Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

New solid base catalysts for biodiesel synthesis

The application of heterogeneous catalysts for the manufacture of renewable biodiesel fuels offers an exciting, alternative clean chemical technology to current energy intensive processes employing soluble base catalysts. We recently synthesised tuneable MgO nanocrystals as efficent solid base catalysts for biodiesel synthesis, and have developed a simple X-ray spectroscopic method to quantitatively determine surface basicity, thereby providing a rapid screening tool for predicting the reactivity of new solid base catalysts. Promotion of these MgO nanocrystals through Cs doping dramatically enhances biodiesel production rates due to the formaion of a mixed Cs Mg(CO ) phase. These MgO derived nanocatalysts permit energy efficent, continuous processing of diverse, sustainable oil feedstocks in flow reactors.

Innovation and the survival of new firms across British regions

This paper analyses the survival of the complete cohort of more than 162,000 limited companies incorporated in Britain in 2001 over the subsequent five-year period. For this purpose, we estimate firms' hazards of failure and survival functions using nonparametric and semi-parametric techniques. The paper focuses on two important policy-related issues.The first is to what extent survival rates vary across regions in Britain. A second, and related, policy issue concerns innovation. The data available allows us to look at the intellectual property (IP) activity of all British firms, including that of the 162,000 new firms in 2001. The results indicate substantial differences in survival rates across regions, and also that IP activity is associated with a higher probability of survival. These differences across regions, and the importance of IP activity, remain when we condition on a large range of regional, industry and firm-level characteristics shifting firms' hazards of failure.

Resource enclavity and corporate social responsibility in Sub-Saharan Africa:the case of oil production in Ghana

Why has Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) yielded such disappointing outcomes in oil-rich sub-Saharan Africa? Over the past decades, a sizable body of literature has emerged which draws attention to the shortcomings of oil-related development and complementary CSR exercises in the region. Most critiques on the topic, however, assess specific interventions and/or policies but fail to evaluate the complex decision-making processes, dictated heavily by setting, which produce such actions altogether. This thesis attributes CSR outcomes in oil-rich sub-Saharan Africa to the unique context in which the decisions underpinning actions take place. In doing so, the analysis borrows ideas from a diverse body of literature spanning the international development, accounting, management and political science disciplines. To explore these ideas further, the thesis focuses on the case of Ghana. The most recent “addition” to sub-Saharan Africa’s oil club, Ghana provides a rare glimpse of how decisions underpinning CSR have been identified, evolved and reshaped from the outset. To provide a comprehensive picture of CSR in the sector and its impacts at the local level, interviews and focus groups were conducted with a range of stakeholder groups. As is the case throughout sub-Saharan Africa, in Ghana, oil production occurs in offshore “enclaves”, which are disconnected geographically from local communities. This thesis argues that these dynamics have important implications for CSR. Findings point to companies also being disconnected ideologically from local development needs, which, in part explains the questionable CSR that has become such a contentious issue in the debate on oil and development in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. The enclave-type setting in which oil production occurs appears to have stifled creativity and innovation in the area of CSR. This, along with institutional weaknesses, regulatory deficiencies and the Government of Ghana’s failure to adequately respond to local-level concerns, has produced these outcomes.

Cyberstalking:a new challenge for criminal law

Cyberstalking has recently emerged as a new and growing problem and is an area that will probably receive a higher profile within criminal law as more cases reach court (see Griffiths, 1999; Griffiths, Rogers and Sparrow, 1998; Bojic and McFarlane, 2002a; 2002b). For the purposes of this article we define cyberstalking as the use of information and communications technology (in particular the Internet) in order to harass individuals. Such harassment may include actions such as the transmission of offensive e-mail messages, identity theft and damage to data or equipment. Whilst a more comprehensive definition has been presented elsewhere (Bocij and McFarlane, 2002), it is hoped that the definition here is sufficient for those unfamiliar with this field. The stereotypical stalker conjures up images of someone harassing a victim who is the object of their affection. However, not all stalking incidents are motivated by unrequited love. Stalking can also be motivated by hate, a need for revenge, a need for power and/or racism. Similarly, cyberstalking can involve acts that begin with the issuing of threats and end in physical assault. We also make distinctions between conventional stalking and cyberstalking. Whilst some may view cyberstalking as an extension of conventional stalking, we believe cyberstalking should be regarded as an entirely new form of deviant behaviour. It is not surprising that cyberstalking is sometimes thought of as a trivial problem. A number of writers and researchers have suggested that cyberstalking and associated activities are of little genuine concern. Koch (2000), for example, goes as far as accusing those interested in cyberstalking as promoting hysteria over a problem that may be minuscule or even imaginary. The impression gained is that cyberstalking represents a relatively small problem where victims seldom suffer any real harm. Whilst there are no genuinely reliable statistics that can be used to determine how common cyberstalking incidents are, a great deal of evidence is available to show that cyberstalking is a significant and growing problem (Griffiths et al, 1998). For instance, CyberAngels (a well-known Internet safety organization) receives some 500 complaints of cyberstalking each day, of which up to 100 represent legitimate cases (Dean, 2000). Another Internet safety organization (Working to Halt Online Abuse) reports receiving an average of 100 cases per week (WHOA, 2001). To highlight the types of cyberstalking behaviours that take place and some of the major issues facing criminal law, we briefly examine four high profile cases of cyberstalking (adapted from Bocij and MacFarlane, 2002b).

New insights in the deactivation of sulfonic modified SBA-15 catalysts for biodiesel production from low-grade oleaginous feedstock

Arenesulfonic-acid functionalized SBA-15 materials have been used in the production of biodiesel from low grade oleaginous feedstock. These materials display an outstanding catalytic activity, being able to promote the transformation of crude palm oil with methanol into fatty acid methyl esters with high yield (85%) under mild reaction conditions. However, high sensitivity of the catalyst against poisoning by different substances has also been detected. Thus, alkaline metal cations, such as sodium or potassium exert a negative influence on the catalytic activity of these materials, being necessary amounts around 500 ppm of sodium in the reaction media to decrease the catalytic activity of these materials to a half of its initial value in just two reaction runs. The deactivation of arenesulfonic acid functionalized SBA-15 materials seems to occur in this case by ion exchange of the acid protons at the sulfonic groups. Organic unsaponifiable compounds like lecithin or retinol also induce a negative influence in the catalytic activity of these sulfonic acid-based materials, though not so intense as in the case of alkaline metals. The deactivating mechanism associated to the influence of the organic compounds seems to be linked to the adsorption of such substances onto the catalytic acid sites as well as on the silica surface. The accumulation of lecithin in the surface of catalyst, observed by means of thermogravimetric analysis, suggest the creation of a strong interaction, probably by ion pair, between this compound and the sulfonic acid group.

Precompetitive data sharing as a catalyst to address unmet needs in Parkinson's disease

Parkinson's disease is a complex heterogeneous disorder with urgent need for disease-modifying therapies. Progress in successful therapeutic approaches for PD will require an unprecedented level of collaboration. At a workshop hosted by Parkinson's UK and co-organized by Critical Path Institute's (C-Path) Coalition Against Major Diseases (CAMD) Consortiums, investigators from industry, academia, government and regulatory agencies agreed on the need for sharing of data to enable future success. Government agencies included EMA, FDA, NINDS/NIH and IMI (Innovative Medicines Initiative). Emerging discoveries in new biomarkers and genetic endophenotypes are contributing to our understanding of the underlying pathophysiology of PD. In parallel there is growing recognition that early intervention will be key for successful treatments aimed at disease modification. At present, there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of disease progression and the many factors that contribute to disease progression heterogeneity. Novel therapeutic targets and trial designs that incorporate existing and new biomarkers to evaluate drug effects independently and in combination are required. The integration of robust clinical data sets is viewed as a powerful approach to hasten medical discovery and therapies, as is being realized across diverse disease conditions employing big data analytics for healthcare. The application of lessons learned from parallel efforts is critical to identify barriers and enable a viable path forward. A roadmap is presented for a regulatory, academic, industry and advocacy driven integrated initiative that aims to facilitate and streamline new drug trials and registrations in Parkinson's disease.

Novel method for the determination of water content and higher heating value of pyrolysis oil

This research provides a novel approach for the determination of water content and higher heating value of pyrolysis oil. Pyrolysis oil from Napier grass was used in this study. Water content was determined with pH adjustment using a Karl Fischer titration unit. An equation for actual water in the oil was developed and used, and the results were compared with the traditional Karl Fischer method. The oil was found to have between 42 and 64% moisture under the same pyrolysis condition depending on the properties of the Napier grass prior to the pyrolysis. The higher heating value of the pyrolysis oil was determined using an oil-diesel mixture, and 20 to 25 wt% of the oil in the mixture gave optimum and stable results. A new model was developed for evaluation of higher heating value of dry pyrolysis oil. The dry oil has higher heating values in the range between 19 and 26 MJ/kg. The developed protocols and equations may serve as a reliable alternative means for establishing the actual water content and the higher heating value of pyrolysis oil.

Thermal stability of sewage sludge pyrolysis oil

The stability of the oil phase obtained from intermediate pyrolysis process was used for this investigation. The analysis was based on standard methods of determining kinematic viscosity, gas - chromatography / mass - spectrometry for compositional changes, FT-IR for functional group, Karl Fischer titration for water content and bomb calorimeter for higher heaating values. The methods were used to determine changes that occurred during ageing. The temperatures used for thermal testing were 60 °C and 80 °C for the periods of 72 and 168 h. Methanol and biodiesel were used as solvents for the analysis. The bio-oil samples contained 10 % methanol, 10 % Biodiesel, 20 % Biodiesel and unstabilised pyrolysis oil. The tests carried out at 80 °C showed drastic changes compared to those at 60 °C. The bio-oil samples containing 20 % biodiesel proved to be more stable than those with 10 % methanol. The unstabilised pyrolysis oil showed the greatest changes in viscosity, composition change and highest increase in water content. The measurement of kinematic viscosity and gas chromatograph mass spectrometry were found to be more reliable for predicting the ageing process.