A manufacturing systems modelling using system dynamics:forming a dedicated modelling tool

Discrete event simulation is a popular aid for manufacturing system design; however in application this technique can sometimes be unnecessarily complex. This paper is concerned with applying an alternative technique to manufacturing system design which may well provide an efficient form of rough-cut analysis. This technique is System Dynamics, and the work described in this paper has set about incorporating the principles of this technique into a computer based modelling tool that is tailored to manufacturing system design. This paper is structured to first explore the principles of System Dynamics and how they differ from Discrete Event Simulation. The opportunity for System Dynamics is then explored, and this leads to defining the capabilities that a suitable tool would need. This specification is then transformed into a computer modelling tool, which is then assessed by applying this tool to model an engine production facility. Read More: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219686703000228

A four-factor user interaction model for content-based image retrieval

In order to bridge the “Semantic gap”, a number of relevance feedback (RF) mechanisms have been applied to content-based image retrieval (CBIR). However current RF techniques in most existing CBIR systems still lack satisfactory user interaction although some work has been done to improve the interaction as well as the search accuracy. In this paper, we propose a four-factor user interaction model and investigate its effects on CBIR by an empirical evaluation. Whilst the model was developed for our research purposes, we believe the model could be adapted to any content-based search system.

Use of fundus imaging in quantification of age-related macular change

This review will discuss the use of manual grading scales, digital photography, and automated image analysis in the quantification of fundus changes caused by age-related macular disease. Digital imaging permits processing of images for enhancement, comparison, and feature quantification, and these techniques have been investigated for automated drusen analysis. The accuracy of automated analysis systems has been enhanced by the incorporation of interactive elements, such that the user is able to adjust the sensitivity of the system, or manually add and remove pixels. These methods capitalize on both computer and human image feature recognition and the advantage of computer-based methodologies for quantification. The histogram-based adaptive local thresholding system is able to extract useful information from the image without being affected by the presence of other structures. More recent developments involve compensation for fundus background reflectance, which has most recently been combined with the Otsu method of global thresholding. This method is reported to provide results comparable with manual stereo viewing. Developments in this area are likely to encourage wider use of automated techniques. This will make the grading of photographs easier and cheaper for clinicians and researchers. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction: improving manufacturing performance through technology diffusion, implementation and management

The role of technology management in achieving improved manufacturing performance has been receiving increased attention as enterprises are becoming more exposed to competition from around the world. In the modern market for manufactured goods the demand is now for more product variety, better quality, shorter delivery and greater flexibility, while the financial and environmental cost of resources has become an urgent concern to manufacturing managers. This issue of the International Journal of Technology Management addresses the question of how the diffusion, implementation and management of technology can improve the performance of manufacturing industries. The authors come from a large number of different countries and their contributions cover a wide range of topics within this general theme. Some papers are conceptual, others report on research carried out in a range of different industries including steel production, iron founding, electronics, robotics, machinery, precision engineering, metal working and motor manufacture. In some cases they describe situations in specific countries. Several are based on presentations made at the UK Operations Management Association's Sixth International Conference held at Aston University at which the conference theme was 'Achieving Competitive Edge: Getting Ahead Through Technology and People'. The first two papers deal with questions of advanced manufacturing technology implementation and management. Firstly Beatty describes a three year longitudinal field study carried out in ten Canadian manufacturing companies using CADICAM and CIM systems. Her findings relate to speed of implementation, choice of system type, the role of individuals in implementation, organization and job design. This is followed by a paper by Bessant in which he argues that a more a strategic approach should be taken towards the management of technology in the 1990s and beyond. Also considered in this paper are the capabilities necessary in order to deploy advanced manufacturing technology as a strategic resource and the way such capabilities might be developed within the firm. These two papers, which deal largely with the implementation of hardware, are supplemented by Samson and Sohal's contribution in which they argue that a much wider perspective should be adopted based on a new approach to manufacturing strategy formulation. Technology transfer is the topic of the following two papers. Pohlen again takes the case of advanced manufacturing technology and reports on his research which considers the factors contributing to successful realisation of AMT transfer. The paper by Lee then provides a more detailed account of technology transfer in the foundry industry. Using a case study based on a firm which has implemented a number of transferred innovations a model is illustrated in which the 'performance gap' can be identified and closed. The diffusion of technology is addressed in the next two papers. In the first of these, by Lowe and Sim, the managerial technologies of 'Just in Time' and 'Manufacturing Resource Planning' (or MRP 11) are examined. A study is described from which a number of factors are found to influence the adoption process including, rate of diffusion and size. Dahlin then considers the case of a specific item of hardware technology, the industrial robot. Her paper reviews the history of robot diffusion since the early 1960s and then tries to predict how the industry will develop in the future. The following two papers deal with the future of manufacturing in a more general sense. The future implementation of advanced manufacturing technology is the subject explored by de Haan and Peters who describe the results of their Dutch Delphi forecasting study conducted among a panel of experts including scientists, consultants, users and suppliers of AMT. Busby and Fan then consider a type of organisational model, 'the extended manufacturing enterprise', which would represent a distinct alternative pure market-led and command structures by exploiting the shared knowledge of suppliers and customers. The three country-based papers consider some strategic issues relating manufacturing technology. In a paper based on investigations conducted in China He, Liff and Steward report their findings from strategy analyses carried out in the steel and watch industries with a view to assessing technology needs and organizational change requirements. This is followed by Tang and Nam's paper which examines the case of machinery industry in Korea and its emerging importance as a key sector in the Korean economy. In his paper which focuses on Venezuela, Ernst then considers the particular problem of how this country can address the problem of falling oil revenues. He sees manufacturing as being an important contributor to Venezuela's future economy and proposes a means whereby government and private enterprise can co-operate in development of the manufacturing sector. The last six papers all deal with specific topics relating to the management manufacturing. Firstly Youssef looks at the question of manufacturing flexibility, introducing and testing a conceptual model that relates computer based technologies flexibility. Dangerfield's paper which follows is based on research conducted in the steel industry. He considers the question of scale and proposes a modelling approach determining the plant configuration necessary to meet market demand. Engstrom presents the results of a detailed investigation into the need for reorganising material flow where group assembly of products has been adopted. Sherwood, Guerrier and Dale then report the findings of a study into the effectiveness of Quality Circle implementation. Stillwagon and Burns, consider how manufacturing competitiveness can be improved individual firms by describing how the application of 'human performance engineering' can be used to motivate individual performance as well as to integrate organizational goals. Finally Sohal, Lewis and Samson describe, using a case study example, how just-in-time control can be applied within the context of computer numerically controlled flexible machining lines. The papers in this issue of the International Journal of Technology Management cover a wide range of topics relating to the general question of improving manufacturing performance through the dissemination, implementation and management of technology. Although they differ markedly in content and approach, they have the collective aim addressing the concepts, principles and practices which provide a better understanding the technology of manufacturing and assist in achieving and maintaining a competitive edge.

The design of a real-time nowcasting system for localised weather

National meteorological offices are largely concerned with synoptic-scale forecasting where weather predictions are produced for a whole country for 24 hours ahead. In practice, many local organisations (such as emergency services, construction industries, forestry, farming, and sports) require only local short-term, bespoke, weather predictions and warnings. This thesis shows that the less-demanding requirements do not require exceptional computing power and can be met by a modern, desk-top system which monitors site-specific ground conditions (such as temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, etc) augmented with above ground information from satellite images to produce `nowcasts'. The emphasis in this thesis has been towards the design of such a real-time system for nowcasting. Local site-specific conditions are monitored using a custom-built, stand alone, Motorola 6809 based sub-system. Above ground information is received from the METEOSAT 4 geo-stationary satellite using a sub-system based on a commercially available equipment. The information is ephemeral and must be captured in real-time. The real-time nowcasting system for localised weather handles the data as a transparent task using the limited capabilities of the PC system. Ground data produces a time series of measurements at a specific location which represents the past-to-present atmospheric conditions of the particular site from which much information can be extracted. The novel approach adopted in this thesis is one of constructing stochastic models based on the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The satellite images contain features (such as cloud formations) which evolve dynamically and may be subject to movement, growth, distortion, bifurcation, superposition, or elimination between images. The process of extracting a weather feature, following its motion and predicting its future evolution involves algorithms for normalisation, partitioning, filtering, image enhancement, and correlation of multi-dimensional signals in different domains. To limit the processing requirements, the analysis in this thesis concentrates on an `area of interest'. By this rationale, only a small fraction of the total image needs to be processed, leading to a major saving in time. The thesis also proposes an extention to an existing manual cloud classification technique for its implementation in automatically classifying a cloud feature over the `area of interest' for nowcasting using the multi-dimensional signals.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Mathematical modelling and control of agitated extraction columns

Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.

Expert systems for fault tree synthesis

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies on chemical process plants are very time consuming, and often tedious, tasks. The requirement for HAZOP studies is that a team of experts systematically analyse every conceivable process deviation, identifying possible causes and any hazards that may result. The systematic nature of the task, and the fact that some team members may be unoccupied for much of the time, can lead to tedium, which in turn may lead to serious errors or omissions. An aid to HAZOP are fault trees, which present the system failure logic graphically such that the study team can readily assimilate their findings. Fault trees are also useful to the identification of design weaknesses, and may additionally be used to estimate the likelihood of hazardous events occurring. The one drawback of fault trees is that they are difficult to generate by hand. This is because of the sheer size and complexity of modern process plants. The work in this thesis proposed a computer-based method to aid the development of fault trees for chemical process plants. The aim is to produce concise, structured fault trees that are easy for analysts to understand. Standard plant input-output equation models for major process units are modified such that they include ancillary units and pipework. This results in a reduction in the nodes required to represent a plant. Control loops and protective systems are modelled as operators which act on process variables. This modelling maintains the functionality of loops, making fault tree generation easier and improving the structure of the fault trees produced. A method, called event ordering, is proposed which allows the magnitude of deviations of controlled or measured variables to be defined in terms of the control loops and protective systems with which they are associated.

An Investigation into the adoption and implementation of computer aided production management systems:using the Rogers model of adoption and implementation and a social constuctionist account of technology

The research investigates the processes of adoption and implementation, by organisations, of computer aided production management systems (CAPM). It is organised around two different theoretical perspectives. The first part is informed by the Rogers model of the diffusion, adoption and implementation of innovations, and the second part by a social constructionist approach to technology. Rogers' work is critically evaluated and a model of adoption and implementation is distilled from it and applied to a set of empirical case studies. In the light of the case study data, strengths and weaknesses of the model are identified. It is argued that the model is too rational and linear to provide an adequate explanation of adoption processes. It is useful for understanding processes of implementation but requires further development. The model is not able to adequately encompass complex computer based technologies. However, the idea of 'reinvention' is identified as Roger's key concept but it needs to be conceptually extended. Both Roger's model and definition of CAPM found in the literature from production engineering tend to treat CAPM in objectivist terms. The problems with this view are addressed through a review of the literature on the sociology of technology, and it is argued that a social constructionist approach offers a more useful framework for understanding CAPM, its nature, adoption, implementation, and use. CAPM it is argued, must be understood on terms of the ways in which it is constituted in discourse, as part of a 'struggle for meaning' on the part of academics, professional engineers, suppliers, and users.

Business implications of manufacturing innovation : the experience of increasing automation in smaller to medium sized companies.

Despite the considerable potential of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT) for improving the economic performance of many firms, a growing body of literature highlights many instances where realising this potential has proven to be a more difficult task than initially envisaged. Focussing upon the implementation of new manufacturing technologies in several smaller to medium sized enterprises (SME), the research examines the proposition that many of these problems can be attributed in part to inadequate consideration of the integrated nature of such technologies, where the effects of their implementation are not localised, but are felt throughout a business. The criteria for the economic evaluation of such technologies are seen as needing to reflect this, and the research develops an innovative methodology employing micro-computer based spreadsheets, to demonstrate how a series of financial models can be used to quantify the effects of new investments upon overall company performance. Case studies include: the development of a prototype machine based absorption costing system to assist in the evaluation of CNC machine tool purchases in a press making company; the economics and strategy of introducing a flexible manufacturing system for the production of ballscrews; and analysing the progressive introduction of computer based printing presses in a packaging and general print company. Complementary insights are also provided from discussion with the management of several other companies which have experienced technological change. The research was conducted as a collaborative CASE project in the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme and was jointly funded by the SERC and Gaydon Technology Limited and later assisted by PE-Inbucon. The findings of the research shows that the introduction of new manufacturing technologies usually requires a fundamental rethink of the existing practices of a business. In particular, its implementation is seen as ideally needing to take place as part of a longer term business and manufacturing strategy, but that short term commercial pressures and limited resources often mean that firms experience difficulty in realising this. The use of a spreadsheet based methodology is shown to be of considerable assistance in evaluating new investments, and is seen as being the limit of sophistication that a smaller business is willing to employ. Several points for effective modelling practice are also given, together with an outline of the context in which a modelling approach is most applicable.

Individual differences in human-computer interaction

This thesis initially presents an 'assay' of the literature pertaining to individual differences in human-computer interaction. A series of experiments is then reported, designed to investigate the association between a variety of individual characteristics and various computer task and interface factors. Predictor variables included age, computer expertise, and psychometric tests of spatial visualisation, spatial memory, logical reasoning, associative memory, and verbal ability. These were studied in relation to a variety of computer-based tacks, including: (1) word processing and its component elements; (ii) the location of target words within passages of text; (iii) the navigation of networks and menus; (iv) command generation using menus and command line interfaces; (v) the search and selection of icons and text labels; (vi) information retrieval. A measure of self-report workload was also included in several of these experiments. The main experimental findings included: (i) an interaction between spatial ability and the manipulation of semantic but not spatial interface content; (ii) verbal ability being only predictive of certain task components of word processing; (iii) age differences in word processing and information retrieval speed but not accuracy; (iv) evidence of compensatory strategies being employed by older subjects; (v) evidence of performance strategy differences which disadvantaged high spatial subjects in conditions of low spatial information content; (vi) interactive effects of associative memory, expertise and command strategy; (vii) an association between logical reasoning and word processing but not information retrieval; (viii) an interaction between expertise and cognitive demand; and (ix) a stronger association between cognitive ability and novice performance than expert performance.

An evaluation of pharmacy education and pre-registration training

This thesis covers two major aspects of pharmacy education; undergraduate education and pre-registration training. A cohort of pharmacy graduates were surveyed over a period of four years, on issues related to undergraduate education, pre-registration training and continuing education. These graduates were the first-ever to sit the pre-registration examination. In addition, the opinions of pre-registration tutors were obtained on pre-registration training, during the year that competence-based assessment was introduced. It was concluded that although the undergraduate course provided a broad base of knowledge suitable for graduates in all branches of pharmacy, several issues were identified which would require attention in future developments of the course. These were: 1. the strong support for the expansion of clinical, social and practice-based teaching. 2. the strong support to retain the scientific content to the same extent as in the three-year course. 3. a greater use of problem-based learning methods. The graduates supported the provision of a pre-registration continuing education course to help prepare for the examination and in areas inadequately covered in the undergraduate course. There was also support for the introduction of some form of split branch training. There was no strong evidence to suggest that the training had been an application of undergraduate education. In general, competence-based training was well regarded by tutors as an appropriate and effective method of skill assessment. However, community tutors felt it was difficult to carry out effectively due to day-to-day time constraints. The assistant tutors in hospital pharmacy were found to have a very important role in provision of training, and should be adequately trained and supported. The study recommends the introduction of uniform training and a quality assurance mechanism for all tutors and assistants undertaking this role.

Predicting and diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment process by Bayesian Belief Networks

Diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment, like diagnosis of most problems, requires bi-directional plausible reasoning. This means that both predictive (from causes to symptoms) and diagnostic (from symptoms to causes) inferences have to be made, depending on the evidence available, in reasoning for the final diagnosis. The use of computer technology for the purpose of diagnosing faults in the wastewater process has been explored, and a rule-based expert system was initiated. It was found that such an approach has serious limitations in its ability to reason bi-directionally, which makes it unsuitable for diagnosing tasks under the conditions of uncertainty. The probabilistic approach known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) was then critically reviewed, and was found to be well-suited for diagnosis under uncertainty. The theory and application of BBNs are outlined. A full-scale BBN for the diagnosis of faults in a wastewater treatment plant based on the activated sludge system has been developed in this research. Results from the BBN show good agreement with the predictions of wastewater experts. It can be concluded that the BBNs are far superior to rule-based systems based on certainty factors in their ability to diagnose faults and predict systems in complex operating systems having inherently uncertain behaviour.

A study of the micro-mechanics of granular media

The development of more realistic constitutive models for granular media, such as sand, requires ingredients which take into account the internal micro-mechanical response to deformation. Unfortunately, at present, very little is known about these mechanisms and therefore it is instructive to find out more about the internal nature of granular samples by conducting suitable tests. In contrast to physical testing the method of investigation used in this study employs the Distinct Element Method. This is a computer based, iterative, time-dependent technique that allows the deformation of granular assemblies to be numerically simulated. By making assumptions regarding contact stiffnesses each individual contact force can be measured and by resolution particle centroid forces can be calculated. Then by dividing particle forces by their respective mass, particle centroid velocities and displacements are obtained by numerical integration. The Distinct Element Method is incorporated into a computer program 'Ball'. This program is effectively a numerical apparatus which forms a logical housing for this method and allows data input and output, and also provides testing control. By using this numerical apparatus tests have been carried out on disc assemblies and many new interesting observations regarding the micromechanical behaviour are revealed. In order to relate the observed microscopic mechanisms of deformation to the flow of the granular system two separate approaches have been used. Firstly a constitutive model has been developed which describes the yield function, flow rule and translation rule for regular assemblies of spheres and discs when subjected to coaxial deformation. Secondly statistical analyses have been carried out using data which was extracted from the simulation tests. These analyses define and quantify granular structure and then show how the force and velocity distributions use the structure to produce the corresponding stress and strain-rate tensors.

Development of an electric heat pump for domestic use

This thesis records the design and development of an electrically driven, air to water, vapour compression heat pump of nominally 6kW heat output, for residential space heating. The study was carried out on behalf of GEC Research Ltd through the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme at Aston University. A computer based mathematical model of the vapour compression cycle was produced as a design aid, to enable the effects of component design changes or variations in operating conditions to be predicted. This model is supported by performance testing of the major components, which revealed that improvements in the compressor isentropic efficiency offer the greatest potential for further increases in cycle COPh. The evaporator was designed from first principles, and is based on wire-wound heat transfer tubing. Two evaporators, of air side area 10.27 and 16.24m2, were tested in a temperature and humidity controlled environment, demonstrating that the benefits of the large coil are greater heat pump heat output and lower noise levels. A systematic study of frost growth rates suggested that this problem is most severe at the conditions of saturated air at 0oC combined with low condenser water temperature. A dynamic simulation model was developed to predict the in-service performance of the heat pump. This study confirmed the importance of an adequate radiator area for heat pump installations. A prototype heat pump was designed and manufactured, consisting of a hermetic reciprocating compressor, a coaxial tube condenser and a helically coiled evaporator, using Refrigerant 22. The prototype was field tested in a domestic environment for one and a half years. The installation included a comprehensive monitoring system. Initial problems were encountered with defrosting and compressor noise, both of which were solved. The unit then operated throughout the 1985/86 heating season without further attention, producing a COPh of 2.34.