Ground cracking and frost heaving associated with chilled gas pipeline operations in Britain

This thesis investigates the soil-pipeline interactions associated with the operation of large-diameter chilled gas pipelines in Britain, these are frost/pipe heave and ground cracking. The investigation was biased towards the definition of the mechanism of ground cracking and, the parameters which influence its generation and subsequent development, especially its interaction with frost heave. The study involved a literature review, questionnaire, large-scale test and small-scale laboratory model experiments. The literature review concentrated on soil-pipeline interactions and frost action, with frost/pipe heave often reported but ground cracking was seldom reported. A questionnaire was circulated within British Gas to gain further information on these interactions. The replies indicated that if frost/pipe heave was reported, ground cracking was also likely to be observed. These soil-pipeline interactions were recorded along 19% of pipelines in the survey and were more likely along the larger diameter, higher flow pipelines. A large-scale trial along a 900 mm pipeline was undertaken to assess the soil thermal, hydraulic and stress regimes, together with pipe and ground movements. Results indicated that cracking occurred intermittently along the pipeline during periods of rapid frost/pipe heave and ground movement and, that frozen annulus growth produced a ground surface profile was approximated by a normal probability distribution curve. This curve indicates maximum tensile strain directly over the pipe centre. Finally a small-scale laboratory model was operated to further define the ground cracking mechanism. Ground cracking was observed at small upward ground surface movement, and with continued movement the ground crack increased in width and depth. At the end of the experiments internal soil failure planes slanting upwards and away from the frozen annulus were noted. The suggested mechanism for ground cracking involved frozen annulus growth producing tensile strain in the overlying unfrozen soil, which when sufficient produced a crack.

INTAMAP: the design and implementation of an interoperable automated interpolation web service

INTAMAP is a Web Processing Service for the automatic spatial interpolation of measured point data. Requirements were (i) using open standards for spatial data such as developed in the context of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), (ii) using a suitable environment for statistical modelling and computation, and (iii) producing an integrated, open source solution. The system couples an open-source Web Processing Service (developed by 52°North), accepting data in the form of standardised XML documents (conforming to the OGC Observations and Measurements standard) with a computing back-end realised in the R statistical environment. The probability distribution of interpolation errors is encoded with UncertML, a markup language designed to encode uncertain data. Automatic interpolation needs to be useful for a wide range of applications and the algorithms have been designed to cope with anisotropy, extreme values, and data with known error distributions. Besides a fully automatic mode, the system can be used with different levels of user control over the interpolation process.

Call admission control algorithms in OFDM-based wireless multiservice networks

Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) is becoming a fundamental technology in future generation wireless communications. Call admission control is an effective mechanism to guarantee resilient, efficient, and quality-of-service (QoS) services in wireless mobile networks. In this paper, we present several call admission control algorithms for OFDM-based wireless multiservice networks. Call connection requests are differentiated into narrow-band calls and wide-band calls. For either class of calls, the traffic process is characterized as batch arrival since each call may request multiple subcarriers to satisfy its QoS requirement. The batch size is a random variable following a probability mass function (PMF) with realistically maximum value. In addition, the service times for wide-band and narrow-band calls are different. Following this, we perform a tele-traffic queueing analysis for OFDM-based wireless multiservice networks. The formulae for the significant performance metrics call blocking probability and bandwidth utilization are developed. Numerical investigations are presented to demonstrate the interaction between key parameters and performance metrics. The performance tradeoff among different call admission control algorithms is discussed. Moreover, the analytical model has been validated by simulation. The methodology as well as the result provides an efficient tool for planning next-generation OFDM-based broadband wireless access systems.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Statistics of three interacting optical solitons

We examine the statistics of three interacting optical solitons under the effects of amplifier noise and filtering. We derive rigorously the Fokker-Planck equation that governs the probability distribution of soliton parameters.

Effects of rare-earth co-doping on the local structure of rare-earth phosphate glasses using high and low energy X-ray diffraction

Rare-earth co-doping in inorganic materials has a long-held tradition of facilitating highly desirable optoelectronic properties for their application to the laser industry. This study concentrates specifically on rare-earth phosphate glasses, (R2O3)x(R'2O3)y(P2O5)1-(x+y), where (R, R') denotes (Ce, Er) or (La, Nd) co-doping and the total rare-earth composition corresponds to a range between metaphosphate, RP3O9, and ultraphosphate, RP5O14. Thereupon, the effects of rare-earth co-doping on the local structure are assessed at the atomic level. Pair-distribution function analysis of high-energy X-ray diffraction data (Qmax = 28 Å-1) is employed to make this assessment. Results reveal a stark structural invariance to rare-earth co-doping which bears testament to the open-framework and rigid nature of these glasses. A range of desirable attributes of these glasses unfold from this finding; in particular, a structural simplicity that will enable facile molecular engineering of rare-earth phosphate glasses with 'dial-up' lasing properties. When considered together with other factors, this finding also demonstrates additional prospects for these co-doped rare-earth phosphate glasses in nuclear waste storage applications. This study also reveals, for the first time, the ability to distinguish between P-O and PO bonding in these rare-earth phosphate glasses from X-ray diffraction data in a fully quantitative manner. Complementary analysis of high-energy X-ray diffraction data on single rare-earth phosphate glasses of similar rare-earth composition to the co-doped materials is also presented in this context. In a technical sense, all high-energy X-ray diffraction data on these glasses are compared with analogous low-energy diffraction data; their salient differences reveal distinct advantages of high-energy X-ray diffraction data for the study of amorphous materials. © 2013 The Owner Societies.

The accuracy of parameter estimation from noisy data, with application to resonance peak estimation in distributed Brillouin sensing

Distributed Brillouin sensing of strain and temperature works by making spatially resolved measurements of the position of the measurand-dependent extremum of the resonance curve associated with the scattering process in the weakly nonlinear regime. Typically, measurements of backscattered Stokes intensity (the dependent variable) are made at a number of predetermined fixed frequencies covering the design measurand range of the apparatus and combined to yield an estimate of the position of the extremum. The measurand can then be found because its relationship to the position of the extremum is assumed known. We present analytical expressions relating the relative error in the extremum position to experimental errors in the dependent variable. This is done for two cases: (i) a simple non-parametric estimate of the mean based on moments and (ii) the case in which a least squares technique is used to fit a Lorentzian to the data. The question of statistical bias in the estimates is discussed and in the second case we go further and present for the first time a general method by which the probability density function (PDF) of errors in the fitted parameters can be obtained in closed form in terms of the PDFs of the errors in the noisy data.

Statistics of three interacting optical solitons

We examine the statistics of three interacting optical solitons under the effects of amplifier noise and filtering. We derive rigorously the Fokker-Planck equation that governs the probability distribution of soliton parameters.

Statistics of a noise-driven Manakov soliton

We investigate the statistics of a vector Manakov soliton in the presence of additive Gaussian white noise. The adiabatic perturbation theory for a Manakov soliton yields a stochastic Langevin system which we analyse via the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density function (PDF) for the soliton parameters. We obtain marginal PDFs for the soliton frequency and amplitude as well as soliton amplitude and polarization angle. We also derive formulae for the variances of all soliton parameters and analyse their dependence on the initial values of polarization angle and phase. © 2006 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Comparison of bit error rate estimation methods for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission

In this letter, we experimentally study the statistical properties of a received QPSK modulated signal and compare various bit error rate (BER) estimation methods for coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing transmission. We show that the statistical BER estimation method based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols offers the most accurate estimate of the system performance.

Bridging large and small scales of water models using hybrid Molecular Dynamics/Fluctuating Hydrodynamics framework

This thesis presents a two-dimensional water model investigation and development of a multiscale method for the modelling of large systems, such as virus in water or peptide immersed in the solvent. We have implemented a two-dimensional ‘Mercedes Benz’ (MB) or BN2D water model using Molecular Dynamics. We have studied its dynamical and structural properties dependence on the model’s parameters. For the first time we derived formulas to calculate thermodynamic properties of the MB model in the microcanonical (NVE) ensemble. We also derived equations of motion in the isothermal–isobaric (NPT) ensemble. We have analysed the rotational degree of freedom of the model in both ensembles. We have developed and implemented a self-consistent multiscale method, which is able to communicate micro- and macro- scales. This multiscale method assumes, that matter consists of the two phases. One phase is related to micro- and the other to macroscale. We simulate the macro scale using Landau Lifshitz-Fluctuating Hydrodynamics, while we describe the microscale using Molecular Dynamics. We have demonstrated that the communication between the disparate scales is possible without introduction of fictitious interface or approximations which reduce the accuracy of the information exchange between the scales. We have investigated control parameters, which were introduced to control the contribution of each phases to the matter behaviour. We have shown, that microscales inherit dynamical properties of the macroscales and vice versa, depending on the concentration of each phase. We have shown, that Radial Distribution Function is not altered and velocity autocorrelation functions are gradually transformed, from Molecular Dynamics to Fluctuating Hydrodynamics description, when phase balance is changed. In this work we test our multiscale method for the liquid argon, BN2D and SPC/E water models. For the SPC/E water model we investigate microscale fluctuations which are computed using advanced mapping technique of the small scales to the large scales, which was developed by Voulgarakisand et. al.

Stability of multi-agent systems

This work attempts to shed light to the fundamental concepts behind the stability of Multi-Agent Systems. We view the system as a discrete time Markov chain with a potentially unknown transitional probability distribution. The system will be considered to be stable when its state has converged to an equilibrium distribution. Faced with the non-trivial task of establishing the convergence to such a distribution, we propose a hypothesis testing approach according to which we test whether the convergence of a particular system metric has occurred. We describe some artificial multi-agent ecosystems that were developed and we present results based on these systems which confirm that this approach qualitatively agrees with our intuition.

Calculation of non-Gaussian statistics and bit error rate degradation due to pulse-to-pulse interaction

We develop a theoretical method to calculate jitter statistics of interacting solitons. Applying this approach, we have derived the non-Gaussian probability density function and calculated the bit-error rate as a function of noise level, initial separation and phase difference between solitons.

Contact time periods in immunological synapse

This paper resolves the long standing debate as to the proper time scale τ of the onset of the immunological synapse bond, the noncovalent chemical bond defining the immune pathways involving T cells and antigen presenting cells. Results from our model calculations show τ to be of the order of seconds instead of minutes. Close to the linearly stable regime, we show that in between the two critical spatial thresholds defined by the integrin:ligand pair (Δ2∼ 40-45 nm) and the T-cell receptor TCR:peptide-major-histocompatibility-complex pMHC bond (Δ1∼ 14-15 nm), τ grows monotonically with increasing coreceptor bond length separation δ (= Δ2-Δ1∼ 26-30 nm) while τ decays with Δ1 for fixed Δ2. The nonuniversal δ-dependent power-law structure of the probability density function further explains why only the TCR:pMHC bond is a likely candidate to form a stable synapse.

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained.