A method for automatically eliciting node weights in a hierarchical knowledge-based structure for reasoning with uncertainty

Hierarchical knowledge structures are frequently used within clinical decision support systems as part of the model for generating intelligent advice. The nodes in the hierarchy inevitably have varying influence on the decisionmaking processes, which needs to be reflected by parameters. If the model has been elicited from human experts, it is not feasible to ask them to estimate the parameters because there will be so many in even moderately-sized structures. This paper describes how the parameters could be obtained from data instead, using only a small number of cases. The original method [1] is applied to a particular web-based clinical decision support system called GRiST, which uses its hierarchical knowledge to quantify the risks associated with mental-health problems. The knowledge was elicited from multidisciplinary mental-health practitioners but the tree has several thousand nodes, all requiring an estimation of their relative influence on the assessment process. The method described in the paper shows how they can be obtained from about 200 cases instead. It greatly reduces the experts’ elicitation tasks and has the potential for being generalised to similar knowledge-engineering domains where relative weightings of node siblings are part of the parameter space.

Potential for broad range multiplexing of fibre Bragg gratings in polymer optical fibres and operation in the 700-nm wavelength range

Refractive index and structural characteristics of optical polymers are strongly influenced by the thermal history of the material. Polymer optical fibres (POF) are drawn under tension, resulting in axial orientation of the polymer molecular chains due to their susceptibility to align in the fibre direction. This change in orientation from the drawing process results in residual strain in the fibre and also affects the transparency and birefringence of the material (1-3). PMMA POF has failure strain as high as over 100%. POF has to be drawn under low tension to achieve this value. The drawing tension affects the magnitude of molecular alignment along the fibre axis, thus affecting the failure strain. The higher the tension the lower the failure stain will be. However, the properties of fibre drawn under high tension can approach that of fibre drawn under low tension by means of an annealing process. Annealing the fibre can generally optimise the performance of POF while keeping most advantages intact. Annealing procedures can reduce index difference throughout the bulk and also reduce residual stress that may cause fracture or distortion. POF can be annealed at temperatures approaching the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the polymer to produce FBG with a permanent blue Bragg wave-length shift at room temperature. At this elevated temperature segmental motion in the structure results in a lower viscosity. The material softens and the molecular chains relax from the axial orientation causing shrinking of the fibre. The large attenuation of typically 1dB/cm in the 1550nm spectral region of PMMA POF has limited FBG lengths to less than 10cm. The more expensive fluorinated polymers with lower absorption have had no success as FBG waveguides. Bragg grating have been inscribed onto various POF in the 800nm spectral region using a 30mW continuous wave 325nm helium cadmium laser, with a much reduced attenuation coefficient of 10dB/m (5). Fabricating multiplexed FBGs in the 800nm spectral region in TOPAS and PMMA POF consistently has lead to fabrication of multiplexed FBG in the 700nm spectral region by a method of prolonged annealing. The Bragg wavelength shift of gratings fabricated in PMMA fibre at 833nm and 867nm was monitored whilst the POF was thermally annealed at 80°C. Permanent shifts exceeding 80nm into the 700nm spectral region was attained by both gratings on the fibre. The large permanent shift creates the possibility of multiplexed Bragg sensors operating over a broad range. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Pellerin C, Prud'homme RE, Pézolet M. Effect of thermal history on the molecular orientation in polystyrene/poly (vinyl methyl ether) blends. Polymer. 2003;44(11):3291-7. 2. Dvoránek L, Machová L, Šorm M, Pelzbauer Z, Švantner J, Kubánek V. Effects of drawing conditions on the properties of optical fibers made from polystyrene and poly (methyl methacrylate). Die Angewandte Makromolekulare Chemie. 1990;174(1):25-39. 3. Dugas J, Pierrejean I, Farenc J, Peichot JP. Birefringence and internal stress in polystyrene optical fibers. Applied optics. 1994;33(16):3545-8. 4. Jiang C, Kuzyk MG, Ding JL, Johns WE, Welker DJ. Fabrication and mechanical behavior of dye-doped polymer optical fiber. Journal of applied physics. 2002;92(1):4-12. 5. Johnson IP, Webb DJ, Kalli K, Yuan W, Stefani A, Nielsen K, et al., editors. Polymer PCF Bragg grating sensors based on poly (methyl methacrylate) and TOPAS cyclic olefin copolymer2011: SPIE.

Short-circuit and ground fault analyses and location in VSC-based DC network cables

The application of high-power voltage-source converters (VSCs) to multiterminal dc networks is attracting research interest. The development of VSC-based dc networks is constrained by the lack of operational experience, the immaturity of appropriate protective devices, and the lack of appropriate fault analysis techniques. VSCs are vulnerable to dc-cable short-circuit and ground faults due to the high discharge current from the dc-link capacitance. However, faults occurring along the interconnecting dc cables are most likely to threaten system operation. In this paper, cable faults in VSC-based dc networks are analyzed in detail with the identification and definition of the most serious stages of the fault that need to be avoided. A fault location method is proposed because this is a prerequisite for an effective design of a fault protection scheme. It is demonstrated that it is relatively easy to evaluate the distance to a short-circuit fault using voltage reference comparison. For the more difficult challenge of locating ground faults, a method of estimating both the ground resistance and the distance to the fault is proposed by analyzing the initial stage of the fault transient. Analysis of the proposed method is provided and is based on simulation results, with a range of fault resistances, distances, and operational conditions considered.

Using architecture models to support the generation and operation of component-based adaptive systems

Modelling architectural information is particularly important because of the acknowledged crucial role of software architecture in raising the level of abstraction during development. In the MDE area, the level of abstraction of models has frequently been related to low-level design concepts. However, model-driven techniques can be further exploited to model software artefacts that take into account the architecture of the system and its changes according to variations of the environment. In this paper, we propose model-driven techniques and dynamic variability as concepts useful for modelling the dynamic fluctuation of the environment and its impact on the architecture. Using the mappings from the models to implementation, generative techniques allow the (semi) automatic generation of artefacts making the process more efficient and promoting software reuse. The automatic generation of configurations and reconfigurations from models provides the basis for safer execution. The architectural perspective offered by the models shift focus away from implementation details to the whole view of the system and its runtime change promoting high-level analysis. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Two different operation regimes of fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation : passive mode-locking and multiwavelength emission

We have proposed and demonstrated a nonlinear polarization-rotation-based fiber laser with two different operation states: passive mode-locking and multiwavelength emission. The intensity-dependent transmission or loss induced by nonlinear polarization rotation accounts for the distinct operation regimes. Our experiment results indicate that both passively mode-locked pulses and continuous-wave multiwavelength can be generated from the same fiber laser just through adjusting polarizations. Another characteristic of the current multiwavelength laser is that the used periodic filter is a birefringence fiber filter, which facilitates all-fiber integration of the fiber laser, so it is a potential multifunction laser source with all-fiber configuration and convenient manipulation. © 2008 IEEE.

An iterative method based on boundary integrals for elliptic Cauchy problems in semi-infinite domains

In this study, we investigate the problem of reconstruction of a stationary temperature field from given temperature and heat flux on a part of the boundary of a semi-infinite region containing an inclusion. This situation can be modelled as a Cauchy problem for the Laplace operator and it is an ill-posed problem in the sense of Hadamard. We propose and investigate a Landweber-Fridman type iterative method, which preserve the (stationary) heat operator, for the stable reconstruction of the temperature field on the boundary of the inclusion. In each iteration step, mixed boundary value problems for the Laplace operator are solved in the semi-infinite region. Well-posedness of these problems is investigated and convergence of the procedures is discussed. For the numerical implementation of these mixed problems an efficient boundary integral method is proposed which is based on the indirect variant of the boundary integral approach. Using this approach the mixed problems are reduced to integral equations over the (bounded) boundary of the inclusion. Numerical examples are included showing that stable and accurate reconstructions of the temperature field on the boundary of the inclusion can be obtained also in the case of noisy data. These results are compared with those obtained with the alternating iterative method.

A near real-time water surface detection method based on HSV transformation of MODIS multi-Spectral time series data

In the face of global population growth and the uneven distribution of water supply, a better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources is critical. Remote sensing provides a synoptic view of ongoing processes, which addresses the intricate nature of water surfaces and allows an assessment of the pressures placed on aquatic ecosystems. However, the main challenge in identifying water surfaces from remotely sensed data is the high variability of spectral signatures, both in space and time. In the last 10 years only a few operational methods have been proposed to map or monitor surface water at continental or global scale, and each of them show limitations. The objective of this study is to develop and demonstrate the adequacy of a generic multi-temporal and multi-spectral image analysis method to detect water surfaces automatically, and to monitor them in near-real-time. The proposed approach, based on a transformation of the RGB color space into HSV, provides dynamic information at the continental scale. The validation of the algorithm showed very few omission errors and no commission errors. It demonstrates the ability of the proposed algorithm to perform as effectively as human interpretation of the images. The validation of the permanent water surface product with an independent dataset derived from high resolution imagery, showed an accuracy of 91.5% and few commission errors. Potential applications of the proposed method have been identified and discussed. The methodology that has been developed 27 is generic: it can be applied to sensors with similar bands with good reliability, and minimal effort. Moreover, this experiment at continental scale showed that the methodology is efficient for a large range of environmental conditions. Additional preliminary tests over other continents indicate that the proposed methodology could also be applied at the global scale without too many difficulties

Potential for broad range multiplexing of fibre Bragg gratings in polymer optical fibres and operation in the 700-nm wavelength range

Refractive index and structural characteristics of optical polymers are strongly influenced by the thermal history of the material. Polymer optical fibres (POF) are drawn under tension, resulting in axial orientation of the polymer molecular chains due to their susceptibility to align in the fibre direction. This change in orientation from the drawing process results in residual strain in the fibre and also affects the transparency and birefringence of the material (1-3). PMMA POF has failure strain as high as over 100%. POF has to be drawn under low tension to achieve this value. The drawing tension affects the magnitude of molecular alignment along the fibre axis, thus affecting the failure strain. The higher the tension the lower the failure stain will be. However, the properties of fibre drawn under high tension can approach that of fibre drawn under low tension by means of an annealing process. Annealing the fibre can generally optimise the performance of POF while keeping most advantages intact. Annealing procedures can reduce index difference throughout the bulk and also reduce residual stress that may cause fracture or distortion. POF can be annealed at temperatures approaching the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the polymer to produce FBG with a permanent blue Bragg wave-length shift at room temperature. At this elevated temperature segmental motion in the structure results in a lower viscosity. The material softens and the molecular chains relax from the axial orientation causing shrinking of the fibre. The large attenuation of typically 1dB/cm in the 1550nm spectral region of PMMA POF has limited FBG lengths to less than 10cm. The more expensive fluorinated polymers with lower absorption have had no success as FBG waveguides. Bragg grating have been inscribed onto various POF in the 800nm spectral region using a 30mW continuous wave 325nm helium cadmium laser, with a much reduced attenuation coefficient of 10dB/m (5). Fabricating multiplexed FBGs in the 800nm spectral region in TOPAS and PMMA POF consistently has lead to fabrication of multiplexed FBG in the 700nm spectral region by a method of prolonged annealing. The Bragg wavelength shift of gratings fabricated in PMMA fibre at 833nm and 867nm was monitored whilst the POF was thermally annealed at 80°C. Permanent shifts exceeding 80nm into the 700nm spectral region was attained by both gratings on the fibre. The large permanent shift creates the possibility of multiplexed Bragg sensors operating over a broad range. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Pellerin C, Prud'homme RE, Pézolet M. Effect of thermal history on the molecular orientation in polystyrene/poly (vinyl methyl ether) blends. Polymer. 2003;44(11):3291-7. 2. Dvoránek L, Machová L, Šorm M, Pelzbauer Z, Švantner J, Kubánek V. Effects of drawing conditions on the properties of optical fibers made from polystyrene and poly (methyl methacrylate). Die Angewandte Makromolekulare Chemie. 1990;174(1):25-39. 3. Dugas J, Pierrejean I, Farenc J, Peichot JP. Birefringence and internal stress in polystyrene optical fibers. Applied optics. 1994;33(16):3545-8. 4. Jiang C, Kuzyk MG, Ding JL, Johns WE, Welker DJ. Fabrication and mechanical behavior of dye-doped polymer optical fiber. Journal of applied physics. 2002;92(1):4-12. 5. Johnson IP, Webb DJ, Kalli K, Yuan W, Stefani A, Nielsen K, et al., editors. Polymer PCF Bragg grating sensors based on poly (methyl methacrylate) and TOPAS cyclic olefin copolymer2011: SPIE.

Two different operation regimes of fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation:passive mode-locking and multiwavelength emission

We have proposed and demonstrated a nonlinear polarization-rotation-based fiber laser with two different operation states: passive mode-locking and multiwavelength emission. The intensity-dependent transmission or loss induced by nonlinear polarization rotation accounts for the distinct operation regimes. Our experiment results indicate that both passively mode-locked pulses and continuous-wave multiwavelength can be generated from the same fiber laser just through adjusting polarizations. Another characteristic of the current multiwavelength laser is that the used periodic filter is a birefringence fiber filter, which facilitates all-fiber integration of the fiber laser, so it is a potential multifunction laser source with all-fiber configuration and convenient manipulation. © 2008 IEEE.

A new method for respiratory-volume monitoring based on long-period fibre gratings

Respiratory-volume monitoring is an indispensable part of mechanical ventilation. Here we present a new method of the respiratory-volume measurement based on a single fibre-optical long-period sensor of bending and the correlation between torso curvature and lung volume. Unlike the commonly used air-flow based measurement methods the proposed sensor is drift-free and immune to air-leaks. In the paper, we explain the working principle of sensors, a two-step calibration-test measurement procedure and present results that establish a linear correlation between the change in the local thorax curvature and the change of the lung volume. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of these sensors with respect to the current standards. © 2013 IEEE.

Risk-based model aids selection of pipeline inspection, maintenance strategies

The existing method of pipeline monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, wastes time and is expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been developed. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction method and logical insurance plans.The risk-based model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to identify factors that influence failure on specific segments and analyze their effects by determining the probabilities of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis, which establishes the effect of a failure in terms of cost caused by each risk factor and determines the cumulative effect of failure through probability analysis.

Optimization method for PSA-based multi-level regenerators

We develop an analytical methodology for optimizing phase regeneration based on phase sensitive amplification. The results demonstrate the scalability of the scheme and show the significance of simultaneous optimization of transfer function and the signal alphabet.

Identifying candidate subunit vaccines using an alignment-independent method based on principal amino acid properties

Subunit vaccine discovery is an accepted clinical priority. The empirical approach is time- and labor-consuming and can often end in failure. Rational information-driven approaches can overcome these limitations in a fast and efficient manner. However, informatics solutions require reliable algorithms for antigen identification. All known algorithms use sequence similarity to identify antigens. However, antigenicity may be encoded subtly in a sequence and may not be directly identifiable by sequence alignment. We propose a new alignment-independent method for antigen recognition based on the principal chemical properties of protein amino acid sequences. The method is tested by cross-validation on a training set of bacterial antigens and external validation on a test set of known antigens. The prediction accuracy is 83% for the cross-validation and 80% for the external test set. Our approach is accurate and robust, and provides a potent tool for the in silico discovery of medically relevant subunit vaccines.