How unlucky is 25-sigma?

Purpose - To identify the likelihood of a 25-standard deviation occurring in stock prices over several successive days, in the light of comments by David Viniar, chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs.. Design/methodology/approach - Assumes a bell-curve of market losses and graphs the probability of an event relative to the number of deviations. Calculates using MATLAB for sigmas over 7. Considers whether the losses of US investment banks in 2008 were the result of bad luck or of incompetence. Findings - Finds that the probability of a 25-sigma event is every 100,000 +130 decimal points years. Practical implications - Argues that bad luck is usually associated with incompetence, and investors need not choose between them. Originality/value - Presents the mathematical absurdity of a finance officer's statement, and its implications.

Consumer trial, continuous use, and economic benefits of a retail service innovation:the case of the personal shopping assistant

Service innovations in retailing have the potential to benefit consumers as well as retailers. This research models key factors associated with the trial and continuous use of a specific self-service technology (SST), the personal shopping assistant (PSA), and estimates retailer benefits from implementing that innovation. Based on theoretical insights from prior SST studies, diffusion of innovation literature, and the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study develops specific hypotheses and tests them on a sample of 104 actual users of the PSA and 345 nonusers who shopped at the retail store offering the PSA device. Results indicate that factors affecting initial trial are different from those affecting continuous use. More specifically, consumers' trust toward the retailer, novelty seeking, and market mavenism are positively related to trial, while technology anxiety hinders the likelihood of trying the PSA. Perceived ease of use of the device positively impacts continuous use while consumers' need for interaction in shopping environments reduces the likelihood of continuous use. Importantly, there is evidence on retailer benefits from introducing the innovation since consumers using the PSA tend to spend more during each shopping trip. However, given the high costs of technology, the payback period for recovery of investments in innovation depends largely upon continued use of the innovation by consumers. Important implications are provided for retailers considering investments in new in-store service innovations. Incorporation of technology within physical stores affords opportunities for the retailer to reduce costs, while enhancing service provided to consumers. Therefore, service innovations in retailing have the potential to benefit consumers as well as retailers. This research models key factors associated with the trial and continuous use of a specific SST in the retail context, the PSA, and estimates retailer benefits from implementing that innovation. In so doing, the study contributes to the nascent area of research on SSTs in the retail sector. Based on theoretical insights from prior SST studies, diffusion of innovation literature, and the TAM, this study develops specific hypotheses regarding the (1) antecedent effects of technological anxiety, novelty seeking, market mavenism, and trust in the retailer on trial of the service innovation; (2) the effects of ease of use, perceived waiting time, and need for interaction on continuous use of the innovation; and (3) the effect of use of innovation on consumer spending at the store. The hypotheses were tested on a sample of 104 actual users of the PSA and 345 nonusers who shopped at the retail store offering the PSA device, one of the early adopters of PSA in Germany. Data were analyzed using logistic regression (antecedents of trial), multiple regression (antecedents of continuous use), and propensity score matching (assessing retailer benefits). Results indicate that factors affecting initial trial are different from those affecting continuous use. More specifically, consumers' trust toward the retailer, novelty seeking, and market mavenism are positively related to trial, while technology anxiety hinders the likelihood of trying the PSA. Perceived ease of use of the device positively impacts continuous use, while consumers' need for interaction in shopping environments reduces the likelihood of continuous use. Importantly, there is evidence on retailer benefits from introducing the innovation since consumers using the PSA tend to spend more during each shopping trip. However, given the high costs of technology, the payback period for recovery of investments in innovation depends largely upon continued use of the innovation by consumers. Important implications are provided for retailers considering investments in new in-store service innovations. The study contributes to the literature through its (1) simultaneous examination of antecedents of trial and continuous usage of a specific SST, (2) the demonstration of economic benefits of SST introduction for the retailer, and (3) contribution to the stream of research on service innovation, as against product innovation.

Towards a definition of PLM-integrated dimensional measurement

Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) enables knowledge about products to be captured and reused. Since dimensional measurement is used to determine the size and shape of the products about which PLM is centered, we contend that it is an important process to integrate. Building on emerging industry-accepted standards, a framework was developed in an effort to define what integrating dimensional measurement with PLM involves. Following a survey of the state-of-the-art against this framework and a critical review, technology gaps are identified, and key challenges and research priorities are highlighted. © 2013 The Authors.

Linking design and manufacturing domains via web-based and enterprise integration technologies

The manufacturing industry faces many challenges such as reducing time-to-market and cutting costs. In order to meet these increasing demands, effective methods are need to support the early product development stages by bridging the gap of communicating early design ideas and the evaluation of manufacturing performance. This paper introduces methods of linking design and manufacturing domains using disparate technologies. The combined technologies include knowledge management supporting for product lifecycle management systems, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, aggregate process planning systems, workflow management and data exchange formats. A case study has been used to demonstrate the use of these technologies, illustrated by adding manufacturing knowledge to generate alternative early process plan which are in turn used by an ERP system to obtain and optimise a rough-cut capacity plan. Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Salespersons as internal knowledge brokers and new products selling:discovering the link to genetic makeup

Managers increasingly realize the importance of involving the sales force in new product development. However, despite recent progress, research on the specific role of the sales force in product innovation-related activities remains scarce. In particular, the importance of a salespersons’ internal knowledge brokering has been neglected. This study develops and empirically validates the concept of internal knowledge brokering behavior and its effect on selling new products and developing new business, and explores whether a salesperson’s internal brokering qualities are determined by biological traits. The findings reveal that salespeople with the DRD2 A1 gene variant engage at significant lower levels of internal knowledge-brokering behavior than salespeople without this gene variant, and as a result are less likely to engage effectively in new product selling. The DRD4 gene variant had no effect on internal knowledge brokering. Management and future research implications are discussed.

Frontline employees’ innovative service behavior as key to customer loyalty:insights into FLEs’ resource gain spiral

Many service firms require frontline service employees (FLEs) to follow routines and standardized operating procedures during the service encounter, to deliver consistently high service standards. However, to create superior, pleasurable experiences for customers, featuring both helpful services and novel approaches to meeting their needs, firms in various sectors also have begun to encourage FLEs to engage in more innovative service behaviors. This study therefore investigates a new and complementary route to customer loyalty, beyond the conventional service-profit chain, that moves through FLEs' innovative service behavior. Drawing on conservation of resources (COR) theory, this study introduces a resource gain spiral at the service encounter, which runs from FLEs' emotional job engagement to innovative service behavior, and then leads to customer delight and finally customer loyalty. In accordance with COR theory, the proposed model also includes factors that might hinder (customer aggression, underemployment) or foster (colleague support, supervisor support) FLEs' resource gain spiral. A multilevel analysis of a large-scale, dyadic data set that contains responses from both FLEs and customers in multiple industries strongly supports the proposed resource gain spiral as a complementary route to customer loyalty. The positive emotional job engagement-innovative service behavior relationship is undermined by customer aggression and underemployment, as hypothesized. Surprisingly though, and contrary to the hypotheses, colleague and supervisor support do not seem to foster FLEs' resource gain spiral. Instead, colleague support weakens the engagement-innovative service behavior relationship, and supervisor support does not affect it. These results indicate that if FLEs can solicit resources from other sources, they may not need to invest as many of their individual resources. In particular, colleague support even appears to serve as a substitute for FLEs' individual resource investments in the resource gain spiral.

Motivations for servitization:the impact of product complexity

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the commonalities and differences in manufacturers’ motivations to servitise. Design/methodology/approach – UK study based on interviews with 40 managers in 25 companies in 12 sectors. Using the concept of product complexity, sectors were grouped using the Complex Products and Systems (CoPS) typology: non-complex products, complex products and systems. Findings – Motivations to servitise were categorised as competitive, demand based (i.e. derived from the customer) or economic. Motivations to servitise vary according to product complexity, although cost savings and improved service quality appear important demand-based motivations for all manufacturers. Non-complex product manufacturers also focus on services to help product differentiation. For CoPS manufacturers, both risk reduction and developing a new revenue stream were important motivations. For uniquely complex product manufacturers, stabilising revenue and increased profitability were strong motivations. For uniquely systems manufacturers, customers sought business transformation, whilst new service business models were also identified. Research limitations/implications – Using the CoPS typology, this study delineates motivations to servitise by sector. The findings show varying motivations to servitise as product complexity increases, although some motivational commonality existed across all groups. Manufacturers may have products of differing complexity within their portfolio. To overcome this limitation the unit of analysis was the strategic business unit. Practical implications – Managers can reflect on and benchmark their motivation for, and opportunities from, servitisation, by considering product complexity. Originality/value – The first study to categorise servitisation motivations by product complexity. Identifying that some customers of systems manufacturers seek business transformation through outsourcing.

Evaluating approaches to product design and sourcing decisions in multinational companies

Product design and sourcing decisions are among the most difficult and important of all decisions facing multinational manufacturing companies, yet associated decision support and evaluation systems tend to be myopic in nature. Design for manufacture and assembly techniques, for example, generally focuses on manufacturing capability and ignores capacity although both should be considered. Similarly, most modelling and evaluation tools available to examine the performance of various solution and improvement techniques have a narrower scope than desired. A unique collaboration, funded by the US National Science Foundation, between researchers in the USA and the UK currently addresses these problems. This paper describes a technique known as Design For the Existing Environment (DFEE) and an holistic evaluation system based on enterprise simulation that was used to demonstrate the business benefits of DFEE applied in a simple product development and manufacturing case study. A project that will extend these techniques to evaluate global product sourcing strategies is described along with the practical difficulties of building an enterprise simulation on the scale and detail required.

Improving returnable transport equipment management with an autonomous approach

Challenges of returnable transport equipment (RTE) management continue to heighten as the popularity of their usage magnifies. Logistics companies are investigating the implementation of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology to alleviate problems such as loss prevention and stock reduction. However, the research within this field is limited and fails to fully explore with depth, the wider network improvements that can be made to optimize the supply chain through efficient RTE management. This paper, investigates the nature of RTE network management building on current research and practices, filling a gap in the literature, through the investigation of a product-centric approach where the paradigms of “intelligent products” and “autonomous objects” are explored. A network optimizing approach with RTE management is explored, encouraging advanced research development of the RTE paradigm to align academic research with problematic areas in industry. Further research continues with the development of an agent-based software system, ready for application to a real-case study distribution network, producing quantitative results for further analysis. This is pivotal on the endeavor to developing agile support systems, fully utilizing an information-centric environment and encouraging RTE to be viewed as critical network optimizing tools rather than costly waste.

Product variety and just-in-time conflict and challenge

This paper addresses the question of how just-in-time can be implemented within high variety manufacture. To illustrate some of the principles in relation to the high variety-low volume situation the case of a computer manufacturer is considered in detail. For contrast the paper also considers the case of the manufacture of highly-configured four wheel drive vehicles where both variety and volumes are high. The most important issue in high variety/low volume production is that JIT operation should be seen in terms of the tactical holding of inventory in upstream buffers within the supply chain so that value is not added to work in progress prematurely. Tactical buffers ensure that service levels are maintained and the risk of stock-outs is minimized. In high variety/high volume production schedule integrity is the key factor, unreliable schedules being a major inhibitor to the introduction of JIT.

Reliability management of machine tool technology: a case study of current practice

Considerable attention has been given in the literature to identifying and describing the effective elements which positively affect the improvement of product reliability. These have been perceived by many as the 'state of the art' in the manufacturing industry. The applicability, diffusion and effectiveness of such methods and philosophies, as a means of systematically improving the reliability of a product, come in the main from case studies and single and infra-industry empirical studies. These studies have both been carried out within the wider context of quality assurance and management, and taking reliability as a discipline in its own right. However, it is somewhat of a surprise that there are no recently published findings or research studies on the adoption of these methods by the machine tool industry. This may lead one to construct several hypothesised paradigms: (a) that machine tool manufacturers compared to other industries, are slow to respond to propositions given in the literature by theorists or (b) this may indicate that a large proportion of the manufacturers make little use of the reliability improvement techniques as described in the literature, with the overall perception that they will not lead to any significant improvements? On the other hand, it is evident that hypothetical verification of the operational and engineering methods of reliability achievement and improvement adopted in the machine tool industry is less widely researched. Therefore, research into this area is needed in order to explore the 'state of the art' practice in the machine tool industry. This is in terms of the status, structure and activities of the operation of the reliability function. This paper outlines a research programme being conducted with the co-operation of a leading machine tool manufacturer, whose UK manufacturing plant produces in the main Vertical Machining Centres (VMCs) and is continuously undergoing incremental transitions in product reliability improvement.

Valuing transferred machine tool technology:Relating value to product attributes and preferences of acquirers

The value of technology and the appropriate form of transfer arrangement are important questions to be resolved when transferring technology between Western manufacturing firms and partners in industrialising and developing countries. This article reports on surveys carried out in the machine tool industries in the UK and China to establish the differences and similarities between owners and acquirers of technology regarding the relative importance of the factors they evaluate, and the assessments they make, when considering a technology transfer. It also outlines the development of a framework for technology valuation. The survey results indicate that the value of product technology is related to superior technical performance, especially on reliability and functionality, and the prospects of premium prices and increased sales of the technology transfer based machine tools. Access to markets is the main objective of UK companies, while Chinese companies are concerned about improving their technological capability. There are significant risks, especially related to performance in the market, and while owners and acquirers have benefited in the short term, the long term collaboration required for strategic benefits has been difficult to achieve because of the different priorities of the owners and the acquirers.

Introduction: improving manufacturing performance through technology diffusion, implementation and management

The role of technology management in achieving improved manufacturing performance has been receiving increased attention as enterprises are becoming more exposed to competition from around the world. In the modern market for manufactured goods the demand is now for more product variety, better quality, shorter delivery and greater flexibility, while the financial and environmental cost of resources has become an urgent concern to manufacturing managers. This issue of the International Journal of Technology Management addresses the question of how the diffusion, implementation and management of technology can improve the performance of manufacturing industries. The authors come from a large number of different countries and their contributions cover a wide range of topics within this general theme. Some papers are conceptual, others report on research carried out in a range of different industries including steel production, iron founding, electronics, robotics, machinery, precision engineering, metal working and motor manufacture. In some cases they describe situations in specific countries. Several are based on presentations made at the UK Operations Management Association's Sixth International Conference held at Aston University at which the conference theme was 'Achieving Competitive Edge: Getting Ahead Through Technology and People'. The first two papers deal with questions of advanced manufacturing technology implementation and management. Firstly Beatty describes a three year longitudinal field study carried out in ten Canadian manufacturing companies using CADICAM and CIM systems. Her findings relate to speed of implementation, choice of system type, the role of individuals in implementation, organization and job design. This is followed by a paper by Bessant in which he argues that a more a strategic approach should be taken towards the management of technology in the 1990s and beyond. Also considered in this paper are the capabilities necessary in order to deploy advanced manufacturing technology as a strategic resource and the way such capabilities might be developed within the firm. These two papers, which deal largely with the implementation of hardware, are supplemented by Samson and Sohal's contribution in which they argue that a much wider perspective should be adopted based on a new approach to manufacturing strategy formulation. Technology transfer is the topic of the following two papers. Pohlen again takes the case of advanced manufacturing technology and reports on his research which considers the factors contributing to successful realisation of AMT transfer. The paper by Lee then provides a more detailed account of technology transfer in the foundry industry. Using a case study based on a firm which has implemented a number of transferred innovations a model is illustrated in which the 'performance gap' can be identified and closed. The diffusion of technology is addressed in the next two papers. In the first of these, by Lowe and Sim, the managerial technologies of 'Just in Time' and 'Manufacturing Resource Planning' (or MRP 11) are examined. A study is described from which a number of factors are found to influence the adoption process including, rate of diffusion and size. Dahlin then considers the case of a specific item of hardware technology, the industrial robot. Her paper reviews the history of robot diffusion since the early 1960s and then tries to predict how the industry will develop in the future. The following two papers deal with the future of manufacturing in a more general sense. The future implementation of advanced manufacturing technology is the subject explored by de Haan and Peters who describe the results of their Dutch Delphi forecasting study conducted among a panel of experts including scientists, consultants, users and suppliers of AMT. Busby and Fan then consider a type of organisational model, 'the extended manufacturing enterprise', which would represent a distinct alternative pure market-led and command structures by exploiting the shared knowledge of suppliers and customers. The three country-based papers consider some strategic issues relating manufacturing technology. In a paper based on investigations conducted in China He, Liff and Steward report their findings from strategy analyses carried out in the steel and watch industries with a view to assessing technology needs and organizational change requirements. This is followed by Tang and Nam's paper which examines the case of machinery industry in Korea and its emerging importance as a key sector in the Korean economy. In his paper which focuses on Venezuela, Ernst then considers the particular problem of how this country can address the problem of falling oil revenues. He sees manufacturing as being an important contributor to Venezuela's future economy and proposes a means whereby government and private enterprise can co-operate in development of the manufacturing sector. The last six papers all deal with specific topics relating to the management manufacturing. Firstly Youssef looks at the question of manufacturing flexibility, introducing and testing a conceptual model that relates computer based technologies flexibility. Dangerfield's paper which follows is based on research conducted in the steel industry. He considers the question of scale and proposes a modelling approach determining the plant configuration necessary to meet market demand. Engstrom presents the results of a detailed investigation into the need for reorganising material flow where group assembly of products has been adopted. Sherwood, Guerrier and Dale then report the findings of a study into the effectiveness of Quality Circle implementation. Stillwagon and Burns, consider how manufacturing competitiveness can be improved individual firms by describing how the application of 'human performance engineering' can be used to motivate individual performance as well as to integrate organizational goals. Finally Sohal, Lewis and Samson describe, using a case study example, how just-in-time control can be applied within the context of computer numerically controlled flexible machining lines. The papers in this issue of the International Journal of Technology Management cover a wide range of topics relating to the general question of improving manufacturing performance through the dissemination, implementation and management of technology. Although they differ markedly in content and approach, they have the collective aim addressing the concepts, principles and practices which provide a better understanding the technology of manufacturing and assist in achieving and maintaining a competitive edge.

On the adoption decision and the intensity of use of complementary innovations: The intra firm diffusion of management practices across UK establishments

This paper contributes to the literature on the intra-firm diffusion of innovations by investigating the factors that affect the firm’s decision to adopt and use sets of complementary innovations. We define complementary innovations those innovations whose joint use generates super additive gains, i.e. the gain from the joint adoption is higher than the sum of the gains derived from the adoption of each innovation in isolation. From a theoretical perspective, we present a simple decision model, whereby the firm decides ‘whether’ and ‘how much’ to invest in each of the innovations under investigation based upon the expected profit gain from each possible combination of adoption and use. The model shows how the extent of complementarity among the innovations can affect the firm’s profit gains and therefore the likelihood that the firm will adopt these innovations jointly, rather than individually. From an empirical perspective, we focus on four sets of management practices, namely operating (OMP), monitoring (MMP), targets (TMP) and incentives (IMP) management practices. We show that these sets of practices, although to a different extent, are complementary to each other. Then, we construct a synthetic indicator of the depth of their use. The resulting intra-firm index is built to reflect not only the number of practices adopted but also the depth of their individual use and the extent of their complementarity. The empirical testing of the decision model is carried out using the evidence from the adoption behaviour of a sample of 1,238 UK establishments present in the 2004 Workplace Employment Relations Survey (WERS). Our empirical results show that the intra-firm profitability based model is a good model in that it can explain more of the variability of joint adoption than models based upon the variability of adoption and use of individual practices. We also investigate whether a number of firm specific and market characteristics by affecting the size of the gains (which the joint adoption of innovations can generate) may drive the intensity of use of the four innovations. We find that establishment size, whether foreign owned, whether exposed to an international market and the degree of homogeneity of the final product are important determinants of the intensity of the joint adoption of the four innovations. Most importantly, our results point out that the factors that the economics of innovation literature has been showing to affect the intensity of use of a technological innovation do also affect the intensity of use of sets of innovative management practices. However, they can explain only a small part of the diversity of their joint adoption use by the firms in the sample.