A world full of surprises:Bayesian theory of surprise to quantify degrees of uncertainty

In the specific area of software engineering (SE) for self-adaptive systems (SASs) there is a growing research awareness about the synergy between SE and artificial intelligence (AI). However, just few significant results have been published so far. In this paper, we propose a novel and formal Bayesian definition of surprise as the basis for quantitative analysis to measure degrees of uncertainty and deviations of self-adaptive systems from normal behavior. A surprise measures how observed data affects the models or assumptions of the world during runtime. The key idea is that a "surprising" event can be defined as one that causes a large divergence between the belief distributions prior to and posterior to the event occurring. In such a case the system may decide either to adapt accordingly or to flag that an abnormal situation is happening. In this paper, we discuss possible applications of Bayesian theory of surprise for the case of self-adaptive systems using Bayesian dynamic decision networks. Copyright © 2014 ACM.

An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts

Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context.

On the theory of autosoliton propagation in optical fibers guided by in-line nonlinear devices

A theoretical model is developed to describe the propagation of ultra-short optical pulses in fiber transmission systems in the quasi-linear regime, with periodically inserted in-line lumped nonlinear optical devices. Stable autosoliton solutions are obtained for a particular application of the general theory.

Building theory at the intersection of ecological sustainability and strategic management

This article builds theory at the intersection of ecological sustainability and strategic management literature—specifically, in relation to dynamic capabilities literature. By combining industrial organization economics–based, resource-based, and dynamic capability–based views, it is possible to develop a better understanding of the strategies that businesses may follow, depending on their managers’ assumptions about ecological sustainability. To develop innovative strategies for ecological sustainability, the dynamic capabilities framework needs to be extended. In particular, the sensing–seizing–maintaining competitiveness framework should operate not only within the boundaries of a business ecosystem but in relation to global biophysical ecosystems; in addition, two more dynamic capabilities should be added, namely, remapping and reaping. This framework can explicate core managerial beliefs about ecological sustainability. Finally, this approach offers opportunities for managers and academics to identify, categorize, and exploit business strategies for ecological sustainability.

An intervention encouraging planned self-regulation and goal setting in drivers across the lifespan:testing an extended theory of planned behaviour

Previous work has demonstrated that planning behaviours may be more adaptive than avoidance strategies in driving self-regulation, but ways of encouraging planning have not been investigated. The efficacy of an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) plus implementation intention based intervention to promote planning self-regulation in drivers across the lifespan was tested. An age stratified group of participants (N=81, aged 18-83 years) was randomly assigned to an experimental or control condition. The intervention prompted specific goal setting with action planning and barrier identification. Goal setting was carried out using an agreed behavioural contract. Baseline and follow-up measures of TPB variables, self-reported, driving self-regulation behaviours (avoidance and planning) and mobility goal achievements were collected using postal questionnaires. Like many previous efforts to change planned behaviour by changing its predictors using models of planned behaviour such as the TPB, results showed that the intervention did not significantly change any of the model components. However, more than 90% of participants achieved their primary driving goal, and self-regulation planning as measured on a self-regulation inventory was marginally improved. The study demonstrates the role of pre-decisional, or motivational components as contrasted with post-decisional goal enactment, and offers promise for the role of self-regulation planning and implementation intentions in assisting drivers in achieving their mobility goals and promoting safer driving across the lifespan, even in the context of unchanging beliefs such as perceived risk or driver anxiety.

Are there theory of mind regions in the brain? A review of the neuroimaging literature

There have been many functional imaging studies of the brain basis of theory of mind (ToM) skills, but the findings are heterogeneous and implicate anatomical regions as far apart as orbitofrontal cortex and the inferior parietal lobe. The functional imaging studies are reviewed to determine whether the diverse findings are due to methodological factors. The studies are considered according to the paradigm employed (e.g., stories vs. cartoons and explicit vs. implicit ToM instructions), the mental state(s) investigated, and the language demands of the tasks. Methodological variability does not seem to account for the variation in findings, although this conclusion may partly reflect the relatively small number of studies. Alternatively, several distinct brain regions may be activated during ToM reasoning, forming an integrated functional "network." The imaging findings suggest that there are several "core" regions in the network-including parts of the prefrontal cortex and superior temporal sulcus-while several more "peripheral" regions may contribute to ToM reasoning in a manner contingent on relatively minor aspects of the ToM task. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

On the theory of the modulation instability in optical fiber and laser amplifiers

The modulation instability (MI) in optical fiber amplifiers and lasers with anomalous dispersion leads to CW beam breakup and the growth of multiple pulses. This can be both a detrimental effect, limiting the performance of amplifiers, and also an underlying physical mechanism in the operation of MI-based devices. Here we revisit the analytical theory of MI in fiber optical amplifiers. The results of the exact theory are compared with the previously used adiabatic approximation model, and the range of applicability of the latter is determined. The same technique is applicable to the study of spatial MI in solid state laser amplifiers and MI in non-uniform media. © 2011 SPIE.

Representation, control, or reasoning? Distinct functions for theory of mind within the medial prefrontal cortex

The medial pFC (mPFC) is frequently reported to play a central role in Theory of Mind (ToM). However, the contribution of this large cortical region in ToM is not well understood. Combining a novel behavioral task with fMRI, we sought to demonstrate functional divisions between dorsal and rostral mPFC. All conditions of the task required the representation of mental states (beliefs and desires). The level of demands on cognitive control (high vs. low) and the nature of the demands on reasoning (deductive vs. abductive) were varied orthogonally between conditions. Activation in dorsal mPFC was modulated by the need for control, whereas rostral mPFC was modulated by reasoning demands. These findings fit with previously suggested domain-general functions for different parts of mPFC and suggest that these functions are recruited selectively in the service of ToM.

On the theory of the modulation instability in optical fiber amplifiers

The modulation instability (MI) in optical fiber amplifiers and lasers with anomalous dispersion leads to cw radiation breakup. This can be both a detrimental effect limiting the performance of amplifiers and an underlying physical mechanism in the operation of MI-based devices. Here we revisit the analytical theory of MI in fiber optical amplifiers. The results of the exact theory are compared with the previously used adiabatic approximation model, and the range of applicability of the latter is determined. © 2010 Optical Society of America.

Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses:predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Purpose: To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. Method: A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Results: Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34. ±. 12. years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (p. <. 0.01); HBM was less predictive with only the severity (past behaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (p. <. 0.05). Conclusions: Non-compliance with DDCLs replacement is widespread, affecting 1 out of 4 Italian wearers. Results from the TPB model show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention.

Do gender and year of study affect the ability of the theory of planned behaviour to predict binge-drinking intentions and episodes?

Background: The present study tested the utility of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), augmented with anticipated regret, as a model to predict binge-drinking intentions and episodes among female and male undergraduates and undergraduates in different years of study. Method: Undergraduate students (N = 180, 54 males, 126 females, 60 per year of study) completed baseline measures of demographic variables, binge-drinking episodes (BDE), TPB constructs and anticipated regret. BDE were assessed one-week later. Results: The TPB accounted for 60% of the variance in female undergraduates' intentions and 54% of the variance in male undergraduates' intentions. The TPB accounted for 57% of the variance in intentions in first-year undergraduates, 63% of the variance in intentions in second-year undergraduates and 68% of the variance in intentions in final-year undergraduates. Follow-up BDE was predicted by intentions and baseline BDE for female undergraduates as well as second- and final-year undergraduates. Baseline BDE predicted male undergraduates’ follow-up BDE and first-year undergraduates’ follow-up BDE. Conclusion: Results show that while the TPB constructs predict undergraduates’ binge-drinking intentions, intentions only predict BDE in female undergraduates, second- and final-year undergraduates. Implications of these findings for interventions to reduce binge drinking are outlined.

Prospect theory and the effects of bankruptcy laws on entrepreneurial aspirations

We apply prospect theory to explain how personal and corporate bankruptcy laws affect risk perceptions of entrepreneurs at time of entry and therefore their growth ambitions. Previous theories have reached ambiguous conclusions as to whether countries with more debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws (i.e. laws that are more forgiving towards debtors in bankruptcy proceedings) are likely to have more entrepreneurs, or whether, creditorfriendly regimes have positive effects on new ventures via enhanced incentives for the supply of credit to entrepreneurs. Responding to this ambiguity, we apply prospect theory to propose that entrepreneurs do not attach the same significance to different elements of bankruptcy codes—and to explain which aspects of debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws matter more to entrepreneurs. Based on this, we derive and confirm hypotheses about the impact of aspects of bankruptcy codes on entrepreneurial activity using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor combined with data on both personal and corporate bankruptcyregulations for 15 developed OECD countries. We use multilevel random coefficient logistic regressions to take account of the hierarchical nature of the data (country and individual levels). Because entrepreneurs and creditors are sensitive to different elements of the codes, there is scope for optimisation of the legal design of bankruptcy law to achieve both an adequate supply of credit and to encourage high-ambition entrepreneurship.