Exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control problem

This work introduces a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. Convergence of the output error for the proposed control method is verified by using a Lyapunov function. Several simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed control method. The manner in which such a method is extended to nonlinear multi-variable systems with different delays between the input-output pairs is considered and demonstrated through simulation examples.

Micromechanics of agglomerate damage processes

This thesis reports a detailed investigation of the micromechanics of agglomerate behaviour under free-fall impact, double (punch) impact and diametrical compression tests using the simulation software TRUBAL. The software is based on the discrete element method (DEM) which incorporates the Newtonian equations of motion and contact mechanics theory to model the interparticle interactions. Four agglomerates have been used: three dense (differing in interface energy and contact density) and one loose. Although the simulated agglomerates are relatively coarse-grained, the results obtained are in good agreement with laboratory test results reported in the literature. The computer simulation results show that, in all three types of test, the loose agglomerate cannot fracture as it is unable to store sufficient elastic energy. Instead, it becomes flattened for low loading-rates and shattered or crushed at higher loading-rates. In impact tests, the dense agglomerates experience only local damage at low impact velocities. Semi-brittle fracture and fragmentation are produced over a range of higher impact velocities and at very high impact velocities shattering occurs. The dense agglomerates fracture in two or three large fragments in the diametrical compression tests. Local damage at the agglomerate-platen interface always occurs prior to fracture and consists of local bond breakage (microcrack formation) and local dislocations (compaction). The fracture process is dynamic and much more complex than that suggested by continuum fracture mechanics theory. Cracks are always initiated from the contact zones and propagate towards the agglomerate centre. Fracture occurs a short time after the start of unloading when a fracture crack "selection" process takes place. The detailed investigation of the agglomerate damage processes includes an examination of the evolution of the fracture surface. Detailed comparisons of the behaviour of the same agglomerate in all three types of test are presented. The particle size distribution curves of the debris are also examined, for both free-fall and double impact tests.

Cholinesterase inhibitors for dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson's disease dementia and cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease

Background - Previous Cochrane reviews have considered the use of cholinesterase inhibitors in both Parkinson's disease with dementia (PDD) and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). The clinical features of DLB and PDD have much in common and are distinguished primarily on the basis of whether or not parkinsonism precedes dementia by more than a year. Patients with both conditions have particularly severe deficits in cortical levels of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine. Therefore, blocking its breakdown using cholinesterase inhibitors may lead to clinical improvement. Objectives - To assess the efficacy, safety and tolerability of cholinesterase inhibitors in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), Parkinson’s disease with dementia (PDD), and cognitive impairment in Parkinson’s disease falling short of dementia (CIND-PD) (considered as separate phenomena and also grouped together as Lewy body disease). Search methods - The trials were identified from a search of ALOIS, the Specialised Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group (on 30 August 2011) using the search terms Lewy, Parkinson, PDD, DLB, LBD. This register consists of records from major healthcare databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL) and many ongoing trial databases and is updated regularly. Reference lists of relevant studies were searched for additional trials. Selection criteria - Randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials assessing the efficacy of treatment with cholinesterase inhibitors in DLB, PDD and cognitive impairment in Parkinson’s disease (CIND-PD). Data collection and analysis - Data were extracted from published reports by one review author (MR). The data for each 'condition' (that is DLB, PDD or CIND-PD) were considered separately and, where possible, also pooled together. Statistical analysis was conducted using Review Manager version 5.0. Main results - Six trials met the inclusion criteria for this review, in which a total of 1236 participants were randomised. Four of the trials were of a parallel group design and two cross-over trials were included. Four of the trials included participants with a diagnosis of Parkinson's disease with dementia (Aarsland 2002a; Dubois 2007; Emre 2004; Ravina 2005), of which Dubois 2007 remains unpublished. Leroi 2004 included patients with cognitive impairment and Parkinson's disease (both with and without dementia). Patients with dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) were included in only one of the trials (McKeith 2000). For global assessment, three trials comparing cholinesterase inhibitor treatment to placebo in PDD (Aarsland 2002a; Emre 2004; Ravina 2005) reported a difference in the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study-Clinical Global Impression of Change (ADCS-CGIC) score of -0.38, favouring the cholinesterase inhibitors (95% CI -0.56 to -0.24, P < 0.0001). For cognitive function, a pooled estimate of the effect of cholinesterase inhibitors on cognitive function measures was consistent with the presence of a therapeutic benefit (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.34, 95% CI -0.46 to -0.23, P < 0.00001). There was evidence of a positive effect of cholinesterase inhibitors on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in patients with PDD (WMD 1.09, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.73, P = 0.0008) and in the single PDD and CIND-PD trial (WMD 1.05, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.68, P = 0.01) but not in the single DLB trial. For behavioural disturbance, analysis of the pooled continuous data relating to behavioural disturbance rating scales favoured treatment with cholinesterase inhibitors (SMD -0.20, 95% CI -0.36 to -0.04, P = 0.01). For activities of daily living, combined data for the ADCS and the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) activities of daily living rating scales favoured treatment with cholinesterase inhibitors (SMD -0.20, 95% CI -0.38 to -0.02, P = 0.03). For safety and tolerability, those taking a cholinesterase inhibitor were more likely to experience an adverse event (318/452 versus 668/842; odds ratio (OR) 1.64, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.15, P = 0.0003) and to drop out (128/465 versus 45/279; OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.33 to 2.84, P = 0.0006). Adverse events were more common amongst those taking rivastigmine (357/421 versus 173/240; OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.38, P < 0.0001) but not those taking donepezil (311/421 versus 145/212; OR 1.24, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.80, P = 0.25). Parkinsonian symptoms in particular tremor (64/739 versus 12/352; OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.44 to 5.09, P = 0.002), but not falls (P = 0.39), were reported more commonly in the treatment group but this did not have a significant impact on the UPDRS (total and motor) scores (P = 0.71). Fewer deaths occurred in the treatment group than in the placebo group (4/465 versus 9/279; OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.84, P = 0.03). Authors' conclusions - The currently available evidence supports the use of cholinesterase inhibitors in patients with PDD, with a positive impact on global assessment, cognitive function, behavioural disturbance and activities of daily living rating scales. The effect in DLB remains unclear. There is no current disaggregated evidence to support their use in CIND-PD.

A simulation of an ERP implementation with informal processes

This paper presents a discrete event simulation study to examine tenancy service performance in a shopping centre. The study aims to provide an understanding of how informal management mechanisms could enhance existing ERP systems. The research shows the potential benefits of combining the traditional strengths of ERP in providing better performance in terms of efficiency with the ability to react with flexibility to customer's requests. © 2012 SIMULATION COUNCILS, INC.

Exploration of metaphors used by Indonesian legislators and political elites in the Indonesian sociopolitical domain

This thesis examines the ways Indonesian politicians exploit the rhetorical power of metaphors in the Indonesian political discourse. The research applies the Conceptual Metaphor Theory, Metaphorical Frame Analysis and Critical Discourse Analysis to textual and oral data. The corpus comprises: 150 political news articles from two newspapers (Harian Kompas and Harian Waspada, 2010-2011 edition), 30 recordings of two television news and talk-show programmes (TV-One and Metro-TV), and 20 interviews with four legislators, two educated persons and two laymen. For this study, a corpus of written bahasa Indonesia was also compiled, which comprises 150 texts of approximately 439,472 tokens. The data analysis shows the potential power of metaphors in relation to how politicians communicate the results of their thinking, reasoning and meaning-making through language and discourse and its social consequences. The data analysis firstly revealed 1155 metaphors. These metaphors were then classified into the categories of conventional metaphor, cognitive function of metaphor, metaphorical mapping and metaphor variation. The degree of conventionality of metaphors is established based on the sum of expressions in each group of metaphors. Secondly, the analysis revealed that metaphor variation is influenced by the broader Indonesian cultural context and the natural and physical environment, such as the social dimension, the regional, style and the individual. The mapping system of metaphor is unidirectionality. Thirdly, the data show that metaphoric thought pervades political discourse in relation to its uses as: (1) a felicitous tool for the rhetoric of political leaders, (2) part of meaning-making that keeps the discourse contexts alive and active, and (3) the degree to which metaphor and discourse shape the conceptual structures of politicians‟ rhetoric. Fourthly, the analysis of data revealed that the Indonesian political discourse attempts to create both distance and solidarity towards general and specific social categories accomplished via metaphorical and frame references to the conceptualisations of us/them. The result of the analysis shows that metaphor and frame are excellent indicators of the us/them categories which work dialectically in the discourse. The acts of categorisation via metaphors and frames at both textual and conceptual level activate asymmetrical concepts and contribute to social and political hierarchical constructs, i.e. WEAKNESS vs.POWER, STUDENT vs. TEACHER, GHOST vs. CHOSEN WARRIOR, and so on. This analysis underscores the dynamic nature of categories by documenting metaphorical transfers between, i.e. ENEMY, DISEASE, BUSINESS, MYSTERIOUS OBJECT and CORRUPTION, LAW, POLITICS and CASE. The metaphorical transfers showed that politicians try to dictate how they categorise each other in order to mobilise audiences to act on behalf of their ideologies and to create distance and solidarity.

Molecular dynamics simulation of methane in sodium montmorillonite clay hydrates at elevated pressures and temperatures

Computer simulation has been used to study the structure and dynamics of methane in hydrated sodium montmorillonite clays under conditions encountered in sedimentary basins. Systems containing approximately one, two, three and four molecular layers of water have followed gradients of 150 bar km-1 and 30Kkm-1, to a maximum burial depth of 6 km (900 bar and 460 K). Methane is coordinated to approximately 19 oxygen atoms, of which typically 6 are provided by the clay surface. Only in the three- and four-layer hydrates is methane able to leave the clay surface. Diffusion depends strongly on the porosity (water content) and burial depth: self-diffusion coefficients are in the range 0.12 × 10-9m2s-1 for water and 0.04 × 10−9m2s−1 < D < 8.64 × 10−9m2s−1 for methane. Bearing in mind that porosity decreases with burial depth, it is estimated that maximum diffusion occurs at around 3 km. This is in good agreement with the known location of methane reservoirs in sedimentary basins.

The 2012 update to the anticholinergic cognitive burden scale

Background: In 2008, the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale was generated through a combination of laboratory data, literature review, and expert opinion. This scale identified an increased risk in mortality and worsening cognitive function in multiple populations, including 13,000 older adults in the United Kingdom. We present an updated scale based on new information and new medications available to the market. Methods: We conducted a systematic review for publications recognizing medications with adverse cognitive effects due to anti-cholinergic properties and found no new medications since 2008.Therefore we identified medications from a review of newly ap-proved medications since 2008 and medications identified throughthe clinical experience of the authors. To be included in the updatedACB scale, medications must have met the following criteria; ACBscore of 1: evidence from in vitro data that the medication has antag-onist activity at muscarinic receptors; ACB score of 2: evidence fromliterature, prescriber’s information, or expert opinion of clinical anti-cholinergic effect; ACB score of 3: evidence from literature, pre-scriber’s information, or expert opinion of the medication causingdelirium. Results: The reviewer panel included two geriatric pharmacists,one geriatric psychiatrist, one geriatrician, and one hospitalist.Twenty-three medications were eligible for review and possible inclu-sion in the updated ACB scale. Of these, seven medications were ex-cluded due to a lack of evidence for anticholinergic activity. Of the re-maining 16 medications, ten had laboratory evidence ofanticholinergic activity and added to the ACB list with a score of one.One medication was added with a score of two. Five medicationswere included in the ACB scale with a score of three.Conclusions: The revised ACB scale provides an update of med-ications with anticholinergic effects that may increase the risk of cog-nitive impairment. Future updates will be routinely conducted tomaintain an applicable library of medications for use in clinical andresearch environments.

Transition from community dwelling to retirement village in older adults:cognitive functioning and psychological health outcomes

Supported living and retirement villages are becoming a significant option for older adults with impairments, with independence concerns or for forward planning in older age, but evidence as to psychological benefits for residents is sparse. This study examined the hypothesis that the multi-component advantages of moving into a supported and physically and socially accessible “extra care” independent living environment will impact on psychological and functioning measures. Using an observational longitudinal design, 161 new residents were assessed initially and three months later, in comparison to 33 older adults staying in their original homes. Initial group differences were apparent but some reduced after three months. Residents showed improvement in depression, perceived health, aspects of cognitive function, and reduced functional limitations, while controls showed increased functional limitations (worsening). Ability to recall specific autobiographical memories, known to be related to social-problem solving, depression and functioning in social relationships, predicted change in communication limitations, and cognitive change predicted changes in recreational limitations. Change in anxiety and memory predicted change in depression. Findings suggest that older adults with independent living concerns who move to an independent but supported environment can show significant benefits in psychological outcomes and reduction in perceived impact of health on functional limitations in a short period. Targets for focussed rehabilitation are indicated, but findings also validate development of untargeted general supportive environments.

Bioactive sol-gel glasses at the atomic scale:the complementary use of advanced probe and computer modeling methods

Sol-gel-synthesized bioactive glasses may be formed via a hydrolysis condensation reaction, silica being introduced in the form of tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS), and calcium is typically added in the form of calcium nitrate. The synthesis reaction proceeds in an aqueous environment; the resultant gel is dried, before stabilization by heat treatment. These materials, being amorphous, are complex at the level of their atomic-scale structure, but their bulk properties may only be properly understood on the basis of that structural insight. Thus, a full understanding of their structure-property relationship may only be achieved through the application of a coherent suite of leading-edge experimental probes, coupled with the cogent use of advanced computer simulation methods. Using as an exemplar a calcia-silica sol-gel glass of the kind developed by Larry Hench, in the memory of whom this paper is dedicated, we illustrate the successful use of high-energy X-ray and neutron scattering (diffraction) methods, magic-angle spinning solid-state NMR, and molecular dynamics simulation as components to a powerful methodology for the study of amorphous materials.