Forecasting exchange rates with linear and nonlinear models

In this paper the exchange rate forecasting performance of neural network models are evaluated against random walk and a range of time series models. There are no guidelines available that can be used to choose the parameters of neural network models and therefore the parameters are chosen according to what the researcher considers to be the best. Such an approach, however, implies that the risk of making bad decisions is extremely high which could explain why in many studies neural network models do not consistently perform better than their time series counterparts. In this paper through extensive experimentation the level of subjectivity in building neural network models is considerably reduced and therefore giving them a better chance of performing well. Our results show that in general neural network models perform better than traditionally used time series models in forecasting exchange rates.

Statnote 8: statistical power and sample size

Statistical software is now commonly available to calculate Power (P') and sample size (N) for most experimental designs. In many circumstances, however, sample size is constrained by lack of time, cost, and in research involving human subjects, the problems of recruiting suitable individuals. In addition, the calculation of N is often based on erroneous assumptions about variability and therefore such estimates are often inaccurate. At best, we would suggest that such calculations provide only a very rough guide of how to proceed in an experiment. Nevertheless, calculation of P' is very useful especially in experiments that have failed to detect a difference which the experimenter thought was present. We would recommend that P' should always be calculated in these circumstances to determine whether the experiment was actually too small to test null hypotheses adequately.

An exploratory study of management accounting and control systems in a developing country

This thesis reports on the results of case studies in four commercial banks in Nigeria. The study focuses how management accounting and control systems (MCS) operate in the four banks. The study is motivated by the dearth of literature on management accounting practices in the developing world in general and in Nigeria in specific. The case study approach adopted in conducting the research was useful in exploring the dynamics of the MCS in the organisations. Data was gathered from two sources. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with managers at the head office, regional office and branches of each bank. The participants were selected from different backgrounds and managerial levels to provide broader understanding of the operations of the MCS. Second, various internal and external documents were reviewed to provide supporting evidence for the interview results. New institutional sociology (NIS) provided the theoretical framework to understand the results. NIS provided explanations for how the MCS in the four banks were shaped by diverse external and internal factors. The key factors identified as shaping the operations of the MCS were the need to comply with the regulatory environment (coercive isomorphism), the need to maintain social and cultural support (normative isomorphism) and the need to imitate successful organisations in order to appear legitimate (mimetic isomorphism). The study also examines the interplay between the institutional forces, market forces and infra-organisational power relations. This analysis is necessary to overcome the criticism of NIS that it downplays the role of market forces, agency and intra-organisational relations. The findings of the study have implications for understanding the operations of MCS in the developing world.

Strategy and control systems:a framework for analysis

This research explores the links between the strategies adopted by companies and the mechanisms used to control the organisation. This is not seen as a one way process with the control system following from the strategy but rather as an interactive process between the control systems, the environment and the business strategy. The main proposition of the research, derived from a review of the relevant literature, is that the dimensions of Business Pro-Activity and Environmental Change provide a plausible explanation of the reasons why companies need to adopt different strategies in order to be successful in different markets. A model is proposed which links these dimensions with the business strategy, organisational structure, strategic planning system and management control systems. The model is used as a framework for analysing four companies in order to further our understanding of these interactions and the mechanisms which act to both promote and resist change. Whilst it is not suggested that the model in its present form is a perfect instrument it has, during the course of this research, proved to be an appropriate framework for analysing the various mechanisms used by four companies to formulate and implement their strategies. The research reveals that these should not be viewed independently but as a balanced system.

The preparation of carbon fibres: a study of the physics and chemistry of the preparation of carbon fibres from acrylic precursors

High strength, high modulus carbon fibres are becoming increasingly important as high performance engineering materials. This thesis describes how they may be prepared by heat treatment from filaments spun from polyacrylonitrile and its copolymers. The chemistry of the first stages of heat treatment is very important in controlling the mechanical properties of the carbonised product. A cyclisation reaction has been found to be responsible for the relatively high thermal stability of pyrolysed polyacrylonitrile, but without oxidation the fibres degrade and fuse. An initial oxidation stage is, therefore, essential to the preparation of fibre of high orientation. The cyclised product of pyrolysis is probably a poly 1,4 dihydropiridine and oxidation converts this to aromatic structures, and cyclised structures containing carbonyl and other oxygenated groups. Oxidation is found to assist the carbon fibre preparation process, by producing a product which condenses at an earlier stage of heat treatment, before fusion can occur. Carbon fibre strength and modulus are dependent upon producing a highly oriented crystal structure. While oxidation of the polymer stabilises the fibre so as to prevent disorientation, further large increases in orientation, with a commensurate improvement in strength and modulus, can be obtained by stretching at temperatures above 1,700 °C. This process is analogous to the way fibre orientation is increased by the stretching of the precursor. A lamellar graphite structure can be created in high temperature fibre, by carefully controlling the degree of oxidation. This type of graphite can produce very high values of Young's modulus. More often, however, graphite fibre has a fibrillar fine structure, which is explicable in terms of continuous graphite ribbons. A ribbon model is the most satisfactory representation of the structure of carbon fibre, as it explains the mechanism of the development of long range order and the variation of Young's modulus with crystalline preferred orientation.

Modulation of certain 5-HT-related behaviours by serotonergic and noradrenergic systems

The modulation of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)-related head-twitchbehaviour by antimigraine drugs and migraine triggers was examined inmice. The antimigraine drugs examined produced either inhibition or noeffect on 5-HT-related head-twitching. On the basis of these resultsit is suggested that 5-HT-related head-twitching is unlikely to beuseful in the preclinical screening and discovery of systemically-activeantimigraine agents. The migraine triggers examined, tyramineand beta-PEA initially produced a repeatable complex time-relatedeffect on 5-HT-related head-twitching, with both inhibition andpotentiation of this behaviour being observed, however, when furtherexamination of the effect of the migraine triggers on 5-HT-relatedhead-twitching was attempted some time later the effects seeninitially were no longer produced. The effect of (±)-1-<2, 5-dimethoxy-4-iodophenyl)-2-aminopropane,((±)DOl), on on-going behaviour of mice and rats was examined. Shakingbehaviour was observed in both species. In mice, excessive scratchingbehaviour was also present. (±)DOl-induced scratching and shakingbehaviour were found to be differentially modulated by noradrenergicand serotonergic agents, however, the fact that both behaviours wereblocked by ritanserin (5-HT2/5-HT1c receptor antagonist) and inhibitedby FLA-63 (a dopamine-beta-oxidase inhibitor which depletesnoradrenaline), suggests the pathways mediating these behaviours mustbe convergent in some manner, and that both behaviours require intact5-HT receptors, probably 5-HT2 receptors, for their production. Ingeneral, the behavioural profile of (±)DOI was as expected for anagent which exhibits high affinity binding to 5-HT2/5-HT1c receptors.Little sign of the 5-HTl-related '5-HT syndrome' was seen in eithermice or rats. The effect of a variety of noradrenergic agents on head-twitchinginduced by a variety of shake-inducing agents was examined. A patternof modulatory effect was seen whereby the modulatory effect of thenoradrenergic agents on 5-hydroxytryptophan <5-HTP) (and in some cases, 5-methoxy-N,N-dimethyltryptamine (5-MeODMT)) was found to be the opposite of that observed with quipazine and (±)DOI. The relationship between these effects, and their implications for understanding the pharmacology of centrally acting drugs is discussed.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.

Reliability monitoring, feedback and improvement systems:their application in the machine tool industry

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Compensating for dispersion and nonlinear Kerr effect without phase conjugation

We propose the use of a dispersive medium with a negative nonlinear refractive-index coefficient as a way to compensate for the dispersion and the nonlinear effects resulting from pulse propagation in an optical fiber. The undoing of pulse interaction might allow for increased bit rates.

The analogue computer simulation of integrated chemical plant and controller systems

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT