Excess leverage and productivity growth in emerging economies:is there a threshold effect?

This paper studies the relationship between leverage and growth, focusing on a large sample of firms in emerging economies of central and eastern Europe (CEE). Contrary to the general wisdom, we find that deviation from optimal leverage, especially, excess leverage is common among firms in many CEE countries. Using firm-level panel data from a group of transition countries, the paper provides support to the hypothesis that leverage positively affects productivity growth but only below an endogenously determined threshold level.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

Multinational firms, productivity and employment

Over the last three decades foreign direct investment (FDI) has become the most visible driver of globalisation. It has grown faster than world output and international trade and now reports world annual flows exceeding 1,000 billion US dollars. In this period, Germany has undergone significant changes in order to play an important role in the globalisation process. Apart from being a member state of the European Union (EU) whose key feature is the free flow of trade, investment and labour, the re-unification of East and West Germany in 1990 has been a significant development. This in effect has meant that East Germany as well as other Eastern European nations opened up to foreign investment for the first time. In this period, Germany has attracted in excess of 10 per cent of inward FDI into the EU and invested around 15 per cent of all FDI in the EU. This thesis explores empirically the potential impact of FDI on firms operating in and investing from Germany over a ten year period. Using panel data at the firm-level it concentrates on three areas relating to FDI. Firstly, it considers whether foreign-owned firms are more productive than German multinational firms and German non-multinational firms. Secondly, the thesis considers the impact of German investments abroad on domestic productivity. Finally, employment effects emanating from outward high-tech FDI are estimated for the leading OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, namely Germany, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Japan. The findings of the first analysis indicate that while foreign-owned firms are generally more productive than German non-multinationals, there is no clear cut difference between foreign-owned firms and German multinationals. These differences would not have been uncovered, had the analysis compared foreign firms with all domestic firms. Equally, location within Germany is also important, as this productivity gap is more pronounced for firms which are located in the Eastern states. The findings of the second analysis suggest that engaging in outward FDI has an overall positive effect on the parent firm's productivity at home. Finally, results of the third analysis show that an expansion of high-tech offshoring activities by OECD multinationals (MNEs) is not associated with any reduction in employment at home.

Industrial policy, FDI and employment:still a 'missing a strategy'

This paper contrasts the effects of trade, inward FDI and technological development upon the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the UK. By focussing on industry level data panel data on smaller firms, the paper also contrasts these effects with those generated by large scale domestic investment. The analysis is placed within the broader context of shifts in British industrial policy, which has seen significant shifts from sectoral to horizontal measures and towards stressing the importance of SMEs, clusters and new technology, all delivered at the regional scale. This, however, is contrasted with continued elements of British and EU regional policy which have emphasised the attraction of inward investment in order to alleviate regional unemployment. The results suggest that such policies are not naturally compatible; that while both trade and FDI benefit skilled workers, they have adverse effects on the demand for unskilled labour in the UK. At the very least this suggests the need for a range of policies to tackle various targets (including in this case unemployment and social inclusion) and the need to integrate these into a coherent industrial strategy at various levels of governance, whether regional and/or national. This has important implications for the form of any ‘new’ industrial policy.

Inequality, fiscal capacity and the political regime: lessons from the post-communist transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.

Absorptive capacity and the benefits from global reservoirs of knowledge:evidence from a linked China-OECD dataset

This paper investigates the role of absorptive capacity in the diffusion of global technology with sector and firm heterogeneity. We construct the FDI-intensity weighted global R&D stock for each industry and link it to Chinese firm-level panel data relating to 53,981 firms over the period 2001-2005. Non-parametric frontier analysis is employed to explore how absorptive capacity affects technical change and catch-up in the presence of global knowledge spillovers. We find that R&D activities and training at individual firms serve as an effective source of absorptive capability. The contribution of absorptive capacity varies according to the type of FDI and the extent of openness.

Bridging the gap? Corruption, knowledge and foreign ownership

We argue that in addition to host corruption per se, as accounted for by the existing literature, an explanation of inter-country variation in FDI needs to account for the distance between the host and home corruption, which we call relative corruption. We use a large matched home-host firm-level panel data-set for 1998-2006 from CEE transition countries. Year-specific selectivity corrected estimates suggest that, ceteris paribus, higher relative ‘grand’ corruption lowers foreign ownership as the returns to investment tends to be lower in more corrupt environment. However, after controlling for the selectivity bias, knowledge-intensive parent firms are found to hold controlling ownership, as the difficulty of successful joint venture looms large in more corrupt environment. Results are robust to alternative specifications.

Investing in conflict zones:a firm-level analysis

The purpose of this paper is to examine, using panel data econometric techniques, the determinants of a firm’s strategy to invest in a conflict location. To the best of our knowledge this has not been done before. We use a large database of firm-level data that includes 2858 multinational firms that have a subsidiary in a developing country (during 1999-2006). Out of these firms 290 are classified as having a subsidiary in a conflict location. The choice of a conflict location is based on data from the Inter Country Risk Guide (ICRG). We start with the population of multinationals who have chosen to invest in low income countries with weak institutions. Our analysis then proceeds to explain the decision of those firms to invest in conflict locations. We have four hypotheses: (1) Firms with concentrated ownership are more likely to invest in a conflict region; (2) Firms from countries with weaker institutions are more likely to invest in conflict regions; (3) Firms and Countries with less concern over corporate social responsibility are more likely to invest in conflict countries; and (4) that there is large sector level differences in the propensity to invest in a conflict region. The results suggest that all of these hypotheses can be confirmed.

Costs and efficiency of higher education institutions in England:a DEA analysis

As student numbers in higher education in the UK have expanded during recent years, it has become increasingly important to understand its cost structure. This study applies Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to higher education institutions in England to assess their cost structure, efficiency and productivity. The paper complements an earlier study that used parametric methods to analyse the same panel data. Interestingly, DEA provides estimates of subject-specific unit costs that are in the same ballpark as those provided by the parametric methods. The paper then extends the previous analysis and finds that further student number increases of the order of 20–27% are feasible through exploiting operating and scale efficiency gains and also adjusting student mix. Finally the paper uses a Malmquist index approach to assess productivity change in the UK higher education. The results reveal that for a majority of institutions productivity has actually decreased during the study period.

Learning from openness : the dynamics of breadth in external innovation linkages

We explore how openness in terms of external linkages generates learning effects, which enable firms to generate more innovation outputs from any given breadth of external linkages. Openness to external knowledge sources, whether through search activity or linkages to external partners in new product development, involves a process of interaction and information processing. Such activities are likely to be subject to a learning process, as firms learn which knowledge sources and collaborative linkages are most useful to their particular needs, and which partnerships are most effective in delivering innovation performance. Using panel data from Irish manufacturing plants, we find evidence of such learning effects: establishments with substantial experience of external collaborations in previous periods derive more innovation output from openness in the current period. © 2013 The Authors. Strategic Management Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Externalities of openness in innovation

Discussion of open innovation has typically stressed the benefits to the individual enterprise from boundary-spanning linkages and improved internal knowledge sharing. In this paper we explore the potential for wider benefits from openness in innovation and argue that openness may itself generate positive externalities by enabling improved knowledge diffusion. The potential for these (positive) externalities suggests a divergence between the private and social returns to openness and the potential for a sub-optimal level of openness where this is determined purely by firms' private returns. Our analysis is based on Irish plant-level panel data from manufacturing industry over the period 1994-2008. Based on instrumental variables regression models our results suggest that externalities of openness in innovation are significant and that they are positively associated with firms' innovation performance. We find that these externality effects are unlikely to work through their effect on the spread of open innovation practices. Instead, they appear to positively influence innovation outputs by either increasing knowledge diffusion or strengthening competition. Our evidence on the significance of externalities from openness in innovation provides a rationale for public policy aimed at promoting open innovation practices among firms. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing performance of organisational units with PIMsoft:a new DEA software

DEA literature continues apace but software has lagged behind. This session uses suitably selected data to present newly developed software which includes many of the most recent DEA models. The software enables the user to address a variety of issues not frequently found in existing DEA software such as: -Assessments under a variety of possible assumptions of returns to scale including NIRS and NDRS; -Scale elasticity computations; -Numerous Input/Output variables and truly unlimited number of assessment units (DMUs) -Panel data analysis -Analysis of categorical data (multiple categories) -Malmquist Index and its decompositions -Computations of Supper efficiency -Automated removal of super-efficient outliers under user-specified criteria; -Graphical presentation of results -Integrated statistical tests

Public sector efficiency, foreign aid and small island development states

This paper examines the efficiency of public sector expenditures and foreign aid at achieving social sector outcomes in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Efficiency is estimated using a Stochastic Production Function (SPF) approach and panel data since 1990. A second stage of the analysis examines the determinants of efficiency. Results indicate that the efficiency of aid and public sectors at improving life expectancy has deteriorated during the 1990s but efficiency at improving school enrolments has increased. Higher levels of governance are associated with higher efficiency. There is also evidence to suggest that efficiency is lower in SIDS, as well as in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Spillovers from FDI and local networks:the importance of transactional linkages and vertical keiretsu in Japan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the importance of host country networks and organisation of production in the context of international technology transfer that accompanies foreign direct investment (FDI). Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis is based on unbalanced panel data covering Japanese firms active in two-digit manufacturing sectors over a seven-year period. Given the self-selection problem affecting past sectoral-level studies, using firm-level panel data is a prerequisite to provide robust empirical evidence. Findings – While Japan is thought of as being a technologically advanced country, the results show that vertical productivity spillovers from FDI occur in Japan, but they are sensitive to technological differences between domestic firms and the idiosyncratic Japanese institutional network. FDI in vertically organised keiretsu sectors generates inter-industry spillovers through backward and forward linkages, while FDI within sectors linked to vertical keiretsu activities adversely affects domestic productivity. Overall, our results suggest that the role of vertical keiretsu is more prevalent than that of horizontal keiretsu. Originality/value – Japan’s industrial landscape has been dominated by institutional clusters or networks of inter-firm organisations through reciprocated, direct and indirect ties. However, interactions between inward investors and such institutionalised networks in the host economy are seldom explored. The role and characteristics of local business groups, in the form of keiretsu networks, have been investigated to determine the scale and scope of spillovers from inward FDI to Japanese establishments. This conceptualisation depends on the institutional mechanism and the market structure through which host economies absorb and exploit FDI.

Learning from openness:the dynamics of breadth in external innovation linkages

We explore how openness in terms of external linkages generates learning effects, which enable firms to generate more innovation outputs from any given breadth of external linkages. Openness to external knowledge sources, whether through search activity or linkages to external partners in new product development, involves a process of interaction and information processing. Such activities are likely to be subject to a learning process, as firms learn which knowledge sources and collaborative linkages are most useful to their particular needs, and which partnerships are most effective in delivering innovation performance. Using panel data from Irish manufacturing plants, we find evidence of such learning effects: establishments with substantial experience of external collaborations in previous periods derive more innovation output from openness in the current period. © 2013 The Authors. Strategic Management Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.