Asymptotically exact probability distribution for the Sinai model with finite drift

We obtain the exact asymptotic result for the disorder-averaged probability distribution function for a random walk in a biased Sinai model and show that it is characterized by a creeping behavior of the displacement moments with time, similar to v(mu n), where mu <1 is dimensionless mean drift. We employ a method originated in quantum diffusion which is based on the exact mapping of the problem to an imaginary-time Schrodinger equation. For nonzero drift such an equation has an isolated lowest eigenvalue separated by a gap from quasicontinuous excited states, and the eigenstate corresponding to the former governs the long-time asymptotic behavior.

Design and validity of a miniaturized open-field aberrometer

PURPOSE: To validate a new miniaturised, open-field wavefront device which has been developed with the capacity to be attached to an ophthalmic surgical microscope or slit-lamp. SETTING: Solihull Hospital and Aston University, Birmingham, UK DESIGN: Comparative non-interventional study. METHODS: The dynamic range of the Aston Aberrometer was assessed using a calibrated model eye. The validity of the Aston Aberrometer was compared to a conventional desk mounted Shack-Hartmann aberrometer (Topcon KR1W) by measuring the refractive error and higher order aberrations of 75 dilated eyes with both instruments in random order. The Aston Aberrometer measurements were repeated five times to assess intra-session repeatability. Data was converted to vector form for analysis. RESULTS: The Aston Aberrometer had a large dynamic range of at least +21.0 D to -25.0 D. It gave similar measurements to a conventional aberrometer for mean spherical equivalent (mean difference ± 95% confidence interval: 0.02 ± 0.49D; correlation: r=0.995, p<0.001), astigmatic components (J0: 0.02 ± 0.15D; r=0.977, p<0.001; J45: 0.03 ± 0.28; r=0.666, p<0.001) and higher order aberrations RMS (0.02 ± 0.20D; r=0.620, p<0.001). Intraclass correlation coefficient assessments of intra-sessional repeatability for the Aston Aberrometer were excellent (spherical equivalent =1.000, p<0.001; astigmatic components J0 =0.998, p<0.001, J45=0.980, p<0.01; higher order aberrations RMS =0.961, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The Aston Aberrometer gives valid and repeatable measures of refractive error and higher order aberrations over a large range. As it is able to measure continuously, it can provide direct feedback to surgeons during intraocular lens implantations and corneal surgery as to the optical status of the visual system.

Estimation of TFP growth:a semiparametric smooth coefficient approach

This article uses a semiparametric smooth coefficient model (SPSCM) to estimate TFP growth and its components (scale and technical change). The SPSCM is derived from a nonparametric specification of the production technology represented by an input distance function (IDF), using a growth formulation. The functional coefficients of the SPSCM come naturally from the model and are fully flexible in the sense that no functional form of the underlying production technology is used to derive them. Another advantage of the SPSCM is that it can estimate bias (input and scale) in technical change in a fully flexible manner. We also used a translog IDF framework to estimate TFP growth components. A panel of U.S. electricity generating plants for the period 1986–1998 is used for this purpose. Comparing estimated TFP growth results from both parametric and semiparametric models against the Divisia TFP growth, we conclude that the SPSCM performs the best in tracking the temporal behavior of TFP growth.

Development of a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental health clinical expertise

This thesis explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. Probabilistic graphical structures can be a combination of graph and probability theory that provide numerous advantages when it comes to the representation of domains involving uncertainty, domains such as the mental health domain. In this thesis the advantages that probabilistic graphical structures offer in representing such domains is built on. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. In this thesis the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. This thesis describes how a chain graph can be developed from the psychological model to provide a probabilistic evaluation of risk that complements the one generated by GRiST’s clinical expertise by the decomposing of the GRiST knowledge structure in component parts, which were in turned mapped into equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements

The dawn of the RNA World:toward functional complexity through ligation of random RNA oligomers

A main unsolved problem in the RNA World scenario for the origin of life is how a template-dependent RNA polymerase ribozyme emerged from short RNA oligomers obtained by random polymerization on mineral surfaces. A number of computational studies have shown that the structural repertoire yielded by that process is dominated by topologically simple structures, notably hairpin-like ones. A fraction of these could display RNA ligase activity and catalyze the assembly of larger, eventually functional RNA molecules retaining their previous modular structure: molecular complexity increases but template replication is absent. This allows us to build up a stepwise model of ligation- based, modular evolution that could pave the way to the emergence of a ribozyme with RNA replicase activity, step at which information-driven Darwinian evolution would be triggered. Copyright © 2009 RNA Society.

Dynamics of linear polymers in random media

We study phenomenological scaling theories of the polymer dynamics in random media, employing the existing scaling theories of polymer chains and the percolation statistics. We investigate both the Rouse and the Zimm model for Brownian dynamics and estimate the diffusion constant of the center-of-mass of the chain in such disordered media. For internal dynamics of the chain, we estimate the dynamic exponents. We propose similar scaling theory for the reptation dynamics of the chain in the framework of Flory theory for the disordered medium. The modifications in the case of correlated disorders are also discussed. .

Random walks in local dynamics of network losses

We suggest a model for data losses in a single node (memory buffer) of a packet-switched network (like the Internet) which reduces to one-dimensional discrete random walks with unusual boundary conditions. By construction, the model has critical behavior with a sharp transition from exponentially small to finite losses with increasing data arrival rate. We show that for a finite-capacity buffer at the critical point the loss rate exhibits strong fluctuations and non-Markovian power-law correlations in time, in spite of the Markovian character of the data arrival process.

Random distributed feedback fibre lasers

The concept of random lasers exploiting multiple scattering of photons in an amplifying disordered medium in order to generate coherent light without a traditional laser resonator has attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. This research area lies at the interface of the fundamental theory of disordered systems and laser science. The idea was originally proposed in the context of astrophysics in the 1960s by V.S. Letokhov, who studied scattering with "negative absorption" of the interstellar molecular clouds. Research on random lasers has since developed into a mature experimental and theoretical field. A simple design of such lasers would be promising for potential applications. However, in traditional random lasers the properties of the output radiation are typically characterized by complex features in the spatial, spectral and time domains, making them less attractive than standard laser systems in terms of practical applications. Recently, an interesting and novel type of one-dimensional random laser that operates in a conventional telecommunication fibre without any pre-designed resonator mirrors-random distributed feedback fibre laser-was demonstrated. The positive feedback required for laser generation in random fibre lasers is provided by the Rayleigh scattering from the inhomogeneities of the refractive index that are naturally present in silica glass. In the proposed laser concept, the randomly backscattered light is amplified through the Raman effect, providing distributed gain over distances up to 100km. Although an effective reflection due to the Rayleigh scattering is extremely small (~0.1%), the lasing threshold may be exceeded when a sufficiently large distributed Raman gain is provided. Such a random distributed feedback fibre laser has a number of interesting and attractive features. The fibre waveguide geometry provides transverse confinement, and effectively one-dimensional random distributed feedback leads to the generation of a stationary near-Gaussian beam with a narrow spectrum. A random distributed feedback fibre laser has efficiency and performance that are comparable to and even exceed those of similar conventional fibre lasers. The key features of the generated radiation of random distributed feedback fibre lasers include: a stationary narrow-band continuous modeless spectrum that is free of mode competition, nonlinear power broadening, and an output beam with a Gaussian profile in the fundamental transverse mode (generated both in single mode and multi-mode fibres).This review presents the current status of research in the field of random fibre lasers and shows their potential and perspectives. We start with an introductory overview of conventional distributed feedback lasers and traditional random lasers to set the stage for discussion of random fibre lasers. We then present a theoretical analysis and experimental studies of various random fibre laser configurations, including widely tunable, multi-wavelength, narrow-band generation, and random fibre lasers operating in different spectral bands in the 1-1.6μm range. Then we discuss existing and future applications of random fibre lasers, including telecommunication and distributed long reach sensor systems. A theoretical description of random lasers is very challenging and is strongly linked with the theory of disordered systems and kinetic theory. We outline two key models governing the generation of random fibre lasers: the average power balance model and the nonlinear Schrödinger equation based model. Recently invented random distributed feedback fibre lasers represent a new and exciting field of research that brings together such diverse areas of science as laser physics, the theory of disordered systems, fibre optics and nonlinear science. Stable random generation in optical fibre opens up new possibilities for research on wave transport and localization in disordered media. We hope that this review will provide background information for research in various fields and will stimulate cross-disciplinary collaborations on random fibre lasers. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Developing a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental-health clinical risk expertise

This paper explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool [1] is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. This paper details how the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. These semantics are formalised by a detailed specification for an XML structure used to represent the expertise. The component parts were then mapped to equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

Modeling of spectral and statistical properties of a random distributed feedback fiber laser

For the first time we report full numerical NLSE-based modeling of generation properties of random distributed feedback fiber laser based on Rayleigh scattering. The model which takes into account the random backscattering via its average strength only describes well power and spectral properties of random DFB fiber lasers. The influence of dispersion and nonlinearity on spectral and statistical properties is investigated. The evidence of non-gaussian intensity statistics is found. © 2013 Optical Society of America.

A two-stage model of orientation integration for Battenberg-modulated micropatterns

The visual system pools information from local samples to calculate textural properties. We used a novel stimulus to investigate how signals are combined to improve estimates of global orientation. Stimuli were 29 × 29 element arrays of 4 c/deg log Gabors, spaced 1° apart. A proportion of these elements had a coherent orientation (horizontal/vertical) with the remainder assigned random orientations. The observer's task was to identify the global orientation. The spatial configuration of the signal was modulated by a checkerboard pattern of square checks containing potential signal elements. The other locations contained either randomly oriented elements (''noise check'') or were blank (''blank check''). The distribution of signal elements was manipulated by varying the size and location of the checks within a fixed-diameter stimulus. An ideal detector would only pool responses from potential signal elements. Humans did this for medium check sizes and for large check sizes when a signal was presented in the fovea. For small check sizes, however, the pooling occurred indiscriminately over relevant and irrelevant locations. For these check sizes, thresholds for the noise check and blank check conditions were similar, suggesting that the limiting noise is not induced by the response to the noise elements. The results are described by a model that filters the stimulus at the potential target orientations and then combines the signals over space in two stages. The first is a mandatory integration of local signals over a fixed area, limited by internal noise at each location. The second is a taskdependent combination of the outputs from the first stage. © 2014 ARVO.

Pricing-to-market using EGARCH-error correction model

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.

Concentration polarization model of spiral-wound membrane modules with application to batch-mode RO desalination of brackish water

Batch-mode reverse osmosis (batch-RO) operation is considered a promising desalination method due to its low energy requirement compared to other RO system arrangements. To improve and predict batch-RO performance, studies on concentration polarization (CP) are carried out. The Kimura-Sourirajan mass-transfer model is applied and validated by experimentation with two different spiral-wound RO elements. Explicit analytical Sherwood correlations are derived based on experimental results. For batch-RO operation, a new genetic algorithm method is developed to estimate the Sherwood correlation parameters, taking into account the effects of variation in operating parameters. Analytical procedures are presented, then the mass transfer coefficient models are developed for different operation processes, i.e., batch-RO and continuous RO. The CP related energy loss in batch-RO operation is quantified based on the resulting relationship between feed flow rates and mass transfer coefficients. It is found that CP increases energy consumption in batch-RO by about 25% compared to the ideal case in which CP is absent. For continuous RO process, the derived Sherwood correlation predicted CP accurately. In addition, we determined the optimum feed flow rate of our batch-RO system.

Wave kinetics of random fibre lasers

Traditional wave kinetics describes the slow evolution of systems with many degrees of freedom to equilibrium via numerous weak non-linear interactions and fails for very important class of dissipative (active) optical systems with cyclic gain and losses, such as lasers with non-linear intracavity dynamics. Here we introduce a conceptually new class of cyclic wave systems, characterized by non-uniform double-scale dynamics with strong periodic changes of the energy spectrum and slow evolution from cycle to cycle to a statistically steady state. Taking a practically important example—random fibre laser—we show that a model describing such a system is close to integrable non-linear Schrödinger equation and needs a new formalism of wave kinetics, developed here. We derive a non-linear kinetic theory of the laser spectrum, generalizing the seminal linear model of Schawlow and Townes. Experimental results agree with our theory. The work has implications for describing kinetics of cyclical systems beyond photonics.