Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Secretin family (Class B) G protein-coupled receptors - from molecular to clinical perspectives

Family B G protein-coupled receptors represent an important but under-researched group of receptors. This edition of the British Journal of Pharmacology considers the roles and pharmacology of a number of these receptors. Whilst common themes emerge, it is clear that more work is needed to understand the details of each receptor in order to properly exploit them therapeutically.

Teamwork for product innovation in Taiwanese family firms:an indigenous psychology perspective: An indigenous psychology

As the existing team literature mostly excludes context and culture, little is known about how these elements affect real-life team working (Engestrom, 2008; Salas & Wildman, 2009), and how teams work in non-Western settings, such as in Chinese firms (Phan, Zhou, & Abrahamson, 2010).This research addresses this issue by investigating how new product design (NPD) teams use team working to carry out product innovation in the context of Chinese family businesses (CFBs) via an indigenous psychology perspective. Unlike mainstream teamwork literature which mostly employs an etic design, an indigenous psychology perspective adopts an emic approach which places emphasis on understanding real-life phenomena in context through a cultural-insider perspective (Kim, 2000). Compatible with this theoretical position, a multiple qualitative case study approach was used as the research methodology. Three qualitative case studies were carried out in three longstanding family-run manufacturing firms in Taiwan, where family firms have been the pillars of high economic growth in the past five decades (W.-w. Chu, 2009). Two salient findings were established across the three case studies. First, the team processes identified across the three family firms are very similar with the exception of owners’ involvement and on-the-job training. All three family firms’ NPD teams are managed in a highly hierarchical manner, with considerable emphasis placed on hierarchical ranking, cost-effectiveness, efficiency, practicability, and interpersonal harmony. Second, new products developed by CFBNPD teams are mostly incremental innovation or copycat innovation, while radical or original products are rare. In many ways, CFBNPD teams may not be the ideal incubators for innovation. This is because several aspects of their unique context can cast constraints on how they work and innovate, and thus limit the ratio of radical innovation. A multi-level review into the facilitators and inhibitors of creativity or innovation in CFBNPD teams is provided. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings and the limitations of the study are also addressed.

The dark side of the internet:protecting yourself and your family from online criminals

In less than a decade, personal computers have become part of our daily lives. Many of us come into contact with computers every day, whether at work, school or home. As useful as the new technologies are, they also have a darker side. By making computers part of our daily lives, we run the risk of allowing thieves, swindlers, and all kinds of deviants directly into our homes. Armed with a personal computer, a modem and just a little knowledge, a thief can easily access confidential information, such as details of bank accounts and credit cards. This book helps people avoid harm at the hands of Internet criminals. It offers a tour of the more dangerous parts of the Internet, as the author explains who the predators are, their motivations, how they operate and how to protect against them. In less than a decade, personal computers have become part of our daily lives. Many of us come into contact with computers every day, whether at work, school or home. As useful as the new technologies are, they also have a darker side. By making computers part of our daily lives, we run the risk of allowing thieves, swindlers, and all kinds of deviants directly into our homes. Armed with a personal computer, a modem and just a little knowledge, a thief can easily access confidential information, such as details of bank accounts and credit cards. This book is intended to help people avoid harm at the hands of Internet criminals. It offers a tour of the more dangerous parts of the Internet, as the author explains who the predators are, their motivations, how they operate and how to protect against them. Behind the doors of our own homes, we assume we are safe from predators, con artists, and other criminals wishing us harm. But the proliferation of personal computers and the growth of the Internet have invited these unsavory types right into our family rooms. With a little psychological knowledge a con man can start to manipulate us in different ways. A terrorist can recruit new members and raise money over the Internet. Identity thieves can gather personal information and exploit it for criminal purposes. Spammers can wreak havoc on businesses and individuals. Here, an expert helps readers recognize the signs of a would-be criminal in their midst. Focusing on the perpetrators, the author provides information about how they operate, why they do it, what they hope to do, and how to protect yourself from becoming a victim.

Modeling of the spectrum in a random distributed feedback fiber laser within the power balance modes

The simplest model for a description of the random distributed feedback (RDFB) Raman fiber laser is a power balance model describing the evolution of the intensities of the waves over the fiber length. The model predicts well the power performances of the RDFB fiber laser including the generation threshold, the output power and pump and generation wave intensity distributions along the fiber. In the present work, we extend the power balance model and modify equations in such a way that they describe now frequency dependent spectral power density instead of integral over the spectrum intensities. We calculate the generation spectrum by using the depleted pump wave longitudinal distribution derived from the conventional power balance model. We found the spectral balance model to be sufficient to account for the spectral narrowing in the RDFB laser above the threshold of the generation. © 2014 SPIE.

Modulation of cholesterol in midlife affords cognitive advantage during ageing - a role for altered redox balance

General practitioners, geriatricians, neurologists and health care professionals all over the world will be facing by 2040 the diagnostic, therapeutic and socioeconomic challenges of over 80 million people with dementia. Dementia is one of the most common diseases in the elderly which drastically affects daily life and everyday personal activities, is often associated with behavioural symptoms, personality change and numerous clinical complications and increases the risk for urinary incontinence, hip fracture, and - most markedly - the dependence on nursing care. The costs of care for patients with dementia are therefore immense. Serum cholesterol levels above 6.5 mmol/L are known to be associated with an increased RR of 1.5 and 2.1 to develop Alzheimeŕs disease, the most common form of dementia, and a reduction of serum cholesterol in midlife is associated with a lowered dementia risk. The aim of this work is to critically discuss some of the main results reported recently in the literature in this respect and to provide the pathophysiological rationale for the control of dyslipidemia in the prevention of dementia onset and progression.