Breaking down the non-normality of daily stock returns

This paper investigates whether the non-normality typically observed in daily stock-market returns could arise because of the joint existence of breaks and GARCH effects. It proposes a data-driven procedure to credibly identify the number and timing of breaks and applies it on the benchmark stock-market indices of 27 OECD countries. The findings suggest that a substantial element of the observed deviations from normality might indeed be due to the co-existence of breaks and GARCH effects. However, the presence of structural changes is found to be the primary reason for the non-normality and not the GARCH effects. Also, there is still some remaining excess kurtosis that is unlikely to be linked to the specification of the conditional volatility or the presence of breaks. Finally, an interesting sideline result implies that GARCH models have limited capacity in forecasting stock-market volatility.

Impact of derivatives trading on emerging stock markets:some evidence from India

It is generally accepted that the introduction of financial derivatives that facilitate hedging is an important step in the development of stock markets. However, financial derivatives can potentially increase volatility in the underlying cash market, which might be detrimental to the development of the stock market itself. Using data from India, we examine one possible route through which derivatives trading can increase cash market volatility: expiration day effect. Our results indicate that expiration of equity derivatives contracts does not have any effect on the intra-day volatility of the market index, and it reduces the volatility of inter-day returns to the index.

Econometrics of yield spreads in the money market:a note

The literature on bond markets and interest rates has focused largely on the term structure of interest rates, specifically, on the so-called expectations hypothesis. At the same time, little is known about the nature of the spread of the interest rates in the money market beyond the fact that such spreads are generally unstable. However, with the evolution of complex financial instruments, it has become imperative to identify the time series process that can help one accurately forecast such spreads into the future. This article explores the nature of the time series process underlying the spread between three-month and one-year US rates, and concludes that the movements in this spread over time is best captured by a GARCH(1,1) process. It also suggests the use of a relatively long term measure of interest rate volatility as an explanatory variable. This exercise has gained added importance in view of the revelation that GARCH based estimates of option prices consistently outperform the corresponding estimates based on the stylized Black-Scholes algorithm.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing (ROSS) framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries

Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.

The measurement and decomposition of economy-wide productivity growth:Assessing the accuracy and selecting between different approaches

Productivity at the macro level is a complex concept but also arguably the most appropriate measure of economic welfare. Currently, there is limited research available on the various approaches that can be used to measure it and especially on the relative accuracy of said approaches. This thesis has two main objectives: firstly, to detail some of the most common productivity measurement approaches and assess their accuracy under a number of conditions and secondly, to present an up-to-date application of productivity measurement and provide some guidance on selecting between sometimes conflicting productivity estimates. With regards to the first objective, the thesis provides a discussion on the issues specific to macro-level productivity measurement and on the strengths and weaknesses of the three main types of approaches available, namely index-number approaches (represented by Growth Accounting), non-parametric distance functions (DEA-based Malmquist indices) and parametric production functions (COLS- and SFA-based Malmquist indices). The accuracy of these approaches is assessed through simulation analysis, which provided some interesting findings. Probably the most important were that deterministic approaches are quite accurate even when the data is moderately noisy, that no approaches were accurate when noise was more extensive, that functional form misspecification has a severe negative effect in the accuracy of the parametric approaches and finally that increased volatility in inputs and prices from one period to the next adversely affects all approaches examined. The application was based on the EU KLEMS (2008) dataset and revealed that the different approaches do in fact result in different productivity change estimates, at least for some of the countries assessed. To assist researchers in selecting between conflicting estimates, a new, three step selection framework is proposed, based on findings of simulation analyses and established diagnostics/indicators. An application of this framework is also provided, based on the EU KLEMS dataset.

The deoxidation of steel with simple and complex deoxidisers

The deoxidation of steel with complex deoxidisers was studied at 1550°C and compared with silicon, aluminium and silicon/aluminium alloys as standards. The deoxidation alloy systems, Ca/Si/Al, Mg/Si/Al and Mn/Si/Al, were chosen for the low liquidus temperatures of many of their oxide mixtures and the potential deoxidising power of their constituent elements. Product separation rates and compositional relationships following deoxidation were examined. Silicon/aluminium alloy deoxidation resulted in the product compositions and residual oxygen contents expected from equilibrium and stoichiometric considerations, but with the Ca/Si/Al and Mg/Si/Al alloys the volatility of calcium and magnesium prevented them participating in the final solute equilibrium, despite their reported solubility in liquid iron. Electron-probe microanalysis of the products showed various concentrations of lime and magnesia, possibly resulting from reaction between the metal vapours and dissolved oxygen.The consequent reduction of silica activity in the products due to the presence of CaO and hgO produced an indirect effect of calcium and magnesium on the residual oxygen content. Product separation rates, indicated by vacuum fusion analyses, were not significantly influenced by calcium and magnesium but the rapid separation of products having a high Al2O3Si02 ratio was confirmed. Manganese participated in deoxidation, when present either as an alloying element in the steel or as a deoxidation alloy constituent. The compositions of initial oxide products were related to deoxidation alloy compositions. Separated products which were not alumina saturated, dissolved crucible material to achieve saturation. The melt equilibrated with this slag and crucible by diffusion to determine the residual oxygen content. MnO and SiO2 activities were calculated, and the approximate values of MnO deduced for the compositions obtained. Separation rates were greater for products of high interfacial tension. The rates calculated from a model based on Stoke's Law, showed qualitative agreement with experimental data when corrected for coalescence effects.

When do incentives work in channels of distribution?

The incentive dilemma refers to a situation in which incentives are offered but do not work as intended. The authors suggest that, in an interorganizational context, whether a principal-provided incentive works is a function of how it is evaluated by an agent: for its contribution to the agent's bottom line (instrumental evaluation) and for the extent it is strategically aligned with the agent's direction (congruence evaluation). To further understand when incentives work, the influence of two key contextual variables-industry volatility and dependence-are examined. A field study featuring 57 semi-structured depth interviews and 386 responses from twin surveys in the information technology and brewing industries provide data for hypothesis testing. When and whether incentives work is demonstrated by certain conditions under which the agent's evaluation of an incentive has positive or negative effects on its compliance and active representation. Further, some outcomes are reversed in the high volatility condition. © 2013 Academy of Marketing Science.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

When an intercultural business negotiation fails:comparing the emotions and behavioural tendencies of individualistic and collectivistic negotiators

This study explores the linkages between culture, emotions and behavioural tendencies in unsuccessful intercultural business negotiations. A set of novel research hypotheses are developed. They are tested using a negotiation scenario analysis involving 106 Finnish and 114 Indian study participants. Three key findings emerge from the statistical tests conducted. First, new empirical evidence suggesting that qualitatively different emotions (dejection vs. agitation) are experienced after a failed intercultural business negotiation by individualists and collectivists is provided. Second, the existence of the relationship between perspective-taking ability and emotional volatility in the context of failed intercultural business negotiation involving individualists and collectivists is revealed. Third, partial support is found for the idea that different types of negative emotions can lead to the same behavioural tendency (approach) among individualists and collectivists when intercultural business negotiation fails. The paper concludes by outlining a set of theoretical and managerial implications and suggestions for further research.

Monetary policy preferences of the EMU and the UK

We estimate the central bank policy preferences for the European Monetary Union and for the UK. In doing so, we extend the theoretical framework suggested by Cecchetti etal. (TheManchesterSchool, Vol. 70 (2002), pp. 596-618), by assuming that policy preferences change across different regimes. Our empirical results suggest that the weight that policy makers put on inflation is typically profound. Furthermore, it appears that volatility shifts of the economic disturbances are the main factor, which generates variation in policy preferences.

Message passing for distributed optimisation of power allocation with renewable resources

The increase in renewable energy generators introduced into the electricity grid is putting pressure on its stability and management as predictions of renewable energy sources cannot be accurate or fully controlled. This, with the additional pressure of fluctuations in demand, presents a problem more complex than the current methods of controlling electricity distribution were designed for. A global approximate and distributed optimisation method for power allocation that accommodates uncertainties and volatility is suggested and analysed. It is based on a probabilistic method known as message passing [1], which has deep links to statistical physics methodology. This principled method of optimisation is based on local calculations and inherently accommodates uncertainties; it is of modest computational complexity and provides good approximate solutions.We consider uncertainty and fluctuations drawn from a Gaussian distribution and incorporate them into the message-passing algorithm. We see the effect that increasing uncertainty has on the transmission cost and how the placement of volatile nodes within a grid, such as renewable generators or consumers, effects it.

A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.