Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises:a time varying coefficient approach

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility persistence and volatility spillover structure. Using daily data from several key stock market indices, the results of our bivariate GARCH models show the existence of time varying correlations as well as time varying shock and volatility spillovers between the returns of FTSE and DAX, and those of NIKKEI and Hang Seng, which became more prominent during the recent financial crisis. Our theoretical considerations on the time varying model which provides the platform upon which we integrate our multifaceted empirical approaches are also of independent interest. In particular, we provide the general solution for time varying asymmetric GARCH specifications, which is a long standing research topic. This enables us to characterize these models by deriving, first, their multistep ahead predictors, second, the first two time varying unconditional moments, and third, their covariance structure.

A Bayesian approach to modeling the conditional density of the inverse controller

The inverse controller is traditionally assumed to be a deterministic function. This paper presents a pedagogical methodology for estimating the stochastic model of the inverse controller. The proposed method is based on Bayes' theorem. Using Bayes' rule to obtain the stochastic model of the inverse controller allows the use of knowledge of uncertainty from both the inverse and the forward model in estimating the optimal control signal. The paper presents the methodology for general nonlinear systems. For illustration purposes, the proposed methodology is applied to linear Gaussian systems. © 2004 IEEE.

Bureaucratic reform in post-Asian crisis Indonesia:the Directorate General of Tax

Our research examines a key aspect of the extensive bureaucratic reform program that was applied to the Indonesian public sector following the Asian Economic crisis. The organisation we focus on is the Indonesian Directorate of Tax. The reforms moved the case organisation towards more bureaucratic organisational arrangements. The most notable elements of the reforms related to the organisational efficiency and changes in administrative style and culture. An ethnographic approach was adopted, in which the researcher was immersed in the life of the selected case organisation over an extended period of time. This research extends a thin literature on the topic of management control and culture in the Indonesian context. Also, this paper fills a gap in the theoretic approaches for studying bureaucracy, which is dominated by western conceptualisations. This paper provides a reminder to policy makers (including organisation such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund) of the consequences of neglecting cultural influences when conducting bureaucratic reform.

Lattice approach to the dynamics of the DPSK-encoded soliton trains

We study the dynamical properties of the RZ-DPSK encoded sequences, focusing on the instabilities in the soliton train leading to the distortions of the information transmitted. The problem is reformulated within the framework of complex Toda chain model which allows one to carry out the simplified description of the optical soliton dynamics. We elucidate how the bit composition of the pattern affects the initial (linear) stage of the train dynamics and explain the general mechanisms of the appearance of unstable collective soliton modes. Then we discuss the nonlinear regime using asymptotic properties of the pulse stream at large propagation distances and analyze the dynamical behavior of the train classifying different scenarios for the pattern instabilities. Both approaches are based on the machinery of Hermitian and non-Hermitian lattice analysis. © 2010 IEEE.