Aggregating preference ranking with fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis

Selecting the best alternative in a group decision making is a subject of many recent studies. The most popular method proposed for ranking the alternatives is based on the distance of each alternative to the ideal alternative. The ideal alternative may never exist; hence the ranking results are biased to the ideal point. The main aim in this study is to calculate a fuzzy ideal point that is more realistic to the crisp ideal point. On the other hand, recently Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to find the optimum weights for ranking the alternatives. This paper proposes a four stage approach based on DEA in the Fuzzy environment to aggregate preference rankings. An application of preferential voting system shows how the new model can be applied to rank a set of alternatives. Other two examples indicate the priority of the proposed method compared to the some other suggested methods.

Merging and ranking answers in the semantic web:the wisdom of crowds

In this paper we propose algorithms for combining and ranking answers from distributed heterogeneous data sources in the context of a multi-ontology Question Answering task. Our proposal includes a merging algorithm that aggregates, combines and filters ontology-based search results and three different ranking algorithms that sort the final answers according to different criteria such as popularity, confidence and semantic interpretation of results. An experimental evaluation on a large scale corpus indicates improvements in the quality of the search results with respect to a scenario where the merging and ranking algorithms were not applied. These collective methods for merging and ranking allow to answer questions that are distributed across ontologies, while at the same time, they can filter irrelevant answers, fuse similar answers together, and elicit the most accurate answer(s) to a question.

A probabilistic spellcher

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Developing a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental-health clinical risk expertise

This paper explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool [1] is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. This paper details how the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. These semantics are formalised by a detailed specification for an XML structure used to represent the expertise. The component parts were then mapped to equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

A paradigm sensitive perspective on the ranking of accounting journals:a web-based survey approach

This paper reports the results of a web-based study of the perceptions of accounting journals in Australasia. Journal ranking studies have generally adopted citation techniques or used academics’ perceptions as the basis for assessing journal quality. Our research contributes to the existing literature by conducting a survey of academics in Australasia using a web-based instrument. The analysis indicates that the perceptions of the so-called “elite” accounting journals have become unsettled. The research highlights the emergence of more recent, alternative paradigm journals (CPA and AAAJ) as both highly ranking.

Probabilistic synchronisation of pinning control

This paper is concerned with synchronization of complex stochastic dynamical networks in the presence of noise and functional uncertainty. A probabilistic control method for adaptive synchronization is presented. All required probabilistic models of the network are assumed to be unknown therefore estimated to be dependent on the connectivity strength, the state and control values. Robustness of the probabilistic controller is proved via the Liapunov method. Furthermore, based on the residual error of the network states we introduce the definition of stochastic pinning controllability. A coupled map lattice with spatiotemporal chaos is taken as an example to illustrate all theoretical developments. The theoretical derivation is complemented by its validation on two representative examples.

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained.

Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

A probabilistic indirect adaptive control for systems with input-dependent noise

A probabilistic indirect adaptive controller is proposed for the general nonlinear multivariate class of discrete time system. The proposed probabilistic framework incorporates input–dependent noise prediction parameters in the derivation of the optimal control law. Moreover, because noise can be nonstationary in practice, the proposed adaptive control algorithm provides an elegant method for estimating and tracking the noise. For illustration purposes, the developed method is applied to the affine class of nonlinear multivariate discrete time systems and the desired result is obtained: the optimal control law is determined by solving a cubic equation and the distribution of the tracking error is shown to be Gaussian with zero mean. The efficiency of the proposed scheme is demonstrated numerically through the simulation of an affine nonlinear system.

Fully probabilistic control design in an adaptive critic framework

Optimal stochastic controller pushes the closed-loop behavior as close as possible to the desired one. The fully probabilistic design (FPD) uses probabilistic description of the desired closed loop and minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence of the closed-loop description to the desired one. Practical exploitation of the fully probabilistic design control theory continues to be hindered by the computational complexities involved in numerically solving the associated stochastic dynamic programming problem. In particular very hard multivariate integration and an approximate interpolation of the involved multivariate functions. This paper proposes a new fully probabilistic contro algorithm that uses the adaptive critic methods to circumvent the need for explicitly evaluating the optimal value function, thereby dramatically reducing computational requirements. This is a main contribution of this short paper.

Probabilistic multiple model neural network based leak detection system:experimental study

This paper presents an effective decision making system for leak detection based on multiple generalized linear models and clustering techniques. The training data for the proposed decision system is obtained by setting up an experimental pipeline fully operational distribution system. The system is also equipped with data logging for three variables; namely, inlet pressure, outlet pressure, and outlet flow. The experimental setup is designed such that multi-operational conditions of the distribution system, including multi pressure and multi flow can be obtained. We then statistically tested and showed that pressure and flow variables can be used as signature of leak under the designed multi-operational conditions. It is then shown that the detection of leakages based on the training and testing of the proposed multi model decision system with pre data clustering, under multi operational conditions produces better recognition rates in comparison to the training based on the single model approach. This decision system is then equipped with the estimation of confidence limits and a method is proposed for using these confidence limits for obtaining more robust leakage recognition results.

Driving licensing renewal policy using neural network-based probabilistic decision support system

This paper investigates neural network-based probabilistic decision support system to assess drivers' knowledge for the objective of developing a renewal policy of driving licences. The probabilistic model correlates drivers' demographic data to their results in a simulated written driving exam (SWDE). The probabilistic decision support system classifies drivers' into two groups of passing and failing a SWDE. Knowledge assessment of drivers within a probabilistic framework allows quantifying and incorporating uncertainty information into the decision-making system. The results obtained in a Jordanian case study indicate that the performance of the probabilistic decision support systems is more reliable than conventional deterministic decision support systems. Implications of the proposed probabilistic decision support systems on the renewing of the driving licences decision and the possibility of including extra assessment methods are discussed.

Probabilistic DHP adaptive critic for nonlinear stochastic control systems

Following the recently developed algorithms for fully probabilistic control design for general dynamic stochastic systems (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996), this paper presents the solution to the probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP) adaptive critic method (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011) and randomized control algorithm for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems. The purpose of the randomized control input design is to make the joint probability density function of the closed loop system as close as possible to a predetermined ideal joint probability density function. This paper completes the previous work (Herzallah & Kárnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996) by formulating and solving the fully probabilistic control design problem on the more general case of nonlinear stochastic discrete time systems. A simulated example is used to demonstrate the use of the algorithm and encouraging results have been obtained.

Self-adaptive probabilistic roadmap generation for intelligent virtual agents

Agents inhabiting large scale environments are faced with the problem of generating maps by which they can navigate. One solution to this problem is to use probabilistic roadmaps which rely on selecting and connecting a set of points that describe the interconnectivity of free space. However, the time required to generate these maps can be prohibitive, and agents do not typically know the environment in advance. In this paper we show that the optimal combination of different point selection methods used to create the map is dependent on the environment, no point selection method dominates. This motivates a novel self-adaptive approach for an agent to combine several point selection methods. The success rate of our approach is comparable to the state of the art and the generation cost is substantially reduced. Self-adaptation therefore enables a more efficient use of the agent's resources. Results are presented for both a set of archetypal scenarios and large scale virtual environments based in Second Life, representing real locations in London.