Design of a stock control methodology for use within an oil blending company

The thesis deals with the background, development and description of a mathematical stock control methodology for use within an oil and chemical blending company, where demand and replenishment lead-times are generally non-stationary. The stock control model proper relies on, as input, adaptive forecasts of demand determined for an economical forecast/replenishment period precalculated on an individual stock-item basis. The control procedure is principally that of the continuous review, reorder level type, where the reorder level and reorder quantity 'float', that is, each changes in accordance with changes in demand. Two versions of the Methodology are presented; a cost minimisation version and a service level version. Realising the importance of demand forecasts, four recognised variations of the Trigg and Leach adaptive forecasting routine are examined. A fifth variation, developed, is proposed as part of the stock control methodology. The results of testing the cost minimisation version of the Methodology with historical data, by means of a computerised simulation, are presented together with a description of the simulation used. The performance of the Methodology is in addition compared favourably to a rule-of-thumb approach considered by the Company as an interim solution for reducing stack levels. The contribution of the work to the field of scientific stock control is felt to be significant for the following reasons:- (I) The Methodology is designed specifically for use with non-stationary demand and for this reason alone appears to be unique. (2) The Methodology is unique in its approach and the cost-minimisation version is shown to work successfully with the demand data presented. (3) The Methodology and the thesis as a whole fill an important gap between complex mathematical stock control theory and practical application. A brief description of a computerised order processing/stock monitoring system, designed and implemented as a pre-requisite for the Methodology's practical operation, is presented as an appendix.

Substances hazardous to health:the nature of the expertise associated with competent risk assessment

This research investigated expertise in hazardous substance risk assessment (HSRA). Competent pro-active risk assessment is needed to prevent occupational ill-health caused by hazardous substance exposure occurring in the future. In recent years there has been a strong demand for HSRA expertise and a shortage of expert practitioners. The discipline of Occupational Hygiene was identified as the key repository of knowledge and skills for HSRA and one objective of this research was to develop a method to elicit this expertise from experienced occupational hygienists. In the study of generic expertise, many methods of knowledge elicitation (KE) have been investigated, since this has been relevant to the development of 'expert systems' (thinking computers). Here, knowledge needed to be elicited from human experts, and this stage was often a bottleneck in system development, since experts could not explain the basis of their expertise. At an intermediate stage, information collected was used to structure a basic model of hazardous substance risk assessment activity (HSRA Model B) and this formed the basis of tape transcript analysis in the main study with derivation of a 'classification' and a 'performance matrix'. The study aimed to elicit the expertise of occupational hygienists and compare their performance with other health and safety professionals (occupational health physicians, occupational health nurses, health and safety practitioners and trainee health and safety inspectors), as evaluated using the matrix. As a group, the hygienists performed best in the exercise, and this group were particularly good at process elicitation and at recommending specific control measures, although the other groups also performed well in selected aspects of the matrix and the work provided useful findings and insights. From the research, two models of HSRA have been derived, an HSRA aid, together with a novel videotape KE technique and interesting research findings. The implications of this are discussed with respect to future training of HS professionals and wider application of the videotape KE method.

Knowledge engineering for mental-health risk assessment and decision support

Mental-health risk assessment practice in the UK is mainly paper-based, with little standardisation in the tools that are used across the Services. The tools that are available tend to rely on minimal sets of items and unsophisticated scoring methods to identify at-risk individuals. This means the reasoning by which an outcome has been determined remains uncertain. Consequently, there is little provision for: including the patient as an active party in the assessment process, identifying underlying causes of risk, and eecting shared decision-making. This thesis develops a tool-chain for the formulation and deployment of a computerised clinical decision support system for mental-health risk assessment. The resultant tool, GRiST, will be based on consensual domain expert knowledge that will be validated as part of the research, and will incorporate a proven psychological model of classication for risk computation. GRiST will have an ambitious remit of being a platform that can be used over the Internet, by both the clinician and the layperson, in multiple settings, and in the assessment of patients with varying demographics. Flexibility will therefore be a guiding principle in the development of the platform, to the extent that GRiST will present an assessment environment that is tailored to the circumstances in which it nds itself. XML and XSLT will be the key technologies that help deliver this exibility.

Trait emotional intelligence facilitates responses to a social gambling task

The present study examines facilitative effects of trait emotional intelligence on decision making in a socially moderated, financial context. One hundred participants completed the trait emotional intelligence questionnaire and a computerised gambling card game, designed to simulate financial decision making. The results show that participants scoring high on the sociability factors made significantly better decisions in certain card game conditions compared to lower scoring counterparts. Results are discussed in light of dual-process theories.

Evaluating the effect of splitting cylindrical power on improving patient tolerance to toric lens misalignment

Purpose: Evaluating the impact of splitting toric power on patient tolerance to misorientation such as with intraocular lens rotation. Setting: University vision clinic. Methods: Healthy, non astigmats had +1.50D astigmatism induced with spectacle lenses at 90°, 135°, 180° and +3.00D at 90°. Two correcting cylindrical lenses of the opposite sign and half the power each were subsequently added to the trial frame misaligned by 0°, 5° or 10° in a random order and misorientated from the initial axis in a clockwise direction by up to 15° in 5° steps. A second group of adapted astigmats with between 1.00 and 3.00DC had their astigmatism corrected with two toric spectacle lenses of half the power separated by 0°, 5° or 10° and misorientated from the initial axis in both directions by up to 15° in 5° steps. Distance, high contrast visual acuity was measured using a computerised test chart at each lens misalignment and misorientation. Results: Misorientation of the split toric lenses caused a statistically significant drop in visual acuity (F= 70.341; p< 0.001). Comparatively better acuities were observed around 180°, as anticipated (F= 3.775; p= 0.035). Misaligning the split toric power produced no benefit in visual acuity retention with axis misorientation when subjects had astigmatism induced with a low (F= 2.190, p= 0.129) or high cylinder (F= 0.491, p= 0.617) or in the adapted astigmats (F= 0.120, p= 0.887). Conclusion: Misalignment of toric lens power split across the front and back lens surfaces had no beneficial effect on distance visual acuity, but also no negative effect. © 2013 British Contact Lens Association.

The Aston Medication Adherence Study:mapping the adherence patterns of an inner-city population

Background: The Aston Medication Adherence Study was designed to examine non-adherence to prescribed medicines within an inner-city population using general practice (GP) prescribing data. Objective: To examine non-adherence patterns to prescribed oralmedications within three chronic disease states and to compare differences in adherence levels between various patient groups to assist the routine identification of low adherence amongst patients within the Heart of Birmingham teaching Primary Care Trust (HoBtPCT). Setting: Patients within the area covered by HoBtPCT (England) prescribed medication for dyslipidaemia, type-2 diabetes and hypothyroidism, between 2000 and 2010 inclusively. HoBtPCT's population was disproportionately young,with seventy per cent of residents fromBlack and Minority Ethnic groups. Method: Systematic computational analysis of all medication issue data from 76 GP surgeries dichotomised patients into two groups (adherent and non-adherent) for each pharmacotherapeutic agent within the treatment groups. Dichotomised groupings were further analysed by recorded patient demographics to identify predictors of lower adherence levels. Results were compared to an analysis of a self-reportmeasure of adherence [using the Modified Morisky Scale© (MMAS-8)] and clinical value data (cholesterol values) from GP surgery records. Main outcome: Adherence levels for different patient demographics, for patients within specific longterm treatment groups. Results: Analysis within all three groups showed that for patients with the following characteristics, adherence levels were statistically lower than for others; patients: younger than 60 years of age; whose religion is coded as "Islam"; whose ethnicity is coded as one of the Asian groupings or as "Caribbean", "Other Black" and "African"; whose primary language is coded as "Urdu" or "Bengali"; and whose postcodes indicate that they live within the most socioeconomically deprived areas of HoBtPCT. Statistically significant correlations between adherence status and results from the selfreport measure of adherence and of clinical value data analysis were found. Conclusion: Using data fromGP prescribing systems, a computerised tool to calculate individual adherence levels for oral pharmacotherapy for the treatment of diabetes, dyslipidaemia and hypothyroidism has been developed.The tool has been used to establish nonadherence levels within the three treatment groups and the demographic characteristics indicative of lower adherence levels, which in turn will enable the targeting of interventional support within HoBtPCT. © Koninklijke Nederlandse Maatschappij ter bevordering der Pharmacie 2013.

Is randomisation necessary for measuring defocus curves in pre-presbyopes?

Purpose: Defocus curves are used to evaluate the subjective range of clear vision of presbyopic corrections such as in eyes implanted with accommodating intraocular lenses (IOLs). This study determines whether letter sequences and/or lens presentation order ought to be randomised when measuring defocus curves. Methods: Defocus curves (range +2.00DS to -2.00DS) were measured on 18 pre-presbyopic subjects (mean age 24.1 ± 4.2 years) for six combinations of sequential or randomised positive or negative lens progression and non-randomised or randomised letter sequences. The letters were presented on a computerised logMAR chart at 6 m. Results: Overall there was a statistically significant difference between the six combinations (ANOVA, p < 0.05) attributable to the combination of non-randomised letters with non-randomised lens progression from negative to positive defocus (p < 0.01). There was no statistically significant difference in defocus curve measurements if both letters and lens order were randomised compared to if only one of these variables was randomised (p > 0.05). Non-randomised letters, with a sequential lens progression from negative to positive, was significantly different to all other combinations when compared individually (Student's T-test, p < 0.003 on all comparisons), and was confirmed as the sole source of the overall significant difference. There was no statistically significant difference if both lens presentation order and letter sequences were randomised compared to if only one or the other of these variables was randomised. Conclusion: Non-randomised letters and non-randomised lens progression on their own did not affect the subjective amplitude of accommodation as measured by defocus curves, although their combination should be avoided. © 2007 British Contact Lens Association.

Anterior ophthalmic imaging

Improvements in imaging chips and computer processing power have brought major advances in imaging of the anterior eye. Digitally captured images can be visualised immediately and can be stored and retrieved easily. Anterior ocular imaging techniques using slitlamp biomicroscopy, corneal topography, confocal microscopy, optical coherence tomography (OCT), ultrasonic biomicroscopy, computerised tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are reviewed. Conventional photographic imaging can be used to quantify corneal topography, corneal thickness and transparency, anterior chamber depth and lateral angle and crystalline lens position, curvature, thickness and transparency. Additionally, the effects of tumours, foreign bodies and trauma can be localised, the corneal layers can be examined and the tear film thickness assessed. © 2006 The Authors.

Technological enhancements to optometric clinical tests

A sizeable amount of the testing in eye care, requires either the identification of targets such as letters to assess functional vision, or the subjective evaluation of imagery by an examiner. Computers can render a variety of different targets on their monitors and can be used to store and analyse ophthalmic images. However, existing computing hardware tends to be large, screen resolutions are often too low, and objective assessments of ophthalmic images unreliable. Recent advances in mobile computing hardware and computer-vision systems can be used to enhance clinical testing in optometry. High resolution touch screens embedded in mobile devices, can render targets at a wide variety of distances and can be used to record and respond to patient responses, automating testing methods. This has opened up new opportunities in computerised near vision testing. Equally, new image processing techniques can be used to increase the validity and reliability of objective computer vision systems. Three novel apps for assessing reading speed, contrast sensitivity and amplitude of accommodation were created by the author to demonstrate the potential of mobile computing to enhance clinical measurement. The reading speed app could present sentences effectively, control illumination and automate the testing procedure for reading speed assessment. Meanwhile the contrast sensitivity app made use of a bit stealing technique and swept frequency target, to rapidly assess a patient’s full contrast sensitivity function at both near and far distances. Finally, customised electronic hardware was created and interfaced to an app on a smartphone device to allow free space amplitude of accommodation measurement. A new geometrical model of the tear film and a ray tracing simulation of a Placido disc topographer were produced to provide insights on the effect of tear film breakdown on ophthalmic images. Furthermore, a new computer vision system, that used a novel eye-lash segmentation technique, was created to demonstrate the potential of computer vision systems for the clinical assessment of tear stability. Studies undertaken by the author to assess the validity and repeatability of the novel apps, found that their repeatability was comparable to, or better, than existing clinical methods for reading speed and contrast sensitivity assessment. Furthermore, the apps offered reduced examination times in comparison to their paper based equivalents. The reading speed and amplitude of accommodation apps correlated highly with existing methods of assessment supporting their validity. Their still remains questions over the validity of using a swept frequency sine-wave target to assess patient’s contrast sensitivity functions as no clinical test provides the range of spatial frequencies and contrasts, nor equivalent assessment at distance and near. A validation study of the new computer vision system found that the authors tear metric correlated better with existing subjective measures of tear film stability than those of a competing computer-vision system. However, repeatability was poor in comparison to the subjective measures due to eye lash interference. The new mobile apps, computer vision system, and studies outlined in this thesis provide further insight into the potential of applying mobile and image processing technology to enhance clinical testing by eye care professionals.

Clinical monitoring of ocular physiology using digital image analysis

Aim: To examine the use of image analysis to quantify changes in ocular physiology. Method: A purpose designed computer program was written to objectively quantify bulbar hyperaemia, tarsal redness, corneal staining and tarsal staining. Thresholding, colour extraction and edge detection paradigms were investigated. The repeatability (stability) of each technique to changes in image luminance was assessed. A clinical pictorial grading scale was analysed to examine the repeatability and validity of the chosen image analysis technique. Results: Edge detection using a 3 × 3 kernel was found to be the most stable to changes in image luminance (2.6% over a +60 to -90% luminance range) and correlated well with the CCLRU scale images of bulbar hyperaemia (r = 0.96), corneal staining (r = 0.85) and the staining of palpebral roughness (r = 0.96). Extraction of the red colour plane demonstrated the best correlation-sensitivity combination for palpebral hyperaemia (r = 0.96). Repeatability variability was <0.5%. Conclusions: Digital imaging, in conjunction with computerised image analysis, allows objective, clinically valid and repeatable quantification of ocular features. It offers the possibility of improved diagnosis and monitoring of changes in ocular physiology in clinical practice. © 2003 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Support tools for paediatric inpatient prescribers:a review

Prescribing support for paediatrics is diverse and includes both standard texts and electronic tools. Evidence concerning who should be supported and by what method is limited. This review aims to collate the current information available on prescribing support in paediatrics. Many tools designed to support prescribers are technology based. For example, electronic prescribing and smart phone applications. There is a focus on prescriber education both at undergraduate and postgraduate level. In the UK, the majority of inpatient prescribing is done by junior medical staff. It is important to ensure they are competent on qualification and supported in this role. A UK national prescribing assessment is being trialled to test for competence on graduation and there are also tools available to test paediatric prescribing after qualification. No information is available on the tools and resources UK prescribers currently use to support their decision making. One US study reported a decrease in the availability of paediatric prescribing information in a popular reference text. There is limited evidence to show that decisionsupport tools improve patient outcomes, however, there is growing confirmation that electronic prescribing reduces medication errors. There have been reports of new error types, such as selection errors, occurring with the use of electronic prescribing. Another concern with computerised decision-support systems is deciding what alerts should be presented to the prescriber and when/how often in order to avoid alert fatigue. There is little published concerning paediatric alerts perhaps as a consequence of commercial systems often not including paediatric specific support.

Anterior eye health recording

Aims: To survey eye care practitioners from around the world regarding their current practice for anterior eye health recording to inform guidelines on best practice. Methods: The on-line survey examined the reported use of: word descriptions, sketching, grading scales or photographs; paper or computerised record cards and whether these were guided by proforma headings; grading scale choice, signs graded, level of precision, regional grading; and how much time eye care practitioners spent on average on anterior eye health recording. Results: Eight hundred and nine eye care practitioners from across the world completed the survey. Word description (p <. 0.001), sketches (p = 0.002) and grading scales (p <. 0.001) were used more for recording the anterior eye health of contact lens patients than other patients, but photography was used similarly (p = 0.132). Of the respondents, 84.5% used a grading scale, 13.5% using two, with the original Efron (51.6%) and CCLRU/Brien-Holden-Vision-Institute (48.5%) being the most popular. The median features graded was 11 (range 1-23), frequency from 91.6% (bulbar hyperaemia) to 19.6% (endothelial blebs), with most practitioners grading to the nearest unit (47.4%) and just 14.7% to one decimal place. The average time taken to report anterior eye health was reported to be 6.8. ±. 5.7. min, with the maximum time available 14.0. ±. 11. min. Conclusions: Developed practice and research evidence allows best practice guidelines for anterior eye health recording to be recommended. It is recommended to: record which grading scale is used; always grade to one decimal place, record what you see live rather than based on how you intend to manage a condition; grade bulbar and limbal hyperaemia, limbal neovascularisation, conjunctival papillary redness and roughness (in white light to assess colouration with fluorescein instilled to aid visualisation of papillae/follicles), blepharitis, meibomian gland dysfunction and sketch staining (both corneal and conjunctival) at every visit. Record other anterior eye features only if they are remarkable, but indicate that the key tissue which have been examined.

Body iron is associated with cognitive executive planning function in college women

Evidence of the relationship between altered cognitive function and depleted Fe status is accumulating in women of reproductive age but the degree of Fe deficiency associated with negative neuropsychological outcomes needs to be delineated. Data are limited regarding this relationship in university women in whom optimal cognitive function is critical to academic success. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between body Fe, in the absence of Fe-deficiency anaemia, and neuropsychological function in young college women. Healthy, non-Anaemic undergraduate women (n 42) provided a blood sample and completed a standardised cognitive test battery consisting of one manual (Tower of London (TOL), a measure of central executive function) and five computerised (Bakan vigilance task, mental rotation, simple reaction time, immediate word recall and two-finger tapping) tasks. Women's body Fe ranged from - 4·2 to 8·1 mg/kg. General linear model ANOVA revealed a significant effect of body Fe on TOL planning time (P= 0.002). Spearman's correlation coefficients showed a significant inverse relationship between body Fe and TOL planning time for move categories 4 (r - 0.39, P= 0.01) and 5 (r - 0.47, P= 0.002). Performance on the computerised cognitive tasks was not affected by body Fe level. These findings suggest that Fe status in the absence of anaemia is positively associated with central executive function in otherwise healthy college women. Copyright © The Authors 2012.

Support for paediatric prescribers:what is discussed at hospital board level?

Prescribing support tools range from traditional printed texts to state-of-the-art computerised decision support systems. Comparison between available literature is difficult due to country-specific resources often being the focus of the research. In the UK, it is widely accepted that hospitals take their own individualised approaches to reducing prescribing errors. Objective - This study focused on specialist paediatric hospitals. It aimed to identify the localised approaches taken by paediatric hospitals to reduce prescribing errors. Method - Applied thematic analysis was used to explore the publically published board meeting minutes from the four specialist stand-alone paediatric hospitals in England. Three years of data was collected from each hospital. Codes were collected into groups to identify themes from the data. Results - The main themes identified were clinician involvement in prescribing support is important; credit card-sized reminder tools are used to provide prescribing guidance; electronic prescribing is considered important for reducing prescribing errors; feedback from clinical pharmacists on prescribing errors is widely used; junior doctors require extra support when prescribing; medical records may be incomplete and specific prescribing support (eg, antibiotic prescribing support) is widely in use. Conclusions - There is no single collaborative approach taken to paediatric prescribing support in English paediatric hospitals. Success of electronic prescribing in English paediatric hospitals is considerably behind leaders such as the USA. Use of clinical pharmacists to support prescribers is important as supported by previous studies in Spain and the USA.

Predictability of unplanned extubations

Acute life threatening events such as cardiac/respiratory arrests are often predictable in adults and children. However critical events such as unplanned extubations are considered as not predictable. This paper seeks to evaluate the ability of automated prediction systems based on feature space embedding and time series methods to predict unplanned extubations in paediatric intensive care patients. We try to exploit the trends in the physiological signals such as Heart Rate, Respiratory Rate, Systolic Blood Pressure and Oxygen saturation levels in the blood using signal processing aspects of a frame-based approach of expanding signals using a nonorthogonal basis derived from the data. We investigate the significance of the trends in a computerised prediction system. The results are compared with clinical observations of predictability. We will conclude by investigating whether the prediction capability of the system could be exploited to prevent future unplanned extubations. © 2014 IEEE.