Uncertainty analysis in the Model Web

This thesis provides a set of tools for managing uncertainty in Web-based models and workflows.To support the use of these tools, this thesis firstly provides a framework for exposing models through Web services. An introduction to uncertainty management, Web service interfaces,and workflow standards and technologies is given, with a particular focus on the geospatial domain.An existing specification for exposing geospatial models and processes, theWeb Processing Service (WPS), is critically reviewed. A processing service framework is presented as a solutionto usability issues with the WPS standard. The framework implements support for Simple ObjectAccess Protocol (SOAP), Web Service Description Language (WSDL) and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), allowing models to be consumed by a variety of tools and software. Strategies for communicating with models from Web service interfaces are discussed, demonstrating the difficultly of exposing existing models on the Web. This thesis then reviews existing mechanisms for uncertainty management, with an emphasis on emulator methods for building efficient statistical surrogate models. A tool is developed to solve accessibility issues with such methods, by providing a Web-based user interface and backend to ease the process of building and integrating emulators. These tools, plus the processing service framework, are applied to a real case study as part of the UncertWeb project. The usability of the framework is proved with the implementation of aWeb-based workflow for predicting future crop yields in the UK, also demonstrating the abilities of the tools for emulator building and integration. Future directions for the development of the tools are discussed.

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The development of appropriate lab-based evaluation techniques for mobile technologies requires continued research attention. In particular, experimental design needs to account for the environmental context in which such technologies will ultimately be used. This requires, in part, that relevant environmental distractions be incorporated into evaluations. This chapter reflects on different techniques that were used in three separate lab-based mobile evaluation experiments to present visual distractions to participants and to measure the participants’ cognizance of the distractions during the course of mobile evaluations of technology. The different techniques met the different needs of the three studies with respect to the fidelity of the data captured, the impact of acknowledging distractions on the evaluation task, and the typical context of use for the technology being evaluated. The results of the studies showed that the introduction of visual distractions did have an impact on the experimental task and indicate that future work is required in this area.

Designing mobile technologies for individuals with disabilities

While mobile devices offer many innovative possibilities to help increase the standard of living for individuals with disabilities and other special needs, the process of developing assistive technology, such that it will be effective across a group of individuals with a particular disability, can be extremely challenging. This chapter discusses key issues and trends related to designing and evaluating mobile assistive technology for individuals with disabilities. Following an overview of general design process issues, we argue (based on current research trends) that individuals with disabilities and domain experts be involved throughout the development process. While this, in itself, presents its own set of challenges, many strategies have successfully been used to overcome the difficulties and maximize the contributions of users and experts alike. Guidelines based on these strategies are discussed and are illustrated with real examples from one of our active research projects.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling in drug delivery

The application of pharmacokinetic modelling within the drug development field essentially allows one to develop a quantitative description of the temporal behaviour of a compound of interest at a tissue/organ level, by identifying and defining relationships between a dose of a drug and dependent variables. In order to understand and characterise the pharmacokinetics of a drug, it is often helpful to employ pharmacokinetic modelling using empirical or mechanistic approaches. Pharmacokinetic models can be developed within mathematical and statistical commercial software such as MATLAB using traditional mathematical and computation coding, or by using the Simbiology Toolbox available within MATLAB for a graphical user interface approach to developing pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. For formulations dosed orally, a prerequisite for clinical activity is the entry of the drug into the systemic circulation.

Visual data mining: integrating machine learning with information visualization

Today, the data available to tackle many scientific challenges is vast in quantity and diverse in nature. The exploration of heterogeneous information spaces requires suitable mining algorithms as well as effective visual interfaces. Most existing systems concentrate either on mining algorithms or on visualization techniques. Though visual methods developed in information visualization have been helpful, for improved understanding of a complex large high-dimensional dataset, there is a need for an effective projection of such a dataset onto a lower-dimension (2D or 3D) manifold. This paper introduces a flexible visual data mining framework which combines advanced projection algorithms developed in the machine learning domain and visual techniques developed in the information visualization domain. The framework follows Shneiderman’s mantra to provide an effective user interface. The advantage of such an interface is that the user is directly involved in the data mining process. We integrate principled projection methods, such as Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) and Hierarchical GTM (HGTM), with powerful visual techniques, such as magnification factors, directional curvatures, parallel coordinates, billboarding, and user interaction facilities, to provide an integrated visual data mining framework. Results on a real life high-dimensional dataset from the chemoinformatics domain are also reported and discussed. Projection results of GTM are analytically compared with the projection results from other traditional projection methods, and it is also shown that the HGTM algorithm provides additional value for large datasets. The computational complexity of these algorithms is discussed to demonstrate their suitability for the visual data mining framework.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

Approximating differentiable relationships between delay embedded dynamical systems with radical basis functions

This thesis is about the study of relationships between experimental dynamical systems. The basic approach is to fit radial basis function maps between time delay embeddings of manifolds. We have shown that under certain conditions these maps are generically diffeomorphisms, and can be analysed to determine whether or not the manifolds in question are diffeomorphically related to each other. If not, a study of the distribution of errors may provide information about the lack of equivalence between the two. The method has applications wherever two or more sensors are used to measure a single system, or where a single sensor can respond on more than one time scale: their respective time series can be tested to determine whether or not they are coupled, and to what degree. One application which we have explored is the determination of a minimum embedding dimension for dynamical system reconstruction. In this special case the diffeomorphism in question is closely related to the predictor for the time series itself. Linear transformations of delay embedded manifolds can also be shown to have nonlinear inverses under the right conditions, and we have used radial basis functions to approximate these inverse maps in a variety of contexts. This method is particularly useful when the linear transformation corresponds to the delay embedding of a finite impulse response filtered time series. One application of fitting an inverse to this linear map is the detection of periodic orbits in chaotic attractors, using suitably tuned filters. This method has also been used to separate signals with known bandwidths from deterministic noise, by tuning a filter to stop the signal and then recovering the chaos with the nonlinear inverse. The method may have applications to the cancellation of noise generated by mechanical or electrical systems. In the course of this research a sophisticated piece of software has been developed. The program allows the construction of a hierarchy of delay embeddings from scalar and multi-valued time series. The embedded objects can be analysed graphically, and radial basis function maps can be fitted between them asynchronously, in parallel, on a multi-processor machine. In addition to a graphical user interface, the program can be driven by a batch mode command language, incorporating the concept of parallel and sequential instruction groups and enabling complex sequences of experiments to be performed in parallel in a resource-efficient manner.

A co-ordinated business object approach for supporting tactical level management decisions

The proliferation of data throughout the strategic, tactical and operational areas within many organisations, has provided a need for the decision maker to be presented with structured information that is appropriate for achieving allocated tasks. However, despite this abundance of data, managers at all levels in the organisation commonly encounter a condition of ‘information overload’, that results in a paucity of the correct information. Specifically, this thesis will focus upon the tactical domain within the organisation and the information needs of management who reside at this level. In doing so, it will argue that the link between decision making at the tactical level in the organisation, and low-level transaction processing data, should be through a common object model that used a framework based upon knowledge leveraged from co-ordination theory. In order to achieve this, the Co-ordinated Business Object Model (CBOM) was created. Detailing a two-tier framework, the first tier models data based upon four interactive object models, namely, processes, activities, resources and actors. The second tier analyses the data captured by the four object models, and returns information that can be used to support tactical decision making. In addition, the Co-ordinated Business Object Support System (CBOSS), is a prototype tool that has been developed in order to both support the CBOM implementation, and to also demonstrate the functionality of the CBOM as a modelling approach for supporting tactical management decision making. Containing a graphical user interface, the system’s functionality allows the user to create and explore alternative implementations of an identified tactical level process. In order to validate the CBOM, three verification tests have been completed. The results provide evidence that the CBOM framework helps bridge the gap between low level transaction data, and the information that is used to support tactical level decision making.

The implementation of a functional query language front-end to a relational database system. Available in 2 volumes.

Database systems have a user interface one of the components of which will normally be a query language which is based on a particular data model. Typically data models provide primitives to define, manipulate and query databases. Often these primitives are designed to form self-contained query languages. This thesis describes a prototype implementation of a system which allows users to specify queries against the database in a query language whose primitives are not those provided by the actual model on which the database system is based, but those provided by a different data model. The implementation chosen is the Functional Query Language Front End (FQLFE). This uses the Daplex functional data model and query language. Using FQLFE, users can specify the underlying database (based on the relational model) in terms of Daplex. Queries against this specified view can then be made in Daplex. FQLFE transforms these queries into the query language (Quel) of the underlying target database system (Ingres). The automation of part of the Daplex function definition phase is also described and its implementation discussed.

A study of adaptive load balancing algorithms for distributed systems

With the advent of distributed computer systems with a largely transparent user interface, new questions have arisen regarding the management of such an environment by an operating system. One fertile area of research is that of load balancing, which attempts to improve system performance by redistributing the workload submitted to the system by the users. Early work in this field concentrated on static placement of computational objects to improve performance, given prior knowledge of process behaviour. More recently this has evolved into studying dynamic load balancing with process migration, thus allowing the system to adapt to varying loads. In this thesis, we describe a simulated system which facilitates experimentation with various load balancing algorithms. The system runs under UNIX and provides functions for user processes to communicate through software ports; processes reside on simulated homogeneous processors, connected by a user-specified topology, and a mechanism is included to allow migration of a process from one processor to another. We present the results of a study of adaptive load balancing algorithms, conducted using the aforementioned simulated system, under varying conditions; these results show the relative merits of different approaches to the load balancing problem, and we analyse the trade-offs between them. Following from this study, we present further novel modifications to suggested algorithms, and show their effects on system performance.

Multispectral imaging of the ocular fundus using light emitting diode illumination

We present an imaging system based on light emitting diode (LED) illumination that produces multispectral optical images of the human ocular fundus. It uses a conventional fundus camera equipped with a high power LED light source and a highly sensitive electron-multiplying charge coupled device camera. It is able to take pictures at a series of wavelengths in rapid succession at short exposure times, thereby eliminating the image shift introduced by natural eye movements (saccades). In contrast with snapshot systems the images retain full spatial resolution. The system is not suitable for applications where the full spectral resolution is required as it uses discrete wavebands for illumination. This is not a problem in retinal imaging where the use of selected wavelengths is common. The modular nature of the light source allows new wavelengths to be introduced easily and at low cost. The use of wavelength-specific LEDs as a source is preferable to white light illumination and subsequent filtering of the remitted light as it minimizes the total light exposure of the subject. The system is controlled via a graphical user interface that enables flexible control of intensity, duration, and sequencing of sources in synchrony with the camera. Our initial experiments indicate that the system can acquire multispectral image sequences of the human retina at exposure times of 0.05 s in the range of 500-620 nm with mean signal to noise ratio of 17 dB (min 11, std 4.5), making it suitable for quantitative analysis with application to the diagnosis and screening of eye diseases such as diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration.

A review of research in manufacturing prognostics

With the fast changing global business landscape, manufacturing companies are facing increasing challenge to reduce cost of production, increase equipment utilization and provide innovative products in order to compete with countries with low labour cost and production cost. On of the methods is zero down time. Unfortunately, the current research and industrial solution does not provide user friendly development environment to create “Adaptive microprocessor size with supercomputer performance” solution to reduce downtime. Most of the solutions are PC based computer with off the shelf research software tools which is inadequate for the space constraint manufacturing environment in developed countries. On the other hand, to develop solution for various manufacturing domain will take too much time, there is lacking tools available for rapid or adaptive way of create the solution. Therefore, this research is to understand the needs, trends, gaps of manufacturing prognostics and defines the research potential related to rapid embedded system framework for prognostic.

Experiences in using a contingency factor-based validation methodology for spreadsheet DSS

The use of spreadsheets has become routine in all aspects of business with usage growing across a range of functional areas and a continuing trend towards end user spreadsheet development. However, several studies have raised concerns about the accuracy of spreadsheet models in general, and of end user developed applications in particular, raising the risk element for users. High error rates have been discovered, even though the users/developers were confident that their spreadsheets were correct. The lack of an easy to use, context-sensitive validation methodology has been highlighted as a significant contributor to the problems of accuracy. This paper describes experiences in using a practical, contingency factor-based methodology for validation of spreadsheet-based DSS. Because the end user is often both the system developer and a stakeholder, the contingency factor-based validation methodology may need to be used in more than one way. The methodology can also be extended to encompass other DSS.

Semantic search components:a blueprint for effective query language interfaces

Formulating complex queries is hard, especially when users cannot understand all the data structures of multiple complex knowledge bases. We see a gap between simplistic but user friendly tools and formal query languages. Building on an example comparison search, we propose an approach in which reusable search components take an intermediary role between the user interface and formal query languages.