The economics behind the move to 'localism' in England

This paper explores the economic thinking behind the UK Coalition government’s new framework for achieving local growth and the creation of Local Enterprise Partnerships in England. It does so in the light of recent debates about ‘space-neutral’ and ‘place-based’ policymaking. While the British government states its ambition to achieve greater spatial and industrial balance across England (and by implication the UK), we argue that so far at least there is a mismatch between the ‘rhetoric’ and ‘policies’ of local growth and its limitations. These relate to inconsistencies in the way that the different competing economic ideas in circulation within government have been adopted in practice. As a result, the paper highlights six key disconnects and limitations of the economics behind the move in England to local growth.

Prediction, volatility and complexity of financial markets:a move-based approach

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Application of Naïve Bayesian sequential analysis to primary care optometry

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of circularity, comorbidity, prevalence and presentation variation on the accuracy of differential diagnoses made in optometric primary care using a modified form of naïve Bayesian sequential analysis. No such investigation has ever been reported before. Data were collected for 1422 cases seen over one year. Positive test outcomes were recorded for case history (ethnicity, age, symptoms and ocular and medical history) and clinical signs in relation to each diagnosis. For this reason only positive likelihood ratios were used for this modified form of Bayesian analysis that was carried out with Laplacian correction and Chi-square filtration. Accuracy was expressed as the percentage of cases for which the diagnoses made by the clinician appeared at the top of a list generated by Bayesian analysis. Preliminary analyses were carried out on 10 diagnoses and 15 test outcomes. Accuracy of 100% was achieved in the absence of presentation variation but dropped by 6% when variation existed. Circularity artificially elevated accuracy by 0.5%. Surprisingly, removal of Chi-square filtering increased accuracy by 0.4%. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy was influenced primarily by prevalence followed by presentation variation and comorbidity. Analysis of 35 diagnoses and 105 test outcomes followed. This explored the use of positive likelihood ratios, derived from the case history, to recommend signs to look for. Accuracy of 72% was achieved when all clinical signs were entered. The drop in accuracy, compared to the preliminary analysis, was attributed to the fact that some diagnoses lacked strong diagnostic signs; the accuracy increased by 1% when only recommended signs were entered. Chi-square filtering improved recommended test selection. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy again influenced primarily by prevalence, followed by comorbidity and presentation variation. Future work will explore the use of likelihood ratios based on positive and negative test findings prior to considering naïve Bayesian analysis as a form of artificial intelligence in optometric practice.

Distributed sequential task allocation in foraging swarms

When designing a practical swarm robotics system, self-organized task allocation is key to make best use of resources. Current research in this area focuses on task allocation which is either distributed (tasks must be performed at different locations) or sequential (tasks are complex and must be split into simpler sub-tasks and processed in order). In practice, however, swarms will need to deal with tasks which are both distributed and sequential. In this paper, a classic foraging problem is extended to incorporate both distributed and sequential tasks. The problem is analysed theoretically, absolute limits on performance are derived, and a set of conditions for a successful algorithm are established. It is shown empirically that an algorithm which meets these conditions, by causing emergent cooperation between robots can achieve consistently high performance under a wide range of settings without the need for communication. © 2013 IEEE.

CLAE to move to online format

Editorial: The 2015 BCLA annual conference was another fantastic affair. It was the first time the conference was held in the beautiful city of Liverpool. The venue was great and the programme was excellent. The venue overlooked the River Mersey and many of the hotels were local boutique hotels. I stayed in one which was formerly the offices of White Star Liners—where the RMS Titanic was originally registered. The hotel decor was consistent with its historic significance. The BCLA gala dinner was held in the hugely impressive Anglican Cathedral with entertainment from a Beatles tribute band. That will certainly be a hard act to follow at the next conference in 2017. Brian Tompkins took the reigns as the new BCLA president. Professor Fiona Stapleton was the recipient of the BCLA Gold Medal Award. The winner of the poster competition was Dorota Szczesna-Iskander with a poster entitled ‘Dry Contact lens poor wettability and visual performance’. Second place was Renee Reeder with her poster entitled ‘Abnormal Rosacea as a differential diagnosis in corneal scarring’. And third place was Maria Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia with her poster entitled ‘Dry Effect of the Environmental Conditions on Tear Inflammatory Mediators Concentration in Contact Lens Wearers’. The photographic competition winner was Professor Wolfgang Sickenberger from Jena in Germany. The Editorial Panel of CLAE met at the BCLA conference for their first biannual meeting. The journal metrics were discussed. In terms of number of submissions of new papers CLAE seems to have plateaued after seeing a rapid growth in the number of submissions over the last few years. The increase over the last few years could be attributed to the fact that CLAE was awarded an impact factor for the first time in 2012. This year it seems that impact factors across nearly all ophthalmic related journals has dropped. This could in part be due to the fact that last year was a ‘Research Exercise Framework (REF) year for UK universities, where they are judged on quality of their research output. The next REF is in 2020 so we may see changes nearing that time. Looking at article downloads, there seems to be a continued rise in figures. Currently CLAE attracts around 85,000 downloads per year (this is an increase of around 10,000 per year for the last few years) and the 2015 prediction is 120,000! With this in mind and with other contributing factors too, the BCLA has decided to move to online delivery of CLAE to its members starting from issue 5 of 2015. Some members do like to flick through the pages of a hard copy of the journal so members will still have the option of receiving a hard copy through the post but the default journal delivery method will now be online. The BCLA office will send various alerts and content details to members email addresses. To access CLAE online you will need to log in via the BCLA web page, currently you then click on ‘Resources’ and then under ‘Free and Discounted Publications’ you will see CLAE. This actually takes you to CLAE’s own webpage (www.contactlensjournal.com) but you need to log in via the BCLA web page. The BCLA plans to change these weblinks so that from the BCLA web page you can link to the journal website much more easily and you have the choice of going directly into the general website for CLAE or straight to the current issue. In 2016 you will see an even easier way of accessing CLAE online as the BCLA will launch a CLAE application for mobile devices where the journal can be downloaded as a ‘flick-book’. This is a great way of bringing CLAE into the modern era where people access their information in newer ways. For many the BCLA conference was part of a very busy conference week as it was preceded by the International Association of Contact Lens Educators’ (IACLE) Third World Congress, held in Manchester on the 4 days before the BCLA conference. The first and second IACE World Congresses were held in Waterloo, Canada in 1994 and 2000 respectively and hosted by Professor Des Fonn. Professor Fonn was the recipient of the first ever IACLE lifetime achievement award. The Third IACLE World Congress saw more than 100 contact lens educators and industry representatives from around 30 countries gather in the UK for the four-day event, hosted by The University of Manchester. Delegates gained hands-on experience of innovations in teaching, such as learning delivery systems, the use of iPads in the classroom and for creating ePub content, and augmented and virtual reality technologies. IACLE members around the world also took part via a live online broadcast. The Third IACLE World Congress was made possible by the generous support of Sponsors Alcon, CooperVision and Johnson & Johnson Vision Care., for more information look at the IACLE web page (www.iacle.org).

Projected sequential Gaussian processes:a C++ tool for interpolation of large datasets with heterogeneous noise

Heterogeneous datasets arise naturally in most applications due to the use of a variety of sensors and measuring platforms. Such datasets can be heterogeneous in terms of the error characteristics and sensor models. Treating such data is most naturally accomplished using a Bayesian or model-based geostatistical approach; however, such methods generally scale rather badly with the size of dataset, and require computationally expensive Monte Carlo based inference. Recently within the machine learning and spatial statistics communities many papers have explored the potential of reduced rank representations of the covariance matrix, often referred to as projected or fixed rank approaches. In such methods the covariance function of the posterior process is represented by a reduced rank approximation which is chosen such that there is minimal information loss. In this paper a sequential Bayesian framework for inference in such projected processes is presented. The observations are considered one at a time which avoids the need for high dimensional integrals typically required in a Bayesian approach. A C++ library, gptk, which is part of the INTAMAP web service, is introduced which implements projected, sequential estimation and adds several novel features. In particular the library includes the ability to use a generic observation operator, or sensor model, to permit data fusion. It is also possible to cope with a range of observation error characteristics, including non-Gaussian observation errors. Inference for the covariance parameters is explored, including the impact of the projected process approximation on likelihood profiles. We illustrate the projected sequential method in application to synthetic and real datasets. Limitations and extensions are discussed. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

To move or not to move, that is the question! Body schema and non-action oriented body representations:an fMRI meta-analytic study

Many studies have attempted to identify the different cognitive components of body representation (BR). Due to methodological issues, the data reported in these studies are often confusing. Here we summarize the fMRI data from previous studies and explore the possibility of a neural segregation between BR supporting actions (body-schema, BS) or not (non-oriented-to-action-body-representation, NA). We performed a general activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis of 59 fMRI experiments and two individual meta-analyses to identify the neural substrates of different BR. Body processing involves a wide network of areas in occipital, parietal, frontal and temporal lobes. NA selectively activates the somatosensory primary cortex and the supramarginal gyrus. BS involves the primary motor area and the right extrastriate body area. Our data suggest that motor information and recognition of body parts are fundamental to build BS. Instead, sensory information and processing of the egocentric perspective are more important for NA. In conclusion, our results strongly support the idea that different and segregated neural substrates are involved in body representations orient or not to actions.