How unlucky is 25-sigma?

Purpose - To identify the likelihood of a 25-standard deviation occurring in stock prices over several successive days, in the light of comments by David Viniar, chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs.. Design/methodology/approach - Assumes a bell-curve of market losses and graphs the probability of an event relative to the number of deviations. Calculates using MATLAB for sigmas over 7. Considers whether the losses of US investment banks in 2008 were the result of bad luck or of incompetence. Findings - Finds that the probability of a 25-sigma event is every 100,000 +130 decimal points years. Practical implications - Argues that bad luck is usually associated with incompetence, and investors need not choose between them. Originality/value - Presents the mathematical absurdity of a finance officer's statement, and its implications.

The primary amine metabolite of sibutramine stimulates lipolysis in adipocytes isolated from lean and obese mice and in isolated human adipocytes

Sibutramine is a satiety-inducing serotonin-noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor that acts predominantly via its primary and secondary metabolites. This study investigates the possibility that sibutramine and/or its metabolites could act directly on white adipose tissue to increase lipolysis. Adipocytes were isolated by a collagenase digestion procedure from homozygous lean (+/+) and obese-diabetic ob/ob mice, and from lean nondiabetic human subjects. The lipolytic activity of adipocyte preparations was measured by the determination of glycerol release over a 2-hour incubation period. The primary amine metabolite of sibutramine M2, caused a concentration-dependent stimulation of glycerol release by murine lean and obese adipocytes (maximum increase by 157 ± 22 and 245 ± 1696, respectively, p < 0.05). Neither sibutramine nor its secondary amine metabolite M1 had any effect on lipolytic activity. Preliminary studies indicated that M2-induced lipolysis was mediated via a beta-adrenergic action. The non-selective beta-adrenoceptor antagonist propranolol (10-6M) strongly inhibited M2-stimulated lipolysis in lean and obese murine adipocytes. M2 similarly increased lipolysis by isolated human omental and subcutaneous adipocytes (maximum increase by 194 ± 33 and 136 ± 4%, respectively, p < 0.05) with EC50 values of 12 nM and 3 nM, respectively. These results indicate that the sibutramine metabolite M2 can act directly on murine and human adipose tissue to increase lipolysis via a pathway involving beta-adrenoceptors. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart.

Towards the strategic adoption of Lean in aviation Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) industry:an empirical study into the industry's Lean status

Purpose - Despite many Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) organisations alluding their positive business performances to the adoption Lean initiatives, there is a paucity of direct literature that validates this assertion. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to study empirically via the use of an industry-wide survey to establish and extent of Lean adoption and to verify its suitability in mitigating prevalent MRO challenges. Design/methodology/approach - The empirical study contained in this paper is facilitated by an industry-wide survey to collect data from several firms across the MRO spectrum. The analysed responses from industry leaders, professionals and executives synthesised with existing literature was used in ascertaining the extent of Lean adoption within the operational framework of the industry. Findings - The empirical study helped in validating the suitability of Lean in MRO context. However, it was also observed that the focus of its application was skewed towards its production-orientated functions more than its service-orientated functions. Nonetheless, this paper presents results of the positive influence of Lean in MRO context. Research limitations/implications - This empirical study presented in this paper was carried out within a framework of key characteristics of operation. Although this approach is sufficient in assessing the industry's Lean status, further assessment can also be achieved within the context of relevant performance metrics which was not included in this paper. Practical implications - By exploring the industry's Lean status within the context of operational characteristics of operation, this study provides MRO practitioners with more awareness into some of the critical factors required for successful holistic Lean realisation. Social implications - The state-of-the-art of Lean within the aviation MRO context established through this research also contributes to the wider product-centric service environment by providing a platform that facilitates strategy development which ensures Lean success within this environment. Originality/value - Apart from validating the suitability of Lean in MRO contexts, by establishing the extent of Lean adoption within the context of the operational framework, this paper provides a clearer insight as to how successful Lean implementation can be achieved via a holistic implementation strategy balanced between the product-centric and service-centric aspects of the industry.

Revisiting the lean agile paradigm:an empirical study in the aerospace industry

Much has been written about the potential impact of Lean Agile paradigm on firm's supply chain performance. However, most of the existing studies mainly pointed out Lean is for cost reduction, whereas Agility is for attaining flexibility. There are little empirical studies in literature that examined how Lean Agile paradigm impacts on supply chain performance. This paper aims to address this gap by studying the influence of Lean and Agility paradigms on a single commodity supply chain delivery performance in the aerospace industry. Data was collected from four separate 'Rigid pipes' supply chains to study how manufacturing alignment impacts on the delivery performance. Implications of the study to practitioners and academia are discussed and future research outlined.