholders; managers must develop their listening skills and organisations must become more responsive to the needs of their employees. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the scarce body of empirical support for the role of internal marketing in services organisations. For researchers, this paper legitimises the study of internal marketing as a route to external market success; for managers, the study provides quantifiable evidence that focusing on employees' wants and needs impacts their behaviours towards the market. © 2010, Emerald Group Publishing Limited